The controlling block of shares attracts at least two parties
PETALING JAYA: A controlling block of shares in Masterskill Education Group Bhd may be up for sale with at least two parties said to be interested.
Sources said the block of shares up for sale could come from existing major shareholders who are interested in having a strong, strategic partner come into Masterskill.
Among the interested parties are said to be a government-linked fund, which has a presence in healthcare and would like to extend the education aspect of that sector. Another party is said to be large education group.
The top substantial shareholders of Masterskill are founder Datuk Seri Edmund Santhara with 22.1%, private equity firm Crescent Point with 21.5% and Siva Kumar Jeyapalan with a 10% stake.
Endless woes: Masterskill is facing low student enrolment arising from the higher nursing minimum entry requirements
Heavy trading volume was seen recently after the emergence of Siva as a substantial shareholder of the education group, following his acquisition of 41.2 million shares, or a 10.05% stake on Oct 5.
When contacted, Siva downplayed any likelihood of a sale and only said he would consider to exit the group if the price offered is comfortable for him.
“I acquired the shares from the open market and I believe in the business and the opportunities it present, which is worth more than what it is trading at right now,” he said.
He also expressed his disappointment at the group's recently announced quarterly results.
“To be very blunt, I am not happy with the results. The board needs to buck up and I have made known my concerns to the board,” he said.
Masterskill's third quarter ended Sept 30, 2011 saw its net profit plunging by a significant 78% year-on-year to RM5.5mil from RM26.18mil. Revenue shrank by 24% to RM61.2mil. It stated that part of the reasons for the declining numbers was weak student intakes.
Masterskill has been faced with low student enrolment arising from the higher nursing minimum entry requirements, coupled with a shift in industry trend whereby fewer students are pursuing diploma courses in private education institutions.
There seems to be no end to Masterskill's woes as the group was dealt with another setback when the National Higher Education Fund proposed to reduce loans for students studying at high educational institutions.
Before Masterskill was listed, Siva was the founding member of the group before he sold his stake to Crescent Point back in 2006.
Meanwhile, Edmund could not be reached for comment.
The stock has fallen sharply from its IPO price of RM3.80 in May last year, and reached an all-time low of RM1.06 on Oct 3.
The counter is currently trading near its all-time low at RM1.09 and at a price to earnings ratio of only 5.79 times.
It was speculated last year that Crescent Point was looking to sell their stake in Masterskill in a deal that could fetch more than US$200mil.
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Now you and I can also be an independent power producer
Households as clean, sustainable electricity producers?
In the mid-1990s, there were only “big” boys in electricity generation such as YTL Corp, Genting Sanyen and Malakoff. They were popularly known as Independent Power producers' or IPPs and were looked upon with envy as it was alleged that they were making big bucks because of relatively high rates they received from TNB.
Fast forward 15 years. Now you and I can also be an IPP (the term “clean and sustainable electricity producer” is preferred) albeit a very much smaller one but with a difference.
Any owner of a link, semi-detached or bungalow house can now be, subject to approval, a small clean and sustainable energy producer by generating green electricity (as opposed to fossil-fuelled electricity by the big IPPs) and distribution licensee (such as TNB) is obliged to purchase it. What all this means is that if you have a solar photovoltaic (PV) generator at home, you can apply to connect this generator to the grid, and get paid for selling the electricity generated to TNB over the next 21 years.
Solar energy is clean, environmentally friendly and has zero emissions. There is no depletion of natural resources and it is one of the fastest growing energy sources in the world.
And yes the rates are very attractive for generating electricity using solar photovoltaic (PV) technology; it is about four times the normal domestic TNB electricity rates (at RM0.40 per kWh). All you have to do is simply to apply and obtain a feed-in approval from the newly-established Sustainable Energy Development Authority Malaysia (Seda Malaysia), sign a renewable energy power purchase agreement (REPPA) with TNB and install the solar PV system on your rooftop.
On the average, the bungalow is able to produce about 1,000 kWh of electricity per month (based on 10kW installed PV capacity). Given this, the owner may earn about RM1,200 per month (based on FiT rate RM1.20 per kWh if the PV system is commissioned by 2012) and recoup his investment within eight to nine years. The earnings may be even higher if the house owner meets other bonus criteria such as installing as a building-integrated PV system. The current cost of 1 kW solar PV system ranges from RM12,000 to RM14,000.
The interesting thing is that for your average household needs, you purchase the electricity from TNB at between RM0.33 to 42.6 per kWh but when you produce the clean electricity, you can sell it at between RM1.20 to RM1.70 per kWh depending on the installed capacity and the qualifying bonus criteria for solar PV.
The longer the sun shines, the more one can “export” electricity to the national grid during daylight hours (when power is urgently needed) and earn income. The downside and risk is that during cloudy days, the income can be reduced significantly when the sun is not shining. If you apply now, you can lock in these premium rates for the next 21 years!
Unlike the huge IPPs which use natural gas or coal as feedstock to generate electricity, the household does not need to pay for any raw material or fuel because sunshine is free. For as long as the sun is shining, the solar PV panels will generate electricity. Another advantage of solar power is that no extra space is required because the panels can be installed on the rooftop. (Suddenly rooftops have income potential. Many factory owners are now contemplating installing solar PV panels on their rooftop to earn extra revenue while others are approaching factory owners to rent them their roofs.)
On Dec 1 2011, Seda Malaysia invited the public including households, small and not-so-big IPPs (maximum size is 30 MW but only 5 MWp rated capacity for solar PV) to apply and book the amount of green electricity they intended to produce to sell it to the distribution licensee. There are fixed quotas for each of the four renewable energy sources namely biomass (including solid waste), biogas (including landfill), small hydro and solar PV. There was overwhelming response to solar PV especially for the non-individuals.
The good news is that bookings are still open for individuals and households intending to install solar PV systems as there is still available capacity for this category. As at Dec 7, Seda reported that the total unfulfilled quota for solar PV is 6,650 kW; 1,650 kW to be commissioned by the first half 2013, 2500 kW each for second half of 2013 and first half of 2014.
Translating these figures into households, it would mean that about 665 bungalow owners can avail themselves to the remaining capacity (assuming their average capacity is 10 kW). If all of the remaining capacity is taken up by semi-detached owners, the number will increase to 1,330 assuming their installed PV capacity is 5 kW. The figure for typical link houses, assuming an installed capacity of 3 kW, is 2,217 households.
The price guarantee for 21 years has been made possible by the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) scheme implemented by Seda Malaysia. This scheme will be financed by the newly-established Renewable Energy (RE) Fund, to which all electricity users (except for those domestic customers consuming less than 300 kWh per month) will be required to contribute an additional 1% of their electricity bill.
House-owners who do not participate in solar PV electricity generation should not begrudge the payment of the additional 1%. Instead they should view it as one of their contributions to a cleaner and healthier environment. This is their social contribution for cleaner air. The public and community must also share in undertaking this heavy responsibility with the Government.
Dr Pola Singh is a board member of the Sustainable Energy Development Authority (Seda), Malaysia. The views expressed are his own. The public can apply for the feed-in approval via efit.seda.gov.my and more information can be obtained from Seda's official portal at www.seda.gov.my
In the mid-1990s, there were only “big” boys in electricity generation such as YTL Corp, Genting Sanyen and Malakoff. They were popularly known as Independent Power producers' or IPPs and were looked upon with envy as it was alleged that they were making big bucks because of relatively high rates they received from TNB.
Fast forward 15 years. Now you and I can also be an IPP (the term “clean and sustainable electricity producer” is preferred) albeit a very much smaller one but with a difference.
Any owner of a link, semi-detached or bungalow house can now be, subject to approval, a small clean and sustainable energy producer by generating green electricity (as opposed to fossil-fuelled electricity by the big IPPs) and distribution licensee (such as TNB) is obliged to purchase it. What all this means is that if you have a solar photovoltaic (PV) generator at home, you can apply to connect this generator to the grid, and get paid for selling the electricity generated to TNB over the next 21 years.
Solar energy is clean, environmentally friendly and has zero emissions. There is no depletion of natural resources and it is one of the fastest growing energy sources in the world.
And yes the rates are very attractive for generating electricity using solar photovoltaic (PV) technology; it is about four times the normal domestic TNB electricity rates (at RM0.40 per kWh). All you have to do is simply to apply and obtain a feed-in approval from the newly-established Sustainable Energy Development Authority Malaysia (Seda Malaysia), sign a renewable energy power purchase agreement (REPPA) with TNB and install the solar PV system on your rooftop.
On the average, the bungalow is able to produce about 1,000 kWh of electricity per month (based on 10kW installed PV capacity). Given this, the owner may earn about RM1,200 per month (based on FiT rate RM1.20 per kWh if the PV system is commissioned by 2012) and recoup his investment within eight to nine years. The earnings may be even higher if the house owner meets other bonus criteria such as installing as a building-integrated PV system. The current cost of 1 kW solar PV system ranges from RM12,000 to RM14,000.
The interesting thing is that for your average household needs, you purchase the electricity from TNB at between RM0.33 to 42.6 per kWh but when you produce the clean electricity, you can sell it at between RM1.20 to RM1.70 per kWh depending on the installed capacity and the qualifying bonus criteria for solar PV.
The longer the sun shines, the more one can “export” electricity to the national grid during daylight hours (when power is urgently needed) and earn income. The downside and risk is that during cloudy days, the income can be reduced significantly when the sun is not shining. If you apply now, you can lock in these premium rates for the next 21 years!
Unlike the huge IPPs which use natural gas or coal as feedstock to generate electricity, the household does not need to pay for any raw material or fuel because sunshine is free. For as long as the sun is shining, the solar PV panels will generate electricity. Another advantage of solar power is that no extra space is required because the panels can be installed on the rooftop. (Suddenly rooftops have income potential. Many factory owners are now contemplating installing solar PV panels on their rooftop to earn extra revenue while others are approaching factory owners to rent them their roofs.)
On Dec 1 2011, Seda Malaysia invited the public including households, small and not-so-big IPPs (maximum size is 30 MW but only 5 MWp rated capacity for solar PV) to apply and book the amount of green electricity they intended to produce to sell it to the distribution licensee. There are fixed quotas for each of the four renewable energy sources namely biomass (including solid waste), biogas (including landfill), small hydro and solar PV. There was overwhelming response to solar PV especially for the non-individuals.
The good news is that bookings are still open for individuals and households intending to install solar PV systems as there is still available capacity for this category. As at Dec 7, Seda reported that the total unfulfilled quota for solar PV is 6,650 kW; 1,650 kW to be commissioned by the first half 2013, 2500 kW each for second half of 2013 and first half of 2014.
Translating these figures into households, it would mean that about 665 bungalow owners can avail themselves to the remaining capacity (assuming their average capacity is 10 kW). If all of the remaining capacity is taken up by semi-detached owners, the number will increase to 1,330 assuming their installed PV capacity is 5 kW. The figure for typical link houses, assuming an installed capacity of 3 kW, is 2,217 households.
The price guarantee for 21 years has been made possible by the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) scheme implemented by Seda Malaysia. This scheme will be financed by the newly-established Renewable Energy (RE) Fund, to which all electricity users (except for those domestic customers consuming less than 300 kWh per month) will be required to contribute an additional 1% of their electricity bill.
