當心！美元陷阱

新台幣大貶、黃金暴跌，皆因美元反彈，但它能強多久？

股匯市暴起暴落，美元變成一枝獨秀。但，美元究竟是短多？還是長多？你該緊抱新台幣，衝去買美元，還是逢低撿雜幣？亂世投資，不可不知「影子貨幣」大趨勢。

今年秋天，冷得特別快。

就在歐洲遊客猛打噴嚏的蕭瑟九月，國際資金也受到歐債風暴驚嚇，快速竄逃。股市、匯市、商品市場就像跳波浪舞般，輪番暴起暴落。

歐元區的不定時炸彈，嚇得國際資金從八月底瘋狂湧入瑞士法郎避險。九月六日，瑞士央行出手阻升，逼得國際資金三面流竄：流進市場胃納較小的北歐貨幣、流動性最大的美債市場並拉升美元，部分資金暫時停泊到黃金。

到了9月21日，美國聯準會（Fed）主席柏南奇一句「經濟前景有顯著下滑的風險，」再度挑起市場敏感神經，國際資金從全球股市、新興市場和大宗物資市場撤資，轉入美債，把美國十年期公債殖利率壓至歷史最低點的1.67％、拉動美元繼續上漲。風險意識轉強，連之前停泊在黃金市場的資金都大幅撤資，導致金價暴跌。

9月1日到23日，美國道瓊工業指數下跌6.3％、台股跌掉9.2％。美元指數創半年新高，漲幅達5.4％，歐元則是貶值5.3％，瑞郎在瑞士央行大動作干預下，對美元貶幅高達13.8％，新台幣貶值4.6％。黃金和西德州原油期貨價格都下跌10％。

金融市場暴起暴落，連國際貨幣基金（IMF）都在最新出版的九月份全球經濟展望中強調，「全球經濟正處在一個危險的新階段」。

美元反彈由空轉多？
歐債若利空出盡，漲勢將反轉

在一片不景氣中，只有美元一枝獨秀，其他都烏壓壓。市場出現一個主流聲音：美元再起。

但，美元究竟是短多，還是長多？答案，繫在歐債危機身上。

因為，對歐債危機的悲觀，導致對美元的樂觀，兩者如同翹翹板。而歐債的最大變數，就是希臘約3000億歐元的債務會不會違約？是有秩序的違約？或猛爆性違約？

最遲明年第二季，這波多頭走完

如果是猛爆性，在11月份G20高峰會後，歐盟放手讓希臘違約，富邦金控經濟研究中心資深協理羅瑋解釋，因為歐洲銀行體系準備時間不夠，可能導致金融海嘯時期類似的「市場急凍」效應。以2008年的例子來看，需時約半年才有可能消化。最壞的時候，會落在明年第二季末。

如果是秩序性，G20高峰決定花更長的時間準備、切割，延到明年第一季才讓希臘違約，屆時殺傷力會比較小，金融市場大約一到三個月可以消化完畢。最壞的時候也會落在明年第二季末。

無論G20採取哪種途徑，明年第二季底都將是歐債利空出盡的時刻，亦即，美元這一波多頭，最多走到明年第二季結束。

美元目前聲勢如虹，卻是短多長空。當歐債利空出盡後，美元仍會回到其債台高築、經濟成長率逼近零、美元氾濫的經濟基本面。

◎羅傑斯：美元不是安全避風港
◎比新台幣好賺 外幣達人5秘招
完整精采內文請見《商業週刊》1245期，全省各大便利商店同步販售

Telcos fared well in recent selldown

Written by Insider Asia    Friday, 23 September 2011 14:17 With investors scrambling in the selloff amid rising uncertainties in global financial markets, stock yields are holding up comparatively well. Telecommunications in particular is widely seen as one of the most defensive sectors to invest in currently. Revenue for telcos is expected to be fairly resilient even in the face of weaker consumer spending as confidence wanes. Indeed, given our lifestyles today, telco services are more a necessity than discretionary spending. This translates into sustainable cash flow and dividend payouts. Despite the continuous capital spending requirements, free cash flow generated from telco operations remains by and large robust. Thus, most telcos maintain a generous dividend payout. Even if expectations for growth and capital appreciation are limited, investors seek out these stocks for their higher than market average yields. Keeping a portion of a diversified portfolio in high-yielding stocks may not be a bad strategy, especially in the near to medium term, until there are clearer indications on the market direction going into 2012. It is hard to predict when the global economy and asset prices will turn around after the current volatility subsides. Holding cash generates zero returns while bank deposit rates are historically low. DiGi and Maxis shares have outperformed If historical performance is any guide, DiGi.Com Bhd and Maxis Bhd’s shares have outperformed the FBM KLCI, the benchmark index for the local bourse, year-to-date. DiGi’s stock has done particularly well. Even though the company’s 2011/12 earnings will be hit by accelerated depreciation charges, its underlying business is faring well in a highly competitive environment. The company registered the strongest subscriber growth in 1H11 among the big three mobile operators, that include Maxis and Celcom Bhd, albeit from the smallest base. Revenue for the first six months was up 10.4% year-on-year (y-o-y), well above the industry average of 3%. DiGi is upbeat that it can maintain a high single digit pace of growth for the full-year. The solid top line growth and economies of scale bolstered operating margins. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) margin averaged 45.9% in 1H11, up from the average operating margin of  44.4% in 2010. The company intends to improve its profitability further through a combination of market share gain, cost savings and improved network efficiency. These include savings on operational expenditure and capital expenditure from its ongoing collaboration with Celcom, to consolidate and upgrade their telecommunication sites and transmission network. Maxis’ earnings likely to remain flattish in 2011/12 Maxis had the slowest subscriber addition in 2QFY11, by just 13,000. The total subscriber count was distorted in 1QFY11 due to a tightening of its definition of an active user. Nonetheless, the company remains the largest mobile operator in the country with 12.76 million subscribers or about 38% of the market. Total revenue for 1HFY11 contracted by 1.2% y-o-y. This is due primarily to the company’s decision to scale back operations at the low margin international gateway unit. Excluding contributions from international gateway, Maxis’ revenue grew, but by a rather pedestrian 1.5% y-o-y. Net profit was up some 0.6% over the same period. We expect earnings to contract slightly for 2011/12, after taking into account the higher costs to be incurred with the company’s entry into the high-speed home broadband market segment, in 2HFY11. Recall that Maxis signed a 10-year agreement for wholesale high-speed broadband (HSBB) services from Telekom Malaysia Bhd late last year. This would give it instant access to a potential market of 1.1 million households by end-2011 and 1.3 million by next year on top of its own fibre network, primarily to multi-dwelling units. Home broadband services will be loss-making in the initial years Maxis singled out high-speed home broadband services as one of the key growth drivers over the longer term. While competition will be intense with Streamyx, P1, Unifi and new entrant, Celcom, jostling for market share, there is growing demand for faster broadband. The most efficient delivery channel for HSBB content is through the fibre network. In addition to “plain vanilla” Internet access, Maxis is aiming to offer a range of value added services, including VoIP, IPTV, video-on-demand and so on. In this respect, the company has the upper hand. It can piggyback on sister company Astro All Asia Networks plc’s already expansive content. Nevertheless, the home services business will be loss-making for several years, until the subscriber base hits the estimated breakeven point of one million. For now, growth from mobile Internet and mobile broadband will have to pick up the slack from declining voice revenue. Maxis expects to maintain 40 sen per share dividends On balance, capital gains for Maxis over the next two years may be limited. But high dividend payout will provide support to its share price and capital preservation for investors. We estimate dividends to remain at last year’s level of 40 sen per share, giving shareholders an attractive net yield of 7.5%. Further growth in total industry subscribers will taper off with penetration rate having exceeded 100% of population. But the slight uptick in average revenue per user (ARPU) in 2QFY11 for Maxis bodes well. The increasing proliferation and gradual migration towards smartphones, which typically come bundled with higher value voice-cum-data plans, should help stabilise, and may even reverse, the downtrend in ARPU. DiGi may raise payout with second capital management exercise in 2012 Assuming 100% profit payout plus the recently proposed capital repayment of RM509 million, dividends for DiGi are estimated to total about RM3.44 per share for 2011/12. If distributed equally over the two years, shareholders will earn net yields of 5.7% per year. Although this is lower than the expected yield from Maxis, DiGi’s outlook for capital gains is better, taking into account the company’s current pace of growth and strategies put in place for margin improvements. Plus, management has hinted at a second capital management exercise. DiGi has a much stronger balance sheet with gearing of just 5% as at end-June 2011, compared with Maxis’ 53%. That leaves it with more room to return excess cash to shareholders. Some market observers speculate that up to 89 sen per share worth of future capital distribution is possible based on the company’s current balance sheet. DiGi recently proposed a one-to-10 share split, which is expected to be completed by 4QFY11. Although the move will have no impact on earnings, the lower adjusted share price will make the stock more affordable, especially to retail investors. Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, September 23, 2011.

