Tuesday August 30, 2011
By CHOONG EN HAN
han@thestar.com.my
Higher requirements for nursing course affect student intake
KUALA LUMPUR: Masterskill Education Group Bhd (MEGB) took a beating yesterday, with its share price losing 21 sen or 13.7% to close at RM1.32 after reporting a less than stellar second-quarter results last Friday. The stock has been on continuous downtrend since it listed at RM3.80 in May 2010.
Bursa Malaysia closed after the morning session yesterday owing to the Hari Raya and National Day holidays.
Research houses also downgraded the prospects of Masterskill Education Group Bhd, following its weak second-quarter results, which were attributed to lower student enrolments arising from the higher nursing minimum entry requirements and the change in the timing for public universities' intake.
In a note yesterday, CIMB Research said that it was taken aback by the impact of the higher entry requirements for the nursing diploma on net student intake from Janunary to June 2011.
“Earlier this year, the Malaysian Nursing Board raised the entry requirements from three credits to five credits, which affected student numbers slightly in the first quarter of 2011,” it said, adding that second -quarter student numbers were expected to recover but the student intake trend was weaker during MEGB's enrolment drive in the past three to four months.
It said that in the medium term, student intake prospects were unexciting and margins would be under pressure.
The National Higher Education Fund Corp's recent loan scheme revision was viewed as negative given that Masterskill's average diploma course fee is RM52,000, and the new policy is enforced industry-wide and is expected to be more detrimental to small colleges that are highly dependent on nursing diploma students.
For the health sciences segment, loan allocation per student for all health science-related diploma courses is reduced from RM60,000 to RM45,000 and applies to all new and existing courses for all campuses and college locations.
“Student growth for the next two to three years does not look as exciting as before. We previously assumed a 10%-13% annual student population growth for financial year 2011 to 2013. This no longer looks achievable. We are now looking at growth of 8%-7% annually,” it said.
CIMB Research downgraded the group to “neutral” with a target price of RM1.71 from RM3.48 previously, saying that changes in industry-wide policies since Masterskill's listing have buffeted the market leader.
It said prospects for strong growth of student numbers for its existing campuses were unexciting although it still held a long-term positive view on the group's expansion into non-healthcare courses, new university campus and move into degree and medical degree courses.
To be noted is the fact that CIMB Investment Bank Bhd was the principal adviser, retail underwriter as well as the joint global co-ordinator and joint bookrunners together with Goldman Sachs for the group's initial public offering.
Meanwhile, HwangDBS Vickers Research lowered its new student intake assumptions to 4,000 from 6,500 in 2011, 5,100 from 7,300 in 2012 and 5,700 from 8,100 in 2013, with its year-to-date enrolment rate suggesting MEGB could struggle to meet its expectations which were already lowered amid tough business environment.
The research house had also downgraded the stock to “fully valued” from “buy” previously with a lower target price of RM1.20 versus RM2.50 previously.
News had also resurfaced that private equity firm Crescent Point Investment Holdings Ltd, founded by former Morgan Stanley bankers, may sell its 21.5% stake in MEGB.
In 2009, it was speculated that the firm was looking to divest its 65% stake then in South-East Asia's largest nursing and healthcare college operator for a reported value of between US$200mil and US$250mil. However, the report was refuted by the Singapore-based firm's partner and managing director Richard Scanlon then.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Friday, August 26, 2011
商業周刊-封面摘要-金融海嘯會捲土重來嗎？
Q1.這次全球股災主因是什麼？
A：這次股災發生的主因，在於政府或中央銀行刺激經濟無力，引起投資人對經濟悲觀。對比歷次的股災中，和目前情況最接近的就是日本在90年代的大泡沫結束後的大崩盤。
根據淡江大學產業經濟系教授莊孟翰的研究，1989年時日本住宅用地最高價-東京千代田區，1200萬日元/平方公尺，當時匯價約9萬美元/平方公尺（約新臺幣每坪981.8萬元）。將近一千萬元新台幣才買到一坪土地，在這樣瘋狂的泡沫行情下，終於導致日後日本經濟重創。
同年12月底，東京股市日經二二五指數收盤3萬8915點收盤之新高紀錄，但隨後房市泡沫，日本陷入長達22年經濟蕭條，從1991年到至2005年，日本六大城市住宅用地價格平均下跌六成五，商用土地價格暴跌八成七，而日經二二五指數截至今年8月19日收盤指數為8719點。
但日本經濟的走勢是否是唯一可能劇本？答案也不盡然，因為以香港1997年房地產泡沫後來看，莊孟翰研究後發現，1997年前六年內香港房地產及相關產業之增加值占香港GDP之四成，光是房地產泡沫和股市泡沫製造了七兆港元的「額外財富」，但之後房價一路下跌，至2003年SARS期間，房價跌幅從高點往下算已經損失六成五，房地產和股市總市值共損失約八兆港元，比同期香港的生產總值還多。
歷經金融海嘯後，今年上半年也曾達到2萬3000點附近，截至八月十九日收盤在1萬9399點，依照高於當初1997年時的高點。
日本、香港是典型在泡沫後股市重挫六成以上，房地產也大幅修正，但結局是香港有再起，日本則趴地不起；尤其在政府不斷刺激下仍然找不到藥方，以這次歐美在持續貨幣寬鬆下振興經濟卻相當有限，這正是此次股災要特別提防的地方。
Q2.本次股市災難與過去有何不同?
A：對比過去股災發生經驗，本次股災有兩點不同。
首先，利率條件不同：過去股災發生原因多半與高利率有關，不論是1987年惡性通膨、1998年亞洲金融風暴、2000年科技泡沫、2008年金融海嘯，當時的利率水平都並非眼前低利率；上述幾次股災發生前的利率水準最低也有5.25%，最高還曾高達17%。但美國聯準會已經宣布近乎零的利率政策將維持維持兩年，最快要到2013年中才有可能調整。
其次，企業庫存問題不嚴重。對比1990年、2000年、2008年三次股災發生前的企業界表現，都出現庫存甚高情況。根據美國聯準會統計，三次企業庫存銷售比(Inventory to Sales Ratio)都起碼高達1.44以上，數據越高表示庫存越多，銷售越少，但眼前美國企業庫存銷售比才1.28，接近2006當時水準，而今年第一季景氣最佳時，庫存銷售比也僅1.25，換言之並非庫存壓力拖垮經濟。
◎倒閉和裁員潮會出現嗎？
◎投資全被套牢怎麼辦？
◎矽谷最令人害怕的人 專利軍火頭子
完整精采內文請見《商業周刊》1240期，全省各大便利商店同步販售
YTL Corp net profit soars in Q4
Friday August 26, 2011
Cement business, offshore property development shine
PETALING JAYA: YTL Corp Bhd, whose interests range from construction and property to information and communications technology solutions, posted a 196.79% surge in net profit to RM304.01mil for the fourth quarter ended June 30 compared with the corresponding quarter a year ago.
This was achieved on better performance of its cement business and offshore property development activities.
Revenue for the quarter was 14.94% higher at RM5.42bil compared with the same quarter a year ago. For the full year, the company's net profit rose 23.62% to RM1.06bil on revenue that gained 12.51% to RM18.57bil.
Yeoh: ‘The group’s reorganisation is now pending completion.’
Group managing director Tan Sri Francis Yeoh Sock Ping said in a statement that net profit and revenue was primarily driven by the power generation, water and cement operations as well as overseas property development projects.
“In July this year, we entered into an agreement with Japan's Marubeni Corp, a key player in the international utilities market, with a view of enabling Marubeni to co-invest with us via the holding company for the group's 35% equity investment in PT Jawa Power, which owns a 1,220MW power station in Indonesia,” he said.
Yeoh added that the partnership formed the basis of cooperation on potential investments and future opportunities in the global utilities industry.
“During the year under review, we continued to make progress on the reorganisation of the group's property development assets and companies which was approved by shareholders this month and is now pending completion,” he said.
Yeoh said the reorganisation would streamline operations by housing the group's property development assets and projects within the same division to leverage on operational and developmental efficiencies and synergies.
YTL Cement Bhd posted a 19.08% rise in net profit to RM80.10mil and a 28.52% gain in revenue to RM635.04mil for the fourth quarter ended June 30 compared with the same period a year ago on higher demand from the construction industry as well as improved performance of overseas operations.
YTL Power International Bhd posted a 1.41% decline in net profit to RM451.56mil on a 13.62% rise in revenue of RM4.26bil mainly from contributions from foreign operations including in power generation, water and sewerage services as well as merchant multi-utility businesses and communications.
YTL Land and Development Bhd posted a 154.36% jump in net profit to RM9.76mil owing to higher other operating income and lower operating expenses.
However, revenue tumbled 76.59% to RM8.80mil on lower revenue recognition from both construction and property development segments due to completion of certain projects during the period under review and the timing difference of new project launches.
YTL E-Solutions Bhd's net profit advanced 98.69% to RM6.89mil mainly due to higher fee income earned from WiMAX spectrum on a 135.45% jump in revenue to RM22.44mil.
Cement business, offshore property development shine
PETALING JAYA: YTL Corp Bhd, whose interests range from construction and property to information and communications technology solutions, posted a 196.79% surge in net profit to RM304.01mil for the fourth quarter ended June 30 compared with the corresponding quarter a year ago.
This was achieved on better performance of its cement business and offshore property development activities.
Revenue for the quarter was 14.94% higher at RM5.42bil compared with the same quarter a year ago. For the full year, the company's net profit rose 23.62% to RM1.06bil on revenue that gained 12.51% to RM18.57bil.
Yeoh: ‘The group’s reorganisation is now pending completion.’
Group managing director Tan Sri Francis Yeoh Sock Ping said in a statement that net profit and revenue was primarily driven by the power generation, water and cement operations as well as overseas property development projects.
“In July this year, we entered into an agreement with Japan's Marubeni Corp, a key player in the international utilities market, with a view of enabling Marubeni to co-invest with us via the holding company for the group's 35% equity investment in PT Jawa Power, which owns a 1,220MW power station in Indonesia,” he said.
Yeoh added that the partnership formed the basis of cooperation on potential investments and future opportunities in the global utilities industry.
“During the year under review, we continued to make progress on the reorganisation of the group's property development assets and companies which was approved by shareholders this month and is now pending completion,” he said.
Yeoh said the reorganisation would streamline operations by housing the group's property development assets and projects within the same division to leverage on operational and developmental efficiencies and synergies.
YTL Cement Bhd posted a 19.08% rise in net profit to RM80.10mil and a 28.52% gain in revenue to RM635.04mil for the fourth quarter ended June 30 compared with the same period a year ago on higher demand from the construction industry as well as improved performance of overseas operations.
YTL Power International Bhd posted a 1.41% decline in net profit to RM451.56mil on a 13.62% rise in revenue of RM4.26bil mainly from contributions from foreign operations including in power generation, water and sewerage services as well as merchant multi-utility businesses and communications.
YTL Land and Development Bhd posted a 154.36% jump in net profit to RM9.76mil owing to higher other operating income and lower operating expenses.
However, revenue tumbled 76.59% to RM8.80mil on lower revenue recognition from both construction and property development segments due to completion of certain projects during the period under review and the timing difference of new project launches.
YTL E-Solutions Bhd's net profit advanced 98.69% to RM6.89mil mainly due to higher fee income earned from WiMAX spectrum on a 135.45% jump in revenue to RM22.44mil.
Genting 2Q net profit dips 8.92% to RM673.22m
KUALA LUMPUR: GENTING BHD [] net profit for the second quarter ended June 30, 2011 fell 8.92% to RM673.22 million from RM739.17 million a year earlier, while revenue for the quarter rose 9.3% to RM4.46 billion from RM4.09 billion in 2010.
Genting said on Thursday, Aug 25 that its earnings per share was 18.17 sen compared to 20 sen in 2010, while net asset per share was RM4.53.
Genting declared a gross interim dividend of 3.5 sen per share of 10 sen each, to be paid on Oct 27.
For the six months ended June 30, Genting’s net profit jumped 54.2% to RM1.49 billion from RM971.61 million in 2010, on the back of a 29.9% increase in revenue to RM9.35 billion from RM7.19 billion.
Reviewing its performance for the six months ended June 30, Genting said the increase in revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) came mainly from the leisure & hospitality, power and PLANTATION [] divisions.
Revenue from the Singapore IR increased compared with revenue in the first half of 2010 due to a first full half year of operations, it said.
The higher revenue contributed to the higher adjusted EBITDA in the current half year, it said.
“The revenue and adjusted EBITDA of the leisure and hospitality business in Malaysia increased in the current half year due to higher hold percentage in the premium players business,” it said.
Genting said the increase in revenue of its power division arose mainly from the Meizhou Wan power plant as a result of higher dispatch in the current half year.
The current half year revenue had also included a compensation from the Fujian provincial government in respect of an increase in tariff rate, it said.
The increase in the adjusted EBITDA was attributable to the higher revenue in the current half year, it said.
Meanwhile, it said the plantation division’s revenue and adjusted EBITDA in the current half year increased due mainly to higher palm products prices and higher FFB production.
It also said there was no revenue from the oil and gas division following the disposal of Genting Oil & Gas (China) Limited (GOGCL) on Dec 10, 2010.
The loss incurred during the current half year arose mainly from general and administrative expenses, it said.
On its prospects, Genting said it was cautious on the outlook of the leisure and hospitality industry as the global economy was showing signs of increasing uncertainties.
It said the power division might be affected by higher coal prices which would however be mitigated by an increase in tariff rate for the Meizhou Wan power plant which has been agreed with the provincial government and expected higher summer generation hours.
Meanwhile, it said the performance of Genting Plantations Bhd was expected to be better than that of the previous financial year.
Genting said on Thursday, Aug 25 that its earnings per share was 18.17 sen compared to 20 sen in 2010, while net asset per share was RM4.53.
Genting declared a gross interim dividend of 3.5 sen per share of 10 sen each, to be paid on Oct 27.
For the six months ended June 30, Genting’s net profit jumped 54.2% to RM1.49 billion from RM971.61 million in 2010, on the back of a 29.9% increase in revenue to RM9.35 billion from RM7.19 billion.
Reviewing its performance for the six months ended June 30, Genting said the increase in revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) came mainly from the leisure & hospitality, power and PLANTATION [] divisions.
Revenue from the Singapore IR increased compared with revenue in the first half of 2010 due to a first full half year of operations, it said.
The higher revenue contributed to the higher adjusted EBITDA in the current half year, it said.
“The revenue and adjusted EBITDA of the leisure and hospitality business in Malaysia increased in the current half year due to higher hold percentage in the premium players business,” it said.
Genting said the increase in revenue of its power division arose mainly from the Meizhou Wan power plant as a result of higher dispatch in the current half year.
The current half year revenue had also included a compensation from the Fujian provincial government in respect of an increase in tariff rate, it said.
The increase in the adjusted EBITDA was attributable to the higher revenue in the current half year, it said.
Meanwhile, it said the plantation division’s revenue and adjusted EBITDA in the current half year increased due mainly to higher palm products prices and higher FFB production.
It also said there was no revenue from the oil and gas division following the disposal of Genting Oil & Gas (China) Limited (GOGCL) on Dec 10, 2010.
The loss incurred during the current half year arose mainly from general and administrative expenses, it said.
On its prospects, Genting said it was cautious on the outlook of the leisure and hospitality industry as the global economy was showing signs of increasing uncertainties.
It said the power division might be affected by higher coal prices which would however be mitigated by an increase in tariff rate for the Meizhou Wan power plant which has been agreed with the provincial government and expected higher summer generation hours.
Meanwhile, it said the performance of Genting Plantations Bhd was expected to be better than that of the previous financial year.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
分享锦集：谈价值投资法
Aug 19th, 2011 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集
股票投资方法很多，其中最常用的两种为：
⑴价值投资法（Value Investing）。
⑵技术分析法（Technical, Analysis），又叫图表家（Chartist）。
两者都有悠久的历史和众多的信徒，说明了各有所长，因为任何不能产生效果的方法，都会在时间的长河中自动消失，两者能历久不衰，说明了两者都有其存在的硬道理。
长期苦练
对我来说，任何能为你赚钱的方法，就是适合你的方法。
方法无谓好坏，就好像学武的人，无论是用剑、用刀或用棍，只要使到炉火纯青，都可成为武林高手。
但是，有一点是肯定的，天下没有免费的午餐，无论选择那种方法，都必须长期苦练，才有可能登峰造极，达到纯熟的地步，拳不离手，曲不离口，是经验之谈。
价值投资者把注意力集中在企业上，他们深信，股价的表现决定于公司的业绩表现，只要业绩标青，股价自然跟着上升，同样的，业绩表现差劲，股价跟着滑落，业绩和股价，有如实体与影子，并驾齐驱。
短期来说，股价与业绩可能脱节，长期来说，两者必然同步起落。
他们相信，业绩是根，股价是枝叶，本固则枝荣，如果根腐烂了，枝叶自然就枯死。所以，注重股价，不理业绩，是舍本逐末，非投资之正道。
基本强稳
价值投资者，是以股票的“价值”作为投资的标准。
而“价值”源自业绩，业绩源自基本面，价值好比是一间屋子，基本因素是屋子的柱子、墙壁、地基及门窗，是组成屋子的“组件”。
惟有基本因素强稳，才能创造业绩，有良好的业绩表现，股票才有价值，有价值，股价才会起。
价值投资者的目的，是找出价值被低估的股票，买进长期持有，等到市场发现其价值，进行扯购，股价跟着上升，最后反映其真实价值，或者价值被市场高估时，投资者才脱售其股票，套取利润。请看附表：
公司盈利决定股价
图一显示股价与价值之间有一个很大的缺口，当缺口越大，越值得买进，这种情形，多数出现在熊市中。
通常股价会在低水平徘徊一段时间（3-5个月不等），反向投资者会在股价停滞不动时，检视其基本面，评估其价值，如果发现股票价值被严重低估，而业绩又可能在经济复苏时回升，就可以买进，紧握不放，争取厚利。
图二，在牛市中，股价远远超过价值，再投资下去，回酬已不具吸引力，就应该脱售离场。
在图一和图二的情形，投资者可以用市价总值（Market capitalisation）作为指导。
假设你要创设一家这种规模的公司，你要投资2亿令吉，如今公司的市值（即买进整家公司所付出的代价）只是1亿令吉，你以半价买进这家现成公司，可以节省数年的时间，不是比创建新公司更合算吗？
你买进1万股和买进1亿股，理由必须是相同的。
图三显示股价已完全反映其价值，那么，要继续投资下去还是套利，取决于公司的业绩表现。如果业绩长期向上，那么拿得越久，赚得越多，你可以永远不卖，许多富豪，都是这样成就的。
千万要记住，你买的是公司的股份，股份的价值决定于公司盈利，当公司的业绩持续走下坡，而且在可以预见的将来，不大可能转亏为盈时，就不要犹豫不决，一定要脱售，以免全军覆没。
股市是最不理智的地方，在熊市中，投资者往往以半价，甚至五分之一的价格，抛售其股票，对股票有研究，了解股票价值的投资者，往往可以用低得离谱的价格买到好股。
机会属于坚持反向的价值投资者。
股票投资方法很多，其中最常用的两种为：
⑴价值投资法（Value Investing）。
⑵技术分析法（Technical, Analysis），又叫图表家（Chartist）。
两者都有悠久的历史和众多的信徒，说明了各有所长，因为任何不能产生效果的方法，都会在时间的长河中自动消失，两者能历久不衰，说明了两者都有其存在的硬道理。
长期苦练
对我来说，任何能为你赚钱的方法，就是适合你的方法。
方法无谓好坏，就好像学武的人，无论是用剑、用刀或用棍，只要使到炉火纯青，都可成为武林高手。
但是，有一点是肯定的，天下没有免费的午餐，无论选择那种方法，都必须长期苦练，才有可能登峰造极，达到纯熟的地步，拳不离手，曲不离口，是经验之谈。
价值投资者把注意力集中在企业上，他们深信，股价的表现决定于公司的业绩表现，只要业绩标青，股价自然跟着上升，同样的，业绩表现差劲，股价跟着滑落，业绩和股价，有如实体与影子，并驾齐驱。
短期来说，股价与业绩可能脱节，长期来说，两者必然同步起落。
他们相信，业绩是根，股价是枝叶，本固则枝荣，如果根腐烂了，枝叶自然就枯死。所以，注重股价，不理业绩，是舍本逐末，非投资之正道。
基本强稳
价值投资者，是以股票的“价值”作为投资的标准。
而“价值”源自业绩，业绩源自基本面，价值好比是一间屋子，基本因素是屋子的柱子、墙壁、地基及门窗，是组成屋子的“组件”。
惟有基本因素强稳，才能创造业绩，有良好的业绩表现，股票才有价值，有价值，股价才会起。
价值投资者的目的，是找出价值被低估的股票，买进长期持有，等到市场发现其价值，进行扯购，股价跟着上升，最后反映其真实价值，或者价值被市场高估时，投资者才脱售其股票，套取利润。请看附表：
公司盈利决定股价
图一显示股价与价值之间有一个很大的缺口，当缺口越大，越值得买进，这种情形，多数出现在熊市中。
通常股价会在低水平徘徊一段时间（3-5个月不等），反向投资者会在股价停滞不动时，检视其基本面，评估其价值，如果发现股票价值被严重低估，而业绩又可能在经济复苏时回升，就可以买进，紧握不放，争取厚利。
图二，在牛市中，股价远远超过价值，再投资下去，回酬已不具吸引力，就应该脱售离场。
在图一和图二的情形，投资者可以用市价总值（Market capitalisation）作为指导。
假设你要创设一家这种规模的公司，你要投资2亿令吉，如今公司的市值（即买进整家公司所付出的代价）只是1亿令吉，你以半价买进这家现成公司，可以节省数年的时间，不是比创建新公司更合算吗？
你买进1万股和买进1亿股，理由必须是相同的。
图三显示股价已完全反映其价值，那么，要继续投资下去还是套利，取决于公司的业绩表现。如果业绩长期向上，那么拿得越久，赚得越多，你可以永远不卖，许多富豪，都是这样成就的。
千万要记住，你买的是公司的股份，股份的价值决定于公司盈利，当公司的业绩持续走下坡，而且在可以预见的将来，不大可能转亏为盈时，就不要犹豫不决，一定要脱售，以免全军覆没。
股市是最不理智的地方，在熊市中，投资者往往以半价，甚至五分之一的价格，抛售其股票，对股票有研究，了解股票价值的投资者，往往可以用低得离谱的价格买到好股。
机会属于坚持反向的价值投资者。
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
45%受訪民眾賠錢捨不得停損 被套牢 加碼攤平就好？
撰文者：林雅惠 2011-08-01
根據《Smart智富》月刊與雅虎奇摩理財網合作的調查「投資賠錢了，你怎麼做？」結果顯示，今年以來「賺少賠多」與「全部都賠」的投資人合計約7成，無怪乎投資人在網上悲嘆：「還會不會再跌？現在到底該不該出場？」、「不是說有選前行情嗎？」
討論歸討論，真正認賠停損的投資人，卻屬少數，調查顯示，當投資人賠錢時，有高達45%抱持「總有一天價格會回來」的態度。
「這是標準的鴕鳥心態，很要不得。」政大金融系教授殷乃平說，面對投資虧損，很多人以為置之不理就有機會「起死回生」，事實上，若投資標的不在對的產業前景上，怎麼樣也不可能回到原來的投資價位。不如坦承投資失敗，認賠出場，以免血本無歸。
投資人不僅捨不得停損，更有高達56%的投資人會在套牢時選擇加碼攤平，絲毫不怕愈攤愈貧。
處理虧損要當機立斷
才是長期賺錢關鍵
.為什麼停損這麼難？財務行為學界曾經根據此現象研究投資人的心理，提出「前景理論」，亦即「投資100萬元，上半年賺50%，下半年卻虧了50%，投資人只會記得賠，不會記得賺的經驗。」
也就是說，賠1塊錢的痛苦，勝過賺1塊錢的快樂，因此多數投資人傾向「避賠」，寧願套牢當鴕鳥，也不甘心停損。
不過，投資高手們都知道，正確處理賠錢的投資，才是長期賺錢的關鍵。以投資大師索羅斯為例，他在1987年錯估情勢，大手筆放空日本，結果日本市場反而走高，他當機立斷出場，原則即是：「先求存活再求致富」，如果這次連本都虧光了，下一次又怎麼可能有機會賺錢？
「很多人住進套房以後就不敢動，結果資產永遠是負的，翻不了身。一定要學會如何判斷接下來的情勢，採取行動，才有機會打敗負資產的局面。」張翠玲說。
究竟該怎麼處理賠錢投資才是正確的方法？立即停損？或是有限度的加碼攤平？以下為《Smart智富》月刊根據台股投資達人艾力克斯、施羅德投信副總張翠玲以及殷乃平等專家，綜合歸納出3個方法，下一次當你股票套牢時，可以作為參考。
【達人教戰】投資停損3心法，打敗負資產
施羅德投信副總－張翠玲、政大金融系教授－殷乃平、台股投資達人－艾力克斯
心法1》不要硬拗，看錯就要先認錯
投資套牢了，如果堅定市場是錯的，自己才是對的，那你注定是輸家，賠錢第一課就是「不要跟市場爭辯」，下跌一定有下跌的道理，先檢討自己為什麼買到賠錢的 投資。以股票為例，當初是否聽信名嘴搶進「明牌」？如果真的聽信明牌買進，現在賠了，那就乾脆出場吧！因為當初糊裡糊塗地買，賠的時候也會是糊裡糊塗地 賠，不如當下認賠殺出，不要再硬拗，以免愈賠愈多，也當做花錢買經驗。
心法2》有前景的投資才可續抱或攤平
如果股票下跌是因為大盤整體表現不好，或是某個有前景國家的基金是因為世界總經表現不好，或遇上金融風暴而下跌，這表示挑錯買點，或是運氣不佳，而自己的投資標的本質還不錯，那麼或可以續抱，或採取有限度的定期定額攤平法。
艾力克斯建議，投資一定要勤做功課，「賺要知道自己為什麼賺，賠也要知道賠的原因在哪。」以投資股票為例，他建議定期要記錄：
1.個股的營收、獲利、毛利
2.大盤相對位置
3.總體經濟變化，包括景氣燈號、利率走勢
4.選舉等非經濟因素
「從這些因素可判斷這個產業及個股的優勢還在不在？若還是有優勢，那就續抱，等大環境轉好，總有一天可以回本；若是沒有前景，趕快出場，不要再賠下去了。」艾力克斯說。
張翠玲建議，若評估還有前景，可再額外加碼，以基金來說，用定期定額來攤平成本是一個不錯的長期穩健投資術。「假設當初用100元買1單位，現在跌了，100元可以買到3個單位，這樣成本愈拉愈低，當市場反轉向上的時候，翻身的機會也比較大。」
心法3》垃圾不會變黃金，利用低檔轉換到有前景的標的
不論是股票或基金，當理性評估過後，發現該股、該產業、或該國經濟沒有前景，就要趁早認賠，把變現的錢拿去投資具備潛力的標的。特別是市場整體大跌時，此 時好、壞標的一起跌，但接下來，好標的會出頭，沒前景的標的會繼續沉淪，所以當市場全面性重挫時，一定要重新檢視是否需要轉換投資標的。
艾力克斯舉例，像印度等標的，當初買進的優勢在於勞力成本低以及強大的內需市場，但現在面臨通貨膨脹以及工資上漲的壓力，續抱的動力就沒那麼強了。
俗話說：「進廚房，就不要怕熱」，同樣的，「敢投資就不要怕虧損」，如果能在每一次的失敗經驗裡聽取教訓，就能奠定下一次成功的基礎。
根據《Smart智富》月刊與雅虎奇摩理財網合作的調查「投資賠錢了，你怎麼做？」結果顯示，今年以來「賺少賠多」與「全部都賠」的投資人合計約7成，無怪乎投資人在網上悲嘆：「還會不會再跌？現在到底該不該出場？」、「不是說有選前行情嗎？」
討論歸討論，真正認賠停損的投資人，卻屬少數，調查顯示，當投資人賠錢時，有高達45%抱持「總有一天價格會回來」的態度。
「這是標準的鴕鳥心態，很要不得。」政大金融系教授殷乃平說，面對投資虧損，很多人以為置之不理就有機會「起死回生」，事實上，若投資標的不在對的產業前景上，怎麼樣也不可能回到原來的投資價位。不如坦承投資失敗，認賠出場，以免血本無歸。
投資人不僅捨不得停損，更有高達56%的投資人會在套牢時選擇加碼攤平，絲毫不怕愈攤愈貧。
處理虧損要當機立斷
才是長期賺錢關鍵
.為什麼停損這麼難？財務行為學界曾經根據此現象研究投資人的心理，提出「前景理論」，亦即「投資100萬元，上半年賺50%，下半年卻虧了50%，投資人只會記得賠，不會記得賺的經驗。」
也就是說，賠1塊錢的痛苦，勝過賺1塊錢的快樂，因此多數投資人傾向「避賠」，寧願套牢當鴕鳥，也不甘心停損。
不過，投資高手們都知道，正確處理賠錢的投資，才是長期賺錢的關鍵。以投資大師索羅斯為例，他在1987年錯估情勢，大手筆放空日本，結果日本市場反而走高，他當機立斷出場，原則即是：「先求存活再求致富」，如果這次連本都虧光了，下一次又怎麼可能有機會賺錢？
「很多人住進套房以後就不敢動，結果資產永遠是負的，翻不了身。一定要學會如何判斷接下來的情勢，採取行動，才有機會打敗負資產的局面。」張翠玲說。
究竟該怎麼處理賠錢投資才是正確的方法？立即停損？或是有限度的加碼攤平？以下為《Smart智富》月刊根據台股投資達人艾力克斯、施羅德投信副總張翠玲以及殷乃平等專家，綜合歸納出3個方法，下一次當你股票套牢時，可以作為參考。
【達人教戰】投資停損3心法，打敗負資產
施羅德投信副總－張翠玲、政大金融系教授－殷乃平、台股投資達人－艾力克斯
心法1》不要硬拗，看錯就要先認錯
投資套牢了，如果堅定市場是錯的，自己才是對的，那你注定是輸家，賠錢第一課就是「不要跟市場爭辯」，下跌一定有下跌的道理，先檢討自己為什麼買到賠錢的 投資。以股票為例，當初是否聽信名嘴搶進「明牌」？如果真的聽信明牌買進，現在賠了，那就乾脆出場吧！因為當初糊裡糊塗地買，賠的時候也會是糊裡糊塗地 賠，不如當下認賠殺出，不要再硬拗，以免愈賠愈多，也當做花錢買經驗。
心法2》有前景的投資才可續抱或攤平
如果股票下跌是因為大盤整體表現不好，或是某個有前景國家的基金是因為世界總經表現不好，或遇上金融風暴而下跌，這表示挑錯買點，或是運氣不佳，而自己的投資標的本質還不錯，那麼或可以續抱，或採取有限度的定期定額攤平法。
艾力克斯建議，投資一定要勤做功課，「賺要知道自己為什麼賺，賠也要知道賠的原因在哪。」以投資股票為例，他建議定期要記錄：
1.個股的營收、獲利、毛利
2.大盤相對位置
3.總體經濟變化，包括景氣燈號、利率走勢
4.選舉等非經濟因素
「從這些因素可判斷這個產業及個股的優勢還在不在？若還是有優勢，那就續抱，等大環境轉好，總有一天可以回本；若是沒有前景，趕快出場，不要再賠下去了。」艾力克斯說。
張翠玲建議，若評估還有前景，可再額外加碼，以基金來說，用定期定額來攤平成本是一個不錯的長期穩健投資術。「假設當初用100元買1單位，現在跌了，100元可以買到3個單位，這樣成本愈拉愈低，當市場反轉向上的時候，翻身的機會也比較大。」
心法3》垃圾不會變黃金，利用低檔轉換到有前景的標的
不論是股票或基金，當理性評估過後，發現該股、該產業、或該國經濟沒有前景，就要趁早認賠，把變現的錢拿去投資具備潛力的標的。特別是市場整體大跌時，此 時好、壞標的一起跌，但接下來，好標的會出頭，沒前景的標的會繼續沉淪，所以當市場全面性重挫時，一定要重新檢視是否需要轉換投資標的。
艾力克斯舉例，像印度等標的，當初買進的優勢在於勞力成本低以及強大的內需市場，但現在面臨通貨膨脹以及工資上漲的壓力，續抱的動力就沒那麼強了。
俗話說：「進廚房，就不要怕熱」，同樣的，「敢投資就不要怕虧損」，如果能在每一次的失敗經驗裡聽取教訓，就能奠定下一次成功的基礎。
KNM down in active trade on lower 1H earnings
Written by Surin Murugiah of theedgemalaysia.com
Tuesday, 23 August 2011 09:50
KUALA LUMPUR: KNM GROUP BHD []’s shares were actively traded and fell on Tuesday, Aug 23 after its net profit for the second quarter ended June 30, 2011 fell 23.2% to RM10.86 million from RM14.14 million a year earlier, due to slower improvement in capacity utilisation in certain operating unit.
