Written by Jose Barrock Wednesday, 21 September 2011 11:14
KUALA LUMPUR: The recent rally in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) could be short-lived as orders from Japan and China, and shipping disputes give way to a gloomy demand/supply picture.
Last Friday, the BDI, which tracks the cost of carriage of dry bulk goods such as iron ore, grain and coal, across sea routes, plunged 93 points or 4.88% to 1,814.
The charter rates for Capesize ships, so named as they can’t pass through both the Suez and Panama canals, fell 12% to about US$24,739 (RM77,680) a day, the steepest fall in eight months.
The BDI fell by another 50 points or 2.8% on Monday to 1,764.
This is a reversal to the 40% plus gain since early August, which drove the index to its highest level since December 2010.
Gains on the index were brought about by a rise in Japanese demand for coal and iron ore in the wake of the tsunami earlier this year that ravaged many parts of Japan. The country is rebuilding infrastructure and requires a replacement for the energy shortfall caused by the shutdown of the Fukushima nuclear power plant.
Other than orders from Japan that stirred the benchmark index, China has also stoked demand for coal and iron ore to meet steel production needs, further nudging the index northwards.
Charter disputes between China Ocean Shipping Co Ltd (Cosco) and Hong Kong’s Jinhui Shipping, Greece’s DryShips and Navios, and Switzerland’s Bunge SA also helped the index gain momentum.
Many companies had reportedly shied away from chartering Cosco’s vessels for fear of the ships being seized, which also aided the index in gaining ground. Cosco, the world’s third largest owner of dry bulk commodity vessels, has had three ships seized in the US and Singapore in the past three months, according to a Bloomberg report.
Such charter disputes are rife when rates pick up as charterers attempt to hire ships for older, lower prices while owners try to lock in newer, higher rates.
Despite the recent good run for charter rates, most pundits expect the situation to “normalise” soon given the dry bulk market’s gloomy outlook, during which overcapacity prevails.
So far this year, 166 vessels have been delivered, and an additional 156 are likely to be commissioned in the last three months of 2011. This will increase the world’s dry bulk fleet by over 13%, or more than triple the 4% rise in commodity shipping requirements, details from Clarkson Research Services, a unit of shipbrokers Clarkson plc, indicated.
Many of the orders were made in May 2008, when the Baltic Dry Index reached a record high of 11,793 points. Unfortunately, by the end of the same year, the index had shed about 90% of its value.
Many of the ships ordered during 2008 are being delivered now.
On the local front, Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd (Maybulk), controlled by tycoon Robert Kuok Hock Nien, has managed to remain in the black. For the six months ended June, the company posted a net profit of RM74.55 million on revenue of RM154.57 million. The company’s earnings per share for the six months stood at 7.45 sen.
For the corresponding period a year ago, Maybulk chalked up a net profit of RM82.92 million on RM210.5 million in revenue.
“The group maintains a cautious outlook and sees a challenging second half,” Maybulk said.
Its share price ended unchanged at RM1.81 yesterday, trading at a 52-week low.
Another local dry bulk player, Hubline Bhd, posted a net profit of RM17.36 million on RM448.1 million in sales for its nine months ended June 2011. In its cash flow statement, the company stated that RM15.96 million was generated from the sale of property, plant and equipment.
“The general outlook for both the container shipping business and dry-bulk market is expected to be challenging in view of the uncertainty in the global economy,” Hubline said.
The stock closed unchanged at nine sen yesterday, just off a 52-week low of eight sen.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, September 21, 2011.
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