分享锦集:股市实战手记五则

Sep 9th, 2011 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集

1.留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。

当股市逆转时，假如你是将股票抵押给银行，借款投资股票的话，第一件要做的事，就是立刻采取行动，抛售一部份，将贷款额减低至安全的水平。

所谓“安全水平”，我的标准是即使股市再跌50%，你仍不会面对银行逼仓的困境。如果能完全还清贷款，那就最理想。

抛售时，要果断，要乾脆俐落，切忌犹疑不决，或是拖泥带水。

优柔寡断，是举债投资者陷入困境的最大原因。请记住两点：

i.股市是不可预测的，不要自作聪明，一厢情愿的认为股市下跌是暂时性的。股市不会理会你的想法，你须对自己行为负责。

ii.即使你的抛售是错误的，将来也会有机会买回来，即使不能买回原股，也可以投资於别的股票，所以不必迟疑不决。

留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。

生存永远比失去的机会更重要-重要百倍。

2.投资股票是持久战

买与卖，不要同时进行，买了又卖，卖了又买，是最糟糕的投资策略。

正确的做法是只有准备长期持有时才买进，不要贪图蝇头小利，不断的在股市抢进卖出，企图以此赚取快钱。

快速致富的人不是没有，只是少之又少，少到不值得我们去搏取。财富必须是脚踏实地去创造出来的，才能持久。

无论是亲力亲为做事业，或是投资股票，都是如此。

股市真正成功的投资者，多数是多年才买卖一次的投资者。因为他们视买股票为买事业，买事业等于参与做事业，是一场持久战，才有可能取得战果。

速战速决的战略，适用于别的市场，例如货币市场，但不适用于股市，股票投资必须是马拉松，不是短跑，短跑靠冲劲，马拉松靠耐力致胜。

3.吸取教训减少犯错

判断错误，买错股票，是属正常，如果一个人百战百胜，从未失手，我肯定他不是人，是神。

凡是人，都是血肉之躯，血肉之躯必然有思想感情，有思想感情的人都必须受世间所发生的事的影响，这些影响会使他作出错误的判断，所以，犯错误是正常的。

投资者所要努力去做的，不是要完全不犯错误，而是减少犯错误，只要对多错少，就可在股市投资致富。

所以，不要因为错误而烦恼，也没有必要去后悔。重要的是你必须吸取错误的教训，尽量减少错误。

成功投资者与失败投资者区别，是前者因错而做得更好，后者则一错再错，死性不改。

错误并不可耻，可耻的是错而不能改，改而不能久。

4.平常心看待股票投资

如果你发现你作了错误的投资，例如买错股票，就要认输，立刻采取行动补救。

不肯认输而死顶下去，是许多人投资失败的主要原因。

更坏的是不但不认输，反而找出种种理由来支持他的错误行动，最后必然自食苦果。

我认识一位持有金融和会计双学位的专业人士，担任财经要职，像他这样的学历的人，照理具备成为成功投资者的最有利条件，但我发现他在工作上有特出的表现，但个人的股票投资成绩单却满江红，差到极点。

我发现他的致命伤是他不肯认输，当他知道自己的投资出现问题时，他认为以他的学历，判断不可能错误，所以坚持下去，他忘记了股市是个不按牌理出牌的地方，以教条去应付诡谲的股市，当然是一败涂地。

股票投资，知识当然是重要的，但更重要的是常识。

本着常识，以平常心看待股票投资的人，反而比钻牛角尖所谓专家，有更大成功机会。

5.脚踏实地不幻想

在股市中，脚踏实地，老老实实投资的人，比侥倖行险，自作聪明的人，有更高的成功机会。

我常说，买股票就是买股份，买股份就是买事业，买事业须实事求是，不能存有幻想。

根据美国百多年来的统计，股票投资的平均回酬率约为10.5%，明乎此，你当知道，要在股市快速致富是不实际的。

Genting Malaysia unveils Resorts World Miami master plan

Written by The Edge Financialy Daily   
Genting Malaysia Bhd
(Sept 19, RM3.36)
 
Maintain hold at RM3.36 with target price of RM3.70: Genting Malaysia’s US$3 billion (RM9.33 billion) master plan for Resorts World Miami (RWM) is modelled on Resorts World
Genting (RWG), we believe.

While we are positive, we maintain our estimates, “hold” call and RM3.70 target price as we believe that the earnings impact will not feature in the near term. Construction on RWM is unlikely to start until it obtains approval for a casino, not expected for another one to two years. Nonetheless, that prospect should keep Genting Malaysia’s share price buoyant.

Note that the master plan calls for a total room inventory of 6,200, much larger than Resorts World Sentosa’s (RWS) 1,600 but still fewer than RWG’s10,000.

We gather that Genting Malaysia will position RWM as a mass market resort like RWG and not a VIP resort like RWS. If approved, a casino will be housed on the third and fourth floors.

RWM will be sited on a contiguous area of 30 acres, larger than the initial 13.9 acres purchased for US$236 million on May 27. According to the local media, Genting Malaysia
purchased another 7.2 acres for US$49.6 million in August 2011.

Genting Malaysia’s press release also states that it acquired the entire US$205 million of mortgage notes on the Omni Center but did not specify the price. We have not accounted for the latter two in our forecasts but do not expect them to impact our estimates materially.

The Florida legislature will reconvene on January 2012 and deliberate on the issue of liberalising non-Native American casinos over the next one to two years.