At 9.50am, KNM fell two sen to RM1.46 with 3.97 million shares done.
Revenue for the quarter rose to RM544.30 million from RM383.21 million in 2010 due to higher revenue recognition. Earnings per share was 1.11 sen while net assets per share was RM1.83.
For the six months ended June 30, KNM’s net profit fell 45.1% to RM29.87 million from RM54.48 million in 2010, on the back of revenue RM957.30 million.
Maybank IB Research on Aug 23 downgraded KNM to Sell, and cut its target price to RM1.19 (from RM2).
The research house said KNM’s 1H results were a letdown, prompting it to cut 2011-13 earnings by up to 64% p.a..
While KNM delivered on topline, bottomline was a disappointment, felled by cost overruns and high operating expenses, its aid.
“While the share price has underperformed by 48% YTD, we expect performance to be further suppressed.
“There is no sign of an operating recovery and cost control is absent. Further, valuations are expensive now," it said in a note.
KNM 2Q net profit falls 23.25% to RM10.86m
Written by Surin Murugiah of theedgemalaysia.com
Monday, 22 August 2011 18:09
KUALA LUMPUR: KNM GROUP BHD [] net profit for the second quarter ended June 30, 2011 fell 23.2% to RM10.86 million from RM14.14 million a year earlier, due to slower improvement in capacity utilisation in certain operating units.
It said on Monday, Aug 22 that revenue for the quarter rose to RM544.30 million from RM383.21 million in 2010 due to higher revenue recognition.
Earnings per share was 1.11 sen while net assets per share was RM1.83.
For the six months ended June 30, KNM’s net profit fell 45.1% to RM29.87 million from RM54.48 million in 2010, on the back of revenue RM957.30 million.
On its prospects for the year, KNM said it expects increase improvement in certain operating units and as such croup’s profitability for the year 2011 would improve, barring any unforeseen circumstances.
Tuesday, 23 August 2011 09:50
KUALA LUMPUR: KNM GROUP BHD []’s shares were actively traded and fell on Tuesday, Aug 23 after its net profit for the second quarter ended June 30, 2011 fell 23.2% to RM10.86 million from RM14.14 million a year earlier, due to slower improvement in capacity utilisation in certain operating unit.
At 9.50am, KNM fell two sen to RM1.46 with 3.97 million shares done.
Revenue for the quarter rose to RM544.30 million from RM383.21 million in 2010 due to higher revenue recognition. Earnings per share was 1.11 sen while net assets per share was RM1.83.
For the six months ended June 30, KNM’s net profit fell 45.1% to RM29.87 million from RM54.48 million in 2010, on the back of revenue RM957.30 million.
Maybank IB Research on Aug 23 downgraded KNM to Sell, and cut its target price to RM1.19 (from RM2).
The research house said KNM’s 1H results were a letdown, prompting it to cut 2011-13 earnings by up to 64% p.a..
While KNM delivered on topline, bottomline was a disappointment, felled by cost overruns and high operating expenses, its aid.
“While the share price has underperformed by 48% YTD, we expect performance to be further suppressed.
“There is no sign of an operating recovery and cost control is absent. Further, valuations are expensive now," it said in a note.
KNM 2Q net profit falls 23.25% to RM10.86m
Written by Surin Murugiah of theedgemalaysia.com
Monday, 22 August 2011 18:09
KUALA LUMPUR: KNM GROUP BHD [] net profit for the second quarter ended June 30, 2011 fell 23.2% to RM10.86 million from RM14.14 million a year earlier, due to slower improvement in capacity utilisation in certain operating units.
It said on Monday, Aug 22 that revenue for the quarter rose to RM544.30 million from RM383.21 million in 2010 due to higher revenue recognition.
Earnings per share was 1.11 sen while net assets per share was RM1.83.
For the six months ended June 30, KNM’s net profit fell 45.1% to RM29.87 million from RM54.48 million in 2010, on the back of revenue RM957.30 million.
On its prospects for the year, KNM said it expects increase improvement in certain operating units and as such croup’s profitability for the year 2011 would improve, barring any unforeseen circumstances.
Monday, August 22, 2011
商業周刊-專欄部落格-大師開講-歐債危機的三個結局
純粹央行主義者現在糊塗了。為什麼歐洲央行能夠購買其17個成員國中的5個國家的政府債券呢？這個貨幣當局做起事來怎麼像是財政機構？歐洲央行不是應該具有政治上的獨立性、操作上的自主性，以對抗通膨、捍衛歐元的使命嗎？
呃，可以說是，也可以說不是。這個答案道出了現代央行（或者更準確的說，是後危機時代在債務宿醉和主權債務憂慮中苦苦掙扎的央行）令人不安的現狀。我們也可以從中一窺狼藉茫然的歐元區亂象將如何收尾。
我們可以用一個海洋救援的比方來簡化這一複雜情形。想像一下，一艘非常靈活的海岸警衛隊快艇接到命令，前去救援一艘遇險船隻。隨著救援工作的展開，快艇發現自己同時還得救援另外兩艘更大的船隻。它這樣做了，但其船長並未得到保證會有更大的救援船前來支援。
歐洲央行如小型快艇 卻得救將沉的歐洲大船
救援快艇上的船員疲憊不堪，需要喘口氣，但他們還得應付焦躁不安的乘客。隨著風浪越來越大，靈活的救援快艇也快不堪負荷了。一些船員開始懷疑船長，而船長再次籲請大船前來支援。不幸的是，由於對任務理解不當、以及情況缺乏緊迫性，這艘大船遲遲沒有前來。
最好的希望是大船到來，困難解除。最大的擔憂是大船來不了。果真如此的話，問題就變成掙扎中的救援船上的船員，是否自認他們可以把情況穩定下來。而他們的唯一方法是一套以前無法想像的方案——把一些人拋下船，減輕救援艇負擔，救援剩下的乘客。
這就是歐洲央行當前所處的境況。
其結果具有高度不確定性，而且會引發一連串後果——不僅僅是對歐洲，也是對全球經濟。全球經濟正處於一場同步衰退中，拜美國最近的債務上限危機和恥辱性的失去AAA主權債務評級事件所賜，世界經濟之錨受到了極大損壞，這給全球經濟帶來了巨大麻煩。
歐洲央行已經購買了近1000億歐元的周邊國家國債，而且承諾將繼續大手筆買進。較少受到關注的是，歐洲央行還把所謂的「回購操作」（repo operations）規模擴大了好幾倍，通過回購操作，歐洲央行將歐元注入到受困銀行中，「暫時」交換這些銀行資產負債表上的國債，且「隨時可以逆操作」。
顯然，在2009年，歐洲央行並沒有發出可能引起爭議的警告——希臘已破產而不僅僅是失去了流動性。我自己的感覺是歐洲央行此舉並非不能，而是不為，因為它擔心這樣會對歐元區其他國家造成附帶傷害。歐洲央行選擇了拖延，寄望歐元區最脆弱的成員能夠增強防禦力，抵擋住希臘傳染病的蔓延。
呃，可以說是，也可以說不是。這個答案道出了現代央行（或者更準確的說，是後危機時代在債務宿醉和主權債務憂慮中苦苦掙扎的央行）令人不安的現狀。我們也可以從中一窺狼藉茫然的歐元區亂象將如何收尾。
我們可以用一個海洋救援的比方來簡化這一複雜情形。想像一下，一艘非常靈活的海岸警衛隊快艇接到命令，前去救援一艘遇險船隻。隨著救援工作的展開，快艇發現自己同時還得救援另外兩艘更大的船隻。它這樣做了，但其船長並未得到保證會有更大的救援船前來支援。
歐洲央行如小型快艇 卻得救將沉的歐洲大船
救援快艇上的船員疲憊不堪，需要喘口氣，但他們還得應付焦躁不安的乘客。隨著風浪越來越大，靈活的救援快艇也快不堪負荷了。一些船員開始懷疑船長，而船長再次籲請大船前來支援。不幸的是，由於對任務理解不當、以及情況缺乏緊迫性，這艘大船遲遲沒有前來。
最好的希望是大船到來，困難解除。最大的擔憂是大船來不了。果真如此的話，問題就變成掙扎中的救援船上的船員，是否自認他們可以把情況穩定下來。而他們的唯一方法是一套以前無法想像的方案——把一些人拋下船，減輕救援艇負擔，救援剩下的乘客。
這就是歐洲央行當前所處的境況。
其結果具有高度不確定性，而且會引發一連串後果——不僅僅是對歐洲，也是對全球經濟。全球經濟正處於一場同步衰退中，拜美國最近的債務上限危機和恥辱性的失去AAA主權債務評級事件所賜，世界經濟之錨受到了極大損壞，這給全球經濟帶來了巨大麻煩。
歐洲央行已經購買了近1000億歐元的周邊國家國債，而且承諾將繼續大手筆買進。較少受到關注的是，歐洲央行還把所謂的「回購操作」（repo operations）規模擴大了好幾倍，通過回購操作，歐洲央行將歐元注入到受困銀行中，「暫時」交換這些銀行資產負債表上的國債，且「隨時可以逆操作」。
顯然，在2009年，歐洲央行並沒有發出可能引起爭議的警告——希臘已破產而不僅僅是失去了流動性。我自己的感覺是歐洲央行此舉並非不能，而是不為，因為它擔心這樣會對歐元區其他國家造成附帶傷害。歐洲央行選擇了拖延，寄望歐元區最脆弱的成員能夠增強防禦力，抵擋住希臘傳染病的蔓延。
從這個角度看，歐洲央行顯得過於輕率了。它相信周邊經濟體會拿出嚴肅的財政緊縮方案，卻罔顧它們的成長前景十分黯淡，而且普遍缺乏競爭力的現實。它還相信核心國家會助歐洲央行一臂之力，分擔巨大的救援成本。
然而，即使歐洲央行有著無限的耐心，世界其他國家也等不下去。市場明白，歐洲央行無法永遠代替其他政府機構行事，沒有其他機構的支援，歐洲央行前所未有的舉動終會有盡頭。歐洲央行搭起了橋，卻不知道對岸在什麼地方。
不管你作何見解，歐洲央行（以及歐洲）正在被迫走向三個曾經被認為不可能發生的結局。結局可能在幾周，也可能在幾個月內發生，但不會拖到幾個季度甚至幾年後再發生。
歐債危機的三大結局
第一個結局是歐元區的崩潰。只有唯恐天下不亂者才希望出現這一結果，但它確實很有可能發生──如果核心國家政府（德、法……）繼續在掏自家腰包的問題上猶豫不決的話，或是周邊國家政府拋棄財政改革努力的話，或是社會不再能夠忍受經濟停滯、不斷上升的失業率以及預算緊縮的話。
第二個結局是政治學家所樂意見到的：十七個歐元區成員國組成一個財政聯盟，德國願意像對待東德那樣對待歐元區，在未來數年內向歐元區輸血。為求回報，德國將要求其他歐元區成員國實施經濟治理改革，交出部分財政主權。
第三個結局則代表了不少經濟學家的觀點：建立一個更小、在經濟上更加趨向同一的歐元區。這個歐元區將由核心國家和近核心國家組成，包括一個更緊密的財政聯盟和更可信的傳染抵抗能力。在此過程中，二到三個周邊經濟體將脫離歐元，以短期經濟不確定性為代價換取更多的工具選擇，來處理債務宿醉和競爭力缺乏問題。
儘管結局已經快要到來，但要預測哪種結局會發生仍然是不可能的。這將取決於支持率低下、反對聲浪日盛又缺乏精誠合作的政客們如何抉擇。
我的感覺是，政客會選擇第二個結局；但最終，在歐元區執行這一決策將以失敗告終，這一點我們現在就已經知道了。在經歷了劇烈波動後，將會產生一個更小但更穩健的貨幣聯盟；歐洲將會避免歐元的崩潰以及歐元區的徹底分崩離析，這一點非常重要。
不管你作何觀點，即將到來的結局將是既複雜又失序的。要是歐洲央行在歐洲債務危機爆發初始就意識到這一點，它或許就不會讓自己的資產負債表和名聲擔這麼大風險了。然而，它可能也別無選擇，就像我們的那艘曾經靈活的快艇不能選擇安然呆在港口裡那樣。
作者簡介_穆罕默德·艾爾-艾利安
然而，即使歐洲央行有著無限的耐心，世界其他國家也等不下去。市場明白，歐洲央行無法永遠代替其他政府機構行事，沒有其他機構的支援，歐洲央行前所未有的舉動終會有盡頭。歐洲央行搭起了橋，卻不知道對岸在什麼地方。
不管你作何見解，歐洲央行（以及歐洲）正在被迫走向三個曾經被認為不可能發生的結局。結局可能在幾周，也可能在幾個月內發生，但不會拖到幾個季度甚至幾年後再發生。
歐債危機的三大結局
第一個結局是歐元區的崩潰。只有唯恐天下不亂者才希望出現這一結果，但它確實很有可能發生──如果核心國家政府（德、法……）繼續在掏自家腰包的問題上猶豫不決的話，或是周邊國家政府拋棄財政改革努力的話，或是社會不再能夠忍受經濟停滯、不斷上升的失業率以及預算緊縮的話。
第二個結局是政治學家所樂意見到的：十七個歐元區成員國組成一個財政聯盟，德國願意像對待東德那樣對待歐元區，在未來數年內向歐元區輸血。為求回報，德國將要求其他歐元區成員國實施經濟治理改革，交出部分財政主權。
第三個結局則代表了不少經濟學家的觀點：建立一個更小、在經濟上更加趨向同一的歐元區。這個歐元區將由核心國家和近核心國家組成，包括一個更緊密的財政聯盟和更可信的傳染抵抗能力。在此過程中，二到三個周邊經濟體將脫離歐元，以短期經濟不確定性為代價換取更多的工具選擇，來處理債務宿醉和競爭力缺乏問題。
儘管結局已經快要到來，但要預測哪種結局會發生仍然是不可能的。這將取決於支持率低下、反對聲浪日盛又缺乏精誠合作的政客們如何抉擇。
我的感覺是，政客會選擇第二個結局；但最終，在歐元區執行這一決策將以失敗告終，這一點我們現在就已經知道了。在經歷了劇烈波動後，將會產生一個更小但更穩健的貨幣聯盟；歐洲將會避免歐元的崩潰以及歐元區的徹底分崩離析，這一點非常重要。
不管你作何觀點，即將到來的結局將是既複雜又失序的。要是歐洲央行在歐洲債務危機爆發初始就意識到這一點，它或許就不會讓自己的資產負債表和名聲擔這麼大風險了。然而，它可能也別無選擇，就像我們的那艘曾經靈活的快艇不能選擇安然呆在港口裡那樣。
作者簡介_穆罕默德·艾爾-艾利安
KNM has bottomed out
Written by Financial Daily
Friday, 19 August 2011 10:56
KNM Group Bhd
(Aug 18, RM1.56)
Maintain buy at RM1.57 with revised target price of RM2.10 (from RM3.35): Given the slower-than-expected rollout of EnergyPark Peterborough, we understand the client has not secured financial close, we trim FY11 to FY13F gross profit margins by 1.2% to 1.9%. Consequently, FY11 to FY13F earnings were cut by 17% to 32%, also indicating a slower rollout. We had initially assumed 15% completion by FY11, but now push back commencement to FY12, which will see 23% earnings contribution. We remain confident the project will take off given that it is a renewable energy project, in line with the UK government’s commitment to sourcing 15% of its energy from renewable sources by 2020.
We expect 2QFY11 earnings to be similar to 1QFY11, reflecting sluggish margins for old contracts secured in FY09 and 1H10. As highlighted in our previous reports, we expect earnings recovery to be more pronounced in 2HFY11, especially 4QFY11 with the completion of old contracts. KNM’s tender book is still hovering at RM17 billion, indicating a still buoyant outlook.
Following the earnings downgrade, we cut our target price to RM2.10, pegged to 12 times FY12 earnings per share, in line with the sector average.
The recent selldown on an expectedly weak global economic outlook has provided an opportunity to accumulate KNM shares on weakness. KNM’s share price has dropped to a two-year low despite its better prospects compared with the last two years. Earnings visibility remains supported by a RM5.5 billion order book as at July 2011 (against RM2.4 billion in July 2010), implying 3.5 times book-to-bill ratio. We remain bullish on KNM’s long-term prospects. The full impact of normalised margins will be reflected in FY12. — HwangDBS Vickers Research, Aug 18
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 19, 2011.
Friday, 19 August 2011 10:56
KNM Group Bhd
(Aug 18, RM1.56)
Maintain buy at RM1.57 with revised target price of RM2.10 (from RM3.35): Given the slower-than-expected rollout of EnergyPark Peterborough, we understand the client has not secured financial close, we trim FY11 to FY13F gross profit margins by 1.2% to 1.9%. Consequently, FY11 to FY13F earnings were cut by 17% to 32%, also indicating a slower rollout. We had initially assumed 15% completion by FY11, but now push back commencement to FY12, which will see 23% earnings contribution. We remain confident the project will take off given that it is a renewable energy project, in line with the UK government’s commitment to sourcing 15% of its energy from renewable sources by 2020.
We expect 2QFY11 earnings to be similar to 1QFY11, reflecting sluggish margins for old contracts secured in FY09 and 1H10. As highlighted in our previous reports, we expect earnings recovery to be more pronounced in 2HFY11, especially 4QFY11 with the completion of old contracts. KNM’s tender book is still hovering at RM17 billion, indicating a still buoyant outlook.
Following the earnings downgrade, we cut our target price to RM2.10, pegged to 12 times FY12 earnings per share, in line with the sector average.
The recent selldown on an expectedly weak global economic outlook has provided an opportunity to accumulate KNM shares on weakness. KNM’s share price has dropped to a two-year low despite its better prospects compared with the last two years. Earnings visibility remains supported by a RM5.5 billion order book as at July 2011 (against RM2.4 billion in July 2010), implying 3.5 times book-to-bill ratio. We remain bullish on KNM’s long-term prospects. The full impact of normalised margins will be reflected in FY12. — HwangDBS Vickers Research, Aug 18
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 19, 2011.
Alpha Chart: Alpha Chart...An "Ugly Pageant", Anyone?
Are we prepared for a bear market?" This shall expand beyond stock investing as I find "gung-ho" property investors will face not only a tougher consequence of investing mistake of over-paying, but also a life long impact on one's financial involving a large investment amount that many take a life-time to save up to.