House-owners who do not participate in solar PV electricity generation should not begrudge the payment of the additional 1%. Instead they should view it as one of their contributions to a cleaner and healthier environment. This is their social contribution for cleaner air. The public and community must also share in undertaking this heavy responsibility with the Government.
Dr Pola Singh is a board member of the Sustainable Energy Development Authority (Seda), Malaysia. The views expressed are his own. The public can apply for the feed-in approval via efit.seda.gov.my and more information can be obtained from Seda's official portal at www.seda.gov.my
Monday, December 12, 2011
分享锦集：从零和到正和
Dec 9th, 2011 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集
这些年来，我不断摸索，想从投资理论的探讨，到实际投资经验的印证，找出一条较有把握的股市赚钱之路。
我说“较有把握”，是因为只要做到赚多亏少，对多错少，就可以达到累积财富的终极目标。
到目前为止，十全十美的投资秘诀，根本还没人找到。
这就是我写《败在心术不正》和《投资之道，利人利己》的目的。
这两篇文章刊出后，引来了一些闲言闲语，很明显的，有些读者对这两篇文章有些误解，误解源自：
1.断章取义，尤其是对《败在心术不正》。
2.把两篇文章孤立阅读。
这两篇文章其实是有连续性的，《败在心术不正》是从消极的角度，提醒大家避免掉进陷阱；《投资之道，利人利己》是从积极的角度，希望大家循正道投资，长期创富。
最明显的误会，是大家以为我把“低买高卖”，视为“骗人”的行为，这根本不是我的原意。
文中的例子已讲得很清楚，将只值得2令吉的股票，推高到10令吉，最后遭殃的必然是无知的散户，“把没有价值的股票推高，然后脱售给无知的散户，是损人利己的行为”（原文），形容这种“低买高卖”方式是“骗人”的行为，过份吗？
低买高卖，是一切商业赚钱的正当途径，我即使再无知，也不会幼稚到视低买高卖为“骗人”的行为。
以2令吉买进一只每股净利30仙的股票，当有关公司的每股净利增至40仙时，股价跟着上涨至3令吉，你赚了1令吉，这是绝对正常和正当的，股票原本就是应该这样投资的。
损人利己
但是，一只长期亏蚀，股价一向在10仙左右浮沉的垃圾股，由于人为的因素，短期内暴涨至1令吉以上，过后炒家饱食远飏，股价暴跌至一、二十仙，使无知的散户，血本无归，你同意不同意这是损人利己的行为？
我所指的“低买高卖”，是这一类的低买高卖行为。
这种一方得利，就必有另一方损失的做法，就是“零和游戏”。
股票投资的终极目标是累积财富，只有通过正当的经营手法，长期投资，才有可能创富，投机是零和游戏，很难创富。
只有将“零和”转化为“正和”，才能创富。
什么是“正和游戏”？
举一个例子：星狮（F&N）在2001年时，每股净赚23.6仙，股价为3令吉，到2005年时每股净赚37仙，股价涨至6令吉；到2010年时，每股净利涨至195.1仙，股价涨至16令吉。
由2001年至2010年，星狮的股价虽有起落，但10年都保持上升的趋势，而此种升势，是星狮的每股净利，每年都上升造成的。
有赚没亏
投资者在10年中的任何一年，以任何的价格买进该公司的股票，紧握不放，到现在都是有赚没亏，没有任何一人蒙受亏损。
投资于星狮，就是“正和游戏”。
其他投资于大众银行、健力士、安裕、吉隆甲洞、联合种植、IOI、安利、雀巢、DIGI、QL、顶级手套、云顶等好股的投资者，以10年为期，无论以何价买进，都无人亏本，他们有一个共同点，都是靠公司盈利继续上升而赚到钱。
在这10年中，这些公司的股价，也是跟着股市波动，每个投资者的买进价格都不同，但都赚了钱，这就是典型的“正和游戏”。
假如你检视一些业绩不断走下坡的公司的话，你会发现，现在的股价，反而比10年前更低，投资者如果投资于这类股票而赚到钱的话，他们所赚的，是来自别的投资者的损失，与公司的业绩无关，这就是“零和游戏”。
轻松赚钱
采取“正和游戏”投资法，你可以：轻轻松松投资，快快乐乐赚钱，悠悠闲闲过话。
采取“零和游戏”投资法，你会：烦烦恼恼投机，忧忧虑虑赚钱，提心吊胆过活。
你现在所过的是那一种投资生涯？所用的是那一种投资法？请自我检讨吧！
本周建议研究股项
常青油棕（Rsawit，5113，主板种植股）
资料搜寻及导读
1. 开电脑，进入www.bursamalaysia.com。
2. 点击Listed Companies。
3. 点击Prospectus。
4. 点击By Company。
5. 点击R，找出Rimbunan Sawit Berhad。
6. 点击及下载26/09/2011发表的附加股说明书（Abridged Prospectus）；详读这份178页的说明书，这是了解常青油棕和大马油棕业的最有用资料。
7. 请特别注意说明书第5.32页（在第13页）“该集团的展望及将来的计划”（Prospects and future plans of our group），你可
以在这里找到该集团的地库、种植面积、每公顷产量、树龄及未来三年的种植计划。
这些都是你评估该股价值的最重要资料。
（请参考拙作《30年股票投资心得》一书第161页“怎样评估种植股”）。
8. 常青油棕最近完成发附加股和红股，11月21日发表的到9月30日为止的第三季季报，来不及反映发红股和附加股后的情况，所以我建议不要过份重视第三季季报，而以《附加股说明书》的资料为评估根据。
思考重点
The Edge报道常青油棕将成为常青集团的油棕业旗舰公司，是否如此，你可以在《附加股说明书》第5.3项中找到答案。
特别声明
本栏旨在协助读者研究种植股，所提股票，是作为研究的范本，并非推荐购买。笔者可能拥有也可能没有拥有有关股票。
提示
买种植股就是买土地，地价有起没落，故种植股是稳当的投资。
这些年来，我不断摸索，想从投资理论的探讨，到实际投资经验的印证，找出一条较有把握的股市赚钱之路。
我说“较有把握”，是因为只要做到赚多亏少，对多错少，就可以达到累积财富的终极目标。
到目前为止，十全十美的投资秘诀，根本还没人找到。
这就是我写《败在心术不正》和《投资之道，利人利己》的目的。
这两篇文章刊出后，引来了一些闲言闲语，很明显的，有些读者对这两篇文章有些误解，误解源自：
1.断章取义，尤其是对《败在心术不正》。
2.把两篇文章孤立阅读。
这两篇文章其实是有连续性的，《败在心术不正》是从消极的角度，提醒大家避免掉进陷阱；《投资之道，利人利己》是从积极的角度，希望大家循正道投资，长期创富。
最明显的误会，是大家以为我把“低买高卖”，视为“骗人”的行为，这根本不是我的原意。
文中的例子已讲得很清楚，将只值得2令吉的股票，推高到10令吉，最后遭殃的必然是无知的散户，“把没有价值的股票推高，然后脱售给无知的散户，是损人利己的行为”（原文），形容这种“低买高卖”方式是“骗人”的行为，过份吗？
低买高卖，是一切商业赚钱的正当途径，我即使再无知，也不会幼稚到视低买高卖为“骗人”的行为。
以2令吉买进一只每股净利30仙的股票，当有关公司的每股净利增至40仙时，股价跟着上涨至3令吉，你赚了1令吉，这是绝对正常和正当的，股票原本就是应该这样投资的。
损人利己
但是，一只长期亏蚀，股价一向在10仙左右浮沉的垃圾股，由于人为的因素，短期内暴涨至1令吉以上，过后炒家饱食远飏，股价暴跌至一、二十仙，使无知的散户，血本无归，你同意不同意这是损人利己的行为？
我所指的“低买高卖”，是这一类的低买高卖行为。
这种一方得利，就必有另一方损失的做法，就是“零和游戏”。
股票投资的终极目标是累积财富，只有通过正当的经营手法，长期投资，才有可能创富，投机是零和游戏，很难创富。
只有将“零和”转化为“正和”，才能创富。
什么是“正和游戏”？
举一个例子：星狮（F&N）在2001年时，每股净赚23.6仙，股价为3令吉，到2005年时每股净赚37仙，股价涨至6令吉；到2010年时，每股净利涨至195.1仙，股价涨至16令吉。
由2001年至2010年，星狮的股价虽有起落，但10年都保持上升的趋势，而此种升势，是星狮的每股净利，每年都上升造成的。
有赚没亏
投资者在10年中的任何一年，以任何的价格买进该公司的股票，紧握不放，到现在都是有赚没亏，没有任何一人蒙受亏损。
投资于星狮，就是“正和游戏”。
其他投资于大众银行、健力士、安裕、吉隆甲洞、联合种植、IOI、安利、雀巢、DIGI、QL、顶级手套、云顶等好股的投资者，以10年为期，无论以何价买进，都无人亏本，他们有一个共同点，都是靠公司盈利继续上升而赚到钱。
在这10年中，这些公司的股价，也是跟着股市波动，每个投资者的买进价格都不同，但都赚了钱，这就是典型的“正和游戏”。
假如你检视一些业绩不断走下坡的公司的话，你会发现，现在的股价，反而比10年前更低，投资者如果投资于这类股票而赚到钱的话，他们所赚的，是来自别的投资者的损失，与公司的业绩无关，这就是“零和游戏”。
轻松赚钱
采取“正和游戏”投资法，你可以：轻轻松松投资，快快乐乐赚钱，悠悠闲闲过话。
采取“零和游戏”投资法，你会：烦烦恼恼投机，忧忧虑虑赚钱，提心吊胆过活。
你现在所过的是那一种投资生涯？所用的是那一种投资法？请自我检讨吧！
本周建议研究股项
常青油棕（Rsawit，5113，主板种植股）
资料搜寻及导读
1. 开电脑，进入www.bursamalaysia.com。
2. 点击Listed Companies。
3. 点击Prospectus。
4. 点击By Company。
5. 点击R，找出Rimbunan Sawit Berhad。