It has to consider if the proposed 10% gaming tax on gross gaming revenues (GGR) will outweigh the US$1 billion over five years tax compact with the Seminole casinos that it will have to forego. Genting Malaysia’s management expects construction on RWM to start in 2H13.

We believe that it will not commence until the liberalisation is achieved.

While we like the RWM master plan, we maintain our call and discounted cash flow-based target price until Genting Malaysia obtains the approval for a casino there. Nonetheless,
we still believe that RWM, with a casino, will accrete at least 66% to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (assuming US$1 billion GGR). That prospect
should keep Genting Malaysia’s share price buoyant. — Maybank Research, Sept 19
Tuesday, 20 September 2011 15:36

Baltic Dry Index reverses gains as industry concerns re-emerge

  Written by Jose Barrock    Wednesday, 21 September 2011 11:14

KUALA LUMPUR: The recent rally in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) could be short-lived as orders from Japan and China, and shipping disputes give way to a gloomy demand/supply picture.  

Last Friday, the BDI, which tracks the cost of carriage of dry bulk goods such as iron ore, grain and coal, across sea routes, plunged 93 points or 4.88% to 1,814.

The charter rates for Capesize ships, so named as they can’t pass through both the Suez and Panama canals, fell 12% to about US$24,739 (RM77,680) a day, the steepest fall in eight months. 

The BDI fell by another 50 points or 2.8% on Monday to 1,764.

This is a reversal to the 40% plus gain since early August, which drove the index to its highest level since December 2010.

Gains on the index were brought about by a rise in Japanese demand for coal and iron ore in the wake of the tsunami earlier this year that ravaged many parts of Japan. The country is rebuilding infrastructure and requires a replacement for the energy shortfall caused by the shutdown of the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

Other than orders from Japan that stirred the benchmark index, China has also stoked demand for coal and iron ore to meet steel production needs, further nudging the index northwards.

Charter disputes between China Ocean Shipping Co Ltd (Cosco) and Hong Kong’s Jinhui Shipping, Greece’s DryShips and Navios, and Switzerland’s Bunge SA also helped the index gain momentum.

Many companies had reportedly shied away from chartering Cosco’s vessels for fear of the ships being seized, which also aided the index in gaining ground. Cosco, the world’s third largest owner of dry bulk commodity vessels, has had three ships seized in the US and Singapore in the past three months, according to a Bloomberg report.

Such charter disputes are rife when rates pick up as charterers attempt to hire ships for older, lower prices while owners try to lock in newer, higher rates.        

Despite the recent good run for charter rates, most pundits expect the situation to “normalise” soon given the dry bulk market’s gloomy outlook, during which overcapacity prevails.

So far this year, 166 vessels have been delivered, and an additional 156 are likely to be commissioned in the last three months of 2011. This will increase the world’s dry bulk fleet by over 13%, or more than triple the 4% rise in commodity shipping requirements, details from Clarkson Research Services, a unit of shipbrokers Clarkson plc, indicated.

Many of the orders were made in May 2008, when the Baltic Dry Index reached a record high of 11,793 points. Unfortunately, by the end of the same year, the index had shed about 90% of its value.

Many of the ships ordered during 2008 are being delivered now.

On the local front, Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd (Maybulk), controlled by tycoon Robert Kuok Hock Nien, has managed to remain in the black. For the six months ended June, the company posted a net profit of RM74.55 million on revenue of RM154.57 million. The company’s earnings per share for the six months stood at 7.45 sen.

For the corresponding period a year ago, Maybulk chalked up a net profit of RM82.92 million on RM210.5 million in revenue.

“The group maintains a cautious outlook and sees a challenging second half,” Maybulk said.  

Its share price ended unchanged at RM1.81 yesterday, trading at a 52-week low.

Another local dry bulk player, Hubline Bhd, posted a net profit of RM17.36 million on RM448.1 million in sales for its nine months ended June 2011. In its cash flow statement, the company stated that RM15.96 million was generated from the sale of property, plant and equipment.

“The general outlook for both the container shipping business and dry-bulk market is expected to be challenging in view of the uncertainty in the global economy,” Hubline said.

The stock closed unchanged at nine sen yesterday, just off a 52-week low of eight sen.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, September 21, 2011.

購房產須步步為營

• 投資致富 2011-09-19 11:24 

• 

   
在轉手市場購買產業，稍微不小心可能會犯上一些自己不察覺的錯誤，造成自己必須付出可大可小的代價。

家園是個人或一家人休閒、互動、用餐及收藏個人貴重物品的地方，因此，在你準備將一個地方視為家園時，它必須是一個讓人感到安全、舒適的地方。

購買房屋基本是多數人單一最大投資計劃，可是，許多人在購買產業之前，可能沒有考慮週全、或是沒有做好充份準備，以致做了錯誤的決定，有鑒於此，在物色產業時，必須要有所認知。

＊一見鍾情

你可能在看了房屋的第一眼就喜歡了，可是，你要反問自己，這間房屋是否迎合你家人的需求與預算，而且你必須確保這房屋符合你的條件。

此外，你可能也需要查看鄰裡及社區的情況，特別是在白天或夜晚的時候看屋，會有不同的收穫；假如你有小孩，你也應該看看附近是否有學校，以確保產業會有不錯的再售價值。

＊預先符合資格與批准融資

預先符合資格讓你有一個可以申請多少貸款的概念，最好是先與銀行或抵押貸款執行員接洽，以便確定能夠舉借的數額，包括是否需要聯合貸款人，以加強申請程序，或者是否需要拉長貸款期。

如果能預先獲得批准，意味銀行已鑒定你的資料及信貸評級，同意發放一個特定數目的貸款，你在物色產業的過程中，會處於比較有利的地位，至少你已相當有把握貸款的申請可以獲准。

＊買貴了

你可能符合取得較多的貸款，不過，你要反問自己是否有能力負擔，借貸較多貸款意味每月的房貸分期也比較大，你可能還未將裝修房屋的成本考量在內，你需要努力的是對每月的開銷進行分析，例如食物、交通、娛樂、汽車貸款及其他負擔。

因此，你必須確保有足夠的預算，以概括其他成本，通常介於購買價的2至5%，加上搬遷與維修，除了抵押貸款的分期支付，還有一些如保險的開銷。

要緊記的是，購買一間房屋如同業務交易，你做了決定之後將受到約束，你應該自己進行市場研究。

購買房屋是一項複雜的交易，你不可能獨自辦理，而是需要產業經紀、銀行、律師等人的協助與配合，家人及朋友的意見也可以供參考，如果遇到的是一名沒有經驗的人，可能造成你物色產業過程出現讓人失望的經歷。

口頭協議
保障小具爭議

口頭協議比較難證明實際的情況，而且也比較難執行，甚至出現“他說、她說”的情況，一旦產業轉移到你名下，一些問題將由你負責或解決。

如果是來到合約的階段，書面協議往往超越口頭協議的權限，不要讓自己在進入新屋後，才發現原先答應的東西並不存在，如果你提出修理廁所或撤換損壞瓷磚的要求，不要認定這些都會一一修好，不論項目的大小，都要有書面協議、或寫進合約內。