Read this blog.
http://alphachart.blogspot.com/2011/08/alpha-chartan-ugly-pageant-anyone.html
Read this blog.
http://alphachart.blogspot.com/2011/08/alpha-chartan-ugly-pageant-anyone.html
Friday, August 19, 2011
猶太人—千年不墜的富有民族 想賺錢 得走不一樣的路
撰文者：黃嫈琪
歷史上，猶太人是飽受壓迫的民族，在西元前的古老地圖上，祖國遭到占領後，便開始了數千年遭人驅逐、四處流散的命運。然而流動在他們血液裡、傳承數千年的經商智慧，創造了許多致富傳奇，不僅被視為人類歷史上最著名的三大商幫之一，更難能可貴的是，威尼斯商人、晉商都已消逝於歷史洪流之中，惟有猶太人，至今仍被認為是世上「最富有的民族」，甚至掌控了華爾街。
以下這些人， 你一定常聽到他們的大名，包括美國聯準會前主席葛林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）、金融巨鱷索羅斯（George Soros）以及著名的投資大師科斯托蘭尼（André Kostolany），都擁有猶太血統。
為什麼猶太人這麼會賺錢？因為相較於其他避談「錢」的民族，賺錢對於猶太人而言，是一種美德，也被認為是一種天賦。有個故事是這樣的，一個信奉天主教的保險公司老闆，想要提拔一位優秀的猶太保險員，但希望他能從猶太教改信天主教，於是老闆特地請來神父去說服他。神父與猶太保險員會談結束後，老闆問：「你如何說服他呢？」神父說：「很遺憾，我們沒有多一位天主教徒，他反而勸我買下5萬美元的保險。」
學會猶太人的賺錢智慧，此人就算不能大富，至少也能遠離貧窮，但要從哪裡學得這些智慧呢？關於猶太人的賺錢智慧，有一本最重要—傳世千年的經典《塔木德》，以下就根據這本經典的現代解讀版《塔木德—猶太人的致富聖經》，為讀者萃取出精華。
成長環境充滿「錢」味
從童年就開始打造生意腦袋
在二次世界大戰後成立的聯合國，準備選擇一個繁榮的都市，買下一片土地蓋總部大樓，卻面臨資金有限的困難；當時猶太人後裔洛克菲勒家族知道這件事後，二話不說，買下紐約一塊土地，無條件送給聯合國。
表面上，洛克菲勒家族得不到什麼好處，實際上，他們早就同時買下周邊的土地；等到聯合國大樓落成後，四周的土地價格自然隨之竄升，而這個家族獲得的利益，當然也遠遠超過當初所贈土地的價值了。他們不像一般人，只看到眼前的機會，而是把目光放遠，爭取機會背後的更大利益。
累積智慧，並且靈活運用以獲取財富，是猶太人成長教育裡十分重要的一環；他們從童年就被教導金錢的用途，培養生意頭腦。
洛克菲勒在小的時候，就經歷充滿錢味的成長環境；他的父親會把各種家事勞動標價，不論是提水、打掃、做早餐，他都可以透過勞動，拿到為數不等的零用錢。有一天，父親不再給零用錢，他開始到父親農場打工，賺到了50美元；接下來他把這筆錢借給附近的農民，在約定好的期限準時去討債，拿回了53.75美元的本金加利息。長大成家以後，他也用同樣的方式對待子女，幾乎把家庭當成一間公司在經營。
當其他家庭的孩子，還在父母身上獲得無條件的物質給予時，猶太小孩早已提前從這種生活中的經商實戰，學到屬於自己的賺錢本領，當然也比其他民族更早踏上致富之路。
不做沒錢景的生意
拒絕削價競爭，要賺就要高利潤
商機往往存在於多數人想不到的地方，而猶太人將這一點發揮得淋漓盡致。
美國有一年翻修自由女神像，留下大批廢料，遲遲找不到人幫忙清運。這時有一位猶太人，卻把這個麻煩任務承包下來，而同業都在等著看笑話。沒想到，在這批廢料分類之後，他將廢銅鎔製成自由女神像小模型和紀念鑰匙，廢木料加工做成模型的底座、灰塵還賣給花店，售出的價格是原本價值的數十倍。
1950年代，一家由猶太人經營的馬鈴薯加工廠研發出冷凍薯條；因為馬鈴薯水分含量多，很多人都不看好這項產品，沒想到竟然出奇地暢銷。此外，猶太老闆還發現，經過去皮、切條、去斑等程序之後，每個馬鈴薯只剩下半個可以用來製作成商品。
於是他決定將削下來的多餘部分，添加到牛的飼料裡；加工過程產生的廢水用來灌溉農田；牛糞則作為沼氣發電廠燃料。猶太老闆靠著物盡其用，就這樣打造出一個獲利驚人的商業王國。
跟別人走不一樣的路，是猶太人做生意的祕訣之一；就像「薄利多銷」是很多商人採取的方式，但猶太人偏偏愛做「暴利」的生意。他們相信，市場有一定的規模，當所有人都擠進來搶食，必然會演變為削價競爭，讓利潤愈來愈微薄，沒人可以當贏家。
因此，他們不做這種沒「錢景」的生意，要做，就必須有暴利可圖；像是買賣珠寶、證券投資、貸款等，都是猶太人傾力經營的高利潤行業。
從另一個角度來看，他們還瞄準了被富人牽動的市場。因為，愛慕虛榮是人的天性，很多人都想模仿富人的生活，上流社會的愛好，往往會在中產階級蔚為風尚；例如珠寶、鑽石這些昂貴的玩意，都漸漸進入了平凡人的購買清單。這種牢不可破的人性規律，著實又替猶太人帶來源源不絕的利益。
時間也必須有效運用
偷竊時間，就等於偷竊了金錢
一位日本主管到紐約出差，事情辦完後，他想要充分運用剩餘的時間，於是臨時起意去拜訪一家猶太公司，希望能與主管會面，但因為他沒有事先預約，即刻遭到了拒絕。
對猶太人而言，上帝給了每個人有限的時間，能否有效率運用時間，就是左右一個人成功與失敗的關鍵。所以，必須對時間進行妥善的規畫，什麼時間該做哪些事，猶太人早就安排好了；如果沒有事先預約他們的時間，就是偷竊了時間，而時間可以創造金錢，因此偷竊時間也等於偷竊了金錢。
如果約好會面，對方遲到了1分鐘，猶太人會認為這浪費了他賺錢的時間與金錢；若約好要談25分鐘，但是談了30分鐘都沒有結論，更是嚴重的浪費。假設一個人每天工作8小時，日薪是9,000元，換算為每分鐘18.75元，那麼浪費了10分鐘，等於損失了187.5元。猶太人深信，「會賺錢的商人，就應該是一個管理時間的高手。」
就算做賠本生意都要嚴守契約
誠信交易帶來大財富
猶太人有一個重要觀念：「律法是相對的，政治是相對的，國界是相對的，甚至道德也是相對的；只有你承諾過的合約是永恆的。」他們認為，人的存在，是因為與神簽了約，因此契約不能被侵犯；在商業行為中也是如此，猶太人極度重視交易的信用，白紙黑字的契約只要簽訂，他們一定徹底實行，也絕對不給予另一方任何討價還價的空間。
有位猶太商人購買了蘑菇罐頭，合約寫明每箱20罐、每罐重量100克。但是拿到貨品時，每箱的確有20罐，但每罐重量卻變成了150克。寄錯貨品的賣方表示，多出的重量不加收錢，然而，猶太商人卻堅持賣方違約，要求退貨並且賠償。
還有一位猶太廚具經銷商，接到一筆金額3萬美元的刀叉訂單，因為廠商延期交貨，等猶太人拿到貨品時，若按照平常的運送方式，肯定趕不上合約上預定的時間。於是他花了6萬美元運費，將刀叉送上飛機，準時送到客戶的手上。在別人看來，他做這趟賠本生意簡直是瘋了，但是經過這件事，猶太商人重視誠信的名聲也傳開來，從此，找他買廚具的訂單應接不暇。
即使把賺錢當經商的第一要務，但是猶太人站在契約面前，不管是多獲得利益，或是有賠錢的危險，都不允許自己違反約定。就算歷經了顛沛流離的命運，他們仍秉持著誠信交易，也因此累積起優越的評價，成為世人公認的正直商人。正因為契約不可違背，猶太人在簽約之前的談判過程，一定特別謹慎，務必讓合約內容達到盡善盡美。如果遇到不遵守契約的人，猶太人這輩子都不會願意繼續跟他來往。
在傳統的猶太典籍中，還做了這種規定，「店主每週要清洗一次量器，每天清洗一次砝碼，每秤完一樣東西都要擦拭一次天秤。」因為，一旦量器沾染灰塵，秤重時就會不準確，是一種欺騙行為。
觀察猶太商人致富的故事，很多都是從一無所有到富甲一方。他們勤奮賺錢，但不甘於只付出勞力，而是想辦法轉動腦袋，找出平凡人想不到的獲利方式。想從他們的成功故事裡，找到速成方法一步登天嗎？他們會告訴你，「成功沒有捷徑，但有很多途徑供你選擇。」
【延伸閱讀】猶太人的聚富思維
有位富人希望聘雇工人運送木材到外地，他指派管家代為尋覓合適的人選。猶太人和另外兩人前來參加面談，管家問他們，需要多少酬勞，才願意接下這趟路程遙遠的辛苦任務？第一個人開價3,000元，第二個人開價4,000元，猶太人則開價5,000元，但他不是要自己運送木材，而是分一點好處給管家，自己也能拿到錢，工作再請別人做就行了。
第一個人心理想：付我3,000元才去運木材。1,000元自己用，2,000元給家裡。
第二個人心理想：付我4,000元才去運木材。1,000元自己用，1,000元給情人，2,000元給家裡。
猶太人心理想：付我5,000元，1,000元自己用，1,000元給管家當佣金，3,000元我要請別人幫我運木材。
精明的猶太人認為，成功商人不見得要揮汗當苦力，而是懂得仔細謀畫，善用他人力量，才是聰明的賺錢方法。
【延伸閱讀】猶太經典《塔木德》，傳授10大致富箴言
1.殘害人們的東西有三樣：煩惱、爭吵、空錢包，其中空錢包害人最甚。
2.讚美富有的人，不是讚美人，而是讚美錢。
3.沒有能力買鞋子時，可以借別人的，這樣比赤腳走得快。
4.當機會來臨時，不敢冒險的人永遠是平庸之輩。
5.凡事自己不去思考和判斷，等於把自己的腦袋交給別人。
6.我們無法左右命運，但也不要被命運所左右。
7.如果一個人算不清帳，他的帳就會找他算帳。
8.暫時地放棄一些利益，是為了得到更多的利益。
9.薄利多銷就是往自己的脖子套枷鎖，厚利才能永盛不衰。
10.今天就是最後一天，永遠不要等明天。因為，沒有人知道明天會是什麼樣子。
資料來源：《塔木德─猶太人的致富聖經》
歷史上，猶太人是飽受壓迫的民族，在西元前的古老地圖上，祖國遭到占領後，便開始了數千年遭人驅逐、四處流散的命運。然而流動在他們血液裡、傳承數千年的經商智慧，創造了許多致富傳奇，不僅被視為人類歷史上最著名的三大商幫之一，更難能可貴的是，威尼斯商人、晉商都已消逝於歷史洪流之中，惟有猶太人，至今仍被認為是世上「最富有的民族」，甚至掌控了華爾街。
以下這些人， 你一定常聽到他們的大名，包括美國聯準會前主席葛林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）、金融巨鱷索羅斯（George Soros）以及著名的投資大師科斯托蘭尼（André Kostolany），都擁有猶太血統。
為什麼猶太人這麼會賺錢？因為相較於其他避談「錢」的民族，賺錢對於猶太人而言，是一種美德，也被認為是一種天賦。有個故事是這樣的，一個信奉天主教的保險公司老闆，想要提拔一位優秀的猶太保險員，但希望他能從猶太教改信天主教，於是老闆特地請來神父去說服他。神父與猶太保險員會談結束後，老闆問：「你如何說服他呢？」神父說：「很遺憾，我們沒有多一位天主教徒，他反而勸我買下5萬美元的保險。」
學會猶太人的賺錢智慧，此人就算不能大富，至少也能遠離貧窮，但要從哪裡學得這些智慧呢？關於猶太人的賺錢智慧，有一本最重要—傳世千年的經典《塔木德》，以下就根據這本經典的現代解讀版《塔木德—猶太人的致富聖經》，為讀者萃取出精華。
成長環境充滿「錢」味
從童年就開始打造生意腦袋
在二次世界大戰後成立的聯合國，準備選擇一個繁榮的都市，買下一片土地蓋總部大樓，卻面臨資金有限的困難；當時猶太人後裔洛克菲勒家族知道這件事後，二話不說，買下紐約一塊土地，無條件送給聯合國。
表面上，洛克菲勒家族得不到什麼好處，實際上，他們早就同時買下周邊的土地；等到聯合國大樓落成後，四周的土地價格自然隨之竄升，而這個家族獲得的利益，當然也遠遠超過當初所贈土地的價值了。他們不像一般人，只看到眼前的機會，而是把目光放遠，爭取機會背後的更大利益。
累積智慧，並且靈活運用以獲取財富，是猶太人成長教育裡十分重要的一環；他們從童年就被教導金錢的用途，培養生意頭腦。
洛克菲勒在小的時候，就經歷充滿錢味的成長環境；他的父親會把各種家事勞動標價，不論是提水、打掃、做早餐，他都可以透過勞動，拿到為數不等的零用錢。有一天，父親不再給零用錢，他開始到父親農場打工，賺到了50美元；接下來他把這筆錢借給附近的農民，在約定好的期限準時去討債，拿回了53.75美元的本金加利息。長大成家以後，他也用同樣的方式對待子女，幾乎把家庭當成一間公司在經營。
當其他家庭的孩子，還在父母身上獲得無條件的物質給予時，猶太小孩早已提前從這種生活中的經商實戰，學到屬於自己的賺錢本領，當然也比其他民族更早踏上致富之路。
不做沒錢景的生意
拒絕削價競爭，要賺就要高利潤
商機往往存在於多數人想不到的地方，而猶太人將這一點發揮得淋漓盡致。
美國有一年翻修自由女神像，留下大批廢料，遲遲找不到人幫忙清運。這時有一位猶太人，卻把這個麻煩任務承包下來，而同業都在等著看笑話。沒想到，在這批廢料分類之後，他將廢銅鎔製成自由女神像小模型和紀念鑰匙，廢木料加工做成模型的底座、灰塵還賣給花店，售出的價格是原本價值的數十倍。
1950年代，一家由猶太人經營的馬鈴薯加工廠研發出冷凍薯條；因為馬鈴薯水分含量多，很多人都不看好這項產品，沒想到竟然出奇地暢銷。此外，猶太老闆還發現，經過去皮、切條、去斑等程序之後，每個馬鈴薯只剩下半個可以用來製作成商品。
於是他決定將削下來的多餘部分，添加到牛的飼料裡；加工過程產生的廢水用來灌溉農田；牛糞則作為沼氣發電廠燃料。猶太老闆靠著物盡其用，就這樣打造出一個獲利驚人的商業王國。
跟別人走不一樣的路，是猶太人做生意的祕訣之一；就像「薄利多銷」是很多商人採取的方式，但猶太人偏偏愛做「暴利」的生意。他們相信，市場有一定的規模，當所有人都擠進來搶食，必然會演變為削價競爭，讓利潤愈來愈微薄，沒人可以當贏家。
因此，他們不做這種沒「錢景」的生意，要做，就必須有暴利可圖；像是買賣珠寶、證券投資、貸款等，都是猶太人傾力經營的高利潤行業。
從另一個角度來看，他們還瞄準了被富人牽動的市場。因為，愛慕虛榮是人的天性，很多人都想模仿富人的生活，上流社會的愛好，往往會在中產階級蔚為風尚；例如珠寶、鑽石這些昂貴的玩意，都漸漸進入了平凡人的購買清單。這種牢不可破的人性規律，著實又替猶太人帶來源源不絕的利益。
時間也必須有效運用
偷竊時間，就等於偷竊了金錢
一位日本主管到紐約出差，事情辦完後，他想要充分運用剩餘的時間，於是臨時起意去拜訪一家猶太公司，希望能與主管會面，但因為他沒有事先預約，即刻遭到了拒絕。
對猶太人而言，上帝給了每個人有限的時間，能否有效率運用時間，就是左右一個人成功與失敗的關鍵。所以，必須對時間進行妥善的規畫，什麼時間該做哪些事，猶太人早就安排好了；如果沒有事先預約他們的時間，就是偷竊了時間，而時間可以創造金錢，因此偷竊時間也等於偷竊了金錢。
如果約好會面，對方遲到了1分鐘，猶太人會認為這浪費了他賺錢的時間與金錢；若約好要談25分鐘，但是談了30分鐘都沒有結論，更是嚴重的浪費。假設一個人每天工作8小時，日薪是9,000元，換算為每分鐘18.75元，那麼浪費了10分鐘，等於損失了187.5元。猶太人深信，「會賺錢的商人，就應該是一個管理時間的高手。」
就算做賠本生意都要嚴守契約
誠信交易帶來大財富
猶太人有一個重要觀念：「律法是相對的，政治是相對的，國界是相對的，甚至道德也是相對的；只有你承諾過的合約是永恆的。」他們認為，人的存在，是因為與神簽了約，因此契約不能被侵犯；在商業行為中也是如此，猶太人極度重視交易的信用，白紙黑字的契約只要簽訂，他們一定徹底實行，也絕對不給予另一方任何討價還價的空間。
有位猶太商人購買了蘑菇罐頭，合約寫明每箱20罐、每罐重量100克。但是拿到貨品時，每箱的確有20罐，但每罐重量卻變成了150克。寄錯貨品的賣方表示，多出的重量不加收錢，然而，猶太商人卻堅持賣方違約，要求退貨並且賠償。
還有一位猶太廚具經銷商，接到一筆金額3萬美元的刀叉訂單，因為廠商延期交貨，等猶太人拿到貨品時，若按照平常的運送方式，肯定趕不上合約上預定的時間。於是他花了6萬美元運費，將刀叉送上飛機，準時送到客戶的手上。在別人看來，他做這趟賠本生意簡直是瘋了，但是經過這件事，猶太商人重視誠信的名聲也傳開來，從此，找他買廚具的訂單應接不暇。
即使把賺錢當經商的第一要務，但是猶太人站在契約面前，不管是多獲得利益，或是有賠錢的危險，都不允許自己違反約定。就算歷經了顛沛流離的命運，他們仍秉持著誠信交易，也因此累積起優越的評價，成為世人公認的正直商人。正因為契約不可違背，猶太人在簽約之前的談判過程，一定特別謹慎，務必讓合約內容達到盡善盡美。如果遇到不遵守契約的人，猶太人這輩子都不會願意繼續跟他來往。
在傳統的猶太典籍中，還做了這種規定，「店主每週要清洗一次量器，每天清洗一次砝碼，每秤完一樣東西都要擦拭一次天秤。」因為，一旦量器沾染灰塵，秤重時就會不準確，是一種欺騙行為。
觀察猶太商人致富的故事，很多都是從一無所有到富甲一方。他們勤奮賺錢，但不甘於只付出勞力，而是想辦法轉動腦袋，找出平凡人想不到的獲利方式。想從他們的成功故事裡，找到速成方法一步登天嗎？他們會告訴你，「成功沒有捷徑，但有很多途徑供你選擇。」
【延伸閱讀】猶太人的聚富思維
有位富人希望聘雇工人運送木材到外地，他指派管家代為尋覓合適的人選。猶太人和另外兩人前來參加面談，管家問他們，需要多少酬勞，才願意接下這趟路程遙遠的辛苦任務？第一個人開價3,000元，第二個人開價4,000元，猶太人則開價5,000元，但他不是要自己運送木材，而是分一點好處給管家，自己也能拿到錢，工作再請別人做就行了。
第一個人心理想：付我3,000元才去運木材。1,000元自己用，2,000元給家裡。
第二個人心理想：付我4,000元才去運木材。1,000元自己用，1,000元給情人，2,000元給家裡。
猶太人心理想：付我5,000元，1,000元自己用，1,000元給管家當佣金，3,000元我要請別人幫我運木材。
精明的猶太人認為，成功商人不見得要揮汗當苦力，而是懂得仔細謀畫，善用他人力量，才是聰明的賺錢方法。
【延伸閱讀】猶太經典《塔木德》，傳授10大致富箴言
1.殘害人們的東西有三樣：煩惱、爭吵、空錢包，其中空錢包害人最甚。
2.讚美富有的人，不是讚美人，而是讚美錢。
3.沒有能力買鞋子時，可以借別人的，這樣比赤腳走得快。
4.當機會來臨時，不敢冒險的人永遠是平庸之輩。
5.凡事自己不去思考和判斷，等於把自己的腦袋交給別人。
6.我們無法左右命運，但也不要被命運所左右。
7.如果一個人算不清帳，他的帳就會找他算帳。
8.暫時地放棄一些利益，是為了得到更多的利益。
9.薄利多銷就是往自己的脖子套枷鎖，厚利才能永盛不衰。
10.今天就是最後一天，永遠不要等明天。因為，沒有人知道明天會是什麼樣子。
資料來源：《塔木德─猶太人的致富聖經》
熱錢回頭 新興亞洲現買點
四月六日，外資法人大舉買超台股新台幣二百二十二億元，刷新近一年來單日最高紀錄，截至八日，光四個交易日，就買超近四百七十七億元；對照外資在二月撤出台股的「完美獵殺」，資金回流態勢確立。
八日，新台幣兌美元匯率破二十九元大關，以二十 八‧九九作收，創下近十三年半來新高。亞洲央行相繼升息，不只台灣，包括印度、南韓與中國等新興亞洲國家，無不吸引外資持續匯入，接連上演貨幣升值戲碼。
資金潮回來的理由，主要包括新興市場股市普遍出現近一成的回落、本益比回到值得投資的水準、原本的通膨疑慮可望在第三季緩和，以及美元升值到一個段落。這四大變數也造成全球資金大轉彎，重回新興市場懷抱。
新興市場又看俏 近期淨流入十六億美元
從美元指數變化，可看出全球資金輪動端倪。去年十一月上旬，中國上證指數到三千一百八十六高點時，美元指數回落到七五‧六，十一月底上證跌到二千七百五十八點時，美元指數漲回八一‧四；四月十一日，該指數則貶至七五‧○七，寶來曼氏期貨協理賴明潭指出，「美元指數反映資金變化，這代表資金從美元計價流出到非美元。」
追蹤共同基金流向的美國基金研究機構EPFR Global統計，就在三月底，幾乎連續幾週「失血」的全球新興市場基金，首見淨流入近十六億美元，其中，新興亞洲更中止連續九週淨流出。四月以來，台灣、南韓、印尼等新興亞洲國家，更是備受外資青睞的投資標的。
短短三個月，為什麼會有這樣翻天覆地的變化？
富蘭克林華美新興市場股票組合基金經理人張森貴觀察，去年新興市場普遍漲高，獲利了結賣壓沉重，加上北非中東等政治動亂使資金撤離，今年來表現不惡的美國等成熟市場才成了資金避風港。
「所謂資金『避風港』，當然只是短期，」賴明潭說。
八日，新台幣兌美元匯率破二十九元大關，以二十 八‧九九作收，創下近十三年半來新高。亞洲央行相繼升息，不只台灣，包括印度、南韓與中國等新興亞洲國家，無不吸引外資持續匯入，接連上演貨幣升值戲碼。
資金潮回來的理由，主要包括新興市場股市普遍出現近一成的回落、本益比回到值得投資的水準、原本的通膨疑慮可望在第三季緩和，以及美元升值到一個段落。這四大變數也造成全球資金大轉彎，重回新興市場懷抱。
新興市場又看俏 近期淨流入十六億美元
從美元指數變化，可看出全球資金輪動端倪。去年十一月上旬，中國上證指數到三千一百八十六高點時，美元指數回落到七五‧六，十一月底上證跌到二千七百五十八點時，美元指數漲回八一‧四；四月十一日，該指數則貶至七五‧○七，寶來曼氏期貨協理賴明潭指出，「美元指數反映資金變化，這代表資金從美元計價流出到非美元。」
追蹤共同基金流向的美國基金研究機構EPFR Global統計，就在三月底，幾乎連續幾週「失血」的全球新興市場基金，首見淨流入近十六億美元，其中，新興亞洲更中止連續九週淨流出。四月以來，台灣、南韓、印尼等新興亞洲國家，更是備受外資青睞的投資標的。
短短三個月，為什麼會有這樣翻天覆地的變化？
富蘭克林華美新興市場股票組合基金經理人張森貴觀察，去年新興市場普遍漲高，獲利了結賣壓沉重，加上北非中東等政治動亂使資金撤離，今年來表現不惡的美國等成熟市場才成了資金避風港。
「所謂資金『避風港』，當然只是短期，」賴明潭說。
本益比相對低 通膨有壓力、無殺傷力
德盛安聯海外投資首席傅子平解釋，新興亞洲過去五年本益比平均近十六倍，隨券商預估未來十二個月企業獲利攀高、約十三倍的本益比計算，現行股價相對便宜，「錢當然會自動流向本益比相對便宜的地區。」
當獲利空間大，便吸引外資介入。
以台指期為例，賴明潭觀察，早在三月二十五日，台股仍處在日本大震後的震盪，外資便累積了近兩萬口多單，以進場時八千四百點的成本計算，若二十日結算日台股到達九千點，則每口獲利十二萬，保守估計兩萬口至少可獲利二十億。
中長期新興市場經濟成長領先成熟國家無庸置疑，各界更關注成本推動與需求拉動下的通膨議題。
摩根富林明投信投資董事吳淑婷認為，油價短期內不易回檔，但價格並非急升、仍屬健康供需，且通膨指標大國中國也可望有效控制物價，她因此認為今年通膨對新興市場來說，「有壓力、沒殺傷力。」
傅子平補充說，隨去年下半年基期較高與近期調控政策發酵，市場預期多數新興市場通膨在第二季可觸頂，加上市場先行反映等特性，通膨議題可說利空出盡，隨資金回流速度加快，買點也漸浮現。
新興亞洲列首選 中國上漲空間最大
現階段，想隨資金行情擁抱新興市場的投資人，應該如何挑選？
專家認為，從題材與評價的角度，首選高成長的新興亞洲，較不建議近期已漲高的新興歐洲與拉丁美洲。
「金磚四國中，中國離歷史高點最遠，」財經作家楊偉凱認為，企業獲利確定，但相對漲幅仍小的中國市場最適合中長期投資，而東南亞國家歷經今年來一波修正，目前價值合理，受惠中國內需與企業獲利等利多的新興亞洲漲幅可期，投資人可伺機布局。
據Cmoney統計，由四月八日金磚四國指數的收盤價，對比各國近十年高點的距離，假設未來能重回高點，投資中國能獲得的報酬遠大於東歐的俄羅斯與拉美的巴西：目前上海綜合指數距二○○七年十月的高點，還有一○二‧一一％的上漲空間，至於俄羅斯與巴西，最高漲幅空間則分別只有一九‧五五％和六‧八六％。
新興歐洲部分，儘管市場預期今年油價將維持高檔震盪，可望因油價高度連動較易有表現，但柏瑞旗艦全球組合系列暨金牌組合基金經理人曾志峰提醒，新興歐洲今年來漲幅已達近兩成，「現在布局不免有追高味道，」此外從歷史經驗來看，俄羅斯往往第一季就漲完全年四分之三，其後隨天氣放暖、能源需求下降，市場也會跟著逐漸回落。
至於拉丁美洲除了評價偏高，使投資價值降低；權重最高的巴西近日又為打擊熱錢，加重課稅等資本管制，衝擊股市表現。
考量原物料今年仍是主流，建議投資人可先觀望，等跌到相對低點再進場。
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Stocks to hold in an economic downturn
Written by Excerpts of a special report by MIDF Research
Wednesday, 17 August 2011 12:28
Given the high degree of openness of the economy, a global slowdown will be felt strongly in the external trade-related sectors. Deterioration in external demand will affect exports and export-oriented manufacturing. Private investment will take a hit in view of deteriorating business conditions.
When this happens, we can expect large drawdowns of inventory, particularly in the manufacturing and commodity sectors, thus dragging down domestic growth. Deterioration will retard job creation, income growth, businesses and consumer sentiment. We revise downwards 2011 real GDP growth to 4.5% from our base case growth of 5.3% and optimistic scenario of 6.1% on the assumption that world growth will expand by 3.9%, with G3 by 1% and developing Asia by 8.4%.
Considerations for the 2011 downgrade
Exports, the first growth leg, are expected to slow down. Hurting most will be electrical and electronics (E&E), whose exports have been on a negative growth trajectory since March 2011. Slower global growth would mean production will ease in tandem with softer global demand.
We fear manufacturers across the global E&E supply chain would cut back production and drawing down from inventory. A broad contraction of global demand can result in substantial declines in the computer and parts and electrical product segments, especially when corporations decide to delay investing in equipment and software. Electrical products will be influenced by consumer spending.
We also expect some level of dampening of manufacturing in the primary-related cluster. In particular, our concern is over the chemical products industry, which can take a hit if
demand for plastic parts and components used in the E&E and automotive industries gets hurt. Production of the off-estate processing industry can be affected as well by
unfavourable commodity prices, since it will provide less incentive to process off-estate products.
Earnings from commodity exports could drop due to weaker demand and lower prices. After surging through April, commodity prices started to ease in May. We believe the corrections could partly be due to the unwinding of an earlier build-up of non-commercial derivative positions following the increase in general financial volatility and the reaction to recent data on a softer global economy. Prices of crude oil briefly came close to US$120 a barrel in April, fell sharply in May and have stabilised since. Food prices also stabilised since
early 2011 after 2010’s weather-related supply shocks. Our concern will be when both output and prices drop and higher export volume is unable to cushion the fall in prices.
At times when global sentiment towards equity is weak, no market can
claim to have decoupled from Wall Street, the centre of the world's
equity market.
Impact from second growth
leg — private expenditure — may ease
We expect private expenditure to take the lead in driving 2011 economic growth with private consumption being one of the key pillars of growth. While household sentiments are to remain healthy in the near term, our bigger concern is going forward. Households will retrench their spending when the labour market becomes wobbly on employment prospects.
A pessimistic outlook on income expectations as well as falling real wages will force consumers to lower their expenditure binge.