6. 点击及下载26/09/2011发表的附加股说明书（Abridged Prospectus）；详读这份178页的说明书，这是了解常青油棕和大马油棕业的最有用资料。
7. 请特别注意说明书第5.32页（在第13页）“该集团的展望及将来的计划”（Prospects and future plans of our group），你可
以在这里找到该集团的地库、种植面积、每公顷产量、树龄及未来三年的种植计划。
这些都是你评估该股价值的最重要资料。
（请参考拙作《30年股票投资心得》一书第161页“怎样评估种植股”）。
8. 常青油棕最近完成发附加股和红股，11月21日发表的到9月30日为止的第三季季报，来不及反映发红股和附加股后的情况，所以我建议不要过份重视第三季季报，而以《附加股说明书》的资料为评估根据。
思考重点
The Edge报道常青油棕将成为常青集团的油棕业旗舰公司，是否如此，你可以在《附加股说明书》第5.3项中找到答案。
特别声明
本栏旨在协助读者研究种植股，所提股票，是作为研究的范本，并非推荐购买。笔者可能拥有也可能没有拥有有关股票。
提示
买种植股就是买土地，地价有起没落，故种植股是稳当的投资。
林國泰：博奕結合休閑‧雲頂營業多元化
大馬財經 財經焦點 2011-12-12 18:30
（吉隆坡12日訊）雲頂（GENTING，3182，主板貿服組）擬斥資38億美元（約120億令吉）在美國邁阿密興建全球最大賭場兼休閒勝地，這項計劃舉世矚目，卻也令市場人士擔心，這項計劃可能引來一些爭議，特別是賭場往往與“偏門收入”聯繫在一起，其所造成的社會與經濟影響效應，能否超越博奕收入所產生的經濟效益，確實讓人關注。
雲頂主席兼首席執行員丹斯里林國泰表示，他有信心將亞洲的成功模式轉移到海外其他地方。該公司在新加坡經營47億新元（約115億令吉）的賭場兼度假勝地“聖淘沙名勝世界”，手上也擁有充裕的現金，可以在現金緊張的美國市場派上用場，況且美國政府正探討減少失業率、降低國家財政開銷等方案，為雲頂的擴張計劃減少擋路石。
林國泰認為，賭場結合有益身心的度假勝地，是比較理想的業務組合，不論是從金融或政治的層面來看，這不純粹只是博奕而已。
“如果只是為了賺錢，我們不會為了這個目的扼殺自己的前程。”
雲頂集團在大馬、新加坡及紐約擁有資產，主要圍繞在主題公園及度假勝地，賭場只是另一個吸引遊客的賣點。
林國泰表示，雲頂集團的經營方式也像家庭企業，他宣稱，員工不太常摩擦，部份原因是他們的就業環境不錯、工資也相當有競爭力。
林國泰（簡稱林）日前在新加坡接受《華爾街日報》（簡稱華）專訪，以下是訪談內容摘錄：
華：雲頂集團正把業務擴展至亞洲以外地區，你認為是否能將亞洲的成功模式複制，然後搬到美國的邁阿密市場？
林：當然可以，而且相信會成功。我們指的是邁阿密，不是擁有30個賭場的拉斯維加斯，邁阿密是一個世界級大都會，假如你準備前往南美洲，轉換班機的地方會是邁阿密，歐洲人也經常前往邁阿密經商與度假。邁阿密是一個中心點，比較不足的是缺乏與亞洲的聯繫，如果能將邁阿密與亞洲聯繫在一起，我認為那將會是一個令人雀躍的地方。
為博奕事業增添休閑概念
華：你對經營賭場的概念，如何與一般人認為的抽雪茄、飲酒的賭場區分？
林：在西方世界，他們將博奕視為賭博，在亞洲，博奕的發展，不單單只是賭博，也許西方市場在開始有關行業時純粹是賭博；可是，在亞洲並非如此，博奕的發展提供不少就業機會，也能讓一家人前來度假、消遣，這並沒有甚麼不妥。
我們從休閒的角度發展博奕，提供人們選擇的空間，他們可以到賭場或度假勝地消遣，而不一定只是吸引賭客，他們可以自己定位。以雲頂集團來說，當我們投資博奕，需要的是額外的元素如家庭休閒，我們認為可以帶給當地社區、甚至是一個國家最大的利益。
華：與博彩背道而馳的家庭消遣概念，如何從雲頂集團衍生而來？
林：在大馬的熱帶氣候，英國人習慣到高原勝地避暑，以遠離熱帶炎熱的氣候。何不讓亞洲人也帶他們的家人一起來度假？這就是雲頂集團當年開始發展高原勝地的推動因素，那時腦海里並沒有閃過單單經營博奕務的念頭。
不過，在時任首相的倡議之下，為加速推動大馬的經濟發展，需要更多的投資、興建更多的大型設備、塑造更多就業機會，進而推動經濟成長，這就是大馬經濟成功的過程。先父林梧桐的成功事蹟，也是許多人認為大馬成功的實例。
數字不是最重要的
華：你是否花相當多的時間在公司每日的運作、或比較多監督式的管理？
林：對我來說，數字不是最主要的，身為集團領導人，我要兼顧的是數字以外的東西，集團的經營理念儘量簡單，我們要顧及的是共同目標，好比一支足球隊，每個人扮演不同的角色，假如每個人是進攻者，這樣就不大好。
我儘量確保大家工作開心，不讓他們認為那是朝九晚五的工作，沒有他們，我也動不了，這是我看待本身角色的重點，如果你問我複雜的管理決策，坦白說，我沒有。
華：一些亞洲國家，包括新加坡，嘗試限制博奕活動在遊客範圍，而不鼓勵自己的人民前往賭場，請問：政府的條規是否妨礙你們業務的發展？
林：我不認同“只供外國人”的策略，這樣等於是單程交通，凡事必須互惠互利，你不希望只來賭博的遊客，而是期待打造一個可讓遊客感到舒適的地方，同時可讓他們瞭解你的國家。
把僱員當成一家人
華：你如何看待僱員對公司的滿意度，有助於企業的成功？
林：對我們的僱員，我們是以大家庭成員來看待他們，我們希望他們感到舒適、開心。譬如，在郵輪上，我們面對工作准證限制的情況不多，那是一個學習交易的平台。我們尊重本身的員工，他們不需要填寫一大堆表格或是蓋上手印，如果受到類似刑事犯的對待，那不是他們準備面對的情況。基於國家保安考量，我的方案是：要當一名負責任、讓工人信服的僱主，如果工人開心，他們也不會做錯事。（星洲日報／財經）
（吉隆坡12日訊）雲頂（GENTING，3182，主板貿服組）擬斥資38億美元（約120億令吉）在美國邁阿密興建全球最大賭場兼休閒勝地，這項計劃舉世矚目，卻也令市場人士擔心，這項計劃可能引來一些爭議，特別是賭場往往與“偏門收入”聯繫在一起，其所造成的社會與經濟影響效應，能否超越博奕收入所產生的經濟效益，確實讓人關注。
雲頂主席兼首席執行員丹斯里林國泰表示，他有信心將亞洲的成功模式轉移到海外其他地方。該公司在新加坡經營47億新元（約115億令吉）的賭場兼度假勝地“聖淘沙名勝世界”，手上也擁有充裕的現金，可以在現金緊張的美國市場派上用場，況且美國政府正探討減少失業率、降低國家財政開銷等方案，為雲頂的擴張計劃減少擋路石。
林國泰認為，賭場結合有益身心的度假勝地，是比較理想的業務組合，不論是從金融或政治的層面來看，這不純粹只是博奕而已。
“如果只是為了賺錢，我們不會為了這個目的扼殺自己的前程。”
雲頂集團在大馬、新加坡及紐約擁有資產，主要圍繞在主題公園及度假勝地，賭場只是另一個吸引遊客的賣點。
林國泰表示，雲頂集團的經營方式也像家庭企業，他宣稱，員工不太常摩擦，部份原因是他們的就業環境不錯、工資也相當有競爭力。
林國泰（簡稱林）日前在新加坡接受《華爾街日報》（簡稱華）專訪，以下是訪談內容摘錄：
華：雲頂集團正把業務擴展至亞洲以外地區，你認為是否能將亞洲的成功模式複制，然後搬到美國的邁阿密市場？
林：當然可以，而且相信會成功。我們指的是邁阿密，不是擁有30個賭場的拉斯維加斯，邁阿密是一個世界級大都會，假如你準備前往南美洲，轉換班機的地方會是邁阿密，歐洲人也經常前往邁阿密經商與度假。邁阿密是一個中心點，比較不足的是缺乏與亞洲的聯繫，如果能將邁阿密與亞洲聯繫在一起，我認為那將會是一個令人雀躍的地方。
為博奕事業增添休閑概念
華：你對經營賭場的概念，如何與一般人認為的抽雪茄、飲酒的賭場區分？
林：在西方世界，他們將博奕視為賭博，在亞洲，博奕的發展，不單單只是賭博，也許西方市場在開始有關行業時純粹是賭博；可是，在亞洲並非如此，博奕的發展提供不少就業機會，也能讓一家人前來度假、消遣，這並沒有甚麼不妥。
我們從休閒的角度發展博奕，提供人們選擇的空間，他們可以到賭場或度假勝地消遣，而不一定只是吸引賭客，他們可以自己定位。以雲頂集團來說，當我們投資博奕，需要的是額外的元素如家庭休閒，我們認為可以帶給當地社區、甚至是一個國家最大的利益。
華：與博彩背道而馳的家庭消遣概念，如何從雲頂集團衍生而來？
林：在大馬的熱帶氣候，英國人習慣到高原勝地避暑，以遠離熱帶炎熱的氣候。何不讓亞洲人也帶他們的家人一起來度假？這就是雲頂集團當年開始發展高原勝地的推動因素，那時腦海里並沒有閃過單單經營博奕務的念頭。
不過，在時任首相的倡議之下，為加速推動大馬的經濟發展，需要更多的投資、興建更多的大型設備、塑造更多就業機會，進而推動經濟成長，這就是大馬經濟成功的過程。先父林梧桐的成功事蹟，也是許多人認為大馬成功的實例。
數字不是最重要的
華：你是否花相當多的時間在公司每日的運作、或比較多監督式的管理？
林：對我來說，數字不是最主要的，身為集團領導人，我要兼顧的是數字以外的東西，集團的經營理念儘量簡單，我們要顧及的是共同目標，好比一支足球隊，每個人扮演不同的角色，假如每個人是進攻者，這樣就不大好。
我儘量確保大家工作開心，不讓他們認為那是朝九晚五的工作，沒有他們，我也動不了，這是我看待本身角色的重點，如果你問我複雜的管理決策，坦白說，我沒有。
華：一些亞洲國家，包括新加坡，嘗試限制博奕活動在遊客範圍，而不鼓勵自己的人民前往賭場，請問：政府的條規是否妨礙你們業務的發展？
林：我不認同“只供外國人”的策略，這樣等於是單程交通，凡事必須互惠互利，你不希望只來賭博的遊客，而是期待打造一個可讓遊客感到舒適的地方，同時可讓他們瞭解你的國家。
把僱員當成一家人
華：你如何看待僱員對公司的滿意度，有助於企業的成功？
林：對我們的僱員，我們是以大家庭成員來看待他們，我們希望他們感到舒適、開心。譬如，在郵輪上，我們面對工作准證限制的情況不多，那是一個學習交易的平台。我們尊重本身的員工，他們不需要填寫一大堆表格或是蓋上手印，如果受到類似刑事犯的對待，那不是他們準備面對的情況。基於國家保安考量，我的方案是：要當一名負責任、讓工人信服的僱主，如果工人開心，他們也不會做錯事。（星洲日報／財經）
Rights issues by REITs a tough sell?
Written by Chua Sue-Ann
Monday, 12 December 2011 11:26
KUALA LUMPUR: It remains to see whether investors will warm up to recent proposals by Malaysian real estate investment trusts (REITs) to embark on rights issues for fundraising.