你必須要瞭解所簽署合約的內容，先閱讀一遍、然後提出問題，雖然合約內容冗長、乏悶，但你必須至少讀一遍，錯誤的假設、準備得不好或遺漏了的條文，以及不瞭解條文，將如何影響有關的產業交易，導致成本增多或合約失效的問題。

勿購社區最昂貴單位

你要避免購買一間價格大大超出鄰家的單位，鄰家單位可能削弱你家的價值，千萬不要購買一個在該社區最昂貴的單位。要緊記市場會轉變，如果你購買有關產業，主要目的是投資，你的售價可能不足以概括你的抵押貸款。

許多房屋購買者可能忘了，產業的市價受到社區或鄰家單位的影響，最好的辦法是：探求一個合理的價格，經紀可以協助掌握這方面的訊息，從社區最新的交易，可以傳達購買者近期的交易價，包括其屋況。

社區附近的房價會影響你那個單位的水平，這表示最貴的房屋，有可能被附近便宜的單位給拉低，至於低檔的有可能從附近高價單位中受惠。

還有一點：避免購買房屋的訂金被沒收，因此，最妥善的辦法是，貸款的申請能預先獲准，銀行可以針對有關產業單位進行估價，以確定你可以貸款的額度。

為確保你所花的錢物有所值，不妨花一些錢請專業的人士檢查房屋，包括提供需修補的意見、是否需廣泛修補等等，不要完全相信賣方所說的已對房屋進行維修或修補，對房屋電線、水管及架構進行檢查是必要的。

檢查的報告可以作為議價的工具，特別是對賣方提出修補房屋要求，假如專業人士舉一些已修補的例子，賣方比較可以認同，這遠勝於根據你本身的觀察，然後與賣方討債還價。

在你看屋時，如果發現房屋存在一些問題，應該書面記下來，如果賣方同意修補，你的專業檢查員要進行鑒定，確定工程妥善完工。

如果是在一手市場向發展商購買新屋，他們在交屋時，會提供義務修補期，如果有問題，將在這期間做好。（星洲日報／投資致富‧地產札記）

BToto: Tempering expectations but still optimistic

Written by Financial Daily   
Thursday, 08 September 2011 11:34

Berjaya Sports Toto Bhd
(Sept 7, RM4.28)
Maintain buy at RM4.24 with revised target price of RM4.85 (from RM4.95): Berjaya Sports Toto will release its 1QFY12 results on Sept 21. The 4D Toto Jackpot outperformed expectations but 4D disappointed. Thus, we trim our earnings estimates by 5% to 6% a year. Assuming a normalised prize payout ratio, we expect 1QFY12 net profit of RM90 million to RM100 million. BToto may embark on a capital management exercise which will serve as a strong re-rating catalyst. We maintain our “buy” call.

Since the introduction of 4D Toto Jackpot on June 11, lotto revenue per draw per outlet has surged from RM1,900 to RM4,500, above our forecast of RM3,600.  That said, we understand that non-lotto revenue per draw per outlet especially 4D has remained flattish. We had expected it to grow by RM1,700, matching our forecast incremental lotto revenue per draw per outlet (RM3,600-RM1,900).

We understand this is because Magnum punters migrated some of their bets to BToto’s 4D Toto Jackpot game but not to its 4D game (as we had expected). To reflect the above, we have trimmed our earnings estimates by 5% to 6% a year. Assuming a normalised prize payout ratio of 61% to 62%, we expect net profit of RM90 million to RM100 million in 1QFY12 (due to 1½ months impact from 4D Toto Jackpot) and RM100 million thereafter.

We estimate that 42% shareholder, Berjaya Land Bhd (BLand), assumed a bridging loan of RM200 million to RM300 million to redeem its RM695.4 million exchangeable bonds on Aug 15. Coupled with another RM459 million required for its Penang Turf Club land purchase, BLand will likely call on BToto to “assist”. If BToto pays out all its cash of RM449.9 million (as at end-FY11) and draws down the remaining RM250 million of its medium-term notes facility, it can return RM700 million or 52 sen per share to investors.

We trim our discounted cash flow-based target price in tandem with our lower earnings estimates and minor housekeeping changes. We still like BToto for its attractive net dividend yields of over 5% and the potential to positively surprise via a special dividend. This high dividend yielding stock will be popular in these times of volatile equity markets. — Maybank IB Research, Sept 7

This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, September 8, 2011.

三大師 唱衰全球經濟

更新日期:2011/09/08 06:55 編譯余曉惠／綜合外電

 紐約大學教授羅比尼表示，隨著全球經濟減速，新一波金融危機可能比提前降臨。投資大戶索羅斯警告歐債危機可能比雷曼兄弟倒閉的後果更嚴重；太平洋投資管理公司（PIMCO）葛洛斯對前景也不太樂觀。

「末日博士」羅比尼6日在倫敦受訪時表示：「幾個月前我預測全球經濟的『完美風暴』在2013年降臨，如今美國、歐元區和英國經濟提前趨緩，二次衰退可能提前來臨。」

羅比尼預測，最先進經濟體陷入衰退的可能性為60%，主要因他們提供政策刺激的能力已經所剩無幾。他說：「短期內我們需要大規模的刺激，否則會出現另一次大蕭條。情況愈來愈糟，當今和幾年前最大的不同是政策選項幾乎用罄。」

羅比尼說，為了讓歐元區重拾眼前和未來所需的成長，歐洲央行8日應暗示降息，一改春季升息的作法。他並認為歐洲金融穩定機制（EFSF）應該應用在全歐境內類似「問題資產救助計畫（TARP）」的情況，藉此支撐所有與融資問題奮戰的歐洲銀行。

索羅斯警告說：「歐債危機的後果可能遠比2008年雷曼兄弟倒閉更嚴重，因為歐元區缺乏一個泛歐洲的行政機關處理這麼嚴重的銀行危機。」

索羅斯認為歐洲需要一場危機創造政治意願，來創立這一類的行政單位。

葛洛斯在「直升機柏南克恐摧毀信用創造」一文中指出，如果聯準會主席柏南克一如某些人預期地壓低利率，可能導致更長期的信用下滑。

分享锦集：次季财报选评

Sep 2nd, 2011 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集

股票投资者，应该养成每天都读完上市公司文告的习惯，以贴身跟踪企业的最新进展。

大马股票交易所的网站www.BURSAMALAYSIA.COM.，在每个交易日都刊载上市公司发来的文告，免费供投资者阅读。

这些“文告”，包括招股说明书、公司的计划、常年报告书、每季的财报、部份公司的研究报告（CBRS）、股票交易资料（成交价、成交量、指数等），对有心研究股票的人来说，可说是资料俱备，只欠用功。

投资者往往可以从阅读公司文告，找到投资的灵感。

就以最近出炉的今年第2季财报来说，一些上市公司就宣布了极有参考价值的资料，兹选出数则与读者分享。

1.鹏尼迪（Plenitude）：每股盈利增至33.2仙

鹏尼迪（Plenitude）到今年6月30日的财务年，营业量为3亿1788万令吉，比上一年的3亿4971万令吉，减少3183万令吉或9.1%，但盈利却从去年的8419万令吉，增加到今年的8960万令吉，增加了541万令吉或6.4%。