It is possible household income in sectors that are not severely exposed to external demand may not suffer, hence spending patterns may remain relatively unaffected. While this holds true, we are of the view that spending behaviour can be affected by the weak sentiment following the overall weaker economic conditions and uncertainties over income outlook and job security. This will result in a decline in private consumption spending.
This can lead to a decline in capacity expansion. Capital spending will start to decline if business sentiment starts to wane. This will result in businesses deferring or cancelling expansion especially when external demand weakens and a more cautious outlook on domestic economic conditions is perceived. It will affect the inflow of foreign direct investment and domestic investment. Should investment decline we can expect production to slow down, lowering capacity utilisation rate and easing the need for firms to embark on additional capacity expansion.
However, we believe much will depend on how private investment pans out and can lend support to private expenditure (private consumption + private investment) and growth. Much will depend on the magnitude and speed the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) projects kick in as this will determine the size of the multiplier and its impact on the economy.
Liquidity, the third growth leg, might weigh on the economy
Developing Asia’s inflation is broad based. Headline inflation in developing Asia, including Malaysia, has been on the uptrend driven by larger-than-expected increases in commodity prices. This is due to a higher share of food and fuel in consumption and accelerating demand pressure.
With volatile global financial market conditions since late May, risk of over-tightening of the policy rate by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to contain inflation can alleviate the speed
of a sharper slowdown. After easing through much of 1H11, markets have become increasingly worried over sovereign risks in the eurozone, the downgrade of the US credit rating to AA+ from AAA by Standard and Poor’s and weakness in the US economic recovery. Insufficient pace of repairing the banking system, notably in Europe, and risks related to re-leverage in various market segments have heightened risks. This is reflected by the rising sovereign credit default swap spreads in some euro economies.
Hence, worries are brewing as to whether there will be a trade-off between growth and inflation. Such concern has started brewing with the US economy still on a weak recovery note. Fear of the US Federal Reserve embarking on another round of monetary easing is growing. Should this happen, it will add additional inflationary pressure and may push up commodity prices. Inflow of short-term funds into developing Asia, including Malaysia, will accelerate, thus making it tougher to control prices.
Can raising policy rates solve the issue? Our answer is “no”. Hiking rates will widen the differential in interest rates, especially with the Fed’s decision to keep the benchmark lending rate near zero till “at least” through mid-2013. Widening interest rate differential will entice more liquidity into developing Asia, given its healthier economy compared to the G3. This will further add inflation into developing Asia, including Malaysia.
On that note, we expect BNM to hold the overnight policy rate (OPR) at 3%. We expect BNM to use macro-prudential measures to tackle inflation should it become less tolerable. We are not ruling out the possibility of the statutory reserve requirement (SRR), now at 4%, to be raised by another 50 to 100bps to absorb liquidity should it become a concern.
Strengthening the ringgit will help ease imported inflationary pressure.
Malaysia’s growth for 2012 looks tricky
Driven by global uncertainties with increasing odds that the US and eurozone could fall into recession and China risk a hard landing, we expect Malaysia to face a challenging 2012. External trade-related sectors are expected to remain weak given the high degree of openness. It can put a lid on the upside growth to exports and export-oriented manufacturing. Private investment will be dampened by the poor business conditions and drawdowns of inventory.
With our global growth projection at 3.5% in 2012 on the assumption that G3 will expand modestly by 2% and developing Asia by 7.9%, our growth outlook for Malaysia is 4.8%. Based on our base case growth projection, we have ruled out a recession for Malaysia.
Nonetheless, we are not ruling out the possibility of the economy registering one or two quarters of negative growth.
In our view, the risk for Malaysia falling into recession will depend much on private expenditure and the regional economic outlook. If the world heads for a recession, dragged by the US, eurozone and a hard landing in China, Malaysia’s risk of falling into recession for the fourth time since Independence will be heightened. Much will depend on how private expenditure will compensate for the shortfall in exports. We do not foresee much
contribution from the public sector. With our odds for a global recession at 40%, the risk is that Malaysia could fall into recession in 2012. Should this happen, we project the
economy to shrink by 0.9%.
Exports could remain weak. Downside risk to E&E remains, but can be contained if:
(i) regional demand stays favourable;
(ii) inventory rebuilding takes place; and
(iii) implementation of stimulus measures partially boosts demand for final electronic products.
The outlook for E&E will also influence manufacturing in the primary-related cluster, especially the chemical products industry. Also of concern to us will be the earnings from commodity exports, which will depend on demand and prices.
Can private expenditure complement any shortfall from weak exports? Erosion in household confidence due to a pessimistic outlook on income expectations and falling real wages can retrench spending. Such behaviour can choke businesses confidence and hence capital spending. Inflow of FDI and domestic investment expansion can take a hit. Any reversal to the negative scenario will depend on the ETP projects and the regional economic outlook.
Thus, implementation will have to be faster than just announcing.
Risk of falling into a ‘liquidity trap’?
While this may not be an issue for now, a U-turn monetary policy may not necessarily provide the desired results. Much will depend on consumer confidence. To ensure confidence remains stable and to ensure a workable U-turn monetary policy it is essential to protect the labour market from worsening and also real wages from falling due to inflation.
Although we have played down this risk for now, this can be a problem going forward.
A slowdown in the economy may force the policy makers to delay their fiscal deficit consolidation, especially in 2012. Should there be a delay in reducing the budget deficit in 2012, it could mean a possible delay in relaxing the subsidies. Compensating the subsidy
strain would be the implementation of GST by end-2012 and trimming of public consumption expenditure, especially in the area of operating expenditure. We continue to reiterate our view that the budget deficit in 2011 would be trimmed to 5.4% of GDP in 2011 from 5.6% of GDP in 2010. Looking ahead into 2012, we expect the budget reduction would be around 5.2% of GDP, still staying above the 5% threshold.
The severe retracement in the local market recently was not unexpected and is clearly a contagion effect from the turmoil on Wall Street. At times when global sentiment towards equity is weak, no market can claim to have decoupled from Wall Street, the centre of the world’s equity market.
How the equity market has behaved recently shed some light on what the price trend will be until the end of the year. Judging by the intensity of the market pullback, what transpired was surely not a one-day fluke, unlike the “flash” crash of the previous year. We reckon that the market is hurriedly pricing in more severe headwinds than earlier expected. While there could be a technical rebound, selling pressure on the equity market is expected to persist for a while. The market is likely to remain volatile, with prices on a correction path until it reaches equilibrium.
We believe investors are bracing for the prospect of either a global double-dip recession or marked slower-than-expected growth. The Fed pictured a subdued outlook for the US economy, so much so that it expects to keep the key overnight rate near zero through mid-2013. GDP growth announced for 2Q11 thus far has been lacklustre, with the US figure coming in lower than expected at 1.3% against market consensus of 1.9%. The economic report card for Asia-Pacific countries has also been equally lacklustre.
In addition, the sovereign debt situation in the eurozone is far from settling with “too big to bail” countries such as Italy and Spain beginning to show signs of distress as evident by soaring spreads in the credit default swap (CDS) market. Moreover, S&P’s downgrade of US credit ratings to AA+ from AAA, with room for further downgrading to AA if the US fails to reduce spending to the agreed upon level by 2013, certainly does not help market sentiment.
A death cross is crossover resulting from an index’s short-term moving average or support level falling below the long-term moving average. As long-term indicators carry more weight, this trend indicates a bear market on the horizon and is reinforced by high trading volumes. Additionally, the long-term moving average becomes the new resistance level in the rising market. The “short-term” popularly refers to the 50-day moving average (50dma) while
the “long-term” refers to the 200-day moving average (200dma). When the 50dma crosses from below the 200dma, it is called the “golden cross”. When the 50dma crosses from above to below the 200dma it is called the “death cross”.
Our simulation of the FBM KLCI shows that we can expect a death cross on Sept 15. This assumes that the market consolidates at the 1,500 level from now onwards. While the market may stage a rebound after a death cross, the 200dma will be a strong resistance. This resistance should be in the region of 1,530. Thereafter, expect a secular (long-lasting) downtrend. In 2008, it lasted for more than six months.
Based on empirical observations, the FBM KLCI’s present year price-earnings ratio (PER) generally ranged between 14 and 18 times during “peace” time and it slumped to as low as nine times at the depth of a “crisis” period. As we enter into a period of heightened uncertainty, we surmise that the market PER valuation shall accordingly be reflective of the situation. Hence we can expect the FBM KLCI to end the year at the lower end of its peace time PER band of 14 times. Revised FBM KLCI 2011 target to 1,430 points.
At 14 times PER, our FBM KLCI year-end 2011 target is thereby revised downward to 1,430 points. The new target is 13.3% lower than our previous target of 1,650 points.
The table lists a total of 13 stocks that we believe will not only outperform the broader market but will also continue to maintain its dividend payments in the event of a secular bear market. The 13 stocks met all our established yardsticks except for Axiata Bhd, Maxis Bhd and MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd as they lack price history due to their relatively recent listings.
Nevertheless, we believe they are in good stead to outperform the broader market in the event of a bear market due to the defensive nature of their businesses. Furthermore their strong financial standing leaves little doubt about their ability to maintain dividend payments even during an economic downturn.
Wednesday, 17 August 2011 12:28
Given the high degree of openness of the economy, a global slowdown will be felt strongly in the external trade-related sectors. Deterioration in external demand will affect exports and export-oriented manufacturing. Private investment will take a hit in view of deteriorating business conditions.
When this happens, we can expect large drawdowns of inventory, particularly in the manufacturing and commodity sectors, thus dragging down domestic growth. Deterioration will retard job creation, income growth, businesses and consumer sentiment. We revise downwards 2011 real GDP growth to 4.5% from our base case growth of 5.3% and optimistic scenario of 6.1% on the assumption that world growth will expand by 3.9%, with G3 by 1% and developing Asia by 8.4%.
Considerations for the 2011 downgrade
Exports, the first growth leg, are expected to slow down. Hurting most will be electrical and electronics (E&E), whose exports have been on a negative growth trajectory since March 2011. Slower global growth would mean production will ease in tandem with softer global demand.
We fear manufacturers across the global E&E supply chain would cut back production and drawing down from inventory. A broad contraction of global demand can result in substantial declines in the computer and parts and electrical product segments, especially when corporations decide to delay investing in equipment and software. Electrical products will be influenced by consumer spending.
We also expect some level of dampening of manufacturing in the primary-related cluster. In particular, our concern is over the chemical products industry, which can take a hit if
demand for plastic parts and components used in the E&E and automotive industries gets hurt. Production of the off-estate processing industry can be affected as well by
unfavourable commodity prices, since it will provide less incentive to process off-estate products.
Earnings from commodity exports could drop due to weaker demand and lower prices. After surging through April, commodity prices started to ease in May. We believe the corrections could partly be due to the unwinding of an earlier build-up of non-commercial derivative positions following the increase in general financial volatility and the reaction to recent data on a softer global economy. Prices of crude oil briefly came close to US$120 a barrel in April, fell sharply in May and have stabilised since. Food prices also stabilised since
early 2011 after 2010’s weather-related supply shocks. Our concern will be when both output and prices drop and higher export volume is unable to cushion the fall in prices.
At times when global sentiment towards equity is weak, no market can
claim to have decoupled from Wall Street, the centre of the world's
equity market.
Impact from second growth
leg — private expenditure — may easeWe expect private expenditure to take the lead in driving 2011 economic growth with private consumption being one of the key pillars of growth. While household sentiments are to remain healthy in the near term, our bigger concern is going forward. Households will retrench their spending when the labour market becomes wobbly on employment prospects.
A pessimistic outlook on income expectations as well as falling real wages will force consumers to lower their expenditure binge.
It is possible household income in sectors that are not severely exposed to external demand may not suffer, hence spending patterns may remain relatively unaffected. While this holds true, we are of the view that spending behaviour can be affected by the weak sentiment following the overall weaker economic conditions and uncertainties over income outlook and job security. This will result in a decline in private consumption spending.
This can lead to a decline in capacity expansion. Capital spending will start to decline if business sentiment starts to wane. This will result in businesses deferring or cancelling expansion especially when external demand weakens and a more cautious outlook on domestic economic conditions is perceived. It will affect the inflow of foreign direct investment and domestic investment. Should investment decline we can expect production to slow down, lowering capacity utilisation rate and easing the need for firms to embark on additional capacity expansion.
However, we believe much will depend on how private investment pans out and can lend support to private expenditure (private consumption + private investment) and growth. Much will depend on the magnitude and speed the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) projects kick in as this will determine the size of the multiplier and its impact on the economy.
Liquidity, the third growth leg, might weigh on the economy
Developing Asia’s inflation is broad based. Headline inflation in developing Asia, including Malaysia, has been on the uptrend driven by larger-than-expected increases in commodity prices. This is due to a higher share of food and fuel in consumption and accelerating demand pressure.
With volatile global financial market conditions since late May, risk of over-tightening of the policy rate by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to contain inflation can alleviate the speed
of a sharper slowdown. After easing through much of 1H11, markets have become increasingly worried over sovereign risks in the eurozone, the downgrade of the US credit rating to AA+ from AAA by Standard and Poor’s and weakness in the US economic recovery. Insufficient pace of repairing the banking system, notably in Europe, and risks related to re-leverage in various market segments have heightened risks. This is reflected by the rising sovereign credit default swap spreads in some euro economies.
Hence, worries are brewing as to whether there will be a trade-off between growth and inflation. Such concern has started brewing with the US economy still on a weak recovery note. Fear of the US Federal Reserve embarking on another round of monetary easing is growing. Should this happen, it will add additional inflationary pressure and may push up commodity prices. Inflow of short-term funds into developing Asia, including Malaysia, will accelerate, thus making it tougher to control prices.
Can raising policy rates solve the issue? Our answer is “no”. Hiking rates will widen the differential in interest rates, especially with the Fed’s decision to keep the benchmark lending rate near zero till “at least” through mid-2013. Widening interest rate differential will entice more liquidity into developing Asia, given its healthier economy compared to the G3. This will further add inflation into developing Asia, including Malaysia.
On that note, we expect BNM to hold the overnight policy rate (OPR) at 3%. We expect BNM to use macro-prudential measures to tackle inflation should it become less tolerable. We are not ruling out the possibility of the statutory reserve requirement (SRR), now at 4%, to be raised by another 50 to 100bps to absorb liquidity should it become a concern.
Strengthening the ringgit will help ease imported inflationary pressure.
Malaysia’s growth for 2012 looks tricky
Driven by global uncertainties with increasing odds that the US and eurozone could fall into recession and China risk a hard landing, we expect Malaysia to face a challenging 2012. External trade-related sectors are expected to remain weak given the high degree of openness. It can put a lid on the upside growth to exports and export-oriented manufacturing. Private investment will be dampened by the poor business conditions and drawdowns of inventory.
With our global growth projection at 3.5% in 2012 on the assumption that G3 will expand modestly by 2% and developing Asia by 7.9%, our growth outlook for Malaysia is 4.8%. Based on our base case growth projection, we have ruled out a recession for Malaysia.
Nonetheless, we are not ruling out the possibility of the economy registering one or two quarters of negative growth.
In our view, the risk for Malaysia falling into recession will depend much on private expenditure and the regional economic outlook. If the world heads for a recession, dragged by the US, eurozone and a hard landing in China, Malaysia’s risk of falling into recession for the fourth time since Independence will be heightened. Much will depend on how private expenditure will compensate for the shortfall in exports. We do not foresee much
contribution from the public sector. With our odds for a global recession at 40%, the risk is that Malaysia could fall into recession in 2012. Should this happen, we project the
economy to shrink by 0.9%.
Exports could remain weak. Downside risk to E&E remains, but can be contained if:
(i) regional demand stays favourable;
(ii) inventory rebuilding takes place; and
(iii) implementation of stimulus measures partially boosts demand for final electronic products.
The outlook for E&E will also influence manufacturing in the primary-related cluster, especially the chemical products industry. Also of concern to us will be the earnings from commodity exports, which will depend on demand and prices.
Can private expenditure complement any shortfall from weak exports? Erosion in household confidence due to a pessimistic outlook on income expectations and falling real wages can retrench spending. Such behaviour can choke businesses confidence and hence capital spending. Inflow of FDI and domestic investment expansion can take a hit. Any reversal to the negative scenario will depend on the ETP projects and the regional economic outlook.
Thus, implementation will have to be faster than just announcing.
Risk of falling into a ‘liquidity trap’?
While this may not be an issue for now, a U-turn monetary policy may not necessarily provide the desired results. Much will depend on consumer confidence. To ensure confidence remains stable and to ensure a workable U-turn monetary policy it is essential to protect the labour market from worsening and also real wages from falling due to inflation.
Although we have played down this risk for now, this can be a problem going forward.
A slowdown in the economy may force the policy makers to delay their fiscal deficit consolidation, especially in 2012. Should there be a delay in reducing the budget deficit in 2012, it could mean a possible delay in relaxing the subsidies. Compensating the subsidystrain would be the implementation of GST by end-2012 and trimming of public consumption expenditure, especially in the area of operating expenditure. We continue to reiterate our view that the budget deficit in 2011 would be trimmed to 5.4% of GDP in 2011 from 5.6% of GDP in 2010. Looking ahead into 2012, we expect the budget reduction would be around 5.2% of GDP, still staying above the 5% threshold.
The severe retracement in the local market recently was not unexpected and is clearly a contagion effect from the turmoil on Wall Street. At times when global sentiment towards equity is weak, no market can claim to have decoupled from Wall Street, the centre of the world’s equity market.
How the equity market has behaved recently shed some light on what the price trend will be until the end of the year. Judging by the intensity of the market pullback, what transpired was surely not a one-day fluke, unlike the “flash” crash of the previous year. We reckon that the market is hurriedly pricing in more severe headwinds than earlier expected. While there could be a technical rebound, selling pressure on the equity market is expected to persist for a while. The market is likely to remain volatile, with prices on a correction path until it reaches equilibrium.
We believe investors are bracing for the prospect of either a global double-dip recession or marked slower-than-expected growth. The Fed pictured a subdued outlook for the US economy, so much so that it expects to keep the key overnight rate near zero through mid-2013. GDP growth announced for 2Q11 thus far has been lacklustre, with the US figure coming in lower than expected at 1.3% against market consensus of 1.9%. The economic report card for Asia-Pacific countries has also been equally lacklustre.
In addition, the sovereign debt situation in the eurozone is far from settling with “too big to bail” countries such as Italy and Spain beginning to show signs of distress as evident by soaring spreads in the credit default swap (CDS) market. Moreover, S&P’s downgrade of US credit ratings to AA+ from AAA, with room for further downgrading to AA if the US fails to reduce spending to the agreed upon level by 2013, certainly does not help market sentiment.
A death cross is crossover resulting from an index’s short-term moving average or support level falling below the long-term moving average. As long-term indicators carry more weight, this trend indicates a bear market on the horizon and is reinforced by high trading volumes. Additionally, the long-term moving average becomes the new resistance level in the rising market. The “short-term” popularly refers to the 50-day moving average (50dma) while
the “long-term” refers to the 200-day moving average (200dma). When the 50dma crosses from below the 200dma, it is called the “golden cross”. When the 50dma crosses from above to below the 200dma it is called the “death cross”.
Our simulation of the FBM KLCI shows that we can expect a death cross on Sept 15. This assumes that the market consolidates at the 1,500 level from now onwards. While the market may stage a rebound after a death cross, the 200dma will be a strong resistance. This resistance should be in the region of 1,530. Thereafter, expect a secular (long-lasting) downtrend. In 2008, it lasted for more than six months.
Based on empirical observations, the FBM KLCI’s present year price-earnings ratio (PER) generally ranged between 14 and 18 times during “peace” time and it slumped to as low as nine times at the depth of a “crisis” period. As we enter into a period of heightened uncertainty, we surmise that the market PER valuation shall accordingly be reflective of the situation. Hence we can expect the FBM KLCI to end the year at the lower end of its peace time PER band of 14 times. Revised FBM KLCI 2011 target to 1,430 points.
At 14 times PER, our FBM KLCI year-end 2011 target is thereby revised downward to 1,430 points. The new target is 13.3% lower than our previous target of 1,650 points.
The table lists a total of 13 stocks that we believe will not only outperform the broader market but will also continue to maintain its dividend payments in the event of a secular bear market. The 13 stocks met all our established yardsticks except for Axiata Bhd, Maxis Bhd and MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd as they lack price history due to their relatively recent listings.
Nevertheless, we believe they are in good stead to outperform the broader market in the event of a bear market due to the defensive nature of their businesses. Furthermore their strong financial standing leaves little doubt about their ability to maintain dividend payments even during an economic downturn.