This comes as Hektar REIT and AmFirst REIT separately proposed rights issues in recent months. The former is doing so to fund new asset acquisition while the latter is seeking to reduce its bank borrowings. CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust (CMT) also recently told The Edge Financial Daily that it is considering a rights issue to raise fresh capital.
Analysts and market observers said it is generally undesirable for REITs to embark on rights issues as investors expect dividends from REITs instead of having to plough in more capital.
“Effectively, they are asking investors to spend more on their stock in these uncertain market conditions,” said a property analyst.
However, judging from the price performance of both Hektar REIT and AmFirst REIT, investors have not reacted negatively to the news. This, surprisingly, is in contrast to investors’ harsh treatment of Singapore-listed REITs that embarked on rights issues.
According to analysts, the reason why Malaysian REITs are now turning to rights issues to raise funds, instead of the usual way of borrowing or unit placement, could be because their gearing is already near the 50% threshold (of total asset value) permitted for a REIT to borrow, or that the capital they seek to raise is larger than what can be achieved with a placement exercise.
In Hektar REIT’s case, its gearing ratio is 43.4%, just below the 50% limit, based on its total debt of RM347 million and total assets of RM799.47 million as at Sept 30. AmFirst’s REIT’s gearing as at Sept 30 was 39.8% based on total borrowings of RM419.6 million and total assets of RM1.053 billion.
On Dec 8, Hektar REIT proposed a renounceable rights issue to raise gross proceeds of about RM98.4 million. Proceeds from the rights issue will be used to partially fund the acquisition of two shopping malls in Kedah for RM181 million cash.
Hektar REIT added that it would also obtain bank borrowings of up to RM87.1 million to purchase the assets. Note that it held cash and cash equivalents of RM21.3 million as at Sept 30.
The REIT has yet to finalise the actual number of rights units and entitlement basis will be determined later based on the final issue price of the rights unit.
Hektar REIT added that it will procure a written irrevocable undertaking from its substantial unitholders to fully subscribe for their entitlements, failing which underwriting arrangements would be made.
AmFirst REIT’s proposed rights issue, set on a three-for-five basis, is expected to raise gross proceeds of about RM218.8 million, based on an illustrative issue price of 85 sen per unit. The proceeds are to be used to pare down borrowings.
CapitalMalls Malaysia Trust, which also manages
The Mines shopping mall, recently said it is also
considering a rights issue to raise fresh capital.
AmFirst said the rights unit issue price is expected to be fixed at a discount of no more than 20% to the theoretical ex-rights price of the unit. “The discount on the issue price of the rights unit is intended to reward unitholders for their continuous support of the fund,” AmFirst said.
Thus far, investors have not reacted negatively to the REITs proposal to conduct rights issues. The unit prices of both Hektar REIT and AmFirst REIT are still traded near their peaks.
“It could be because the unit prices are currently near historical highs, and more interestingly, at the current high prices they still offer rather good yields as well [Hektar REIT at 7.6% and AmFirst at 8.6% historical yield], so unitholders are happy,” said a market observer.
Other than that, he explained that there is still strong demand for REITS in times of market volatility, especially among institutional shareholders.
“Pavilion REIT has gained 13.6% since last week’s IPO to RM1, and the yield is now only 5.7%. So, the management of REITs thought maybe a rights issue is a good idea,” he said.
The scenario is different in Singapore.
K-REIT Asia, a unit of the Keppel Land group, saw its unit priced plunge 9.7% to S$0.857 sen on Oct 18 after it announced plans to raise S$976.3 million (RM2.4 billion) through a 17-for-20 rights issue. Most of the funds raised by the REIT will be used to buy a 87.5% stake in Ocean Financial Centre (OFC) from its parent Keppel Land Ltd.
It was reported that investors didn’t like the pricing for the OFC deal, and the fact that it was a related party deal. It wasn’t entirely because K-REIT Asia had proposed to acquire it via rights issue funding.
“At the end of the day, REIT managements have to justify why they have to do a rights issue to ask for more money from the unitholders. While institutional shareholders are okay with a rights issue, it could be a turn-off for minority shareholders,” said a market observer.
Monday, 12 December 2011 11:26
KUALA LUMPUR: It remains to see whether investors will warm up to recent proposals by Malaysian real estate investment trusts (REITs) to embark on rights issues for fundraising.
This comes as Hektar REIT and AmFirst REIT separately proposed rights issues in recent months. The former is doing so to fund new asset acquisition while the latter is seeking to reduce its bank borrowings. CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust (CMT) also recently told The Edge Financial Daily that it is considering a rights issue to raise fresh capital.
Analysts and market observers said it is generally undesirable for REITs to embark on rights issues as investors expect dividends from REITs instead of having to plough in more capital.
“Effectively, they are asking investors to spend more on their stock in these uncertain market conditions,” said a property analyst.
However, judging from the price performance of both Hektar REIT and AmFirst REIT, investors have not reacted negatively to the news. This, surprisingly, is in contrast to investors’ harsh treatment of Singapore-listed REITs that embarked on rights issues.
According to analysts, the reason why Malaysian REITs are now turning to rights issues to raise funds, instead of the usual way of borrowing or unit placement, could be because their gearing is already near the 50% threshold (of total asset value) permitted for a REIT to borrow, or that the capital they seek to raise is larger than what can be achieved with a placement exercise.
In Hektar REIT’s case, its gearing ratio is 43.4%, just below the 50% limit, based on its total debt of RM347 million and total assets of RM799.47 million as at Sept 30. AmFirst’s REIT’s gearing as at Sept 30 was 39.8% based on total borrowings of RM419.6 million and total assets of RM1.053 billion.
On Dec 8, Hektar REIT proposed a renounceable rights issue to raise gross proceeds of about RM98.4 million. Proceeds from the rights issue will be used to partially fund the acquisition of two shopping malls in Kedah for RM181 million cash.
Hektar REIT added that it would also obtain bank borrowings of up to RM87.1 million to purchase the assets. Note that it held cash and cash equivalents of RM21.3 million as at Sept 30.
The REIT has yet to finalise the actual number of rights units and entitlement basis will be determined later based on the final issue price of the rights unit.
Hektar REIT added that it will procure a written irrevocable undertaking from its substantial unitholders to fully subscribe for their entitlements, failing which underwriting arrangements would be made.
AmFirst REIT’s proposed rights issue, set on a three-for-five basis, is expected to raise gross proceeds of about RM218.8 million, based on an illustrative issue price of 85 sen per unit. The proceeds are to be used to pare down borrowings.
CapitalMalls Malaysia Trust, which also manages
The Mines shopping mall, recently said it is also
considering a rights issue to raise fresh capital.
AmFirst said the rights unit issue price is expected to be fixed at a discount of no more than 20% to the theoretical ex-rights price of the unit. “The discount on the issue price of the rights unit is intended to reward unitholders for their continuous support of the fund,” AmFirst said.
Thus far, investors have not reacted negatively to the REITs proposal to conduct rights issues. The unit prices of both Hektar REIT and AmFirst REIT are still traded near their peaks.
“It could be because the unit prices are currently near historical highs, and more interestingly, at the current high prices they still offer rather good yields as well [Hektar REIT at 7.6% and AmFirst at 8.6% historical yield], so unitholders are happy,” said a market observer.
Other than that, he explained that there is still strong demand for REITS in times of market volatility, especially among institutional shareholders.
“Pavilion REIT has gained 13.6% since last week’s IPO to RM1, and the yield is now only 5.7%. So, the management of REITs thought maybe a rights issue is a good idea,” he said.
The scenario is different in Singapore.
K-REIT Asia, a unit of the Keppel Land group, saw its unit priced plunge 9.7% to S$0.857 sen on Oct 18 after it announced plans to raise S$976.3 million (RM2.4 billion) through a 17-for-20 rights issue. Most of the funds raised by the REIT will be used to buy a 87.5% stake in Ocean Financial Centre (OFC) from its parent Keppel Land Ltd.
It was reported that investors didn’t like the pricing for the OFC deal, and the fact that it was a related party deal. It wasn’t entirely because K-REIT Asia had proposed to acquire it via rights issue funding.