每股净利由去年的31.2仙，增至今年的33.20仙

重质不重量

营业量减少，但盈利额增加，反映了该公司充份利用十多年前低价买进的地皮，以提高利润率（Profit Margin）的新政策。

这种重质不重量的政策，将使目前拥有的地库，发挥更大的盈利潜能。

2.嘉隆发展（TDM） 最便宜种植股

嘉隆发展（TDM）：棕油价格挺秀，使所有油棕股的盈利都大增，嘉隆发展亦不例外。

该公司本年上半年每股净赚26.53仙，几乎比上一年同时期多一倍。

下半年如果每吨原棕油能保持3000令吉，嘉隆发展要重复上半年的盈利，应不成问题。

如此一来，全年每股净利可达53仙（26.53仙x2 = 53仙）。

受惠棕油价涨

以目前2令吉90仙的股价，预期本益比才5.5倍，只等于大型种植股本益比的一半，难怪丰隆投资银行在8月9日发表的研究报告中，形容该公司为最便宜的种植股之一。（丰隆投资银行预测嘉隆今年每股净赚56.3仙）。

a. 嘉隆在登嘉楼州拥有82,248英亩油棕园（33,284公顷），全部已成熟，并在盛产期，在目前原棕油价格挺秀中，受惠最大。
b. 该公司将在未来3年中，在印尼东加里曼丹种植5万英亩油棕，在今年初已种了5000英亩。
c. 该公司计划在8年中，将种植面积扩展至10万公顷（25万英亩），是种植股中的成长股。
d. 该公司以2亿3146万令吉的资本，拥有1亿6501万令吉的现金，完全没有负债。
e. 该公司规定最少将净利的30%作为股息分发给股东，去年每股净利41.49仙，派发13.50仙的净股息。

3.马熔锡（MSC）公司股票被低

马熔锡（MSC）到6月30日的季度，每股净利36.30仙，今年上半年两个季度累积每股净赚66.90仙。

如果下半年能保持上半年的盈利的话，全年每股净利将高达1令吉34仙，以目前4令吉30仙的股价计算，预期本益比为3.2倍，马熔锡的母公司为在新加坡挂牌的蓝筹股海峡商行（Straits Trading），以如此强劲的后台，3.2倍的本益比，反映公司股票被低估。

4.菲马机构（FIMA CORP）手握2.5亿现金

菲马机构（FIMA CORP）本季每股净利高达33.4仙，如果接下来的3个季度能保持此盈利，全年每股净利可高达133.6仙（33.4仙x4＝133.6仙），以目前5令吉80仙的股价，本益比仅为4.4倍。

该公司去年全年，每股净赚98.78仙。

这家以印刷保安文件及油棕园为主的公司，吸引人的地方，是该公司以8243万令吉的实收资本，拥有1亿7262万令吉的净现金，财务之坚强可想而知。

菲马集团（KFIMA），拥有菲马机构61.92%股权。

菲马集团曾是一家债高公司，在1998年的东南亚货币风暴中，几乎倒闭，经过了十多年的奋斗，现在不但无债一身轻，而且手头拥有2亿5000万令吉的现金，简直是脱胎换骨。

该公司上一个财务年每股净赚26.99仙，派息7%。

今年首季每股净赚9.26仙，如果接下来的3个季度能保持此盈利额，全年每股净利将高达37仙（9.26仙x4 =37仙），以目前1令吉60仙左右的股价计算，预期本益比为4.3倍。

5.利直南（DKSH，前称DIET HELM）重组后业绩有突破

利直南（DKSH，前称DIET HELM）是一家由瑞士人控制，在大马有百年历史的洋行，主要业务为代客分销及推广产品，每年营业量将近40亿令吉，过去管理不当，业绩每况愈下，其股票价格在票面值下徘徊多年，直到前年，大刀阔斧进行重组，去年业绩有突破性的表现，每股净利由过去的不到1仙，激增至17.72仙。

该公司上半年的盈利一向较下半年为低，例如去年第1季净赚1.57仙，第2季2.94仙，第3季赚6.57仙，第4季6.66仙。但今年一反常态，第1季就赚了6.77仙，如果未来3季能保持的话，今年的盈利将比去年更标青。

值得注意的是利直南即使在业绩低沉时，每年仍派发3%的股息，去年增至4.5%，今年如果业绩更佳，预料派息率将更高。

利直南的翻身，说明了管理对一家企业的重要性。

利直南由一家暮气沉沉的公司，转化为一家活力充沛的企业，说明了它具有强韧的生命力。

6.合礼申（Harrisons） 今年盈利或创高

有一些上市公司，不哗众取宠，平常很少新闻见报，实际上业绩有非常特出的表现，只因过于低调，故很少人发现其价值。

合礼申（Harrisons）就是个典型例子。

合礼申也好像利直南那样，是老牌洋行，现在控制权已落入东方人手里。

目前合礼申是由印尼华人控制。

请看该公司过去5年的业绩：

本财务年上半年每股净利为25.21仙，由于下半年的盈利通常较上半年为高，故今年全年盈利极可能创新高。

值得注意的是合礼申以6849万令吉的资本，却拥有8000多万令吉的现金（已扣负债）。

每股净有形资产价值4.21令吉。

分享锦集:贫穷的富翁

Aug 26th, 2011 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集

《世说新语》有一则这样的故事：曹操带兵打仗，有一次，为了赶路，错过了水源，兵士们都口渴得厉害，都不想走了。

曹操见势不妙，心生一计，他传令说：“前面有一片梅子林，结了许多梅子，又甜又酸，可以解渴。”

士兵们听说后，嘴里都流出口水，口就没有那么干渴难忍了。

靠着这一招，军队才能安然无事，赶到前方的水源。

后人因此把可望而不可及的东西，称为“望梅止渴”。

股市中，不乏望梅止渴之人。

要了解此言，还需从“股票是什么”说起。

股票就是股份的证书，这张证书，证明你在企业的拥有权，拥有权的大小，跟你所持股票的巴仙率成正比。

当权不当家

假设一家上市公司的实收资本为6000万令吉，分为每股面值1令吉的股票共6000万股，假设你从股市中买进600万股，占有此公司的10%股权，该公司的资产中，有10%是属于你的，该公司所赚的钱，有10%也是属于你的。

召开股东大会，针对重要的事项，需要股东的批准，在投票时，你有10%的投票权，因为你就是公司许多老板之一。

老板们拥有公司的一切，居于至高无上的地位，掌握生杀大权，照理可以呼风唤雨，但这是指在公司拥有控制性股权的大股东而言。

永远是输家

至于小股东嘛，表面上是老板之一，却是当权不当家，对公司的事，平常根本无权过问。

许多关系股东利益的事，大股东说了算数，小股东尽管可以在股东大会中高喊“不公平”，对小股东不利的提案，例如在私有化中，以半价收购公司的资产，还是照样通过，小股东只有咬牙切齿的份儿，根本奈何大股东不得。