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
世銀警告全球經濟進入信心危險期
8月 16日 星期二 14:01 更新
世界銀行警告，全球經濟正進入另一個危險期，這波危機的始作俑者歐洲國家，必須好好整頓經濟，恢復金融市場的信心。
世銀總裁佐利克說，歐洲債務危機和美國的政黨惡鬥引發股市震盪，再度重創投資信心；過去幾個禮拜，全球經濟又進入了一個危險的階段，現在最擔心的就是，它壓抑了消費與企業投資信心。
佐利克說，歐洲央行最近買進義大利和西班牙(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)公債的決定是正確的，但是這種方式只能發揮短期穩定市場的效用，對於治本沒有幫助。
世界銀行警告，全球經濟正進入另一個危險期，這波危機的始作俑者歐洲國家，必須好好整頓經濟，恢復金融市場的信心。
世銀總裁佐利克說，歐洲債務危機和美國的政黨惡鬥引發股市震盪，再度重創投資信心；過去幾個禮拜，全球經濟又進入了一個危險的階段，現在最擔心的就是，它壓抑了消費與企業投資信心。
佐利克說，歐洲央行最近買進義大利和西班牙(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)公債的決定是正確的，但是這種方式只能發揮短期穩定市場的效用，對於治本沒有幫助。
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
分享锦集:价值导航 反向致胜
Aug 12th, 2011 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集
被视为债务风险评估权威的标准普尔（Standard & Poor’s），简称标普，上周五将维持了70年的美国国债评级，由AAA降至AA+，触发了次贷金融海啸以来的另一场股灾。
在美国股市暴跌的冲击下，全球股市大跌，大马股市亦遭殃，蒸发了数以百亿令吉计的价值，股市投资者，无不人心惶惶，不知何去何从。
上个周末，我身在广州，不断的从酒店电视机的BBC新闻中，跟踪美国债务风险评级降低的进展。
中国的报章，均以整版的版位报道及评估此事，对整个事件的来龙去脉有清晰的分析。
错综复杂
美国国债风险评估降级，错综复杂，即使写成一本书，也未必能为这一团乱麻理出一个头绪来。
总的来说，是信心的影响多过实际的影响，但是，环球的金融体系，信心是最重要的城墙，美国一向被认为是铜墙铁壁，如今竟出现裂痕，其影响之深远，可想而知。
但到目前为止，全球各国还未能找到另一个如美国这么大国力，这么厚实的国家，购买他们的国家债券，以寄存其储备金，因此也就没有别的选择，现有美国债大债主，如中国，也就不敢轻举妄动，对美元债券有所更动。
除非有更不利消息的出现，否则，信心危机将会慢慢被时间冲淡，恐慌心理也逐渐被淡忘，市场，尤其是股市，将会逐步回稳。
冲击不大
此次危机，跟次贷触发金融海啸，有天渊之别，美国国债其实并没有出现危机，不像次贷由于金融衍生产品的实际失信而引发金融体系濒临崩溃的危机，国债风险评级下降只是一项预警，并无实际冲击，因此不大可能引发另一轮金融风暴。
我个人的看法是在全球一体的经济网中，根本没有任何一个国家可以独善其身。因此也就不大可能采取对美国债不利的举措。
美国30年代的经济大萧条，横扫全球，无一国能幸免，那是由于各国采取了自扫门前雪的政策（Beggar Thy Neigbour），结果是同归于尽，如今每个国家的领袖，都有同荣枯的想法，不敢采取落井下石的行动。
一个明显的例子是美国面临次贷风暴时，中国作为美国的最大债主，并没有采取损人利己的行动，因为美国如果沉沦，中国也不会得益。只有短视的国家领袖才会不顾他国死活。
各国互救
此次评级下降，引发全球一场不大不小的股灾，欧洲财长立刻通过电话商议，谋求对策，正是各国互救的现成例子。
就以中国来说，中国作为全球最大的外汇储备国，拥有3.2万亿美元的巨额外储，其中70%以上为美元资产，中国不大可能于此时采取对美国主权食用评级不利的行为，因为那等于举石头砸自己的脚。
评级下降引发各国抛售美元债券的可能性不大，更何况另两家评级公司穆迪和惠誉仍维持AAA的评级。
因此，我认为评级下降对股市的打击，将不如次贷那么久，那么深。
当信心危机淡化后，除非有更不利的消息出现，股市将回稳。
反向投资
从股票投资的角度看，危机就是有危险才有机会，投资者如果采取反向投资策略的话，反而可以因危机而得益。
2009年金融海啸最高潮时，也是人们最恐慌的时刻，如今来看，那正是买进股票的良机。此次危机再现，应该是错过在金融海啸中低价买进好股的投资者另一个买进的机会。
这样的机会，惟有养成反向思维者才能抓住。在众人最悲观的时刻买股，要有胆识，胆识源自知识，知识源自见识。
如果你对股票有足够的见识，了解股票的价值的话，你就不但不会跟着别人恐慌，反而敢在别人不敢买时买进。
为股票价值导航，你才有可能采取反向策略，将危机转化为机会。
在危机中，以价值导航，坚守反向策略，才有可能从危机中，脱颖而出。
被视为债务风险评估权威的标准普尔（Standard & Poor’s），简称标普，上周五将维持了70年的美国国债评级，由AAA降至AA+，触发了次贷金融海啸以来的另一场股灾。
在美国股市暴跌的冲击下，全球股市大跌，大马股市亦遭殃，蒸发了数以百亿令吉计的价值，股市投资者，无不人心惶惶，不知何去何从。
上个周末，我身在广州，不断的从酒店电视机的BBC新闻中，跟踪美国债务风险评级降低的进展。
中国的报章，均以整版的版位报道及评估此事，对整个事件的来龙去脉有清晰的分析。
错综复杂
美国国债风险评估降级，错综复杂，即使写成一本书，也未必能为这一团乱麻理出一个头绪来。
总的来说，是信心的影响多过实际的影响，但是，环球的金融体系，信心是最重要的城墙，美国一向被认为是铜墙铁壁，如今竟出现裂痕，其影响之深远，可想而知。
但到目前为止，全球各国还未能找到另一个如美国这么大国力，这么厚实的国家，购买他们的国家债券，以寄存其储备金，因此也就没有别的选择，现有美国债大债主，如中国，也就不敢轻举妄动，对美元债券有所更动。
除非有更不利消息的出现，否则，信心危机将会慢慢被时间冲淡，恐慌心理也逐渐被淡忘，市场，尤其是股市，将会逐步回稳。
冲击不大
此次危机，跟次贷触发金融海啸，有天渊之别，美国国债其实并没有出现危机，不像次贷由于金融衍生产品的实际失信而引发金融体系濒临崩溃的危机，国债风险评级下降只是一项预警，并无实际冲击，因此不大可能引发另一轮金融风暴。
我个人的看法是在全球一体的经济网中，根本没有任何一个国家可以独善其身。因此也就不大可能采取对美国债不利的举措。
美国30年代的经济大萧条，横扫全球，无一国能幸免，那是由于各国采取了自扫门前雪的政策（Beggar Thy Neigbour），结果是同归于尽，如今每个国家的领袖，都有同荣枯的想法，不敢采取落井下石的行动。
一个明显的例子是美国面临次贷风暴时，中国作为美国的最大债主，并没有采取损人利己的行动，因为美国如果沉沦，中国也不会得益。只有短视的国家领袖才会不顾他国死活。
各国互救
此次评级下降，引发全球一场不大不小的股灾，欧洲财长立刻通过电话商议，谋求对策，正是各国互救的现成例子。
就以中国来说，中国作为全球最大的外汇储备国，拥有3.2万亿美元的巨额外储，其中70%以上为美元资产，中国不大可能于此时采取对美国主权食用评级不利的行为，因为那等于举石头砸自己的脚。
评级下降引发各国抛售美元债券的可能性不大，更何况另两家评级公司穆迪和惠誉仍维持AAA的评级。
因此，我认为评级下降对股市的打击，将不如次贷那么久，那么深。
当信心危机淡化后，除非有更不利的消息出现，股市将回稳。
反向投资
从股票投资的角度看，危机就是有危险才有机会，投资者如果采取反向投资策略的话，反而可以因危机而得益。
2009年金融海啸最高潮时，也是人们最恐慌的时刻，如今来看，那正是买进股票的良机。此次危机再现，应该是错过在金融海啸中低价买进好股的投资者另一个买进的机会。
这样的机会，惟有养成反向思维者才能抓住。在众人最悲观的时刻买股，要有胆识，胆识源自知识，知识源自见识。
如果你对股票有足够的见识，了解股票的价值的话，你就不但不会跟着别人恐慌，反而敢在别人不敢买时买进。
为股票价值导航，你才有可能采取反向策略，将危机转化为机会。
在危机中，以价值导航，坚守反向策略，才有可能从危机中，脱颖而出。
靠存股 拼年領百萬股息
撰文者：劉 萍
▲科技業研究工程師 喬飛（攝影者．裴永宅）
買一檔龍頭股，做10年想賺價差，竟然小賠，再做10年，能反虧為盈嗎？答案是可以，如果你改用「存股＋股利再投入」，就會賺到大錢！
一位工程師，就放棄做10年都賺不到錢的價差操作法，5年前改用「存股＋股利再投入」的存股法，不但績效由負轉正，到今年手上累積的存股部位市值已達430萬元，還能年領超過25萬元現金股利。他預估再存4年，就能年領百萬元現金股利，達成財務自由的目標！
部落格「喬飛的生活日誌」的主人喬飛，就是這位工程師，今年36歲的他，目前派駐在大陸，但他把錢都存在台股。每天下班回到宿舍，他一定打開電腦，一邊看著自己寫、具有自動化程式的「養老股檔案」，是否又出現可以買進長存的股價，一邊則研究如何讓存股計畫更完善。
股市沉浮10年一場空
無心存股發現致富祕訣
很難想像，投資股票十幾年的喬飛，在2005年以前，其實沒賺過什麼錢，「因為想馬上獲利，就做價差，結果都低買高賣，賠錢居多！」在越洋電話中他如此告訴我。
當時，喬飛做價差的股票有兩種，一種是從投資節目和親朋好友那兒聽來的明牌，大都是些奇怪的股票；另外一種則是自己挑的產業龍頭股，像中鋼、中華電等。結果，奇怪的股票讓他賠錢出場，產業龍頭股好一點，沒賺沒賠，只是拉長時間看，投資10年，等於白忙一場。
直到2004年時，同樣在科技公司工作的女友，分紅配得2張台達電（2308）股票，為紀念第1次領到員工分紅配股，他們決定不賣，一直擺著；到了隔年，竟領到4,820元現金股利，加上96股的配股。
喬飛馬上算了一下，把原本配股領到的2張台達電，按領取當年年底股價56元算，市值是11萬2,000元，到隔年年底，因股價上漲加上配得股利，市值變成了14萬1,000多元，報酬率竟達25.9%，遠遠打敗他之前的操作績效，這個無心插柳的存股結果，讓他展開了3階段的存股行動。
第1階段》
只抱股，股利沒再投入
因為只有一年的成績，喬飛還不太放心，所以他先分成2個帳戶操作：一個繼續以鴻海等電子龍頭股做價差，另一個改成存股。
才存3年，就碰上金融海嘯，當時做價差的帳戶，帳面虧損6成。但存股帳戶裡的台達電，雖然股價在2008年從年初最高的110元，跌到年底最慘只有 56.6元，跌幅達到48.55%，但在配股配息的加持之下，當年度還是配得了1萬2,000元股利。抱股4年下來，含配股配息所累積的報酬率，仍有 48.1%。
「如果把現金股利再投入買股，績效一定更可觀。」喬飛當時回頭計算績效得到這個結論：存股，即使遇到股災，都能創造正報酬率，還帶來現金流，讓他更相信存好股，長期會致富。
雖然另一個帳戶虧損6成，但還好都是可以長抱的績優龍頭股，不怕公司會倒，因此不但沒有賣，反而趁大跌進場加碼，長期下來一定可以賺更多。
只是那時候，喬飛卻犯了一個錯誤，「從8,000點跌到6,000點就一下加碼50萬元，結果大盤跌到5,000點時，已沒有資金可投入，成本無法再攤低。」他回憶。
第2階段》
積極省錢、調整持股
為了要快速累積存股資金，喬飛透過自己寫的記帳程式，節省開銷，並降低生活支出，和女友兩個人從2009年開始，竟能每年存下200萬元。
▲科技業研究工程師 喬飛（攝影者．裴永宅）一位工程師，就放棄做10年都賺不到錢的價差操作法，5年前改用「存股＋股利再投入」的存股法，不但績效由負轉正，到今年手上累積的存股部位市值已達430萬元，還能年領超過25萬元現金股利。他預估再存4年，就能年領百萬元現金股利，達成財務自由的目標！
部落格「喬飛的生活日誌」的主人喬飛，就是這位工程師，今年36歲的他，目前派駐在大陸，但他把錢都存在台股。每天下班回到宿舍，他一定打開電腦，一邊看著自己寫、具有自動化程式的「養老股檔案」，是否又出現可以買進長存的股價，一邊則研究如何讓存股計畫更完善。
股市沉浮10年一場空
無心存股發現致富祕訣
很難想像，投資股票十幾年的喬飛，在2005年以前，其實沒賺過什麼錢，「因為想馬上獲利，就做價差，結果都低買高賣，賠錢居多！」在越洋電話中他如此告訴我。
當時，喬飛做價差的股票有兩種，一種是從投資節目和親朋好友那兒聽來的明牌，大都是些奇怪的股票；另外一種則是自己挑的產業龍頭股，像中鋼、中華電等。結果，奇怪的股票讓他賠錢出場，產業龍頭股好一點，沒賺沒賠，只是拉長時間看，投資10年，等於白忙一場。
直到2004年時，同樣在科技公司工作的女友，分紅配得2張台達電（2308）股票，為紀念第1次領到員工分紅配股，他們決定不賣，一直擺著；到了隔年，竟領到4,820元現金股利，加上96股的配股。
喬飛馬上算了一下，把原本配股領到的2張台達電，按領取當年年底股價56元算，市值是11萬2,000元，到隔年年底，因股價上漲加上配得股利，市值變成了14萬1,000多元，報酬率竟達25.9%，遠遠打敗他之前的操作績效，這個無心插柳的存股結果，讓他展開了3階段的存股行動。
第1階段》
只抱股，股利沒再投入
因為只有一年的成績，喬飛還不太放心，所以他先分成2個帳戶操作：一個繼續以鴻海等電子龍頭股做價差，另一個改成存股。
才存3年，就碰上金融海嘯，當時做價差的帳戶，帳面虧損6成。但存股帳戶裡的台達電，雖然股價在2008年從年初最高的110元，跌到年底最慘只有 56.6元，跌幅達到48.55%，但在配股配息的加持之下，當年度還是配得了1萬2,000元股利。抱股4年下來，含配股配息所累積的報酬率，仍有 48.1%。
「如果把現金股利再投入買股，績效一定更可觀。」喬飛當時回頭計算績效得到這個結論：存股，即使遇到股災，都能創造正報酬率，還帶來現金流，讓他更相信存好股，長期會致富。
雖然另一個帳戶虧損6成，但還好都是可以長抱的績優龍頭股，不怕公司會倒，因此不但沒有賣，反而趁大跌進場加碼，長期下來一定可以賺更多。
只是那時候，喬飛卻犯了一個錯誤，「從8,000點跌到6,000點就一下加碼50萬元，結果大盤跌到5,000點時，已沒有資金可投入，成本無法再攤低。」他回憶。
第2階段》
積極省錢、調整持股
為了要快速累積存股資金，喬飛透過自己寫的記帳程式，節省開銷，並降低生活支出，和女友兩個人從2009年開始，竟能每年存下200萬元。
▲靠存股組合滾大財富
另外，賺價差的帳戶裡「被套牢」的鴻海等股票，隨著景氣復甦，開始回本，甚至小漲1成，但在科技業工作的喬飛，見證到產業競爭和變化大，獲利成長到了極限，不適合用來存股長抱，便先轉換現金，準備買進新的存股標的。
在重新規畫後，他很快的調整出以下存股方法：
喬飛和女友的年薪都超過百萬元，一起存錢速度快，加上股利要再投入，資金累積更快。但他並不急著把資金全部投入，而是先存到2年生活費約100萬元，當作緊急預備金，接下來存的錢才用來投資。
①大型股，且公司市占率高或技術領先，正派經營。
②過去10年配股配息穩定。
在原本持股中，若符合這2個條件的，就留下來繼續存。
喬飛自創「還原殖利率」指標，當公司在上半年公布去年度股利，他以此計算還原殖利率，只要超過6%～7%，就在當年配息前找買點買進。
1.做好資金分配
喬飛和女友的年薪都超過百萬元，一起存錢速度快，加上股利要再投入，資金累積更快。但他並不急著把資金全部投入，而是先存到2年生活費約100萬元，當作緊急預備金，接下來存的錢才用來投資。
2.嚴格選股
①大型股，且公司市占率高或技術領先，正派經營。
②過去10年配股配息穩定。
在原本持股中，若符合這2個條件的，就留下來繼續存。
3.挑買進時點
喬飛自創「還原殖利率」指標，當公司在上半年公布去年度股利，他以此計算還原殖利率，只要超過6%～7%，就在當年配息前找買點買進。
▲算出還原殖利率，配息前找買點
公式：還原殖利率＝[股利÷(1－扣抵稅率)] ÷股價
另外，由於喬飛電腦中的養老股檔案，會定期自動更新所有持股的股價、營收等數據，若營收有成長，股利應該也會提高，買進價就會上調，看到更新的最新股價到達設定的合理價位時，他就出手。
①當股價上漲，還原殖利率跌到6%以下，暫時不買。
②若股價下跌，「如果公司營運沒問題，但股價跌很多，代表還原殖利率提高，應該更要加碼！但可用資金絕不一次投入，也不買滿。」喬飛說，這是他從金融海嘯學到的教訓。
而他加碼的原則是，比合理買進價低15%，就先買2～3成；再跌15%，就再加碼2～3成；如果股價跌了40%，應該就是遇到系統性風險或崩盤了。
喬飛這階段的存股計畫，很快就見到績效，到今年，執行不過2年的時間，原本持有的台達電、中鋼、中華電等存股組合，張數已快速累積超過70張，每年現金股利可領到25萬元之多。
理財部落客「怪老子」蕭世斌認為，喬飛成功的關鍵，在於他保留了部分現金，耐心等待合理的買進價位。「買進成本愈低，對股價波動風險的免疫力愈高，就會成為你長期存股的定心丸。」怪老子說。
擅長挑選成長股的基金達人何文賢也認為，喬飛對於投資股票的觀念非常清楚，選股和買進價的設計也很縝密，尤其會每月更新數據，等於是在用滾動的獲利（Rolling EPS）和營收，來推估未來殖利率與合理價，較不容易買錯，而這樣認真做存股投資，長期成功的機率會很高。
不過為讓存股風險更降低，除了喬飛已採取的「跌破買進價會加碼」、「漲過合理價會停買」操作策略之外，何文賢對喬飛有以下2個建議：
目前喬飛的方式，較適合用來評價獲利穩定或成長型的公司，但景氣循環波動較大的公司，例如四維航，在景氣好時，獲利可以衝高到11元，不景氣時就只有賺3元，所以若用該公司獲利11元時配的股利來算殖利率，恐怕合理價會偏高。
因此，何文賢建議，要用2個循環（大約10年）的獲利平均，甚或是獲利較低時的股利水準，來設定合理價，持有風險會大為降低。
如果個股的股價漲到太離譜，可考慮先獲利了結，把資金轉到殖利率更好的標的上。例如喬飛所持有的中碳（1723），本益比已超過18倍，要去思考，接下來3、4年每年獲利是否能持續高度成長，如果沒有把握，就先出場為宜。
第3階段》
集中財力，加碼存股
6年前，喬飛的股票資產是零，現在手上存的股票市值超過400萬元，並且連續2年都賺到7%的現金股利，「以每年再投入200萬元，以及把賺到的 7%股利再投入；在2015年時，我的股票資產可累積1,500萬元，一年可領到100萬元的股利。」喬飛用他養老股檔案中的現金流試算後，得意的告訴我。
另外，由於喬飛電腦中的養老股檔案，會定期自動更新所有持股的股價、營收等數據，若營收有成長，股利應該也會提高，買進價就會上調，看到更新的最新股價到達設定的合理價位時，他就出手。
4.抱股策略
①當股價上漲，還原殖利率跌到6%以下，暫時不買。
②若股價下跌，「如果公司營運沒問題，但股價跌很多，代表還原殖利率提高，應該更要加碼！但可用資金絕不一次投入，也不買滿。」喬飛說，這是他從金融海嘯學到的教訓。
而他加碼的原則是，比合理買進價低15%，就先買2～3成；再跌15%，就再加碼2～3成；如果股價跌了40%，應該就是遇到系統性風險或崩盤了。
喬飛這階段的存股計畫，很快就見到績效，到今年，執行不過2年的時間，原本持有的台達電、中鋼、中華電等存股組合，張數已快速累積超過70張，每年現金股利可領到25萬元之多。
理財部落客「怪老子」蕭世斌認為，喬飛成功的關鍵，在於他保留了部分現金，耐心等待合理的買進價位。「買進成本愈低，對股價波動風險的免疫力愈高，就會成為你長期存股的定心丸。」怪老子說。
擅長挑選成長股的基金達人何文賢也認為，喬飛對於投資股票的觀念非常清楚，選股和買進價的設計也很縝密，尤其會每月更新數據，等於是在用滾動的獲利（Rolling EPS）和營收，來推估未來殖利率與合理價，較不容易買錯，而這樣認真做存股投資，長期成功的機率會很高。
不過為讓存股風險更降低，除了喬飛已採取的「跌破買進價會加碼」、「漲過合理價會停買」操作策略之外，何文賢對喬飛有以下2個建議：
1.留意合理價計算基礎偏高
目前喬飛的方式，較適合用來評價獲利穩定或成長型的公司，但景氣循環波動較大的公司，例如四維航，在景氣好時，獲利可以衝高到11元，不景氣時就只有賺3元，所以若用該公司獲利11元時配的股利來算殖利率，恐怕合理價會偏高。
因此，何文賢建議，要用2個循環（大約10年）的獲利平均，甚或是獲利較低時的股利水準，來設定合理價，持有風險會大為降低。
2.本益比過高宜思考換股
如果個股的股價漲到太離譜，可考慮先獲利了結，把資金轉到殖利率更好的標的上。例如喬飛所持有的中碳（1723），本益比已超過18倍，要去思考，接下來3、4年每年獲利是否能持續高度成長，如果沒有把握，就先出場為宜。
第3階段》
集中財力，加碼存股
6年前，喬飛的股票資產是零，現在手上存的股票市值超過400萬元，並且連續2年都賺到7%的現金股利，「以每年再投入200萬元，以及把賺到的 7%股利再投入；在2015年時，我的股票資產可累積1,500萬元，一年可領到100萬元的股利。」喬飛用他養老股檔案中的現金流試算後，得意的告訴我。
喬飛在存股及股利再投入的操作得到成效後，今年除了薪水和股利的再投入之外，他認賠贖回投資的基金，先停泊到銀行定存，等待可再加碼存股的時機。
不過，在他集中財力，準備加速存股時，大盤已逼近9,000點，這樣會不會擔心？「還是有些股票，可以找到合理買點。存股要持續做，我不可能等大盤崩盤了，才開始一次買入。」喬飛說。
同時他認為，股票是可以抗通膨的。目前台股指數的10年均線在6,000多點，隨著通膨，股價10年線會愈來愈高，「現在的8,900點，到10年後，可能只是10年均線了。」
受惠存股＋股利再投入的好處後，喬飛最近在想，在他退休後，靠每年領的現金股利就足夠生活，不用動到股本，「若是我走了，沒有小孩，就捐給做公益的基金會，或送給偏遠學校的棒球隊，他們還能獲得穩定的現金流！」
不過，在他集中財力，準備加速存股時，大盤已逼近9,000點，這樣會不會擔心？「還是有些股票，可以找到合理買點。存股要持續做，我不可能等大盤崩盤了，才開始一次買入。」喬飛說。
同時他認為，股票是可以抗通膨的。目前台股指數的10年均線在6,000多點，隨著通膨，股價10年線會愈來愈高，「現在的8,900點，到10年後，可能只是10年均線了。」
受惠存股＋股利再投入的好處後，喬飛最近在想，在他退休後，靠每年領的現金股利就足夠生活，不用動到股本，「若是我走了，沒有小孩，就捐給做公益的基金會，或送給偏遠學校的棒球隊，他們還能獲得穩定的現金流！」
Monday, August 15, 2011
Property price pullback after strong show in 2010: More to come?
Written by A special report by Jupiter Securities Research
Monday, 15 August 2011 11:48
Bookmark and Share
There is no question that Malaysia’s residential property market had a great run between 2001 and 2011. But property stocks have had a chequered performance record.
A capitalisation-weighted sector index, the Bursa Malaysia Properties Index suggests property stocks exhibit a pattern of returning to the approximate base levels (starting points) after the index completes its rally.
Each successive rally also took the index higher than the previous occasion, that is, assuming the current rally will accomplish the same. This suggests that, in general, property stocks on Bursa Malaysia are purely cyclical and exhibit increasingly volatile retracements with every new upswing cycle.
The upswing portion of each rally cycle appears to last either about 11 months or, if of an extended duration, about 20 months. Given that property stocks began rallying in April 2009, the post-recession rally reached its 21st-month duration in January 2011 and may already be past its approximate end if the January 2011 high is to be taken as a peak.
Given the cyclical nature of property stocks, they are unsuitable for a buy-and-hold approach to investing. Timing considerations then take on an important role in investments in property stocks.
An integral part of investing in property stocks is therefore to also read market trends for signals identifying a peak in the cycle e.g. relying on technical analysis for signals, but we will suggest that there are other ways to achieve this.
Success in direct property investments depends ultimately on the choice of location, but sentiment trends may be discerned from Malaysia’s House Price Index. After staging an excellent run in 2010, particularly in Kuala Lumpur and Selangor, this index dipped quarter-on-quarter in 1Q11.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that speculative activities did play a major role in the initial run-up in prices in 2009 right after interest rates fell with the onset of the 2008 global downturn. In turn, the sharp price appreciation drew in new speculators and resulted in newly formed families bringing forward house purchase decisions.
In the past 10 years, property prices rose steadily, resulting in a proliferation of hitherto rare million-ringgit homes. Based on the national House Price Index, a “representative” residential property costing RM100,000 in 1988 would have risen in value from RM220,694 in 2000 to RM308,066 in 2010, up 40% on the back of a rise in per capita nominal income of 20%.
Property investment became a viable asset class in Malaysia, where it had stayed in a class of alternative investments outside mainstream asset classes in the preceding decades.
What has changed in the past 10 years that has allowed house price appreciation to outstrip income growth without affecting demand? We suggest six main factors:
Malaysia's aggressively young demographic profile has and will continue to fuel rising demand for housing.
1) Malaysia’s aggressively young demographic profile has and will continue to fuel rising demand for housing. There’s an age pyramid showing a jump in the population in the 20 to 29 years age bracket compared with the 30 to 39 bracket.
This means that household formation is set to pick up pace sharply and that sets the stage for a boom in housing demand in the medium term. Our estimates suggest that on a nationwide basis, the rate of household formation implies that the incoming supply can be mostly absorbed.
But demographic dynamics do not permit demand to circumvent affordability issues.
2) Interest rates fell steadily from 1998 highs. From a mean lending rate of 12.1% in 1998, interest rates fell to 5% in 2010. This lowered the monthly interest-only cost of, for example, a RM200,000 loan by 34.5% from RM1,278 to RM837 while nominal incomes rose 20%.
Lately, many developers even absorb the holding cost by offering interest-free periods until completion. This enables property speculators to gamble on potential price appreciation by buying, then simply “flipping” a property to the next purchaser before the need to pay any money at all arises.
3) Loan to value (LTV) or the margin of finance that banks permitted borrowers to take on rose from typical ceilings of about 70% in the early 1990s to as high as 95% to 100% recently.
The implication is that house buyers need not spend as many years accumulating cash resources needed as deposit for a purchase. Consequently, it became possible to buy a residential property very early in one’s career. Purchase decisions brought forward easily in this manner fuelled demand for houses.
4) Loan repayment periods were in the past constrained by the length of one’s working career (up to 55 years of age), effectively limiting anyone who began working immediately after graduation from university to no more than a 32-year loan. But no more. Banks resorted to two-generation loans of 40+ years’ duration at the peak of Malaysia’s 1980s property boom. Malaysian banks have now come full circle to again offer 40-year loans or for periods until the borrowers reach 70 years of age (effectively launching into two-generation loans again).
The average life expectancy for Malaysian males is 73 years, meaning that this measure (lengthening repayment periods) has no further room for play.
5) Multiple home mortgages spread across several financial institutions each still declared as owner-occupied units generate strong demand that is higher than can be inferred from income or demographics. They reduce each bank’s exposure to a given borrower, but mask elevated systemic risks. Generally, owner-occupied residential mortgages find favour with banks because they are thought to spread out risks, and individuals will arguably be loathe to lose the roof over their heads.
Owner-occupied home mortgages also tax the capital base of banks less. They carry 50% risk weight, allowing banks to extend twice the sum in credit on a given capital base.
6) The rise of property as an international investment asset class. The pooling of investor resources via vehicles like local and regional REITs (real estate investment trusts) has telegraphed the up-until-then limited ability of individual investors to invest in large-scale commercial properties. Some property consultants also attribute the purchase of properties by foreigners as an important demand driver, but other than residential properties in a limited number of enclaves, this may not be a major source of property demand.
Applications to take up residence here under the Malaysia My Second Home programme number about 1,500 a year. Some consultants also allude to the repatriation of money by returning expatriate Malaysians. The extent of this inflow and the number of individuals involved is unknown.
It is clear that easier and cheaper credit availability for both residential as well as commercial properties were major factors fuelling a decade-long upswing in property prices. Between 2000 and 2010, nominal GDP rose annually at 4.6% a year Banking system housing loans in comparison, grew far faster annually, averaging 16.8% a year.
This translated into increasing levels of household debts relative to income. During all periods when GDP growth stalled in the past decade, loans growth merely slowed briefly, only to see, on recovery, an acceleration to a pace faster than prior to the slowdown.
The resultant relentless rise in household debts became possible mainly via a loosening of lending standards in the manner described above.
Is further leverage even possible?
The precise upper limit of sustainable household debts is a matter, of some conjecture, but Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has begun to turn its attention to the matter given the role played by unsustainable household debt levels in inflating a housing market bubble in the US between 2002 and 2006 and given an alarming number of cases of individuals (140,000) seeking assistance from AKPK (the Credit Mediation Bureau).
How far away are Malaysian households from the famously high debt levels of US households at this point?
The chart sets out the household debt-to-GDP ratio for the US from 1952 to 2011. Note that the 2010 household debt-to-GDP ratio for Malaysia stood at 76%, approximating US household debt-to-GDP levels in mid-2002, when the housing bubble in the US began unfolding.
It would therefore be prudent that BNM quickly install measures to head off an involuntary deleveraging process that would accompany any subsequent bursting of an asset bubble (e.g. requiring banks to test repayment means using net, not gross, income as is usually done).
That the current US household debt-to-GDP ratio of 88.6% is still an unsustainable level is best indicated by the still ongoing nature of the US household debt deleveraging process.
In our opinion, the comfortable aggregate household debt to financial assets ratio at 238% for Malaysia is an unreliable buffer because currently high asset prices (e.g. unit trust prices) may also rapidly deflate in a deflationary environment that typically accompanies the onset of any deleveraging process.
Also, such aggregate data masks the true extent of the pervasiveness of over-extended households where income disparity is very wide (a small number of extremely wealthy households with no leverage in combination with a large number of over-extended households will result in a comfortable aggregate ratio still).
Anecdotal evidence hints that this may be increasingly the case. In a systemic crisis, it will be the number of households in the weakest financial position at the margin which determines the incidence of inability to meet financial obligations.
While the precise timing of peak conditions in the property market is as always unclear, we see clear implications from the tailing-off of the credit impetus to the housing market.
The large-scale township development model is clearly behind us. The lack of large plots of undeveloped land in the proximity of mature urban areas means developers must realistically focus on smaller developments, thus robbing property developers of some economies of scale.
The strategic response has been to move upmarket, into “niche product”, higher-margin developments.
In order to justify higher prices, product innovations such as gated communities, “landed strata” communities, SOHO (and variant) residential developments with commercial possibilities, and inner-city high-rise developments have been explored.
First-mover advantage can be quickly lost, so innovations such as these have been followed up by rapid-fire launches across a number of locations.
To maintain the earnings momentum, the gross development values (GDVs) at property developers have had to be quickly built up. To ease the process, these developers have also increasingly turned to commercial developments that involve higher GDVs, but which are more vulnerable to soft patches in the economy.
This is of particular concern as our view is that in a “new normal” world economic order, business cycles will be of a shorter duration.
A clear consequence is the spring/summer soft patch in the US and developed economies that has already weighed on property prices in export-dependent Penang.
Valuing property companies will become measurably more difficult in 2012 as new accounting standards in accordance with IC Interpretation 15 of FRS118 are to be observed in respect of income recognition beginning from 2012.
The present method of first estimating the total development profits and then progressively matching the estimated profits with the percentage of completion is thought to be unreliable, as the risk of failure to carry construction to completion will go unrecognised and project cost overruns may not be reckoned with until the completion, skewing reported quarterly earnings away from reality.
As a strategy, we have deliberately focused our attention on property companies with a small current base of ongoing projects measured by their GDV but which have a strong pipeline of relatively affordable properties, particularly in the Klang Valley.