“At the end of the day, REIT managements have to justify why they have to do a rights issue to ask for more money from the unitholders. While institutional shareholders are okay with a rights issue, it could be a turn-off for minority shareholders,” said a market observer.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
分享锦集:慎防仙股昙花一现
Dec 2nd, 2011 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集
最近一些仙股，“时来铁似金”，大涨特涨，尤其是丰升工业，在短短的一个月内，暴涨了20多倍。
在欧债阴影下，这一年来，要在股市赚钱，难之又难，而竟有人能在一个月内“赚一、两千巴仙”，这种眼光，这种本领，实在令人瞠目结舌。
于是有人洋洋得意，因为他找到了“将基本派击败”的最有力证据。
“单凭敏锐的技术判断能力”，使广大的股民“苦追十年，也还是被远远抛在后头”。
难怪他对这些“月赚一、两千巴仙”的股市奇才，一赞三叹，佩服到五体投地，并且推波助澜，助长投机之风，而对那些殚精竭虑，平均每年要取得10多巴仙的复利回报，也感到非常吃力的价值投资者，如巴菲特之徒，“嗤之以鼻”，极尽讥讽贬斥之能事。
我承认，我没有“月赚一、两千巴仙”的“眼光”。
在我40年的投资生涯中，在开始的几年，也的确发过“月赚一、两千巴仙”的白日梦，但在接下来的30多年中，已彻底放弃了这种幻想，这个“放弃”是在深思熟虑之后作出的，理由为：
1. 没猜测的本领
大马上市公司近1000家，在过去一、二十年中，似乎只有区区的3几家{如利高控股（REPCO），华大食品（Hwatai，8478，主板消费产品股），艾力斯（Iris，0010，自动报价股） }有在极短时间内被推高（我不想用“炒高“的字眼，因为没有证据）二、三十倍的纪录，我“猜”中那一只股票会被推高的机会为千份之一，我没有这种猜中的 “眼光”和本领。
2. 不买不了解的股
作为坚定不移的价值投资者，我信守不渝的原则为“不了解，我不买”。身为局外人的散户之一，我没有洞悉先机的能耐和机会，所以一向不敢买。
3. 没赚取暴利的胆识
我没有赚取暴利的胆识，如果我侥幸以10仙买到一只价值20仙的仙股，即使涨到20仙时不卖，到了30仙时肯定抛出，抛出后就不再回头。由30仙到 2令吉的这一段丰厚的利润，我永远赚不到，我有自知之明，所以从不后悔卖得太早。对于那些“月赚一、两千巴仙”的人的眼光，赞叹是有的，更多的是祝福，从来没有“酸葡萄”的感觉，从来没有！
4. 只信事实 不信预测
我有“只相信事实，不相信预测，更不相信传言”的习惯，这个“坏”习惯使我失去许多获取如丰外般的暴利的机会，但也使我避过了更多的陷阱，而这正是我在股市40年不倒的最主要原因。
5. 赚20倍利润股民绝无仅有
丰升由10仙暴涨至2令吉以上，涨了20多倍，我没有确实数字佐证，但我相信，除了局内人之外，能赚尽20倍利润的股民，恐怕绝无仅有，相信（只是相信）大部份股民是在丰升涨了数倍以后才胆粗粗的上车，上车后就心惊胆跳在取得两、三倍的利润（只是猜测）以后就跳车而逃，所以，能赚20倍的人恐怕少之又少。
6. 年复利回酬15%
如果在一个30只股票组成的投资（或投机）组合中，丰升只是其中之一，即使取得数倍的利润，对整个组合的业绩贡献，其实并不大。我的投资理念是，宁可30只股票每年都取得15%的复利回酬，不敢期望在10年中才抓到一次赚20倍利润股票机会，何况这样的机会只有千分之一。
7. 陷困公司被救成功巴仙率低
我读了40多年的年报和公司文告，从未中断，我所得到的印象是：陷困公司被救，成功的巴仙率很低，大部份都是重陷泥淖。1998年东南亚货币风暴后，100多家公司陷入PN4，请问被救活而如今有资格被称为“好股”的有多少家？
8. 股票投资是马拉松
如果一名股民，只动用他的一小部份资金，例如五十分之一，购买高风险投机股，即使赚了数倍，甚至10倍，也起不了作用。如果他胆大包天，孤注一掷，后果当然是不成功，便成仁。如果他一击中的，就从此金盘洗手的话，我恭喜他，因为他的确赚到了别人“苦追10年”也无法赚到的盈利，如果他尝到甜头，以为 “月赚一、两千巴仙”是轻而易举的事；继续大胆投机，那么，他最终必然在股市消失。股票投资是马拉松，不是短跑可以成功的。
没有十全十美投资法
我一向不喜欢吃酸溜溜的东西，所以从不知酸葡萄为何物。只有爱吃酸喝醋的人，才会以小人之心，度君子之腹，以为别人也嗜吃酸葡萄，吃酸葡萄，是心胸狭窄的表现，股市机会多得是，又何必失去一个机会就耿耿于怀呢？
身为散户，我们要养成别人赚钱我们高兴的心态，因为于他有利，于我无损啦，又何必眼红他人赚钱？更何况有些钱是我们散户根本赚不到的。
我不知说过多少次，股民如武林中人，武林中人只要有一种武器练到炉火纯青的地步，就可以成为武林高手。
股票投资之道亦如此，每一种方法都有其优点和缺点，十全十美的投资法，根本就不存在。
投资者如果能掌握其中一种，达到精熟的地步，能长期为你赚钱！你已经找到了最适合你的方法，你已经走对了路，不可轻易放弃，更不可见异思迁。
相辅相成时代
现在是各类学说相辅相成的时代，为什么还要分帮立派？中西医结合已成为中国大陆医学的主流，为什么还要有贬中医，尊西医，或是贬西医，尊中医的狭隘思想呢？硬为基本派与图表派划清路线，企图使两派互相排挤，这种挑拨离间的人，其居心之阴险，令人心寒。
据我所知，现在大部份投资机构，都是基本面和图表并用的，只不过有些以基本面为主，图表为辅或是图表为主，基本面为辅而已。纯粹的基本面和图表派已不多，那些对基本面或图表派有偏见，“嗤之以鼻”的投资者很难成大器。
股票研究，资料浩如烟海，我们要有海纳百川，虚怀若谷的胸襟。
不为自己设限
我出版了3本书，也写专栏，与股友分享心得。我有自己的立场，但从来没有贬低别人，抬高自己的念头。当“股票投资正道”面世后，我的出版商告诉我，一个从事股票投资教育的组织，特别购买了一批，分售给学员，我由衷的钦佩他们“海纳百川”的襟怀。
我不认识李永安先生，但当他的著作“稳赚大马股市”出版时，我马上买了一本，不但细读，还将可以借镜的句子划线，以方便温习。如果我持有同行如敌国的想法的话，我已为自己设限，永远在原地踏步，不会有进步，最后损失的不是别人，而是我自己。
我不想淌追逐仙股这一浑水。每个人都有选择投资方式的自由，别人没有干涉的权利，毕竟盈亏都由投资者自己负责，与别人无关。我何人哉？有何资格论是议非？
身为股票研究人，我只想提醒股友：慎防追逐仙股之风，昙花一现。股票交易所采取防范措施，也无非是希望避免股民遭殃！
本周建议研究股项
移动媒体（MMode，0059，创业板）
资料搜寻及应用
① 开电脑，进入www.BURSA MALAYSIA.com
② 点击LISTED COMPANIES
③ 点击Company Announcements-Historical
④ 点击By Company
⑤ 点击m，找出mo-MODE BHD（创业版ACE）
⑥ 找出该公司2007至2011年的每一个季度的每股净利（EPS），你会发现该公司由2007至2010年，盈利平稳上升，由2011年首季开始，盈利有突破性进展。首季每股净利1.97仙，次季2.34仙，第3季2.46仙，3季已赚6.78仙，是上一年全年1.99仙的3.4倍。（见 10/11/2011发表的第3季季报）。
⑦ 根据第3季季报资产负债表，该公司在今年9月30日时持有现金1814万6000令吉，负债320万4000令吉（其中284万1000令吉为长期负债）。资本为1588万4000令吉。
⑧ 正如其中文公司名称所显示的，该公司是移动电话电讯出版商，跟报纸是印刷出版商的业务性质相似，只不过是该公司以电讯电话为载体，而报纸是以纸上印刷为载体而已。
⑨ 该公司目前的股价为39仙，股友不妨假设该公司第4季的盈利与第3季不相上下，而推算该公司本财务年的全年每股净利有多少，然后算出其预期本益比（PER），再跟创业版其他类似公司（如A MEDIA）的预期本益比相比，以估算该公司股票的合理价格。
忠言
股票投资，需亲力亲为，不可假手于人。别人的推荐，可以作为参考，不可全盘照收，因为投资失败，与推荐者无关，推荐者无切肤之痛，故推荐之前往往没有作深入周密的思考。
特别声明
本栏旨在帮助投资者自己做功课，所提股票，只是作为实习的例子，并非推荐购买。笔者可能拥有，也可能没有拥有有关股票。
最近一些仙股，“时来铁似金”，大涨特涨，尤其是丰升工业，在短短的一个月内，暴涨了20多倍。
在欧债阴影下，这一年来，要在股市赚钱，难之又难，而竟有人能在一个月内“赚一、两千巴仙”，这种眼光，这种本领，实在令人瞠目结舌。
于是有人洋洋得意，因为他找到了“将基本派击败”的最有力证据。
“单凭敏锐的技术判断能力”，使广大的股民“苦追十年，也还是被远远抛在后头”。
难怪他对这些“月赚一、两千巴仙”的股市奇才，一赞三叹，佩服到五体投地，并且推波助澜，助长投机之风，而对那些殚精竭虑，平均每年要取得10多巴仙的复利回报，也感到非常吃力的价值投资者，如巴菲特之徒，“嗤之以鼻”，极尽讥讽贬斥之能事。
我承认，我没有“月赚一、两千巴仙”的“眼光”。
在我40年的投资生涯中，在开始的几年，也的确发过“月赚一、两千巴仙”的白日梦，但在接下来的30多年中，已彻底放弃了这种幻想，这个“放弃”是在深思熟虑之后作出的，理由为：
1. 没猜测的本领
大马上市公司近1000家，在过去一、二十年中，似乎只有区区的3几家{如利高控股（REPCO），华大食品（Hwatai，8478，主板消费产品股），艾力斯（Iris，0010，自动报价股） }有在极短时间内被推高（我不想用“炒高“的字眼，因为没有证据）二、三十倍的纪录，我“猜”中那一只股票会被推高的机会为千份之一，我没有这种猜中的 “眼光”和本领。
2. 不买不了解的股
作为坚定不移的价值投资者，我信守不渝的原则为“不了解，我不买”。身为局外人的散户之一，我没有洞悉先机的能耐和机会，所以一向不敢买。
3. 没赚取暴利的胆识
我没有赚取暴利的胆识，如果我侥幸以10仙买到一只价值20仙的仙股，即使涨到20仙时不卖，到了30仙时肯定抛出，抛出后就不再回头。由30仙到 2令吉的这一段丰厚的利润，我永远赚不到，我有自知之明，所以从不后悔卖得太早。对于那些“月赚一、两千巴仙”的人的眼光，赞叹是有的，更多的是祝福，从来没有“酸葡萄”的感觉，从来没有！
4. 只信事实 不信预测
我有“只相信事实，不相信预测，更不相信传言”的习惯，这个“坏”习惯使我失去许多获取如丰外般的暴利的机会，但也使我避过了更多的陷阱，而这正是我在股市40年不倒的最主要原因。
5. 赚20倍利润股民绝无仅有
丰升由10仙暴涨至2令吉以上，涨了20多倍，我没有确实数字佐证，但我相信，除了局内人之外，能赚尽20倍利润的股民，恐怕绝无仅有，相信（只是相信）大部份股民是在丰升涨了数倍以后才胆粗粗的上车，上车后就心惊胆跳在取得两、三倍的利润（只是猜测）以后就跳车而逃，所以，能赚20倍的人恐怕少之又少。
6. 年复利回酬15%
如果在一个30只股票组成的投资（或投机）组合中，丰升只是其中之一，即使取得数倍的利润，对整个组合的业绩贡献，其实并不大。我的投资理念是，宁可30只股票每年都取得15%的复利回酬，不敢期望在10年中才抓到一次赚20倍利润股票机会，何况这样的机会只有千分之一。
7. 陷困公司被救成功巴仙率低
我读了40多年的年报和公司文告，从未中断，我所得到的印象是：陷困公司被救，成功的巴仙率很低，大部份都是重陷泥淖。1998年东南亚货币风暴后，100多家公司陷入PN4，请问被救活而如今有资格被称为“好股”的有多少家？
8. 股票投资是马拉松
如果一名股民，只动用他的一小部份资金，例如五十分之一，购买高风险投机股，即使赚了数倍，甚至10倍，也起不了作用。如果他胆大包天，孤注一掷，后果当然是不成功，便成仁。如果他一击中的，就从此金盘洗手的话，我恭喜他，因为他的确赚到了别人“苦追10年”也无法赚到的盈利，如果他尝到甜头，以为 “月赚一、两千巴仙”是轻而易举的事；继续大胆投机，那么，他最终必然在股市消失。股票投资是马拉松，不是短跑可以成功的。
没有十全十美投资法
我一向不喜欢吃酸溜溜的东西，所以从不知酸葡萄为何物。只有爱吃酸喝醋的人，才会以小人之心，度君子之腹，以为别人也嗜吃酸葡萄，吃酸葡萄，是心胸狭窄的表现，股市机会多得是，又何必失去一个机会就耿耿于怀呢？