表面上付诸票决，一人一票，民主得很，但是股东中的“少数民族”，永远是输家，民主也者，只是个掩人耳目的幌子而已。

民主民主，多少弊政，假汝之名以行？

许多上市公司的小股东，都是名副其实的“贫穷的富翁”。

看到动不到

在货币不断贬值下，百万根本不能称为富翁。

在印尼，“百万富翁”只能当笑话说；在大马，“百万富翁”早该改为“千万富翁”。

假设你拥有上述上市公司的10%股权，计600万股。

如果该公司的每股净有形资产价值为3令吉，拥有600万股等于拥有1800万令吉的资产，即使在大马，也配称为“富翁”了吧？

但是，却是个“贫穷的富翁”，因为你根本无权动用这1800万令吉的资产，因为这1800万令吉的资产是由大股东控制，你是看得到(有时甚至看不到)而吃不到。

这种情形，就好像你拥有价值1800万令吉的地产，但荷包里却不名一文，你根本连一份5令吉的杂饭也买不起。

这不是“贫穷”是什么？你是名副其实的“贫穷的富翁”。

勿买不派息股项

所谓“投资”，就是把资金投注在某种资产中，目的是要获取利润。

投资的方式有两种：一种是亲力亲为，自己亲自“下海”。

另一种是自己没条件做生意，只好“龙邦”别人的生意，成为当权不当家的小股东。

买上市公司的股份，就是属于后者，美其名为“投资”，实际上是免费将钱交给别人去使用，希望从中分到一点利润，实际的情况却往往跟理想相差一万八千里。

赚多派息少

慢说公司不赚钱，即使赚到了，小股东也未必受惠，在芸芸千家上市公司中，试问有多少家是定期派发股息的？有多少家有“派息政策”的？又有多少家派发“可观”的股息？

许多上市公司赚大钱，派息却微不足道，公司的银库储存巨额现金，却不分发给股东，小股东望着他的公司银柜中白花花的银子，只有猛吞口水份儿，比“望梅止渴”更难受。

公司赚大钱，股息低得可怜，大股东说公司需要资金扩展业务，生意越做越多，盈利越来越高，公司股份价值与日俱增，股票增值，使小股东越来越富有，这是投资终极目标。

如果掌权的大股东真的是这样做的话，那么他们岂止是真正的企业家，简直是在做善事，他们为股东创富，增加了股东的福祉，提高了他们的生活素质，这样做的人，不是“善人”是什么？

但是，一些上市公司，手头拥有巨额现金，既不发展业务，也不分发给股东，小股东一无所得，他们却长期领高薪，怎么说得过去？

当公司还是私人有限公司时，大股东所用的，是国产车，一切开销，以“节俭”为原则。

公司上市后，大股东换用新“奔驰”，理由是要维持上市公司掌舵人的形象；另一个理由是“等级”，大掌柜不坐“奔驰”，总经理怎能坐“豪华”？不提供“豪华”，如何能聘到人才，留住人才？

所以，大股东非坐新“奔驰”不可。

一切开销，不是以“节俭”，而是以级别为原则，上市的都是大公司，大公司一切讲“制度”，什么级别、应领何种薪酬、享受何种福利，都有明文规定，马虎不得，否则，就被视为尚未上轨道的“土”公司。

这就说明了何以多数新上市公司，挂牌后的业绩表现，很少能做到招股说明书许下的盈利诺言的原因。

新上市公司都是在业绩最高时上市，盛极难为继，上市后多数业绩走下坡，所以新股多数不宜恋栈，只有极少数大型上市公司值得持守下去。

现在上市公司股票的定价，都是由公司自订，证券会及股票交易所均不过问。

公司在股东将股份卖给公众人士，全部收入进入自己的荷包，为自己的利益着想，他们理所当然的将公司的股份予以最高的估值，使他们卖出30%后，不但已收回全部投资，而且可能还赚了数倍，公司上市后，需要花数年的时间，股票的价值才能跟上估值。

在这期间，公司需要累积盈余，以发展业务，导致股息微不足道，甚至多年不发股息，使小股东成为“贫穷的富翁”。

坚守2原则

要避免成为“贫穷的富翁”，散户在买股时，应坚持两个原则：

1.不买亏蚀公司的股票，除非是在可以预见的将来可以转亏为盈。

2.不买不派息公司的股票，除非公司具有明显成长潜能。

避开长期没盈利及不派股息的公司，你才有可能从“贫穷的富翁”成为“有钱的富翁”。

一份GDP修正報告，讓美股跌回起漲區

Smart智富月刊第157期 2011-08-29

美股8月重挫的禍首到底是誰？是歐債、美債、還是大家擔心全球經濟會二次衰退？仔細比對所有總體經濟數據，以上3項可能都不是，禍首應該是美國商務部7月28日公布的國內生產 毛額（GDP）修正報告！

現狀：修正報告洩漏基本面真相，美股漲多修正
新公布的GDP修正報告將美國從2003年到2011年第2季為止的GDP數據做了全面性修正，其中，關鍵影響是2008～2009年（金融海嘯期 間）的經濟衰退比舊有數據嚴重許多。以年度看，原本2007～2010年前後4年的GDP年均成長率為0.1%，現在變成-0.3%，意思是原數據顯示這 4年美國經濟平均下來是零成長，現在卻變成是負成長。

更要命的是，從絕對金額看，按照原數據，美國GDP總和在2010年第3季已經越過海嘯前高點，民間消費則早在2010年第2季就超越前高。可是，新數據卻顯示民間消費延後兩季、到去年第4季才越過海嘯前高點，GDP總和則是到目前為止都未越過海嘯前高點。

這個調整為什麼衝擊股市？以德國投資大師科斯托蘭尼的「主人與狗」論來分析最清楚：「主人」代表經濟基本面，「狗」則是股市行情，狗常會跑在主人之前，意指股市反映基本面利多可能超漲。距離一旦過遠，狗又會回頭找主人，即股市超漲後會回跌，以符合基本面實況。

以美國情況看，舊數據既然顯示美國GDP在去年第3季已超越海嘯前高點，加上美國聯準會（Fed）去年8月宣布實施第二次量化寬鬆政策（QE2）， 股市反映基本面數據、加上資金面利多，美股果然從去年9月起漲。如今，新數據告訴大家基本面根本沒那麼好，行情當然應該跌回去年第3季的起漲區。

對照美股這波大跌，確實跌到去年第3季的起漲區後，跌勢即告趨緩。至於行情能否守穩此區間？關鍵就看後續每季公布的GDP數據是否繼續往上，還是如市場目前擔心的會彎頭下滑。

未來：3數據證明景氣緩步復甦
對於未來美國經濟的預測， 美國聯準會成員、費城聯邦銀行行長普拉瑟（Charles Plosser）8月下旬接受電台訪問時即指出，聯準會8月9日會議中對經濟的描繪太負面（excessively negative），他寧願等到下個月（指9月），看看下半年經濟復甦預期是否會成為現實。按他的說法，美國經濟其實不如外界想像的糟，聯準會先前因為經 濟不如預期，就決定未來兩年都將維持目前超低利率的做法，其實是太急了。

普拉瑟為什麼對美國經濟復甦比較樂觀？因為從下面3項最新的美國總經數據看，景氣仍在緩步復甦，並未見到所謂的「二次衰退」：

1. 美國零售銷售仍舊亮眼
7月份零售月增率為0.5%，年增率則為8.5%，均超越市場預期，顯示美國民間消費並未看淡。特別是先前因日本大地震造成零件供應斷鏈的汽車銷售，7月已明顯回溫，未來幾季可望持續增長。如果美國民間消費動能維持不墜，將是經濟增長的最大基石。