Considering the following:
1) The interest rate cycle has clearly bottomed and is on the upswing in the face
of inflationary pressures;
2) Beating means test constraints through lengthening repayment periods has reached a practical limit with the latest 40-year loans;
3) Demand from investors is being choked off by restricted access to high LTV loans for second and subsequent home purchases;
4) The price dynamics have turned less friendly and may turn unfriendly in several major states; and
5) The ratio of the price of a representative house to the nominal per capita income has reached 1996 (eve of Asian crisis) levels and Malaysian consumer debt levels are unsustainable.
Our preferred approach to stock-picking in the property sector is to focus on companies with projects involving ongoing GDV of less than RM1 billion. These tend to be lower capitalisation stocks but those which we eye as candidates for promotion into the big league.
The drawback is, with a smaller even if growing pipeline of projects, these companies will report a more volatile stream of earnings when income recognition becomes restricted to the completion stage beginning 2012.
We have also become more wary of property developers with a high exposure to the shop unit, shopping complex and purpose-built office properties segment in Putrajaya, Kuala Lumpur, Selangor and Johor.
There is anecdotal evidence that the surge in launches in this property segment was to an extent made possible by the loosening of bank credit standards. In the past, drawdowns of bridging loans were, as a rule of thumb, subject to projects exceeding the 60% sold mark.
This has apparently been lowered to 40% in many instances, raising risk levels for banks and also for developers.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 15, 2011.
Monday, 15 August 2011 11:48
Bookmark and Share
There is no question that Malaysia’s residential property market had a great run between 2001 and 2011. But property stocks have had a chequered performance record.
A capitalisation-weighted sector index, the Bursa Malaysia Properties Index suggests property stocks exhibit a pattern of returning to the approximate base levels (starting points) after the index completes its rally.
Each successive rally also took the index higher than the previous occasion, that is, assuming the current rally will accomplish the same. This suggests that, in general, property stocks on Bursa Malaysia are purely cyclical and exhibit increasingly volatile retracements with every new upswing cycle.
The upswing portion of each rally cycle appears to last either about 11 months or, if of an extended duration, about 20 months. Given that property stocks began rallying in April 2009, the post-recession rally reached its 21st-month duration in January 2011 and may already be past its approximate end if the January 2011 high is to be taken as a peak.
Given the cyclical nature of property stocks, they are unsuitable for a buy-and-hold approach to investing. Timing considerations then take on an important role in investments in property stocks.
An integral part of investing in property stocks is therefore to also read market trends for signals identifying a peak in the cycle e.g. relying on technical analysis for signals, but we will suggest that there are other ways to achieve this.
Success in direct property investments depends ultimately on the choice of location, but sentiment trends may be discerned from Malaysia’s House Price Index. After staging an excellent run in 2010, particularly in Kuala Lumpur and Selangor, this index dipped quarter-on-quarter in 1Q11.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that speculative activities did play a major role in the initial run-up in prices in 2009 right after interest rates fell with the onset of the 2008 global downturn. In turn, the sharp price appreciation drew in new speculators and resulted in newly formed families bringing forward house purchase decisions.
In the past 10 years, property prices rose steadily, resulting in a proliferation of hitherto rare million-ringgit homes. Based on the national House Price Index, a “representative” residential property costing RM100,000 in 1988 would have risen in value from RM220,694 in 2000 to RM308,066 in 2010, up 40% on the back of a rise in per capita nominal income of 20%.
Property investment became a viable asset class in Malaysia, where it had stayed in a class of alternative investments outside mainstream asset classes in the preceding decades.
What has changed in the past 10 years that has allowed house price appreciation to outstrip income growth without affecting demand? We suggest six main factors:
Malaysia's aggressively young demographic profile has and will continue to fuel rising demand for housing.
1) Malaysia’s aggressively young demographic profile has and will continue to fuel rising demand for housing. There’s an age pyramid showing a jump in the population in the 20 to 29 years age bracket compared with the 30 to 39 bracket.
This means that household formation is set to pick up pace sharply and that sets the stage for a boom in housing demand in the medium term. Our estimates suggest that on a nationwide basis, the rate of household formation implies that the incoming supply can be mostly absorbed.
But demographic dynamics do not permit demand to circumvent affordability issues.
2) Interest rates fell steadily from 1998 highs. From a mean lending rate of 12.1% in 1998, interest rates fell to 5% in 2010. This lowered the monthly interest-only cost of, for example, a RM200,000 loan by 34.5% from RM1,278 to RM837 while nominal incomes rose 20%.
Lately, many developers even absorb the holding cost by offering interest-free periods until completion. This enables property speculators to gamble on potential price appreciation by buying, then simply “flipping” a property to the next purchaser before the need to pay any money at all arises.
3) Loan to value (LTV) or the margin of finance that banks permitted borrowers to take on rose from typical ceilings of about 70% in the early 1990s to as high as 95% to 100% recently.
The implication is that house buyers need not spend as many years accumulating cash resources needed as deposit for a purchase. Consequently, it became possible to buy a residential property very early in one’s career. Purchase decisions brought forward easily in this manner fuelled demand for houses.
4) Loan repayment periods were in the past constrained by the length of one’s working career (up to 55 years of age), effectively limiting anyone who began working immediately after graduation from university to no more than a 32-year loan. But no more. Banks resorted to two-generation loans of 40+ years’ duration at the peak of Malaysia’s 1980s property boom. Malaysian banks have now come full circle to again offer 40-year loans or for periods until the borrowers reach 70 years of age (effectively launching into two-generation loans again).
The average life expectancy for Malaysian males is 73 years, meaning that this measure (lengthening repayment periods) has no further room for play.
5) Multiple home mortgages spread across several financial institutions each still declared as owner-occupied units generate strong demand that is higher than can be inferred from income or demographics. They reduce each bank’s exposure to a given borrower, but mask elevated systemic risks. Generally, owner-occupied residential mortgages find favour with banks because they are thought to spread out risks, and individuals will arguably be loathe to lose the roof over their heads.
Owner-occupied home mortgages also tax the capital base of banks less. They carry 50% risk weight, allowing banks to extend twice the sum in credit on a given capital base.
6) The rise of property as an international investment asset class. The pooling of investor resources via vehicles like local and regional REITs (real estate investment trusts) has telegraphed the up-until-then limited ability of individual investors to invest in large-scale commercial properties. Some property consultants also attribute the purchase of properties by foreigners as an important demand driver, but other than residential properties in a limited number of enclaves, this may not be a major source of property demand.
Applications to take up residence here under the Malaysia My Second Home programme number about 1,500 a year. Some consultants also allude to the repatriation of money by returning expatriate Malaysians. The extent of this inflow and the number of individuals involved is unknown.
It is clear that easier and cheaper credit availability for both residential as well as commercial properties were major factors fuelling a decade-long upswing in property prices. Between 2000 and 2010, nominal GDP rose annually at 4.6% a year Banking system housing loans in comparison, grew far faster annually, averaging 16.8% a year.
This translated into increasing levels of household debts relative to income. During all periods when GDP growth stalled in the past decade, loans growth merely slowed briefly, only to see, on recovery, an acceleration to a pace faster than prior to the slowdown.
The resultant relentless rise in household debts became possible mainly via a loosening of lending standards in the manner described above.
Is further leverage even possible?
The precise upper limit of sustainable household debts is a matter, of some conjecture, but Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has begun to turn its attention to the matter given the role played by unsustainable household debt levels in inflating a housing market bubble in the US between 2002 and 2006 and given an alarming number of cases of individuals (140,000) seeking assistance from AKPK (the Credit Mediation Bureau).
How far away are Malaysian households from the famously high debt levels of US households at this point?
The chart sets out the household debt-to-GDP ratio for the US from 1952 to 2011. Note that the 2010 household debt-to-GDP ratio for Malaysia stood at 76%, approximating US household debt-to-GDP levels in mid-2002, when the housing bubble in the US began unfolding.
It would therefore be prudent that BNM quickly install measures to head off an involuntary deleveraging process that would accompany any subsequent bursting of an asset bubble (e.g. requiring banks to test repayment means using net, not gross, income as is usually done).
That the current US household debt-to-GDP ratio of 88.6% is still an unsustainable level is best indicated by the still ongoing nature of the US household debt deleveraging process.
In our opinion, the comfortable aggregate household debt to financial assets ratio at 238% for Malaysia is an unreliable buffer because currently high asset prices (e.g. unit trust prices) may also rapidly deflate in a deflationary environment that typically accompanies the onset of any deleveraging process.
Also, such aggregate data masks the true extent of the pervasiveness of over-extended households where income disparity is very wide (a small number of extremely wealthy households with no leverage in combination with a large number of over-extended households will result in a comfortable aggregate ratio still).
Anecdotal evidence hints that this may be increasingly the case. In a systemic crisis, it will be the number of households in the weakest financial position at the margin which determines the incidence of inability to meet financial obligations.
While the precise timing of peak conditions in the property market is as always unclear, we see clear implications from the tailing-off of the credit impetus to the housing market.
The large-scale township development model is clearly behind us. The lack of large plots of undeveloped land in the proximity of mature urban areas means developers must realistically focus on smaller developments, thus robbing property developers of some economies of scale.
The strategic response has been to move upmarket, into “niche product”, higher-margin developments.
In order to justify higher prices, product innovations such as gated communities, “landed strata” communities, SOHO (and variant) residential developments with commercial possibilities, and inner-city high-rise developments have been explored.
First-mover advantage can be quickly lost, so innovations such as these have been followed up by rapid-fire launches across a number of locations.
To maintain the earnings momentum, the gross development values (GDVs) at property developers have had to be quickly built up. To ease the process, these developers have also increasingly turned to commercial developments that involve higher GDVs, but which are more vulnerable to soft patches in the economy.
This is of particular concern as our view is that in a “new normal” world economic order, business cycles will be of a shorter duration.
A clear consequence is the spring/summer soft patch in the US and developed economies that has already weighed on property prices in export-dependent Penang.
Valuing property companies will become measurably more difficult in 2012 as new accounting standards in accordance with IC Interpretation 15 of FRS118 are to be observed in respect of income recognition beginning from 2012.
The present method of first estimating the total development profits and then progressively matching the estimated profits with the percentage of completion is thought to be unreliable, as the risk of failure to carry construction to completion will go unrecognised and project cost overruns may not be reckoned with until the completion, skewing reported quarterly earnings away from reality.
As a strategy, we have deliberately focused our attention on property companies with a small current base of ongoing projects measured by their GDV but which have a strong pipeline of relatively affordable properties, particularly in the Klang Valley.
Considering the following:
1) The interest rate cycle has clearly bottomed and is on the upswing in the face
of inflationary pressures;
2) Beating means test constraints through lengthening repayment periods has reached a practical limit with the latest 40-year loans;
3) Demand from investors is being choked off by restricted access to high LTV loans for second and subsequent home purchases;
4) The price dynamics have turned less friendly and may turn unfriendly in several major states; and
5) The ratio of the price of a representative house to the nominal per capita income has reached 1996 (eve of Asian crisis) levels and Malaysian consumer debt levels are unsustainable.
Our preferred approach to stock-picking in the property sector is to focus on companies with projects involving ongoing GDV of less than RM1 billion. These tend to be lower capitalisation stocks but those which we eye as candidates for promotion into the big league.
The drawback is, with a smaller even if growing pipeline of projects, these companies will report a more volatile stream of earnings when income recognition becomes restricted to the completion stage beginning 2012.
We have also become more wary of property developers with a high exposure to the shop unit, shopping complex and purpose-built office properties segment in Putrajaya, Kuala Lumpur, Selangor and Johor.
There is anecdotal evidence that the surge in launches in this property segment was to an extent made possible by the loosening of bank credit standards. In the past, drawdowns of bridging loans were, as a rule of thumb, subject to projects exceeding the 60% sold mark.
This has apparently been lowered to 40% in many instances, raising risk levels for banks and also for developers.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 15, 2011.
Sunday, August 14, 2011
大危機 歐盟五百萬年輕人失業
更新日期:"2011/08/12 18:48"
（中央社記者林琳柏林12日專電）歐盟國家年齡15到24歲的年輕人有1/5找不到工作，多達500萬人，是歐盟地區最令人憂心的社會問題之一，其中又以西班牙最嚴重，年輕人失業率高達45.7%。
根據德國聯邦統計局資料，今年6月歐盟地區平均失業率9.4%，但年齡在15到24歲的年輕人失業率卻高達20.5%。
年輕人失業問題最嚴重的是南歐的西班牙，希臘年輕人失業率也高達38.5%、義大利則是27.8%、愛爾蘭26.9%、葡萄牙26.8%、瑞典23.1%、法國22.8%、芬蘭19.9%、英國19.6%。
在東歐前社會主義國家的年輕人也有覓職困難的問題，其中以斯洛伐克年輕人失業率最高，達33.3%，其次是立陶宛32.6%、拉脫維亞29.7%、保加利亞27.3%、匈牙利24.8%、波蘭23.6%、羅馬尼亞22.8%。
年輕人失業率在10%以下的歐盟國家，只有荷蘭7.1%、奧地利8.2%、德國9.1%。不過，這三個國家年輕人失業率仍高於所有年齡層人口的失業率。荷蘭的失業率是4.1%，奧地利是4%，德國是6.1%。1000812
（中央社記者林琳柏林12日專電）歐盟國家年齡15到24歲的年輕人有1/5找不到工作，多達500萬人，是歐盟地區最令人憂心的社會問題之一，其中又以西班牙最嚴重，年輕人失業率高達45.7%。
根據德國聯邦統計局資料，今年6月歐盟地區平均失業率9.4%，但年齡在15到24歲的年輕人失業率卻高達20.5%。
年輕人失業問題最嚴重的是南歐的西班牙，希臘年輕人失業率也高達38.5%、義大利則是27.8%、愛爾蘭26.9%、葡萄牙26.8%、瑞典23.1%、法國22.8%、芬蘭19.9%、英國19.6%。
在東歐前社會主義國家的年輕人也有覓職困難的問題，其中以斯洛伐克年輕人失業率最高，達33.3%，其次是立陶宛32.6%、拉脫維亞29.7%、保加利亞27.3%、匈牙利24.8%、波蘭23.6%、羅馬尼亞22.8%。
年輕人失業率在10%以下的歐盟國家，只有荷蘭7.1%、奧地利8.2%、德國9.1%。不過，這三個國家年輕人失業率仍高於所有年齡層人口的失業率。荷蘭的失業率是4.1%，奧地利是4%，德國是6.1%。1000812
Friday, August 12, 2011
商業周刊-專欄部落格-大師開講-新預算法案只會讓美國更貧困
經過了一番艱難的協商，美國總統歐巴馬在8月2日簽訂了美國預算法案，其中包括提高美國政府的債務限額、降低聯邦開支等，讓美國免於224年的歷史進程中第一次出現違約的可能。
但是這項條約存在三個主要缺陷：其中兩個利弊相互抵消，第三個缺陷卻威脅到美國舉國上下在未來數年內應該放在首位的任務——經濟成長。
第一個缺陷是政府開支降低的時機不恰當。當美國全國的經濟都處於低迷的時期，降低開支這一舉措可能會引發另一場大蕭條。
第二個缺陷是所制定的開支削減的力度不夠。立法機構對解決美國長期、不斷惡化的財政赤字問題力度不夠，但這麼一來，短期內替經濟帶來的危害就很有限。
第三個、也是危害最大的缺陷，是開支削減被應用到錯誤的地方。
由於國會中的民主黨幾乎擁有一致的信仰──保護主義和完整主義。他們認為美國上下最主要的福利計畫應該針對老年人，醫療保障和醫療系統，但是立法機構並沒有涉及到這兩個問題中的的任何一個。隨著7800萬出生於1946到1964年的嬰兒潮人口退休並且收取福利時，這些計畫所需要的花費會迅速增長，而這一花費也是政府在未來數年中，最主要的財政開支和預期赤字來源。但是由於國會共和黨強烈反對任何形式、任何時間或任何情況下的加稅，所以這項法案不可能依靠稅收增加來達成。
所有的開支削減都源自於聯邦預算的自由量裁（discretionary）部分。這一部分的預算不包括社會保險、醫療保險、針對貧困階層的醫療補助計畫，以及國債利息。這一削減使全部的聯邦開支減少三分之一，而大部分削減來自於國防預算；可是共和黨會在未來努力去維護國防預算。因此8月2日法案建立起的框架，主要是針對非國防專案上的聯邦預算赤字削減，然而這只占全部聯邦預算的10％。
這一削減只占了美國在未來數年間所需要取得的財政赤字削減規模的一小部分。更糟糕的是，自由量裁的非國防開支包括經濟成長所必需的專案，而經濟成長對美國未來繁榮和鞏固全球領導地位是萬萬不可缺少的。
首先，經濟成長是減少國家預算赤字最有效的手段。經濟成長率越快，無需通過上調稅率，政府就可以獲得更多收入。收入越多，財政赤字就會越小。
再者，經濟成長對於信守每一代美國人都有機會比上一代更富強這一承諾，尤為關鍵。這一承諾對每一個美國人來說都極為重要，被大眾稱為美國夢。
經濟成長對非美國籍的外國人來說也同樣重要。經濟成長可以確保美國在全球不斷擴張責任，這不僅有助於全球經濟，同時有助於維護歐洲，東亞以及中亞的穩定。
正如湯瑪斯‧弗里曼和我在我們即將出版的新書《這就是曾經的我們---美國是如何落後於自己扶持起的世界以及美國如何重新崛起》中解釋道：美國經濟繁榮的一個非常重要的因素，是國有和私有的夥伴關係制度，這種制度可以追溯到美國剛建國之時。但這種制度已經被8月2號建立的預算削減模式所破壞。
但是這項條約存在三個主要缺陷：其中兩個利弊相互抵消，第三個缺陷卻威脅到美國舉國上下在未來數年內應該放在首位的任務——經濟成長。
第一個缺陷是政府開支降低的時機不恰當。當美國全國的經濟都處於低迷的時期，降低開支這一舉措可能會引發另一場大蕭條。
第二個缺陷是所制定的開支削減的力度不夠。立法機構對解決美國長期、不斷惡化的財政赤字問題力度不夠，但這麼一來，短期內替經濟帶來的危害就很有限。
第三個、也是危害最大的缺陷，是開支削減被應用到錯誤的地方。
由於國會中的民主黨幾乎擁有一致的信仰──保護主義和完整主義。他們認為美國上下最主要的福利計畫應該針對老年人，醫療保障和醫療系統，但是立法機構並沒有涉及到這兩個問題中的的任何一個。隨著7800萬出生於1946到1964年的嬰兒潮人口退休並且收取福利時，這些計畫所需要的花費會迅速增長，而這一花費也是政府在未來數年中，最主要的財政開支和預期赤字來源。但是由於國會共和黨強烈反對任何形式、任何時間或任何情況下的加稅，所以這項法案不可能依靠稅收增加來達成。
所有的開支削減都源自於聯邦預算的自由量裁（discretionary）部分。這一部分的預算不包括社會保險、醫療保險、針對貧困階層的醫療補助計畫，以及國債利息。這一削減使全部的聯邦開支減少三分之一，而大部分削減來自於國防預算；可是共和黨會在未來努力去維護國防預算。因此8月2日法案建立起的框架，主要是針對非國防專案上的聯邦預算赤字削減，然而這只占全部聯邦預算的10％。
這一削減只占了美國在未來數年間所需要取得的財政赤字削減規模的一小部分。更糟糕的是，自由量裁的非國防開支包括經濟成長所必需的專案，而經濟成長對美國未來繁榮和鞏固全球領導地位是萬萬不可缺少的。
首先，經濟成長是減少國家預算赤字最有效的手段。經濟成長率越快，無需通過上調稅率，政府就可以獲得更多收入。收入越多，財政赤字就會越小。
再者，經濟成長對於信守每一代美國人都有機會比上一代更富強這一承諾，尤為關鍵。這一承諾對每一個美國人來說都極為重要，被大眾稱為美國夢。
經濟成長對非美國籍的外國人來說也同樣重要。經濟成長可以確保美國在全球不斷擴張責任，這不僅有助於全球經濟，同時有助於維護歐洲，東亞以及中亞的穩定。
正如湯瑪斯‧弗里曼和我在我們即將出版的新書《這就是曾經的我們---美國是如何落後於自己扶持起的世界以及美國如何重新崛起》中解釋道：美國經濟繁榮的一個非常重要的因素，是國有和私有的夥伴關係制度，這種制度可以追溯到美國剛建國之時。但這種制度已經被8月2號建立的預算削減模式所破壞。
這種夥伴關係有五個組成部分：為了培養出一批掌握尖端技術的人才，而不斷擴大教育普及程度；在例如道路、能源工廠、貿易港口等基礎設施上投資；為了擴大尖端領域方面的知識，從而研發新產品給其研究及其發展注入資金；制定能夠吸引和留住從國外湧來的人才的移民政策；制定經濟管理條例，既可以避免像2008年一樣金融體系接近崩潰的情況，又不至於過於嚴格苛刻，以至於扼殺了能夠推動經濟成長的冒險精神和創新能力。
美國經濟成長需要資金，而那些資金包含在了自由量裁非國防聯邦預算中，從長遠來看，減少這些項目會降低美國的經濟成長，帶來國內外的負面影響。藉由減少教育、基礎設施、研究及發展方面的開支，就好比砍掉三根手指來試圖減肥──絕大部分的重量依然存在，但是人一生的前途將會受到極大的損失。
通過減少赤字來上調債務限額是正確的，但是8月2號的法案的方法是錯誤的。除非能夠有更多赤字削減來自減少福利以及增加收入，而並非來自對經濟成長極為重要的的專案上，否則就會使美國變得更貧困，更脆弱，也會給世界增加更多的不確定因素。
美國經濟成長需要資金，而那些資金包含在了自由量裁非國防聯邦預算中，從長遠來看，減少這些項目會降低美國的經濟成長，帶來國內外的負面影響。藉由減少教育、基礎設施、研究及發展方面的開支，就好比砍掉三根手指來試圖減肥──絕大部分的重量依然存在，但是人一生的前途將會受到極大的損失。
通過減少赤字來上調債務限額是正確的，但是8月2號的法案的方法是錯誤的。除非能夠有更多赤字削減來自減少福利以及增加收入，而並非來自對經濟成長極為重要的的專案上，否則就會使美國變得更貧困，更脆弱，也會給世界增加更多的不確定因素。
- 作者簡介_邁克爾‧曼德爾巴姆 [ 隱藏 ]邁克爾‧曼德爾巴姆（Michael Mandelbaum），約翰霍普金斯大學高級國際研究外交政策專家，與湯瑪斯‧弗里曼合著有即將出版的新書《曾經---美國是如何落後於自己扶持起的世界以及美國如何重新崛起(That Used To Be Us: How America Fell Behind in the World It Invented and How We Can Come Back.)》
Thursday, August 11, 2011
KNM downgraded on reduced earnings and PER forecasts
Written by Financial Daily Wednesday, 10 August 2011 11:30
KNM Group Bhd
(Aug 9, RM1.51)
Downgrade to reduce at RM1.58 with revised target price of RM1.32 (from RM2.21): We are downgrading KNM to a “reduce” (from “buy”) with a lower target price (TP) of RM1.32 (from RM2.21) following our 3% to 36% cut in FY11 to FY13 earnings, coupled with a reduced CY12 target price-earnings ratio (PER) of eight times (from 13 times). The sharp 36%/3%/3% cuts in FY11/FY12/FY13 earnings forecasts are mainly due to our expectation of further delay in the commencement of KNM’s RM2.2 billion Peterborough Energy Park engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) work. As the project has yet to reach the financial close at this juncture, we now expect the EPC work to commence in CY12.
We have lowered our target PER for KNM from 13 times CY12 earnings to eight times in view of higher company risk premium and possible earnings/contracts disappointments. We think the street may be overly optimistic on KNM’s FY11 pre-tax profit forecast of RM120 million (70% above Affin’s forecast). KNM has reported RM6 million to RM7 million of quarterly pre-tax profit for the last two quarters and we do not expect a drastic improvement in 2QCY11 as the group is likely to continue billing on its older, lower margin contracts because:
(i) The delay in commencement of Peterborough EPC work is a disappointment. To recap, the Peterborough EPC contract was awarded by Peterborough Renewable Energy Ltd, controlled by a group of local businessmen, in December 2010 to construct a £450 million (RM2.2 billion) energy park. While we remain optimistic and expect the project to commence in FY12, any further delay in financial close will be detrimental to KNM’s share price;
(ii) Possible disappointment in concluding the RM17 billion Gulf Asian Petroleum (GAP) contract. GAP is still in the preliminary project planning stage and it has yet to complete the front-end engineering and design (FEED) study and has not secured the project financing nor entered into any supply and offtake agreements; and (iii) In view of the rising global stock market volatility and economic uncertainties, investors may shun KNM and switch into more defensive stocks, or other oil and gas companies with better earnings visibility.
We are not optimistic on KNM’s immediate term share price outlook in view of these concerns, but we think the group’s strong order book of RM5.5 billion and steep share price correction (-44% year-to-date) will help to limit the downside to around our TP of RM1.32. Earnings disappointment and downgrade in street forecast is a key de-rating catalyst. Note that our revised FY11/FY12 forecasts are 46% and 27% below street. — Affin IB Research, Aug 9
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 10, 2011.
KNM Group Bhd
(Aug 9, RM1.51)
Downgrade to reduce at RM1.58 with revised target price of RM1.32 (from RM2.21): We are downgrading KNM to a “reduce” (from “buy”) with a lower target price (TP) of RM1.32 (from RM2.21) following our 3% to 36% cut in FY11 to FY13 earnings, coupled with a reduced CY12 target price-earnings ratio (PER) of eight times (from 13 times). The sharp 36%/3%/3% cuts in FY11/FY12/FY13 earnings forecasts are mainly due to our expectation of further delay in the commencement of KNM’s RM2.2 billion Peterborough Energy Park engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) work. As the project has yet to reach the financial close at this juncture, we now expect the EPC work to commence in CY12.
We have lowered our target PER for KNM from 13 times CY12 earnings to eight times in view of higher company risk premium and possible earnings/contracts disappointments. We think the street may be overly optimistic on KNM’s FY11 pre-tax profit forecast of RM120 million (70% above Affin’s forecast). KNM has reported RM6 million to RM7 million of quarterly pre-tax profit for the last two quarters and we do not expect a drastic improvement in 2QCY11 as the group is likely to continue billing on its older, lower margin contracts because:
(i) The delay in commencement of Peterborough EPC work is a disappointment. To recap, the Peterborough EPC contract was awarded by Peterborough Renewable Energy Ltd, controlled by a group of local businessmen, in December 2010 to construct a £450 million (RM2.2 billion) energy park. While we remain optimistic and expect the project to commence in FY12, any further delay in financial close will be detrimental to KNM’s share price;
(ii) Possible disappointment in concluding the RM17 billion Gulf Asian Petroleum (GAP) contract. GAP is still in the preliminary project planning stage and it has yet to complete the front-end engineering and design (FEED) study and has not secured the project financing nor entered into any supply and offtake agreements; and (iii) In view of the rising global stock market volatility and economic uncertainties, investors may shun KNM and switch into more defensive stocks, or other oil and gas companies with better earnings visibility.