身为散户，我们要养成别人赚钱我们高兴的心态，因为于他有利，于我无损啦，又何必眼红他人赚钱？更何况有些钱是我们散户根本赚不到的。
我不知说过多少次，股民如武林中人，武林中人只要有一种武器练到炉火纯青的地步，就可以成为武林高手。
股票投资之道亦如此，每一种方法都有其优点和缺点，十全十美的投资法，根本就不存在。
投资者如果能掌握其中一种，达到精熟的地步，能长期为你赚钱！你已经找到了最适合你的方法，你已经走对了路，不可轻易放弃，更不可见异思迁。
相辅相成时代
现在是各类学说相辅相成的时代，为什么还要分帮立派？中西医结合已成为中国大陆医学的主流，为什么还要有贬中医，尊西医，或是贬西医，尊中医的狭隘思想呢？硬为基本派与图表派划清路线，企图使两派互相排挤，这种挑拨离间的人，其居心之阴险，令人心寒。
据我所知，现在大部份投资机构，都是基本面和图表并用的，只不过有些以基本面为主，图表为辅或是图表为主，基本面为辅而已。纯粹的基本面和图表派已不多，那些对基本面或图表派有偏见，“嗤之以鼻”的投资者很难成大器。
股票研究，资料浩如烟海，我们要有海纳百川，虚怀若谷的胸襟。
不为自己设限
我出版了3本书，也写专栏，与股友分享心得。我有自己的立场，但从来没有贬低别人，抬高自己的念头。当“股票投资正道”面世后，我的出版商告诉我，一个从事股票投资教育的组织，特别购买了一批，分售给学员，我由衷的钦佩他们“海纳百川”的襟怀。
我不认识李永安先生，但当他的著作“稳赚大马股市”出版时，我马上买了一本，不但细读，还将可以借镜的句子划线，以方便温习。如果我持有同行如敌国的想法的话，我已为自己设限，永远在原地踏步，不会有进步，最后损失的不是别人，而是我自己。
我不想淌追逐仙股这一浑水。每个人都有选择投资方式的自由，别人没有干涉的权利，毕竟盈亏都由投资者自己负责，与别人无关。我何人哉？有何资格论是议非？
身为股票研究人，我只想提醒股友：慎防追逐仙股之风，昙花一现。股票交易所采取防范措施，也无非是希望避免股民遭殃！
本周建议研究股项
移动媒体（MMode，0059，创业板）
资料搜寻及应用
① 开电脑，进入www.BURSA MALAYSIA.com
② 点击LISTED COMPANIES
③ 点击Company Announcements-Historical
④ 点击By Company
⑤ 点击m，找出mo-MODE BHD（创业版ACE）
⑥ 找出该公司2007至2011年的每一个季度的每股净利（EPS），你会发现该公司由2007至2010年，盈利平稳上升，由2011年首季开始，盈利有突破性进展。首季每股净利1.97仙，次季2.34仙，第3季2.46仙，3季已赚6.78仙，是上一年全年1.99仙的3.4倍。（见 10/11/2011发表的第3季季报）。
⑦ 根据第3季季报资产负债表，该公司在今年9月30日时持有现金1814万6000令吉，负债320万4000令吉（其中284万1000令吉为长期负债）。资本为1588万4000令吉。
⑧ 正如其中文公司名称所显示的，该公司是移动电话电讯出版商，跟报纸是印刷出版商的业务性质相似，只不过是该公司以电讯电话为载体，而报纸是以纸上印刷为载体而已。
⑨ 该公司目前的股价为39仙，股友不妨假设该公司第4季的盈利与第3季不相上下，而推算该公司本财务年的全年每股净利有多少，然后算出其预期本益比（PER），再跟创业版其他类似公司（如A MEDIA）的预期本益比相比，以估算该公司股票的合理价格。
忠言
股票投资，需亲力亲为，不可假手于人。别人的推荐，可以作为参考，不可全盘照收，因为投资失败，与推荐者无关，推荐者无切肤之痛，故推荐之前往往没有作深入周密的思考。
特别声明
本栏旨在帮助投资者自己做功课，所提股票，只是作为实习的例子，并非推荐购买。笔者可能拥有，也可能没有拥有有关股票。
分享锦集：区别就在现金流
Nov 25th, 2011 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集
老黄和老何有许多共同点：两人都是在大学毕业后，找了一份优差，打拼了十多年，都当上了主管。
经过了十多年的储蓄，两人的银行户口，都有20万令吉的定期存款。
在开始进入中年时，他们都有共同的愿望，希望通过投资使手头的20万令吉，如雪球般越滚越大，使他们有足够的财力，将一对儿女送进外国名牌大学，同时在退休后，有足够的老本，过着优质的晚年生活。
经过了深思熟虑之后，两人选择了自己的道路：老黄决定自己创业；老何却选择留在职场，继续打工，但积极进行股票投资。
老黄租了一间店铺，开了一间礼品店，凡事亲力亲为，只请了三名员工负责打理店面生意和送货。
除了做门市之外，作为一名电脑科大学毕业生，他开启了网上购物的生意模式，密切注意礼品市场的“时尚”，想出新的点子，迎合顾客的需求，因此生意火红，第一年就赚回了20万令吉的投资。
这20万令吉的现金，对老黄来说，非常的重要，要知道他是放弃了一份不错的职业，下海创业，他已经没有了稳定的收入。
生活费有着落
有了这20万令吉，不但生活费有了着落，更重要的是他有足够的资金去扩展业务，假以时日，他的公司有希望申请在创业版上市。
反观选择保持现有职业的老何，希望通过股票投资来增加他的财富，表现又如何？
老何以20万令吉，买进一批股票，适逢股市牛皮靠稳，不起也不落，他的投资，没有什么斩获，但也没有什么损失，经过了一年，他在股价上得个不赚不亏，他所得到的，是股息，由于他的买进价格，属于中等，所以他的周息率（D∕Y）也与整个市场的周息率不相上下，约为3%。他每年收到6600令吉的股息，回酬与定期存款的利息没有两样。
股票 理想投资管道
老黄选择自己创业；老何选择带职投资，两者有什么区别？
最大的区别就是现金流（cash flow）。老黄独自拥有他的公司，所以，所赚到的20万令吉，全部归他所有，他有应用这笔资金的绝对权利。他可以从中抽出部分作为生活费，也可以全部投资在公司，以扩大业务。
总之，他可以自由应用这20万令吉现金。
老何购买股票，就是购买公司的股份，问题是他所占的股份数额，微不足道，根本没资格过问公司的运作。
公司是赚了不少钱，但大股东决定只派发微不足道的股息。
藉投资增财富
老何所收到的股息，只有区区的6600令吉，数目太小，根本不能发挥作用。
他惟有希望股市大起，使他的股票价格大涨，以取得更高的回酬，但那不是他所能控制的，因此他对投资，有一份无可奈何的感觉。
假如我们比较老黄和老何的得失的话，很明显的，自己创业应该是一条更好的道路。
问题是像老黄那样，具备自行创业条件，而又一开始就一帆风顺的创业者，毕竟不多。
在现实生活中，绝大多数的人，都没有老黄那样的勇气，辞掉职业，自行创业。
大部份工薪阶级，只好安分守己，做到退休，他们唯一的希望，是藉投资增加财富，股票仍为较为理想的投资管道。
以攻为守获高回酬
实际上，股票和股市，原本就是为没有能力或不懂得创业的人们而存在的。
没有勇气创业的老何，选择股票投资是正确的道路，不过，他必须采取“以攻为守”而不是“以守为攻”的策略，才有可能取得更为合理的回报。
什么是“以攻为守”？就是为自己创造取得更高回酬的有利条件，那就是：
1. 必须坚守价值投资法，通过股票投资于某种事业，以分享事业成长的成果。
2. 必须勤做功课，研究上市公司，彻底了解所投资企业的实况。
3. 必须长期投资。
4. 必须坚守反向投资策略。
5. 永不投机。
具备这五个条件，他就有可能取得更高的投资回报，跟创业的回酬不遑多让。
老何若能对上述这五个条件，身体力行，到退休时，即使不如老黄那么富有，但要达到财务自主，并非难事。
总而言之，如果具备条件，自行创业是最佳选择，人生，毕竟应给自己以做一番事业的机会，才不枉此生。
如果没有这份勇气，也没有足够的条件，投资股票也不失为可行之道，你要股票投资成功，就必须付出心力，为自己创造取胜的有利条件。
毕竟，天下没有免费的午餐。
本周建议研究股项
鹏尼迪（Plenitude，产业股）
资料解读：
⒈ 怎样以电脑寻找资料
① 开电脑，进入www.bursamalaysia.com；
② 点击Listed Companies；
③ 点击Annual Reports；
④ 点击By Company；
⑤ 点击P；
⑥ 在P字头公司找Plenitude Berhad，点击；
⑦ 下载2006和2011年年报，详读。
⒉ 从2006年年报第24页和2011年年报的第4页财务摘要（Financial Highlights），你可以读到该公司由2002至2011年10年的业绩纪录，你会发现，该公司过去10年，盈利年年上升。
⒊ 你可以在2011年第98页起，找到该公司的地库详情，你会发现该公司的土地大部分是在10年前买下的，现在肯定已比账面价值高数倍。（尽量找出账面每方尺价值，跟市价相比，找出地库被低估程度）。
⒋ 在2011年年报第43页的Statements of Financial Position，你可以在Current Assets项下，发现该公司手头拥有3亿3481万令吉的现金，完全没有负债，每股拥有净现金1令吉24仙。
思考重点：该公司现有地库，应该足够10年的发展，该公司将怎样应用手头的3亿3481万令吉现金去收购更大土地，以充实地库呢？
忠言：培养独立思考的能力，养成反向思考的习惯。如果你的想法跟众人一样，你只能取得与众人相同的利润，如果你要取得超越众人的利润，你必须有与众不同的看法。
特别声明：本栏旨在引导投资者自己做研究，并非推荐买进。投资者应根据研究所得，自行作出是否值得投资的决定，此项决定之盈亏，笔者恕不负责。
老黄和老何有许多共同点：两人都是在大学毕业后，找了一份优差，打拼了十多年，都当上了主管。
经过了十多年的储蓄，两人的银行户口，都有20万令吉的定期存款。
在开始进入中年时，他们都有共同的愿望，希望通过投资使手头的20万令吉，如雪球般越滚越大，使他们有足够的财力，将一对儿女送进外国名牌大学，同时在退休后，有足够的老本，过着优质的晚年生活。
经过了深思熟虑之后，两人选择了自己的道路：老黄决定自己创业；老何却选择留在职场，继续打工，但积极进行股票投资。
老黄租了一间店铺，开了一间礼品店，凡事亲力亲为，只请了三名员工负责打理店面生意和送货。
除了做门市之外，作为一名电脑科大学毕业生，他开启了网上购物的生意模式，密切注意礼品市场的“时尚”，想出新的点子，迎合顾客的需求，因此生意火红，第一年就赚回了20万令吉的投资。
这20万令吉的现金，对老黄来说，非常的重要，要知道他是放弃了一份不错的职业，下海创业，他已经没有了稳定的收入。
生活费有着落
有了这20万令吉，不但生活费有了着落，更重要的是他有足够的资金去扩展业务，假以时日，他的公司有希望申请在创业版上市。
反观选择保持现有职业的老何，希望通过股票投资来增加他的财富，表现又如何？
老何以20万令吉，买进一批股票，适逢股市牛皮靠稳，不起也不落，他的投资，没有什么斩获，但也没有什么损失，经过了一年，他在股价上得个不赚不亏，他所得到的，是股息，由于他的买进价格，属于中等，所以他的周息率（D∕Y）也与整个市场的周息率不相上下，约为3%。他每年收到6600令吉的股息，回酬与定期存款的利息没有两样。
股票 理想投资管道
老黄选择自己创业；老何选择带职投资，两者有什么区别？
最大的区别就是现金流（cash flow）。老黄独自拥有他的公司，所以，所赚到的20万令吉，全部归他所有，他有应用这笔资金的绝对权利。他可以从中抽出部分作为生活费，也可以全部投资在公司，以扩大业务。
总之，他可以自由应用这20万令吉现金。
老何购买股票，就是购买公司的股份，问题是他所占的股份数额，微不足道，根本没资格过问公司的运作。
公司是赚了不少钱，但大股东决定只派发微不足道的股息。
藉投资增财富
老何所收到的股息，只有区区的6600令吉，数目太小，根本不能发挥作用。
他惟有希望股市大起，使他的股票价格大涨，以取得更高的回酬，但那不是他所能控制的，因此他对投资，有一份无可奈何的感觉。
假如我们比较老黄和老何的得失的话，很明显的，自己创业应该是一条更好的道路。
问题是像老黄那样，具备自行创业条件，而又一开始就一帆风顺的创业者，毕竟不多。
在现实生活中，绝大多数的人，都没有老黄那样的勇气，辞掉职业，自行创业。
大部份工薪阶级，只好安分守己，做到退休，他们唯一的希望，是藉投资增加财富，股票仍为较为理想的投资管道。
以攻为守获高回酬
实际上，股票和股市，原本就是为没有能力或不懂得创业的人们而存在的。
没有勇气创业的老何，选择股票投资是正确的道路，不过，他必须采取“以攻为守”而不是“以守为攻”的策略，才有可能取得更为合理的回报。
什么是“以攻为守”？就是为自己创造取得更高回酬的有利条件，那就是：
1. 必须坚守价值投资法，通过股票投资于某种事业，以分享事业成长的成果。
2. 必须勤做功课，研究上市公司，彻底了解所投资企业的实况。
3. 必须长期投资。
4. 必须坚守反向投资策略。
5. 永不投机。