2.油品進口大減可望刺激民生消費
6月代表美國內需的進口額比上月減少18億美元，細究其項目，原來是油價6月明顯下滑，使得石油製品和原 油進口金額大減，光是這兩項減幅就達15億6,000萬美元。不過，油品相關進口縮減占大宗，表示其他消費和投資需求並未明顯減少。7月下旬起油價跌更 凶，美國人的用油花費預估可以再減少，因此若能刺激其他民生消費增長，對提振美國內需反而是利多。

3. 失業狀況持續改善
至於外界最擔心的美國失業狀況，7月非農業就業人口增加數創3個月新高，連同5、6月都聯袂上修，總共新增5萬 7,000人，最難能可貴的是新增就業全部來自民間部門，因政府部門同期間是裁減3萬7,000人，已連續9個月下滑。在景氣如此惡劣的情況下，民間部門 僱用員工還能增加。搭配個人所得未來若能進一步走高，美國民間消費年底前實在不必太過悲觀。

▲美國非農就業人口已止跌回升

選股比擇時重要

撰文者：朱紀中

常有朋友問道：「現在可以進場嗎？」不論買股票、或基金。老實說，我根本不知從何答起。因為第1、不知他的資金狀況，到底是有多少錢？這些錢是否為 閒錢？第2、不知他的目標，是想存退休金，還是套牢想翻本？最後，也是最重要的一點：我又不是神！連明天台北股市的漲跌都無法預測，如何能預測其他市場、 或是商品未來3個月、半年或是1年的漲跌？簡單一句話，投資若論「擇時」，真是太難了。

雖然我認識一、兩位長輩，征戰投資市場20、30年，他們常能用豐富的操盤經驗、對景氣的敏銳觀察，近乎精準地抓到行情轉折點。但是，他們畢竟不是 神，不是每次都準。我也不好意思天天如影隨形地跟在這些高人身邊，只為了知道要買、要抱、還是要賣。相對的，如果你問我：「有什麼好標的可以買？」我可能 比較會有答案，至少可以找到較多朋友問到一些「迷人」的標的。例如，今年初，拜訪一位從事代客操作的基金經理人，他有超過20年的投資經驗，他建議我去買 1檔被低估的汽車股，我一週後買進，沒多久因為歐債危機造成股市回檔，一度賠了11%，但長抱半年賣掉，賺逾40%。

這個經驗讓我確信：選股絕對比擇時重要！至於報我買股的高手，是本期封面故事中的一位主角——首華投顧總經理黃慶和。除了他，主筆呂郁青還為大家找了幾位高手，要教大家如何選股，好在股災過後，好好賺一波！

PPB: Wilmar tie-up to bring long-term gains

Written by Haziq Hamid  
Tuesday, 06 September 2011 12:11

KUALA LUMPUR: Faced with limited growth and thinning margins for its flour business here, billionaire Tan Sri Robert Kuok’s PPB Group Bhd is stepping up expansion in Indonesia and Vietnam, where operations are less regulated relative to Malaysia.

This year’s capital expenditure has been raised to RM267 million from RM190 million, largely due to doubling capacity of its flour mills in Indonesia to 2,000 tonnes/day, PPB managing director Tan Gee Sooi said after the company AGM last month.

The expansion in capacity takes place as the group finalises its acquisition of 20% of the first of several flour mills in China run by its 18.3%-owned associate Wilmar International Ltd, he added.

“We want to make sure the paper work is done properly,” chief financial officer Leong Choy Ying said, adding that completion of the stake acquisition in Wilmar’s other China flour mills should happen faster once the first transaction goes through.

Tan gave minimal details on the size of Wilmar’s flour business in China that PPB is buying nor its expansion plans save the fact that their partnership “makes a lot of business sense”.

“We won’t see a big impact [from the 20% stake] in the next few years on PPB, but in the longer term, there are a lot of synergies and strategic benefits of having Wilmar as a partner,” he said.

About 70% of revenue for FFM Bhd, PPB’s flour business arm, is from Malaysia, with 18% coming from Indonesia and 9% Vietnam. It also has a flour mill in Thailand. Given that the sale of a 20% stake in FFM to Wilmar was completed in March, PPB saw a slight dilution in its 2Q11 numbers, Leong said.

FFM’s flour business and contributions from Singapore-listed Wilmar form the bulk of PPB’s grains trading, flour and feed milling segment, which contributed 54.74% of the group’s RM1.26 billion revenue for 1H11 ended June 30, and 48.48% of the RM126 million earnings for the same period.

FFM has about 35% of Malaysia’s flour business, FFM managing director Ong Hung Hock said. Higher wheat prices pressured margins of its flour business, especially in Malaysia, where the price of general purpose flour is regulated at RM1.35 per kg, while it is sold at RM2.10 per kg in neighbouring Indonesia, he said.

FFM’s flour business is doing “fairly well” in Indonesia, though still “very small” compared with market leader Bogasari produced by Salim Group’s PT Indofood Sukses Makmur.

Like Wilmar, which is expanding in consumer staples like rice and sugar after capturing just under 50% of China’s branded cooking oil market and top three positions in the same business in India, Indonesia and Vietnam, PPB is also working on building long-term value by growing its consumer businesses by introducing more branded products. To counter thinning margins at its local flour business, PPB has diversified into the higher margin sliced bread business here.

After the soft launch in July, PPB’s Massimo branded bread is doing well, Tan said, but declined to reveal more details except that its RM110 million bakery complex in Pulau Indah, Port Klang, is capable of producing 10,000 loaves of bread an hour. “The bread business is only at the commissioning stage, so it’s too premature to speak of performance.”

PPB expects the broader consumer products division — which contributed 13.86% of top line and 7.09% of earnings in 1H11 — to perform well in 3Q11 due to increased trading during the Hari Raya celebration. It added that the outlook for consumer demand in Malaysia and the Asian region remains encouraging.

Tan reiterated that PPB had no plans to list Golden Screen Cinemas Sdn Bhd (GSC), which contributed 10.24% of group revenue and 17% of earnings for 1H11. “We have no problem financing growth ourselves, so it might be a long time before we consider listing anything.”

Koh Mei Lee, CEO of GSC, said 2012 would be another busy year with double-digit top line growth expected for Malaysia’s largest cinema operator with about 40% of box office market share. Having succeeded here, GSC is exploring opportunities to expand in other markets, including China, said Koh, adding that discussions are already under way with “a big Chinese firm involved in the cinema and entertainment industry.”

On contribution from Wilmar, which was lower at RM432 million in 1H11 versus RM452 million the year before, Tan said PPB is “still quite comfortable” with the latter’s performance.

As contributions from Wilmar’s newly acquired sugar business will start to kick in only in 2H11, analysts are optimistic of a better performance ahead.
Moreover, there may also be a lower base effect, given that Wilmar had incurred its first-ever back-to-back loss at its oilseeds trading business in 2H10.

Improved numbers from Wilmar could boost fortunes for PPB, which analysts still see as the largest mover for its earnings for the time being.