We are not optimistic on KNM’s immediate term share price outlook in view of these concerns, but we think the group’s strong order book of RM5.5 billion and steep share price correction (-44% year-to-date) will help to limit the downside to around our TP of RM1.32. Earnings disappointment and downgrade in street forecast is a key de-rating catalyst. Note that our revised FY11/FY12 forecasts are 46% and 27% below street. — Affin IB Research, Aug 9
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 10, 2011.
CIMB Research has Sell on Masterskill
Written by theedgemalaysia.com
Wednesday, 10 August 2011 08:45
KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research has a technical Sell on Masterskill Education Group Bhd (MEGB) at RM1.69 at which is its trading at a FY12 price-to-earnings of 5.0 times and price-to-book value of 1.3 times.
It said on Wednesday, Aug 10 that trading has been lethargic since prices violated its triangle support. With the candles still trading below all its key moving averages, it doubted any rebound would be sustainable.
“Hence, our strategy here is to unload on strength, preferably near the RM1.80-RM1.82 resistances,” it said.
CIMB Research said the indicators were still showing signs of consolidation. MACD has slipped into the negative territory while RSI is oversold.
“Unless prices swing back above its 30-day SMA now at RM1.93, we think the bears have the upper hand here. On the downside, support is seen at RM1.59 and RM1.45,” it said.
Wednesday, 10 August 2011 08:45
KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research has a technical Sell on Masterskill Education Group Bhd (MEGB) at RM1.69 at which is its trading at a FY12 price-to-earnings of 5.0 times and price-to-book value of 1.3 times.
It said on Wednesday, Aug 10 that trading has been lethargic since prices violated its triangle support. With the candles still trading below all its key moving averages, it doubted any rebound would be sustainable.
“Hence, our strategy here is to unload on strength, preferably near the RM1.80-RM1.82 resistances,” it said.
CIMB Research said the indicators were still showing signs of consolidation. MACD has slipped into the negative territory while RSI is oversold.
“Unless prices swing back above its 30-day SMA now at RM1.93, we think the bears have the upper hand here. On the downside, support is seen at RM1.59 and RM1.45,” it said.
EPF sells 30m YTL Power shares
Written by Joseph Chin of theedgemalaysia.com
Thursday, 11 August 2011 11:55
KUALA LUMPUR: The Employees Provident Fund (EPF), the second largest shareholder of YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD [], disposed of 30.13 million shares from June 30 up to Aug 4.
Filings with Bursa Malaysia showed the EPF’s stake was reduced to 729.17 million shares or 10.09% from 759.31 million units or 10.51%. The 30.13 million shares accounted for 0.42%. The share price was trading from RM2.20 to RM1.97 as at Aug 4.
The largest shareholder is YTL Corp with 44.98% or 3.275 billion shares.
Maybank Investment Research said YTL Power was likely to record better than expected 4QFY11 results on reduced fuel cost at PowerSeraya.
“But, with dividends curtailed by its Indonesian expansion plans, widening losses at YES and potential reduction in tariffs at the Paka & Pasir Gudang IPP, its appeal as a high dividend yielding stock is waning. Downgrade to Hold with a reduced TP of RM2.10,” it said in a report on Aug 4.
The research house said it came to understand that the RM681 million cash raised from the 15% stake sale in PT Jawa Power will likely go towards bidding for a 1,000MW coal fired IPP in Indonesia.
“Also, YES is recording average revenue per user (ARPUs) of only RM30, the minimum monthly charge (versus our FY12 assumption of RM49) despite up-selling efforts. With a RM500 million cost base for YES, YTL Power is likely to conserve cash,” it said.
Maybank Research said the government’s recently set-up MyPower Corp to review existing power purchase agreements (PPA) is evidence that it is serious about reducing IPP tariffs albeit in exchange for concession extensions.
“We estimate that Paka and Pasir Gudang IPP generate some RM400m in free cash flows (FCF) per annum and easily contributes half of YTLP’s dividends. With this FCF source under threat, YTLP is again likely to conserve cash,” it said.
The research house said it maintained its earnings estimates pending 4QFY11 results but slashed its yearly dividend per share forecast from 13.1 sen to 9.4 sen.
Thursday, 11 August 2011 11:55
KUALA LUMPUR: The Employees Provident Fund (EPF), the second largest shareholder of YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD [], disposed of 30.13 million shares from June 30 up to Aug 4.
Filings with Bursa Malaysia showed the EPF’s stake was reduced to 729.17 million shares or 10.09% from 759.31 million units or 10.51%. The 30.13 million shares accounted for 0.42%. The share price was trading from RM2.20 to RM1.97 as at Aug 4.
The largest shareholder is YTL Corp with 44.98% or 3.275 billion shares.
Maybank Investment Research said YTL Power was likely to record better than expected 4QFY11 results on reduced fuel cost at PowerSeraya.
“But, with dividends curtailed by its Indonesian expansion plans, widening losses at YES and potential reduction in tariffs at the Paka & Pasir Gudang IPP, its appeal as a high dividend yielding stock is waning. Downgrade to Hold with a reduced TP of RM2.10,” it said in a report on Aug 4.
The research house said it came to understand that the RM681 million cash raised from the 15% stake sale in PT Jawa Power will likely go towards bidding for a 1,000MW coal fired IPP in Indonesia.
“Also, YES is recording average revenue per user (ARPUs) of only RM30, the minimum monthly charge (versus our FY12 assumption of RM49) despite up-selling efforts. With a RM500 million cost base for YES, YTL Power is likely to conserve cash,” it said.
Maybank Research said the government’s recently set-up MyPower Corp to review existing power purchase agreements (PPA) is evidence that it is serious about reducing IPP tariffs albeit in exchange for concession extensions.
“We estimate that Paka and Pasir Gudang IPP generate some RM400m in free cash flows (FCF) per annum and easily contributes half of YTLP’s dividends. With this FCF source under threat, YTLP is again likely to conserve cash,” it said.
The research house said it maintained its earnings estimates pending 4QFY11 results but slashed its yearly dividend per share forecast from 13.1 sen to 9.4 sen.
股災五大教戰守則 - 商業周刊
看起來，引爆全球股災及讓大家開始質疑二次衰退即將來臨的兇手－美國，也已經自顧不暇 ，罕見的國家債信評等降級加上景氣持續低迷不振，這是第一支架不穩；其次歐洲的債信違約國家層出不窮，恐怕出現烽火連環燒，此乃第二支架傾斜。
至於原先全球眾所期盼依賴的中國，近來由於當局緊縮銀根，打壓房市，勞工意識抬頭，業主成本墊高，中小企業瀕臨倒閉潮，股市房市也低迷許久，尚無起色，這是第三支架滑倒； 龐大經濟體的日本， 自從大地震、海嘯後，執政黨政權脆弱之外，迄今竟然也束手無策，這是另外的第四支架疲乏！
我很快的簡單描述現況，讓讀者知道，這次猛然爆發的金融困境，險峻依舊，但也不是世界末日，不用太悲觀！
因為：一、全球資金並未出現流動性不足的問題；二、有些問題存在已久，許多市場的抗體已具免疫力；三、在最恐慌時，保守資金與投機性資金都會大量撤出，瞬間影響各種商品劇烈波動，然而，這僅是短暫的現象；四、等到事情稍微穩定之後，被過度拋售及賤賣的有價值商品，一定會在短期間又快速彈升到合理價位 。
這時候該怎麼做呢？
一、如果原先持股比重不高的人，單筆申購及定期定額還是要持續動作，只有危機出現才有超低的價格讓你便宜買進；二、持股滿檔的人，必須快速檢視部位內容，是否過度集中在風險高的區域或族群，如果是的話，馬上要做調整及調降；三、平時如果做好動態調整組合內容， 股市、債市、現金至少區隔三等分，上下誤差不大的話，則沒有啥好恐慌的；四、面臨景氣可能再度低迷的疑慮，適度拉高現金比重，以防不時之需是有必要的動作；五、除非第一天不管賺賠就馬上出場，不然先冷靜一下，別急著做決策， 觀察幾天再出手也不遲 ，先跑的人，不一定先贏。
至於原先全球眾所期盼依賴的中國，近來由於當局緊縮銀根，打壓房市，勞工意識抬頭，業主成本墊高，中小企業瀕臨倒閉潮，股市房市也低迷許久，尚無起色，這是第三支架滑倒； 龐大經濟體的日本， 自從大地震、海嘯後，執政黨政權脆弱之外，迄今竟然也束手無策，這是另外的第四支架疲乏！
我很快的簡單描述現況，讓讀者知道，這次猛然爆發的金融困境，險峻依舊，但也不是世界末日，不用太悲觀！
因為：一、全球資金並未出現流動性不足的問題；二、有些問題存在已久，許多市場的抗體已具免疫力；三、在最恐慌時，保守資金與投機性資金都會大量撤出，瞬間影響各種商品劇烈波動，然而，這僅是短暫的現象；四、等到事情稍微穩定之後，被過度拋售及賤賣的有價值商品，一定會在短期間又快速彈升到合理價位 。
這時候該怎麼做呢？
一、如果原先持股比重不高的人，單筆申購及定期定額還是要持續動作，只有危機出現才有超低的價格讓你便宜買進；二、持股滿檔的人，必須快速檢視部位內容，是否過度集中在風險高的區域或族群，如果是的話，馬上要做調整及調降；三、平時如果做好動態調整組合內容， 股市、債市、現金至少區隔三等分，上下誤差不大的話，則沒有啥好恐慌的；四、面臨景氣可能再度低迷的疑慮，適度拉高現金比重，以防不時之需是有必要的動作；五、除非第一天不管賺賠就馬上出場，不然先冷靜一下，別急著做決策， 觀察幾天再出手也不遲 ，先跑的人，不一定先贏。
【延伸閱讀】看盤報告
台股經破底、洗盤及融資追繳斷頭後，籌碼即刻又大幅換手，此時最易看清楚哪些股票有特定人士在照顧，這些屆時將是反彈急先鋒；如果想要搶跌深反彈者，上述標的可列優先觀察名單，「富在險中求」的時機又來了。
台股
1.味全：盛夏及中元節，飲料需求大
2.寶島科：轉投資金可國際，獲利豐、大陸布點潛力大
3.冠軍：積極開發附加價值產品，獲利成長
外匯瑞郎：純屬避險功能，漲幅已大
基金1.印尼基金：年輕有活力，股市具潛力
2.亞洲債券基金：亞洲國家持續升息中
3.泰國基金：政權和平轉移，可望有新氣象
世界二次衰退的可能？ - 商業周刊
短短地三個交易日內，全球的股市經歷了無比震撼。美國時間8月4日，道瓊工業指數暴跌五百多點；第二天8月5日小漲六十幾點；隔週一8月8日，美股再度暴跌五百多點。千點的跌幅震撼世界，亦蔓延到其他股市。
英國金融時報指數、德國DAX指數、法國券商公會指數等歐洲國家從4日到8日三個交易日內，各約有10％左右的跌幅；希臘股市大跌而禁止放空，韓股急挫暫停交易5分鐘。而台灣，從1日收盤的8701點，到8日收盤的7552點，六個交易日內消失一千兩百點，尤其是5日大跌464點、8日大跌300點，短線急殺將近10％，讓許多爸爸在父親節食不下嚥。
同時，『美國二次衰退』一詞迅速的躍入眾人眼前。現在是景氣復甦反轉為景氣衰退的轉折點？
美國第一次經濟衰退：2007年次級房貸風暴引發2008年全球金融海嘯
『美國第一次衰退』指得是2007年的經濟衰退，並在2008年9月起經濟情勢開始失控崩入谷底。從百年金融巨擘雷曼兄弟倒閉開始，許多大型的金融機構倒閉或被政府接管，並引發全球性的金融海嘯。
美國第一次經濟衰退的原因起源於『次級房貸風暴』。
在美國，用貸款來消費是很普遍的現象，某些貸款公司為了獲取高利息收入，將貸款貸給了風險較高，諸如失業、信用有瑕疵的人，這些人被稱為次級貸款者。
把資金貸放出去的投資銀行們，需要資金來投資其他商品，以賺取更大利潤，於是開始動腦筋，研究出了新型衍生性金融商品－「債務抵押債券」（Collateralized Debt Obligation，CDO），把這些次級貸款者的債權，包裝起來賣給了其他投資人與某些基金，換成了現金，連風險都給大家一起承擔。
這些過程，美國政府並沒有介入阻止，他們認為：成敗得失應由市場自己決定，損益由市場自己負擔。
此時投資銀行手上有了現金，又再貸放給新的次級貸款者，再把債權包裝起來賣出去賺取現金，這一切就如同滾雪球一般的愈滾愈大。
當房價從高點滑落，甚至房價低於房貸金額時，使得還款能力不佳的次級貸款者寧願信用破產而不還錢。
至此利益的供應鏈源頭開始崩裂，最源頭的次級貸款者還不出錢或不還錢，導致上一層的金融機構破產，許多機構被牽連而無法還錢給更上一層的單位，最終就像滾雪球一般讓許多金融機構撐不住而倒閉，或是被接管。
流動性危機加重經濟惡劣的情勢
2007年，美國爆發次級房貸的危機，這個自由經濟下的不定時炸彈引爆了。崩潰的債權不只壓垮了投資公司、銀行們，還波及了整個世界…
次級房貸爆發後，銀行對可能無法回收的債權深感恐懼，以及多項虧損讓銀行需保有一定水位的現金，伴隨而自的是流動性危機，銀行不敢放出現金貸款給社會大眾與企業，對消費與投資影響甚劇。
當時全球的經濟交易量急凍，幾乎跌入1929年經濟大蕭條後從沒見過的水準。除了各國經濟情勢受到重創外，眾多投資人在2007年到2008年之前亦慘賠出場。
然而，並非所有投資人都慘陪出場。尤記得2007年7月時台股上萬點的局勢無比樂觀，而後忽然爆發出次貸危機重創股市，但在2007年初時次貸問題其實就略有傳聞，並引發小小數波的股市回檔。
知情者提早下車，而讓大眾投資人相對受到重大損失的陰謀論喧囂直上。這在資訊傳遞速度有異的世界是有可能的，簡單來說，就是內線與外線的差別。
世界二次衰退的可能？
眼前這一切情勢太不對勁了，週二台灣加權指數一度大跌四百點，週一曾大跌快五百點，上週五也是三百點達陣。
市場這次沒有具體原因的集體下跌，不若前幾次的921地震、次貸風暴、雷曼兄弟倒閉引起之金融海嘯、歐債危機、中東茉莉花革命、311日本地震與福島核災等天災或人禍。
並且，歐洲債務危機在七月已經反應過，而八月美國的債務上限危機暫時解除，即使信評公司標普將美國信評從AAA降為AA+，但在消息傳出當下美股跌幅反應並不多。
而後台美卻皆兩三天內，出現千點跌幅。
同時資訊最靈敏的台灣外資一度佈下近兩萬五千口的空單，並從2日賣超45億台股、3日賣超178億、4日賣超71億、5日賣超156億、8日更賣超315億、9日賣超330億。
這一切非常非常的不尋常。由記得次貸危機、金融海嘯時，外資反應迅速急速撤離投資市場。
會不會是有不知道的東西要爆炸了！？
這幾年來股票市場的趨勢是對資訊反應迅速，大量的出現緩漲急跌的特色，股票市場不會有平白的大跌一千點。要嘛就是確認事情沒很嚴重而展開急彈，否則就是後面可能還有千點跌幅，情勢不是大好就是大壞，近期內投資風險性極高。
美國聯邦準備理事會的反應
而在美國時間8月9日，也就是台灣時間8月10日的清晨，美國聯邦準備理事會公開發表談話：『維持超低利率至2013年』。因為聯準會認為經濟的成長已明顯趨緩，就業市場惡化種種因素，確認經濟展望下滑的風險已增加。
為了要挽救不佳的美國經濟情勢及全球市場。美國宣稱維持低利率政策，並且讓美國道瓊工業指數9日展開429點的大幅反彈。
然而這政策還不算眾人討論的第三次量化寬鬆政策（QE3），僅是一種目標宣示而已。2008年間美國數次降息引起短線反彈，之後股市仍然一路搭電梯向下的歷史經驗不遠。探索外資大砍股市、數天內台美股市跌逾千點，才是我們最應該關注的重點。
原因究竟是美國面臨第二次經濟衰退，或是2011年金融風暴即將被引爆？我們還不知道。這幾天應該就可以得到更新的消息，到時我們再來討論。
作者簡介＿林祖儀
林祖儀，現為城邦出版集團財金類簽約作家、臺北市立文山社區大學經濟學講師、政治大學證券研習社社課講師，並經常受邀在政大、東吳、中原、師大與文山社大等地演講。擅長財經新聞分析。著作包括《看財經新聞解讀經濟現象》《興味盎然的經濟理論》和《一冊通曉圖解貨幣學》。最大的興趣流浪於不同的咖啡館，從飄渺的意識中找靈感…
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Aug 5th, 2011 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集
附表是根据7月22日的闭市价，以去年的盈利和股息，计算出股价/资产比、本益比及周息率，作为投资参考。
我们只选有盈利及有派发股息的公司，若盈利和股息两者之中，缺一即不入选。
附表阅读方法：
1.股价/资产比：
是股票市价和每股净有形资产的比值，是从资产的角度衡量股价是否合理，如果是在1以下的话，表示价值被低估，值得投资。
例如ASAS去年12月31日时的每股净有形资产价值为1.93令吉以1.08令吉的股价计算，股价/资产比为1.08令吉÷1.93令吉＝0.56，表示你以0.56令吉买进价值1令吉的资产，等于是半价买进地产，价值显然是被低估了。
地价大幅升值
然后你再翻开ASAS 2010年的年报第88页，该公司在去年12月31日时所拥有1446英亩地皮，大部份是在1994至2000年之间陆续买进的，多数坐落在北海、大山脚、高渊、爪夷、双溪巴甲和新邦安拔一带。
这十多年来，这些地皮的价值已大增，如果以市价重估该公司的地皮的话，每股净有形资产价值必比1.93令吉高出一截，可见此股价值被低估的一斑。
2.本益比：
ASAS去年每股净利为4.76仙，以1.08令吉的股价计算，本益比为1.08令吉÷0.976令吉＝11.1倍。
该公司今年首季每股净赚3.41仙，如果接下来的3季能保持此赚率的话，则全年净利将增至13.64仙（3.41仙x4 =13.64仙），以1.08令吉的股价计算，本益比将降至7.9倍。
释放潜在价值
该公司主席在年报中说：政府将建筑一条24公里的新路，从峇都茅通往峇都加湾，这条路将切过该公司的部份土地，因此该公司的地皮将进一步增值，而且将提高赚率，盈利可望进一步提高，将这些因素考虑在内，则1.08令吉的股价属偏低。
3.周息率：
ASAS派发5仙股息，以1.08令吉的股价计算，毛股息率为0.05令吉÷1.08令吉＝4.6%，尚属合理。
投资者可以模仿上述办法，分析附表中的产业股，深入挖掘潜在价值，从中选出几只最好及最适合你投资的股只，买进后长期持有，应该可以赚钱。
考虑相关因素
以上是以资产、本益比和周息率的角度评估股票价值，在买进之前，最好还要做更多的功课：
1.有关公司的地库有多少？何时买进？可以供发展多少年？
2.地皮的地点何在？该区有屋子的需求吗？
3.公司的负债情况。
4.已卖出屋子，但未收到款有多少？（Unbill Sale）。
5.公司5年来的业绩如何？
6.管理层是否积极发展业务？
只有在考虑了所有的因素，才决定是否值得买进。这就是我所谓的“严格筛选”后才投资。
附表是从90多家产业上市公司中选出44家，全部资料取自年报。
最佳选择长期投资
此表中之股票只供参考，并非推荐购买，大家可以从这44家中，进一步研究后，从中选出你认为最好的买进，作为长期投资。
必须指出的是附表没有包括两家新上市公司IVORY（玮力）和UOA发展，这是两家好公司，但由于新上市，未派股息，故不入选。
大家要贴身跟踪上市公司的进展，以作出更新的评估，例如Ivory最近标得槟城的102.7英亩地点极佳的地皮，阿马证券（Am Research）7月26日的研究报告中，说该公司这段新地皮，发展价值可能高达100亿令吉，该公司每股重估后的资产价值高达4令吉，去年每股净赚 22.25仙，今年将增至26.1仙，已卖出但未收款的销售额（Unbill Sale）3亿2000万令吉，因此该报告认为Ivory的公平价格为2令吉40仙。
另一个例子是成隆机构（DIJAYA CORP）一改过去“以守为攻”的政策，采取“以攻为守”的新策略，积极收购地皮，大力发展业务，前景看好。
公司若有新的发展，就应加以重新评估，以免失之交臂。
附表是根据7月22日的闭市价，以去年的盈利和股息，计算出股价/资产比、本益比及周息率，作为投资参考。
我们只选有盈利及有派发股息的公司，若盈利和股息两者之中，缺一即不入选。
附表阅读方法：
1.股价/资产比：
是股票市价和每股净有形资产的比值，是从资产的角度衡量股价是否合理，如果是在1以下的话，表示价值被低估，值得投资。
例如ASAS去年12月31日时的每股净有形资产价值为1.93令吉以1.08令吉的股价计算，股价/资产比为1.08令吉÷1.93令吉＝0.56，表示你以0.56令吉买进价值1令吉的资产，等于是半价买进地产，价值显然是被低估了。
地价大幅升值
然后你再翻开ASAS 2010年的年报第88页，该公司在去年12月31日时所拥有1446英亩地皮，大部份是在1994至2000年之间陆续买进的，多数坐落在北海、大山脚、高渊、爪夷、双溪巴甲和新邦安拔一带。
这十多年来，这些地皮的价值已大增，如果以市价重估该公司的地皮的话，每股净有形资产价值必比1.93令吉高出一截，可见此股价值被低估的一斑。
2.本益比：
ASAS去年每股净利为4.76仙，以1.08令吉的股价计算，本益比为1.08令吉÷0.976令吉＝11.1倍。
该公司今年首季每股净赚3.41仙，如果接下来的3季能保持此赚率的话，则全年净利将增至13.64仙（3.41仙x4 =13.64仙），以1.08令吉的股价计算，本益比将降至7.9倍。
释放潜在价值
该公司主席在年报中说：政府将建筑一条24公里的新路，从峇都茅通往峇都加湾，这条路将切过该公司的部份土地，因此该公司的地皮将进一步增值，而且将提高赚率，盈利可望进一步提高，将这些因素考虑在内，则1.08令吉的股价属偏低。
3.周息率：
ASAS派发5仙股息，以1.08令吉的股价计算，毛股息率为0.05令吉÷1.08令吉＝4.6%，尚属合理。
投资者可以模仿上述办法，分析附表中的产业股，深入挖掘潜在价值，从中选出几只最好及最适合你投资的股只，买进后长期持有，应该可以赚钱。
考虑相关因素
以上是以资产、本益比和周息率的角度评估股票价值，在买进之前，最好还要做更多的功课：
1.有关公司的地库有多少？何时买进？可以供发展多少年？
2.地皮的地点何在？该区有屋子的需求吗？
3.公司的负债情况。
4.已卖出屋子，但未收到款有多少？（Unbill Sale）。
5.公司5年来的业绩如何？
6.管理层是否积极发展业务？
只有在考虑了所有的因素，才决定是否值得买进。这就是我所谓的“严格筛选”后才投资。
附表是从90多家产业上市公司中选出44家，全部资料取自年报。
最佳选择长期投资
此表中之股票只供参考，并非推荐购买，大家可以从这44家中，进一步研究后，从中选出你认为最好的买进，作为长期投资。
必须指出的是附表没有包括两家新上市公司IVORY（玮力）和UOA发展，这是两家好公司，但由于新上市，未派股息，故不入选。
大家要贴身跟踪上市公司的进展，以作出更新的评估，例如Ivory最近标得槟城的102.7英亩地点极佳的地皮，阿马证券（Am Research）7月26日的研究报告中，说该公司这段新地皮，发展价值可能高达100亿令吉，该公司每股重估后的资产价值高达4令吉，去年每股净赚 22.25仙，今年将增至26.1仙，已卖出但未收款的销售额（Unbill Sale）3亿2000万令吉，因此该报告认为Ivory的公平价格为2令吉40仙。
另一个例子是成隆机构（DIJAYA CORP）一改过去“以守为攻”的政策，采取“以攻为守”的新策略，积极收购地皮，大力发展业务，前景看好。
公司若有新的发展，就应加以重新评估，以免失之交臂。
分享锦集:产业股被低估
Jul 29th, 2011 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集
绿野集团副主席丹斯里李金友受报界访问时宣称：假如他有足够的资金的话，他会买完所有上市产业股，因为它们的价值被低估得离谱（Crazy）。
此话出自一名产业界名人之口，实在值得我们深思。
不但深思，而且应该深入研究上市产业公司，看看以它们目前的股价，其股票价值是否一如丹斯里李所说的，价值被低估到离谱的地步。
低价入股良机
如果真的是这样，那么，从反向投资的角度，也许产业股股价不振，提供了一个低价入股产业公司的良机。
在过去两年中，房地产价值暴涨，涨幅由数十巴仙至数百巴仙不等，视产业地点及种类而定。
上市产业公司都拥有宝贵的房产和地皮，而且多数是在多年前，甚至一、二十年前买进的，买价非常低廉，现在价值均已暴涨，产业股的价值水涨船高，照理股价应该跟着上升才对，但产业股的股价表现却每况愈下，落后于大势甚远，实在令人费解。
上市公司所拥有的产业可以分为两类：
第一类是已落成的产业，如办公大楼、购物中心、酒店、工厂、高尔夫球场等，作为长期投资，以收取租金，使公司有稳定的收入。
不用说，这些年来，这些产业已经大幅度增值，市值肯定比账目中的价值上升了一大截。
第二类是地皮。
产业公司的主要业务，是买进地皮，分割成许多小段的屋地，建屋出售，以赚取利润，这也是大部份上市产业公司主要的盈利来源。
为了确保他们所拥有的地库，足以供多年发展之用，上市产业公司通常会买进及囤存面积相当大的地皮，以确保业务不至因为缺乏土地而中断。
这些公司囤存地皮，就好像货仓囤存货物一样，所以叫“地库”。
每一家上市产业公司的年报，都会列出所拥有地皮的地点、面积、种类（例如农业地、屋地、商用地等），买进日期及买价（或是重估价）。通常是在年报最后数页，与30名最大股东名单相毗邻。
地价翻几倍
假如你细读年报中的“产业名单”（List of Properties）的话，你会发现，许多地皮是在一、二十年前买进的，买价低得离谱，十多二十年来，地价已不知翻了多少番，目前的价格，肯定比“账面价值”高数倍，甚至数十倍。
5月7日，我曾在本专栏发表一篇“3000令吉可买多少地？”的文章，那是我偶尔重读柏年（Brem）的年报，有感而作的，17年前，柏年以 3000令吉，在巴生的武吉拉惹买进4.7英亩的永久权土地，收藏到现在，价值恐怕已上升了数十倍，但在该公司的年报中，这4.7英亩地皮的价值还是 3000令吉，其价值被低估的程度可想而知。
其实，假如你逐家细读上市公司的年报的话，此类情况俯拾即是，可见产业股价值被低估并非耸人听闻。
账面价值计算法
上市条例规定，产业公司所拥有的地皮，如果是作为“发展”（即建屋出售）用途的话，只准以“成本”（买价）入账，不准以重估价值入账。
理由是这些地皮在建屋后就卖掉，所以是属“贸易资产”，其性质跟制造业的原料相同（地皮就是建屋的原料），所以不准以重估后的价值入账，以防止制造虚胖的资产价值。
成本入账
所以，上市产业公司买进作为“发展”用途的地皮，只准以成本入账。
这些在十多二十年前买进的地皮，价值已不知涨了多少倍，但在公司的账目中，十多二十年来，每年仍保持买进时的价值，这个价值，称为“账面价值”（Book Value），以区别于“重估价值”。
十多年前，公司以每英亩3万令吉买进的地皮，现在已涨至50万令吉，但在公司的账面中，价值还是3万令吉，这3万令吉就是“账面价值”。
这种情形，就好像你在20年前，以3万令吉买进吉隆坡孟沙区的一间双层排屋，在你个人的财产账中，仍保持3万令吉，这3万令吉就是你的财产的“账面价值”。
现在这间排屋的价值已涨至100万令吉以上，假如你重估屋子的价值的话，你的“身家”早已超过百万令吉，所以，根据“账面价值”，你的身家只有3万令吉，实际上你是一名百万富翁。
同样的情形，许多上市产业公司在十多二十年前买进的地皮，收藏至今，价值早已上升了10倍至数10倍不等，但是在公司的账目中，这些地皮还是保持买进时的价值，就是“账面价值”。
产业公司根据地皮的“账面价值”，计算出它的资产总值，再根据这总值计算出每股的净有形资产价值（NTA），这就是公司的“账面价值”。
用这种方法计算出来的每股资产价值，假设是1令吉50仙的话，如果公司按市价重估（作为参考价，不用作入账）其地皮的价值的话，每股资产价值可能增至4令吉，假如公司以市价脱售这些地皮，套取现金的话，股东每股可以取回4令吉的现金。
低过NTA
然而目前的股价，可能只是1令吉，甚至比1令吉50仙的账面每股资产价值更低，产业股被低估，再明显不过了。
我曾加以统计，发现80%以上产业股的股价，低过其每股净有形资产价值（NTA），其被低估情况可想而知。
最近美合实业（Merge Housing）和侨丰产业（OSK Properties）的大股东分别以每股65仙和87仙全面献购小股东的股票，假如你阅读两公司的财报的话，你会发现，美合和侨丰的每股净有形资产价值分别为1令吉11仙和1令吉74仙，比献购价几乎高一倍，不要忘记这还是“账面价值”。
假如两公司重估其地皮的话，每股净有形资产价值可能更高，可见两家公司的大股东，是通过全面献购，以半价购买两公司的地皮。
请注意，是“账面价值”的半价，不是重估后的半价。
买进前须严加筛选
从以下的事实，也可以证明丹斯里李金友指上市产业公司的股票被低估到离谱的地步，是有道理的：
●以目前产业股的市值（每股股价x股票总数＝市值），要买到他们目前所拥有的地皮，是不可能的事。