具备这五个条件，他就有可能取得更高的投资回报，跟创业的回酬不遑多让。
老何若能对上述这五个条件，身体力行，到退休时，即使不如老黄那么富有，但要达到财务自主，并非难事。
总而言之，如果具备条件，自行创业是最佳选择，人生，毕竟应给自己以做一番事业的机会，才不枉此生。
如果没有这份勇气，也没有足够的条件，投资股票也不失为可行之道，你要股票投资成功，就必须付出心力，为自己创造取胜的有利条件。
毕竟，天下没有免费的午餐。
本周建议研究股项
鹏尼迪（Plenitude，产业股）
资料解读：
⒈ 怎样以电脑寻找资料
① 开电脑，进入www.bursamalaysia.com；
② 点击Listed Companies；
③ 点击Annual Reports；
④ 点击By Company；
⑤ 点击P；
⑥ 在P字头公司找Plenitude Berhad，点击；
⑦ 下载2006和2011年年报，详读。
⒉ 从2006年年报第24页和2011年年报的第4页财务摘要（Financial Highlights），你可以读到该公司由2002至2011年10年的业绩纪录，你会发现，该公司过去10年，盈利年年上升。
⒊ 你可以在2011年第98页起，找到该公司的地库详情，你会发现该公司的土地大部分是在10年前买下的，现在肯定已比账面价值高数倍。（尽量找出账面每方尺价值，跟市价相比，找出地库被低估程度）。
⒋ 在2011年年报第43页的Statements of Financial Position，你可以在Current Assets项下，发现该公司手头拥有3亿3481万令吉的现金，完全没有负债，每股拥有净现金1令吉24仙。
思考重点：该公司现有地库，应该足够10年的发展，该公司将怎样应用手头的3亿3481万令吉现金去收购更大土地，以充实地库呢？
忠言：培养独立思考的能力，养成反向思考的习惯。如果你的想法跟众人一样，你只能取得与众人相同的利润，如果你要取得超越众人的利润，你必须有与众不同的看法。
特别声明：本栏旨在引导投资者自己做研究，并非推荐买进。投资者应根据研究所得，自行作出是否值得投资的决定，此项决定之盈亏，笔者恕不负责。
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Yeoh expects YTL Comms to turn around
Written by The Edge Financial Daily
Wednesday, 30 November 2011 15:11
KUALA LUMPUR: YTL Power International Bhd expects its subsidiary YTL Communications Sdn Bhd to turn around within two years, managing director Tan Sri Francis Yeoh told shareholders at the company’s annual general meeting here yesterday.
A 60% subsidiary of YTL Power, YTL Communications launched its YES 4G wireless network in November last year.
“He [Yeoh] told shareholders to be patient and think that YTL Communications will turn around to become an aggressive and profitable company within two years,” said a shareholder at the AGM.
For its 1QFY12 ending Sept 30, YTL Power’s mobile broadband network division posted a loss before tax of RM94.94 million. For its FY11 ending June 30, the division posted a loss before tax of RM280.2 million on the back of RM26.6 million in revenue.
YTL Power’s net profit for FY11 increased by 11.3% to RM1.346 billion from RM1.209 billion a year ago, on the back of a 9.1% increase in revenue to RM14.663 billion from RM13.443 billion a year ago.
Yeoh said YES now has a subscriber base of over 3,000 and YTL Communications will break even when it has one million subscribers, according to the shareholder.
Yeoh told shareholders that YTL Communications will launch an Android smartphone together with an “easy to understand” price plan in January next year. The Android smartphone will be sold at half the price of an iPhone.
However, shareholders at the AGM were disappointed with YTL Power’s dividends for FY11.
YTL Power paid dividends amounting to 9.39 sen for FY11 compared with 13.13 sen for FY10, a reduction of about 29%.
“Francis [Yeoh] said the company paid less dividends compared to last year because it is preserving cash for a huge credit crunch which he [Yeoh] believes will happen in the coming year or two,” said the shareholder.
The shareholder said Yeoh believes this “huge and wild” financial turbulence will last for a year or two.
“Yeoh said he is preparing YTL Power for good growth after the ‘turbulence’ as there will be better opportunities if a company is in a good cash position,” added the shareholder.
As of end-September, YTL Power had cash reserves of RM8.155 billion against borrowings of RM15.644 billion.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 30, 2011.
Wednesday, 30 November 2011 15:11
KUALA LUMPUR: YTL Power International Bhd expects its subsidiary YTL Communications Sdn Bhd to turn around within two years, managing director Tan Sri Francis Yeoh told shareholders at the company’s annual general meeting here yesterday.
A 60% subsidiary of YTL Power, YTL Communications launched its YES 4G wireless network in November last year.
“He [Yeoh] told shareholders to be patient and think that YTL Communications will turn around to become an aggressive and profitable company within two years,” said a shareholder at the AGM.
For its 1QFY12 ending Sept 30, YTL Power’s mobile broadband network division posted a loss before tax of RM94.94 million. For its FY11 ending June 30, the division posted a loss before tax of RM280.2 million on the back of RM26.6 million in revenue.
YTL Power’s net profit for FY11 increased by 11.3% to RM1.346 billion from RM1.209 billion a year ago, on the back of a 9.1% increase in revenue to RM14.663 billion from RM13.443 billion a year ago.
Yeoh said YES now has a subscriber base of over 3,000 and YTL Communications will break even when it has one million subscribers, according to the shareholder.
Yeoh told shareholders that YTL Communications will launch an Android smartphone together with an “easy to understand” price plan in January next year. The Android smartphone will be sold at half the price of an iPhone.
However, shareholders at the AGM were disappointed with YTL Power’s dividends for FY11.
YTL Power paid dividends amounting to 9.39 sen for FY11 compared with 13.13 sen for FY10, a reduction of about 29%.
“Francis [Yeoh] said the company paid less dividends compared to last year because it is preserving cash for a huge credit crunch which he [Yeoh] believes will happen in the coming year or two,” said the shareholder.
The shareholder said Yeoh believes this “huge and wild” financial turbulence will last for a year or two.
“Yeoh said he is preparing YTL Power for good growth after the ‘turbulence’ as there will be better opportunities if a company is in a good cash position,” added the shareholder.