PPB had two “buy” calls versus one “sell” recommendation, according to Bloomberg data. KAF Seagroatt & Campbell Research is very bullish, valuing PPB at RM19.60 apiece, followed by AmResearch’s RM19.35 target price.

HwangDBS Vickers Research deemed PPB “fully valued” at RM16.30. PPB’s valuation “remains unattractive” at 17 times forward earnings, the research house said in an Aug 24 note, adding that it did not see any near-term re-rating catalysts for the stock.

“Our relative pick is Wilmar for a stronger, more liquid proxy to growing opportunities in China. On a relative basis, PPB Group’s share price also continues to outpace Wilmar and is trading at a premium,” HwangDBS said.

PPB lost 24 sen or 1.4% to close at RM16.80 yesterday and Wilmar shed 11 cents or 2.1% to end at S$5.06 (RM12.49).

This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, September 6, 2011.

MEGB- surprising drop in revenue

Results Update

MEGB reported its results for QE30/6/2011 on August 26. Its net profit declined by 49% q-o-q or 48% y-o-y to RM11.6 million while its turnover also dropped by 11.0% q-o-q or 14.7% y-o-y to RM65.8 million. The drop in its net profit was attributed to higher depreciation charges & staff costs due to its on-going expansion. MEGB would require higher revenue in order to recover the increased overhead. Instead, MEGB's revenue declined. This is a very worrying sign. From Note 3 to the account, we can see the decline was attributable to two factors:

1. Lower PTPTN loan for diploma students, from RM60,000 to RM45,000. This caused MEGB to reduce its student fee to RM50,000.
2. The intake requirement has been raised from 3 credits to 5 credits in SPM examination.

Unless, these two factors are revised, I believe MEGB's financial performance would not recover anytime soon. MEGB has always targeted students from the lower income group which are very dependent on PTPTN loans.

Table: MEGB's last 9 quarterly results

I have appended below the charts for MEGB's top-line & bottom-line performance for the past 9 quarters as well as the profit margin during the period. We can clearly see that MEGB's profit margin began to slide almost immediately after its listing. In the past 2 quarters, MEGB's revenue has been sliding due to reasons stated above.


Chart 1: MEGB's last 9 quarterly results


Chart 2: MEGB's last 9 quarterly profit margin
Financial Position

As at 30/6/2011. MEGB's financial position is deemed satisfactory with current ratio at 4 times & negligible gearing of 0.1 time. It has cash in hand of RM132 million as well as Receivables, Deposit & Prepayment of RM130 million. It is quite normal to collect some fees or deposit upfront which are either booked in as cash or Receivables, Deposit & Prepayment.

Valuation
MEGB (closed at RM1.21 now) is trading at a PE of 10 times (based on annualized EPS of 12 sen). At this PE multiple, MEGB is deemed fairly valued.
Technical Outlook

MEGB has broken its strong horizontal support at RM1.60, which happened to be its recent low. A new all-time low is a very bearish development and MEGB would have to find some support somewhere & recover from the persistent selling. Could it find this support at the psychological RM1.00 level? Only time will tell.

Chart 3: MEGB's daily chart as at Sept 2, 2011_3.00pm (Source: Quickcharts)
Conclusion

Based on poor technical outlook & financial performance, MEGB is expected to slide further. While the temptation to buy into the stock is alluring due to the sharp decline, the stock could be a value trap as it could get even more attractive as the price continued to slide. I believe a recovery is only possible once the revenue has stabilized & begins to recover. Another stock with a similar problem is Haio.

Posted by Alex Lu at 9/02/2011 03:35:00 PM  

Masterskill extends losses on poor result, downgrade

Written by Surin Murugiah of theedgemalaysia.com
Friday, 02 September 2011 11:18

KUALA LUMPUR: Masterskill Education Group Bhd extended its losses on Friday, Sept 2 after its disappointing second quarter financial results and weaker outlook.

At 11.15am, Masterskill was down eight sen to RM1.24 with 3.2 million shares done.

Last week, the education group reported that its second quarter earnings, for the period ended June 30, fell 48% to RM11.57 million from RM22.43 million a year ago. It revenue declined 14.7% to RM65.78 million from RM77.11 million.

For the first half, its earnings declined by 30.4% to RM34.16 million from RM49.11 million.

CIMB Equities Research had downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral, reducing its target price and also slashing its earnings per share (EPS) forecast.

The research house said Masterskill’s annualised 1H11 core net profit was 43% below its forecast and 40% below consensus because of poor student numbers and a 10.8 percentage points shortfall in EBITDA margin due to surprisingly high operating costs.

“The 44% year-on-year plunge in net student intake was a negative surprise and should be equally weak in 2H. In the medium term, student intake prospects are unexciting and margins will be under pressure,” it said.

CIMB Research also slashed its FY11-FY13 EPS forecasts by 43%-45% and dividends per share (DPS) forecasts by 53%-54%.

The research house also said it had cut the target price from RM3.48 to RM1.71 as it raised its discount to the 14.5 times market P/E from 30% to 40%, which lowered its target CY12 price-to-earnings from 10.2 times to 8.7 times.

“Our rating is downgraded from Outperform to NEUTRAL. The stock’s sole attraction is its dividend yield of 5%-7%,” it said

Genting further expands Miami presence

Written by theedgemalaysia.com
Thursday, 01 September 2011 13:07

KUALA LUMPUR: Genting Group is further expanding its presence in Miami, Florida several months after it unveiled its US$3 billion Resorts World Miami mixed development project.

Its latest acquisition was in mid-August when it purchased a 17,500-sq-ft plot of land north of downtown Miami for US$1.25 million from former Sony Music executive Tommy Mottola.

The Daily Business Review reported on Wednesday, Aug 31 that Genting’s 42%-owned investment holding company Two Digital, had acquired the property.

Interestingly, the Review said Miami-Dade County property records showed Two Digital had also in August earlier acquired 3.6 acres of mostly vacant land for US$29.4 million.

The 3.6 acres of land is within walking distance from the Miami Herald headquarters building acquired by Genting.

To recap, The Edge FinancialDaily had in June reported that Genting Malaysia Bhd had bought the 13.9-acre (5.6ha) Herald property for US$236 million in northern downtown Miami. The property includes parking lots and the building that houses the Herald, which is owned by the McClatchy Co.

Soon after the acquisition of the Herald property, Genting Group head Tan Sri Lim Kok Thay announced the hiring of Miami-based Arquitectonica to create the master plan for the Resorts World Miami mixed development.

It would house hotels, restaurants, residences, entertainment outlets, retail shops and a convention centre. The initial master plan draft was slated for release end-August.

Meanwhile, the Review quoted Luigi Mercurio, a broker with Esslinger Wooten Maxwell in Miami Beach that Genting's plan to redevelop the Herald site has not yet spurred any significant investor activity.

Mercurio and colleague Jeff Cohen marketed the Mottola property and brokered the Aug. 17 deal. The pair also is seeking buyers for two other Omni area parcels on behalf of Mottola, the Review said.

Resorts World Miami is Genting Malaysia’s second venture in the US after Resorts World New York at the historic Aqueduct Racetrack which is slated for opening by year-end.