●以上市产业公司目前的资金，根据市价买地皮，恐怕只能买到目前的一半或更少的地皮。
●大部份产业公司，假如按市价脱售所拥有的地皮的话，股东可以取回比每股净有形资产价值（NTA）更高，甚至比目前股价高出1倍以上的现金（视公司被低估程度而定）。
散户资金有限，多数买不起地皮，所以无法参与土地投资，以分享地皮涨价的利益。
其实，只要购买上市产业公司的股票，就是购买土地（尽管只是很小的一部份）。
长期投资
假设一家上市产业公司每股净资产价值为2令吉，而现在的股价仅为1令吉，等于你以半价购买地皮，而没有寻找地皮以及办理土地过户手续的费用和麻烦，不是更合算吗？为什么不敢买？
抱着买地皮的态度买产业股，并且像买地皮般作长期投资，肯定不会错到那里去。
必须提醒的是，产业股也好像别类股票那样，良莠不齐，买进之前，必须严加筛选，只买好股，就好像买地皮只买好地皮一样。
丹斯里李金友说，产业股被低估得离谱，有理！
绿野集团副主席丹斯里李金友受报界访问时宣称：假如他有足够的资金的话，他会买完所有上市产业股，因为它们的价值被低估得离谱（Crazy）。
此话出自一名产业界名人之口，实在值得我们深思。
不但深思，而且应该深入研究上市产业公司，看看以它们目前的股价，其股票价值是否一如丹斯里李所说的，价值被低估到离谱的地步。
低价入股良机
如果真的是这样，那么，从反向投资的角度，也许产业股股价不振，提供了一个低价入股产业公司的良机。
在过去两年中，房地产价值暴涨，涨幅由数十巴仙至数百巴仙不等，视产业地点及种类而定。
上市产业公司都拥有宝贵的房产和地皮，而且多数是在多年前，甚至一、二十年前买进的，买价非常低廉，现在价值均已暴涨，产业股的价值水涨船高，照理股价应该跟着上升才对，但产业股的股价表现却每况愈下，落后于大势甚远，实在令人费解。
上市公司所拥有的产业可以分为两类：
第一类是已落成的产业，如办公大楼、购物中心、酒店、工厂、高尔夫球场等，作为长期投资，以收取租金，使公司有稳定的收入。
不用说，这些年来，这些产业已经大幅度增值，市值肯定比账目中的价值上升了一大截。
第二类是地皮。
产业公司的主要业务，是买进地皮，分割成许多小段的屋地，建屋出售，以赚取利润，这也是大部份上市产业公司主要的盈利来源。
为了确保他们所拥有的地库，足以供多年发展之用，上市产业公司通常会买进及囤存面积相当大的地皮，以确保业务不至因为缺乏土地而中断。
这些公司囤存地皮，就好像货仓囤存货物一样，所以叫“地库”。
每一家上市产业公司的年报，都会列出所拥有地皮的地点、面积、种类（例如农业地、屋地、商用地等），买进日期及买价（或是重估价）。通常是在年报最后数页，与30名最大股东名单相毗邻。
地价翻几倍
假如你细读年报中的“产业名单”（List of Properties）的话，你会发现，许多地皮是在一、二十年前买进的，买价低得离谱，十多二十年来，地价已不知翻了多少番，目前的价格，肯定比“账面价值”高数倍，甚至数十倍。
5月7日，我曾在本专栏发表一篇“3000令吉可买多少地？”的文章，那是我偶尔重读柏年（Brem）的年报，有感而作的，17年前，柏年以 3000令吉，在巴生的武吉拉惹买进4.7英亩的永久权土地，收藏到现在，价值恐怕已上升了数十倍，但在该公司的年报中，这4.7英亩地皮的价值还是 3000令吉，其价值被低估的程度可想而知。
其实，假如你逐家细读上市公司的年报的话，此类情况俯拾即是，可见产业股价值被低估并非耸人听闻。
账面价值计算法
上市条例规定，产业公司所拥有的地皮，如果是作为“发展”（即建屋出售）用途的话，只准以“成本”（买价）入账，不准以重估价值入账。
理由是这些地皮在建屋后就卖掉，所以是属“贸易资产”，其性质跟制造业的原料相同（地皮就是建屋的原料），所以不准以重估后的价值入账，以防止制造虚胖的资产价值。
成本入账
所以，上市产业公司买进作为“发展”用途的地皮，只准以成本入账。
这些在十多二十年前买进的地皮，价值已不知涨了多少倍，但在公司的账目中，十多二十年来，每年仍保持买进时的价值，这个价值，称为“账面价值”（Book Value），以区别于“重估价值”。
十多年前，公司以每英亩3万令吉买进的地皮，现在已涨至50万令吉，但在公司的账面中，价值还是3万令吉，这3万令吉就是“账面价值”。
这种情形，就好像你在20年前，以3万令吉买进吉隆坡孟沙区的一间双层排屋，在你个人的财产账中，仍保持3万令吉，这3万令吉就是你的财产的“账面价值”。
现在这间排屋的价值已涨至100万令吉以上，假如你重估屋子的价值的话，你的“身家”早已超过百万令吉，所以，根据“账面价值”，你的身家只有3万令吉，实际上你是一名百万富翁。
同样的情形，许多上市产业公司在十多二十年前买进的地皮，收藏至今，价值早已上升了10倍至数10倍不等，但是在公司的账目中，这些地皮还是保持买进时的价值，就是“账面价值”。
产业公司根据地皮的“账面价值”，计算出它的资产总值，再根据这总值计算出每股的净有形资产价值（NTA），这就是公司的“账面价值”。
用这种方法计算出来的每股资产价值，假设是1令吉50仙的话，如果公司按市价重估（作为参考价，不用作入账）其地皮的价值的话，每股资产价值可能增至4令吉，假如公司以市价脱售这些地皮，套取现金的话，股东每股可以取回4令吉的现金。
低过NTA
然而目前的股价，可能只是1令吉，甚至比1令吉50仙的账面每股资产价值更低，产业股被低估，再明显不过了。
我曾加以统计，发现80%以上产业股的股价，低过其每股净有形资产价值（NTA），其被低估情况可想而知。
最近美合实业（Merge Housing）和侨丰产业（OSK Properties）的大股东分别以每股65仙和87仙全面献购小股东的股票，假如你阅读两公司的财报的话，你会发现，美合和侨丰的每股净有形资产价值分别为1令吉11仙和1令吉74仙，比献购价几乎高一倍，不要忘记这还是“账面价值”。
假如两公司重估其地皮的话，每股净有形资产价值可能更高，可见两家公司的大股东，是通过全面献购，以半价购买两公司的地皮。
请注意，是“账面价值”的半价，不是重估后的半价。
买进前须严加筛选
从以下的事实，也可以证明丹斯里李金友指上市产业公司的股票被低估到离谱的地步，是有道理的：
●以目前产业股的市值（每股股价x股票总数＝市值），要买到他们目前所拥有的地皮，是不可能的事。
●以上市产业公司目前的资金，根据市价买地皮，恐怕只能买到目前的一半或更少的地皮。
●大部份产业公司，假如按市价脱售所拥有的地皮的话，股东可以取回比每股净有形资产价值（NTA）更高，甚至比目前股价高出1倍以上的现金（视公司被低估程度而定）。
散户资金有限，多数买不起地皮，所以无法参与土地投资，以分享地皮涨价的利益。
其实，只要购买上市产业公司的股票，就是购买土地（尽管只是很小的一部份）。
长期投资
假设一家上市产业公司每股净资产价值为2令吉，而现在的股价仅为1令吉，等于你以半价购买地皮，而没有寻找地皮以及办理土地过户手续的费用和麻烦，不是更合算吗？为什么不敢买？
抱着买地皮的态度买产业股，并且像买地皮般作长期投资，肯定不会错到那里去。
必须提醒的是，产业股也好像别类股票那样，良莠不齐，买进之前，必须严加筛选，只买好股，就好像买地皮只买好地皮一样。
丹斯里李金友说，产业股被低估得离谱，有理！
全球股慌 · 专家：克服羊群心态 趁高售金趁低买股
经济 •财经新闻 •2011-08-09 17:27 •点击数：526 •新闻由中国报提供 • 评 • 顶
独家报导：张洁莹
（吉隆坡9日讯）股市哀号，金价狂飙，专家吁请投资者，不妨趁高售金，趁低买股，转战股市投资业务具生产力的类股。
税务专家兼马来亚大学商学院副院长钟贵发博士告诉《中国报》，投资最忌羊群心态，现在不应趁高买黄金，反而趁低进股市，吸纳5至6只股项。
他指出，市道低迷买入股项，最好选择具生产力和资产类股项，但目前应避免有崩溃忧虑的房地产股。
“所谓具生产力股项，即是原产品生产、种植股、制造业或食品生产股项，生产将营造更高价值，适宜在这些股项上投资。”
钟贵发认为，全球市场洒重金投资基建发展，没有应大市需求增产，反而吸收更多资金，是导致今日市场成长停滞的部分原因。
他认为，现阶段投资者不再适宜随消息进场，外围天灾人祸太多，左右股价走势，未必反映实际价值。
套现投资更实际
钟贵发表示，无论时局好或时局坏均有所表现的银行股，值得买进。
独家报导：张洁莹
（吉隆坡9日讯）股市哀号，金价狂飙，专家吁请投资者，不妨趁高售金，趁低买股，转战股市投资业务具生产力的类股。
税务专家兼马来亚大学商学院副院长钟贵发博士告诉《中国报》，投资最忌羊群心态，现在不应趁高买黄金，反而趁低进股市，吸纳5至6只股项。
他指出，市道低迷买入股项，最好选择具生产力和资产类股项，但目前应避免有崩溃忧虑的房地产股。
“所谓具生产力股项，即是原产品生产、种植股、制造业或食品生产股项，生产将营造更高价值，适宜在这些股项上投资。”
钟贵发认为，全球市场洒重金投资基建发展，没有应大市需求增产，反而吸收更多资金，是导致今日市场成长停滞的部分原因。
他认为，现阶段投资者不再适宜随消息进场，外围天灾人祸太多，左右股价走势，未必反映实际价值。
套现投资更实际
钟贵发表示，无论时局好或时局坏均有所表现的银行股，值得买进。
券商下修投資評級 科恩馬溢價風險增
* 財經 09/08/2011 17:22
（吉隆坡9日訊）科恩馬（KNM，7164，主要板工業）溢價風險增加，盈利及合約值恐令人失望，券商下修投資評級至“減持”，目標價同跌至1.32令吉。
艾芬投資銀行今日透過報告說，隨著全球股市愈發波動，投資者或避開科恩馬，轉向其他抗跌性高，或盈利前景穩定的油氣公司。
該行認為，市場對于該公司2011財年盈利預估過于樂觀，稅前淨利預估達1.2億令吉，超出艾芬投資銀行預估70%。
“科恩馬最近兩季，僅錄得600萬、700萬令吉的稅前淨利，我們並不預期接下來2季會出現戲劇化進展，畢竟該公司仍持續清算低賺幅合約。”
艾芬投資銀行基于溢價風險趨升，加上合約表現恐失利，下修2012曆年本益比（PE）目標，由13倍調低至8倍。
“我們也調低2011至2013財年盈利預估，單是2011財年已砍36%，主要是去年底獲頒的英國彼得伯勒能源公園（Peterborough Energy Park）設計、 採購和施工（EPC）合約，料延期動工。”
該行透露，上述工程融資問題仍未解決，原先預計今年下半年可動工，依情況看來料展延至明年。
另外，科恩馬上月底與海灣亞洲石油（Gulf Asian Petroleum）簽署暫定工程協議，最終或令人失望。
“上述工程仍處初步階段，無論是融資、研究或供銷協議都還未定案。”
基于種種原因，艾芬投資銀行下調該公司投資建議至“減持”，目標價也下修至1.32令吉。
閉市時，科恩馬報1.51令吉，跌7仙，成交量1860萬8000股。
（吉隆坡9日訊）科恩馬（KNM，7164，主要板工業）溢價風險增加，盈利及合約值恐令人失望，券商下修投資評級至“減持”，目標價同跌至1.32令吉。
艾芬投資銀行今日透過報告說，隨著全球股市愈發波動，投資者或避開科恩馬，轉向其他抗跌性高，或盈利前景穩定的油氣公司。
該行認為，市場對于該公司2011財年盈利預估過于樂觀，稅前淨利預估達1.2億令吉，超出艾芬投資銀行預估70%。
“科恩馬最近兩季，僅錄得600萬、700萬令吉的稅前淨利，我們並不預期接下來2季會出現戲劇化進展，畢竟該公司仍持續清算低賺幅合約。”
艾芬投資銀行基于溢價風險趨升，加上合約表現恐失利，下修2012曆年本益比（PE）目標，由13倍調低至8倍。
“我們也調低2011至2013財年盈利預估，單是2011財年已砍36%，主要是去年底獲頒的英國彼得伯勒能源公園（Peterborough Energy Park）設計、 採購和施工（EPC）合約，料延期動工。”
該行透露，上述工程融資問題仍未解決，原先預計今年下半年可動工，依情況看來料展延至明年。
另外，科恩馬上月底與海灣亞洲石油（Gulf Asian Petroleum）簽署暫定工程協議，最終或令人失望。
“上述工程仍處初步階段，無論是融資、研究或供銷協議都還未定案。”
基于種種原因，艾芬投資銀行下調該公司投資建議至“減持”，目標價也下修至1.32令吉。
閉市時，科恩馬報1.51令吉，跌7仙，成交量1860萬8000股。
外拓或致现金吃紧 杨忠礼能源评级遭下修
•经济 •财经新闻 •2011-08-08 17:37 •点击数：106 •新闻由中国报提供 • 评 • 顶
（吉隆坡8日讯）杨忠礼能源（YTLPOWR，6742，主要板基建）短期内料与日本策略伙伴，积极扩张海外业务，流动现金或潜在吃紧，致使合理价及投资评级遭券商下调。
肯纳格证券研究今日透过分析报告指出，该公司短期内将大规模扩张海外业务，尤其近来有关策略伙伴日本丸红株式会社（Marubeni Corp），投资印尼能源计划消息愈发火热，前者料能分一杯羹。
该行透露，对于杨忠礼能源与丸红株式会社合作发展印尼能源计划仍未有更详细资料，尤其是整项计划的发展规模。
“很有可能将拖低未来2年股息回酬及派发率，虽说新加坡Power Seraya电力公司仍是推动公司成长主要贡献，但我们认为，2011财年连续两季减少派息，已暗示正为末来扩张做准备。”
肯纳格证券研究调低2011及2012财年每股净股息预估17%，至9.4仙，但维持核心净利在10亿8000万至10亿9000万令吉，反映现金收紧而非营运疲软。
“就算早前乐观看待杨忠礼能源2011财年末季表现，每股净股息或达3.75仙，但全财年11.25仙每股股息预估，将是继2005年以来，首次录得按年滑落。”
基于潜在收紧现金，该行下修该股合理价，从2.61令吉减至1.91令吉，投资评级则滑至“符合大市”。
杨忠礼能源闭市收在1.86令吉，跌8仙，成交量554万5200股。
（吉隆坡8日讯）杨忠礼能源（YTLPOWR，6742，主要板基建）短期内料与日本策略伙伴，积极扩张海外业务，流动现金或潜在吃紧，致使合理价及投资评级遭券商下调。
肯纳格证券研究今日透过分析报告指出，该公司短期内将大规模扩张海外业务，尤其近来有关策略伙伴日本丸红株式会社（Marubeni Corp），投资印尼能源计划消息愈发火热，前者料能分一杯羹。
该行透露，对于杨忠礼能源与丸红株式会社合作发展印尼能源计划仍未有更详细资料，尤其是整项计划的发展规模。
“很有可能将拖低未来2年股息回酬及派发率，虽说新加坡Power Seraya电力公司仍是推动公司成长主要贡献，但我们认为，2011财年连续两季减少派息，已暗示正为末来扩张做准备。”
肯纳格证券研究调低2011及2012财年每股净股息预估17%，至9.4仙，但维持核心净利在10亿8000万至10亿9000万令吉，反映现金收紧而非营运疲软。
“就算早前乐观看待杨忠礼能源2011财年末季表现，每股净股息或达3.75仙，但全财年11.25仙每股股息预估，将是继2005年以来，首次录得按年滑落。”
基于潜在收紧现金，该行下修该股合理价，从2.61令吉减至1.91令吉，投资评级则滑至“符合大市”。
杨忠礼能源闭市收在1.86令吉，跌8仙，成交量554万5200股。
Friday, August 5, 2011
CMMT gains on good earnings
CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust (CMMT) has been keeping busy. Since the real estate investment trust — a “pure play” shopping mall REIT — was listed in mid-July 2010, it has acquired one property and is in the process of adding another to its portfolio.
The REIT completed the acquisition of Gurney Plaza Extension in Penang at end-March 2011. This enlarged its portfolio of net lettable area (NLA) under management to just over two million sq ft. Total investment properties increased to RM2.43 billion as at end-June 2011 — including RM54.2 million in property fair value gains this year — up by more than 14% from RM2.13 billion when it was listed just over a year ago.
CMMT is in the process of acquiring the East Coast Mall in Kuantan, Pahang, for a total cost of about RM330 million. The purchase will further expand the NLA under management to 2.46 million sq ft and total investment properties to RM2.76 billion. To finance the purchase, CMMT will issue up to 299 million new units.
This latest move will reaffirm the trust’s strategic positioning in the retail mall segment, extending its presence to four key urban centres — Kuala Lumpur, Penang, Selangor and Kuantan. The acquisition is slated for completion by 4Q11 and will start to contribute to earnings in 2012.
For the first six months of 2011, CMMT reported distributable income totalling RM55.9 million — excluding some RM51.3 million in unrealised fair value gains on investment properties and adjustments for manager’s management fee payable in units — on the back of total revenue of RM109.9 million.
Distributable income in 2Q11 totalled RM29.9 million, boosted by maiden contributions from the newly acquired Gurney Plaza Extension. Both shopper and vehicular traffic at its shopping malls recorded positive year-on-year (y-o-y) growth during the quarter.
Perhaps more importantly, all three of CMMT’s shopping malls — the enlarged Gurney Plaza, Sungei Wang Plaza in Kuala Lumpur and The Mines in Selangor — enjoyed positive rent reversion on leases renewed so far this year. Rental increases for the first year under the new leases range from 5.1% to 8%, with an average of 6.6% for its portfolio of assets. Occupancy also inched higher to an average of 99.1% as at end-June 2011, up from 98.7% at end-March 2011.
A second interim income distribution of 2.16 sen per unit raised the total distribution for 1H11 to 3.9 sen. At this pace, the trust is well on track to meet its forecast income distribution of 7.46 sen per unit for 2011.
In fact, based on its 100% payout commitment, total income distribution for the year may well be higher. This is likely, at least in part, the reason its unit price has spiked over the past two months from RM1.16 in early June to the current RM1.32. As a result of the recent price gains, yield (based on CMMT’s forecast 7.46 sen unit distribution) has narrowed to just 5.7%.
Quill Capita keeping existing portfolio intact
Quill Capita Trust, on the other hand, has not been as active in terms of expanding its portfolio of assets.
The real estate investment trust’s last acquisition was made way back in late-2008. Since then, the total number of properties has remained at 10, up from four at the listing date in January 2007, with some 1.29 million sq ft of NLA under management. While the manager is on the lookout for potential yield accretive acquisition opportunities, no imminent new purchases have been announced so far.
Nevertheless, Quill Capita does offer investors comparatively good yields on fairly low risks. Gearing has declined slightly to 36% as at end-June 2011, compared with just over 37% from a year ago, while its cost of debt has been steady at roughly 4.45% over the past four quarters. Almost all of the trust’s borrowings carry fixed interest rates.
Quill Capita reported a good set of earnings results for 2Q11. Net income rose 10.5% y-o-y to RM9.17 million on the back of a 1.5% increase in revenue to RM17.61 million. The better margin was attributed to lower property operating expenses.
For the first six months of the year, revenue was up 1.7% to RM35.1 million from the previous corresponding period, thanks to higher rental for some properties. Net income expanded by 6.8% y-o-y to RM16.9 million over the same period. As a result, the trust has raised its income distribution at the interim period to four sen per unit, from 3.85 sen per unit in 1H10.
On the back of the relatively good 1H11 earnings, we forecast higher income for distribution for the full year, estimated at 8.22 sen per unit, up from 8.03 sen per unit last year. This would translate into a fairly attractive yield of 7.5% at the current price.
It should also be noted that Quill Capita is one of the few REITs currently trading well below net asset value (NAV), which stood at RM1.28 at end-June. By comparison, CMMT is trading at 1.24 times its NAV of RM1.06 per unit.
Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 5, 2011.
The REIT completed the acquisition of Gurney Plaza Extension in Penang at end-March 2011. This enlarged its portfolio of net lettable area (NLA) under management to just over two million sq ft. Total investment properties increased to RM2.43 billion as at end-June 2011 — including RM54.2 million in property fair value gains this year — up by more than 14% from RM2.13 billion when it was listed just over a year ago.
CMMT is in the process of acquiring the East Coast Mall in Kuantan, Pahang, for a total cost of about RM330 million. The purchase will further expand the NLA under management to 2.46 million sq ft and total investment properties to RM2.76 billion. To finance the purchase, CMMT will issue up to 299 million new units.
This latest move will reaffirm the trust’s strategic positioning in the retail mall segment, extending its presence to four key urban centres — Kuala Lumpur, Penang, Selangor and Kuantan. The acquisition is slated for completion by 4Q11 and will start to contribute to earnings in 2012.
For the first six months of 2011, CMMT reported distributable income totalling RM55.9 million — excluding some RM51.3 million in unrealised fair value gains on investment properties and adjustments for manager’s management fee payable in units — on the back of total revenue of RM109.9 million.
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Perhaps more importantly, all three of CMMT’s shopping malls — the enlarged Gurney Plaza, Sungei Wang Plaza in Kuala Lumpur and The Mines in Selangor — enjoyed positive rent reversion on leases renewed so far this year. Rental increases for the first year under the new leases range from 5.1% to 8%, with an average of 6.6% for its portfolio of assets. Occupancy also inched higher to an average of 99.1% as at end-June 2011, up from 98.7% at end-March 2011.
A second interim income distribution of 2.16 sen per unit raised the total distribution for 1H11 to 3.9 sen. At this pace, the trust is well on track to meet its forecast income distribution of 7.46 sen per unit for 2011.
In fact, based on its 100% payout commitment, total income distribution for the year may well be higher. This is likely, at least in part, the reason its unit price has spiked over the past two months from RM1.16 in early June to the current RM1.32. As a result of the recent price gains, yield (based on CMMT’s forecast 7.46 sen unit distribution) has narrowed to just 5.7%.
Quill Capita keeping existing portfolio intact
Quill Capita Trust, on the other hand, has not been as active in terms of expanding its portfolio of assets.
The real estate investment trust’s last acquisition was made way back in late-2008. Since then, the total number of properties has remained at 10, up from four at the listing date in January 2007, with some 1.29 million sq ft of NLA under management. While the manager is on the lookout for potential yield accretive acquisition opportunities, no imminent new purchases have been announced so far.
Nevertheless, Quill Capita does offer investors comparatively good yields on fairly low risks. Gearing has declined slightly to 36% as at end-June 2011, compared with just over 37% from a year ago, while its cost of debt has been steady at roughly 4.45% over the past four quarters. Almost all of the trust’s borrowings carry fixed interest rates.
Quill Capita reported a good set of earnings results for 2Q11. Net income rose 10.5% y-o-y to RM9.17 million on the back of a 1.5% increase in revenue to RM17.61 million. The better margin was attributed to lower property operating expenses.
For the first six months of the year, revenue was up 1.7% to RM35.1 million from the previous corresponding period, thanks to higher rental for some properties. Net income expanded by 6.8% y-o-y to RM16.9 million over the same period. As a result, the trust has raised its income distribution at the interim period to four sen per unit, from 3.85 sen per unit in 1H10.
On the back of the relatively good 1H11 earnings, we forecast higher income for distribution for the full year, estimated at 8.22 sen per unit, up from 8.03 sen per unit last year. This would translate into a fairly attractive yield of 7.5% at the current price.
It should also be noted that Quill Capita is one of the few REITs currently trading well below net asset value (NAV), which stood at RM1.28 at end-June. By comparison, CMMT is trading at 1.24 times its NAV of RM1.06 per unit.
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Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 5, 2011.
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