As of end-September, YTL Power had cash reserves of RM8.155 billion against borrowings of RM15.644 billion.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 30, 2011.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
分享锦集:投资之道 利人利己
Nov 18th, 2011 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集
老李一席“败在心术不正”，有如醍醐灌顶，使老陈如梦初醒，原来他几年来在股市抢进杀出，并非由于消息不灵通，更非行动不够快捷，而是投机行为，本质上就是损人利己，损人利己的事，注定会失败（见上周“败在心术不正”）。
但是，解开了一个谜团，引出了一个更大的谜团：如果在股市抢进杀出不能赚钱，那么，要怎样投资才能在股市赚钱？
他好像走进了一个死胡同，找不到出路，於是趁屠妖节假期，请老李到旧街场咖啡店喝白咖啡，请教他股市赚钱正道。
老李喝了两口白咖啡之后，一本正经地说：“惟有利人利己，才能在股市长赚。”
老陈听得糊涂起来，脱口而出：“什么利人利己，这跟投资有啥关系？”
老李卖了一个关子：“利人利己，就是创造‘三赢’”！
老陈更加莫名其妙，对老李说：“我不知道你讲什么，能说得具体一点吗？”
老李不直接回答他的质问，只慢条斯里地问他：“你同意不同意，买股票就是买公司的股份？”
增加社会福祉
老陈：“同意，这是浅之又浅的道理。”
老李：“买股份就是参股做生意？”
老陈：“对，这个我懂。”
老李：做生意就是生产产品，或是提供某种服务？”
老陈：“当然。”
李李：“供应产品或提供服务，都使人受惠，都有助於提供社会福祉，同意吗？”
老陈沉吟片刻：“能说得具体一点吗？”
老李：“例如你购买种植股，就是参股种油棕，种植公司将棕油卖给人口众多的国家如中国、印度、苏联，使这些国家的广大人民，都能以合理的价格买到食油，提升了他们的生活素质，这样，投资种油棕，是不是有助於增加社会的福祉？”
老陈：“是”。
李李：“你购买种植股，就是将资金投资在种植公司，种植公司生产棕油，增添社会福祉，不就等于是你在增添社会福祉吗？”
老陈：“这个道理我明白，但是这跟投资股票赚钱有什么关系呢？你是不是扯得太远了？”
老李：“种植公司将棕油卖给中国、印度、苏联等国家，取得了可观的利润，公司将利润以股息的方式派给股东，股东是不是赚到钱？”
老陈：“能举个实际的例子吗？”
老李：“例如你购买嘉利丹（KRETAM）的股票，嘉利丹投资油棕业，生产棕油，将棕油卖给中国、印度或苏联人，由于棕油价格挺秀，该公司赚得丰厚的利润，将部份利润分发给股东，你不是有收到15%的免税股息吗？你的投资已取得不错的回酬，这才是投资正道。”
油棕历久不衰
老陈：“这是股息，但是这跟股价有什么关系？”
老李：“由于嘉利丹盈利上升，又派发可观股息，嘉利丹的股票价格由去年的1令吉左右，升至目前的2令吉以上，你赚取了超过100%的利润，你的投资取得了超越大势的回酬，你购买嘉利丹，一方面得到股息，一方面股票又增值，你取得双重的利益，但没有任何人受损，你的赚钱，并非来自别人的损失，这才是投资正道”。
老陈：“你开始说‘惟有利人利己，才能在股市赚钱’，又说什么‘利人利己，就是创造“三赢”’，这又是怎么一回事？”
老李：“种植公司将棕油卖给中国、印度、苏联的消费人，消费人将棕油制成食油或其他产品，从中得益或受惠，他们是赢家，这是一赢。”
老陈：“那么什么是二赢”？
老李：“种植公司从生产棕油，取得了丰厚的利润，他们是赢家，这是二赢”。
老陈：“谁是三赢者？”
老李：“三赢的赢家就是你，作为嘉利丹的股东，你的投资不但分到股息，而且股份的价值也上升了1倍，你是赢家，是为三赢”。
老陈：“现在我明白了，涉及油棕业的三方面：提供资金的投资者，负责生产棕油的企业和棕油的消费者，全部都得益，大家都是赢家，没有人蒙受损失，由于大家都受惠，所以油棕种植业才能历久不衰，对吗？”
老李：“对，这就是投资正道。这个模式，可以应用到所有的行业。”
三赢才能持久经营
老陈：“请再举两个例子。”
老李：“例如银行业，银行收集了公众人士的存款，转借给企业家开工厂，存款人取得定期存款利息，是赢家；银行赚取存款和放贷之利息差额，是二赢家；企业家取得所需的资金，开设工厂，生产产品，从中赚取利润，是三赢家，有此“三赢”，银行业乃能持久经营”。
老陈：“其他企业亦如此？”
老李：“是的，例如屋业发展公司收集投资者的资金，买地建屋出售，买屋人有屋可住，是一赢家；发展商取得利润，是二赢家，投资者分到红利，是三赢家，故屋业能长存。”
老陈：“我明白了，种植业、金融业、工业……等等，都是利人利己的事业，所以能长久经营。”
分开经营管理
“我们作为股票投资者，将资金交给种植公司、银行、工业家，就是委托他们代我们去从事利人利己，大家都受惠，大家都是赢家的事业，作为上市公司的股东，我们其实都是在做事业，只是我们把经营权和管理权，交给董事部去执行，我们没有直接参与经营和管理事业而已。”
“作为股东，我们分到红利（股息）、股份（股票）的价值又不断增值， 这才是投资五道，这才是股票投资正道”。
老李：“是的，作为上市公司股东，我们的回酬，是来自公司的盈利，由于有盈利，股份才会增值，使股东的财富与日俱增，通过这种途径赚钱，没有‘损人’，故能长久投资。”
老陈：“我明白了，如果我们在股市投机赚钱的话，我们是赚另一名股东的钱，我所赚的钱来自他的损失，这是损人利己，不能长做，因为长期投机必然亏蚀，故投机无法累积财富，只有长期投资才能累积财富。”
长久创造价值
老李：“是的，投资能创造价值，故能长久，投机只是股份的转让，并非生产行为，不能创造价值，故不能持久”。
老陈：“什么创造不创造价值？”
老李：“嘉利丹以你的资金，开辟油棕园，生产更多棕油，聘请更多工人，这就是创造价值；你买嘉利丹的股票，嘉利丹不会种更多油棕，更不会多请一个工人，所以没有创造价值。”
老李补充：“创造价值，利人利己，人人都是赢家，故能长久经营，你才可以长期投资，长期投资才能赚钱。”
老陈只请老李喝了一杯白咖啡，就找到了投资正道，猛喊：“值得，值得！”
本周建议研究股项
菲马集团（Kumpulan FIMA）
资料导读：
从www.BURSAMALAYSIA.com下载该公司2007-11 5年年报，细读，做笔记。
细读2011年年报第9-12页，公司结构及主席报告，了解公司业务进展。
特别注意2011年年报第13-14页集团5年财务摘要，可以明显看出该集团净利由2007年的3000万令吉上升至2011年的7100万令吉，而且是年年上升。
每股净利由2007年的11.30仙，上升至2011年的26.99仙，股息也是逐年增加。
下载该集团8月18日公布的本财务年第1季报告，你可以看出该集团首季每股净赚9.26仙，注意将在本月底公布的第2季报告，看看能否保持第1季的业绩。首季报告最引人注目的是在“资产负债表（Balance Sheet）的“流动资产”（current assets）项下，现金及银行存款高达2亿5484万令，几乎等于该公司的实收资本2亿6316万令吉。
菲马集团拥有菲马机构（FIMA CORP）的60.82%股权，请下载及详读菲马机构2011年年报，作进一步的了解。
请根据首季每股净利推算本财务年预期本益比（以目前1令吉65仙的股价为标准）。
特别声明：本栏旨在引导读者自己做功课，并非推荐买进。
忠言：自己研究，自己赚钱，更有成就感。
思考重点：THE EDGE曾报道：菲马集团和菲马机构可能合併，以浮显其价值。有这种可能吗？
老李一席“败在心术不正”，有如醍醐灌顶，使老陈如梦初醒，原来他几年来在股市抢进杀出，并非由于消息不灵通，更非行动不够快捷，而是投机行为，本质上就是损人利己，损人利己的事，注定会失败（见上周“败在心术不正”）。
但是，解开了一个谜团，引出了一个更大的谜团：如果在股市抢进杀出不能赚钱，那么，要怎样投资才能在股市赚钱？
他好像走进了一个死胡同，找不到出路，於是趁屠妖节假期，请老李到旧街场咖啡店喝白咖啡，请教他股市赚钱正道。
老李喝了两口白咖啡之后，一本正经地说：“惟有利人利己，才能在股市长赚。”
老陈听得糊涂起来，脱口而出：“什么利人利己，这跟投资有啥关系？”
老李卖了一个关子：“利人利己，就是创造‘三赢’”！
老陈更加莫名其妙，对老李说：“我不知道你讲什么，能说得具体一点吗？”
老李不直接回答他的质问，只慢条斯里地问他：“你同意不同意，买股票就是买公司的股份？”
增加社会福祉
老陈：“同意，这是浅之又浅的道理。”
老李：“买股份就是参股做生意？”
老陈：“对，这个我懂。”
老李：做生意就是生产产品，或是提供某种服务？”
老陈：“当然。”
李李：“供应产品或提供服务，都使人受惠，都有助於提供社会福祉，同意吗？”
老陈沉吟片刻：“能说得具体一点吗？”
老李：“例如你购买种植股，就是参股种油棕，种植公司将棕油卖给人口众多的国家如中国、印度、苏联，使这些国家的广大人民，都能以合理的价格买到食油，提升了他们的生活素质，这样，投资种油棕，是不是有助於增加社会的福祉？”
老陈：“是”。
李李：“你购买种植股，就是将资金投资在种植公司，种植公司生产棕油，增添社会福祉，不就等于是你在增添社会福祉吗？”
老陈：“这个道理我明白，但是这跟投资股票赚钱有什么关系呢？你是不是扯得太远了？”
老李：“种植公司将棕油卖给中国、印度、苏联等国家，取得了可观的利润，公司将利润以股息的方式派给股东，股东是不是赚到钱？”
老陈：“能举个实际的例子吗？”
老李：“例如你购买嘉利丹（KRETAM）的股票，嘉利丹投资油棕业，生产棕油，将棕油卖给中国、印度或苏联人，由于棕油价格挺秀，该公司赚得丰厚的利润，将部份利润分发给股东，你不是有收到15%的免税股息吗？你的投资已取得不错的回酬，这才是投资正道。”
油棕历久不衰
老陈：“这是股息，但是这跟股价有什么关系？”
老李：“由于嘉利丹盈利上升，又派发可观股息，嘉利丹的股票价格由去年的1令吉左右，升至目前的2令吉以上，你赚取了超过100%的利润，你的投资取得了超越大势的回酬，你购买嘉利丹，一方面得到股息，一方面股票又增值，你取得双重的利益，但没有任何人受损，你的赚钱，并非来自别人的损失，这才是投资正道”。
老陈：“你开始说‘惟有利人利己，才能在股市赚钱’，又说什么‘利人利己，就是创造“三赢”’，这又是怎么一回事？”
老李：“种植公司将棕油卖给中国、印度、苏联的消费人，消费人将棕油制成食油或其他产品，从中得益或受惠，他们是赢家，这是一赢。”
老陈：“那么什么是二赢”？
老李：“种植公司从生产棕油，取得了丰厚的利润，他们是赢家，这是二赢”。
老陈：“谁是三赢者？”
老李：“三赢的赢家就是你，作为嘉利丹的股东，你的投资不但分到股息，而且股份的价值也上升了1倍，你是赢家，是为三赢”。
老陈：“现在我明白了，涉及油棕业的三方面：提供资金的投资者，负责生产棕油的企业和棕油的消费者，全部都得益，大家都是赢家，没有人蒙受损失，由于大家都受惠，所以油棕种植业才能历久不衰，对吗？”
老李：“对，这就是投资正道。这个模式，可以应用到所有的行业。”
三赢才能持久经营
老陈：“请再举两个例子。”
老李：“例如银行业，银行收集了公众人士的存款，转借给企业家开工厂，存款人取得定期存款利息，是赢家；银行赚取存款和放贷之利息差额，是二赢家；企业家取得所需的资金，开设工厂，生产产品，从中赚取利润，是三赢家，有此“三赢”，银行业乃能持久经营”。
老陈：“其他企业亦如此？”
老李：“是的，例如屋业发展公司收集投资者的资金，买地建屋出售，买屋人有屋可住，是一赢家；发展商取得利润，是二赢家，投资者分到红利，是三赢家，故屋业能长存。”
老陈：“我明白了，种植业、金融业、工业……等等，都是利人利己的事业，所以能长久经营。”
分开经营管理
“我们作为股票投资者，将资金交给种植公司、银行、工业家，就是委托他们代我们去从事利人利己，大家都受惠，大家都是赢家的事业，作为上市公司的股东，我们其实都是在做事业，只是我们把经营权和管理权，交给董事部去执行，我们没有直接参与经营和管理事业而已。”
“作为股东，我们分到红利（股息）、股份（股票）的价值又不断增值， 这才是投资五道，这才是股票投资正道”。
老李：“是的，作为上市公司股东，我们的回酬，是来自公司的盈利，由于有盈利，股份才会增值，使股东的财富与日俱增，通过这种途径赚钱，没有‘损人’，故能长久投资。”
老陈：“我明白了，如果我们在股市投机赚钱的话，我们是赚另一名股东的钱，我所赚的钱来自他的损失，这是损人利己，不能长做，因为长期投机必然亏蚀，故投机无法累积财富，只有长期投资才能累积财富。”
长久创造价值
老李：“是的，投资能创造价值，故能长久，投机只是股份的转让，并非生产行为，不能创造价值，故不能持久”。
老陈：“什么创造不创造价值？”
老李：“嘉利丹以你的资金，开辟油棕园，生产更多棕油，聘请更多工人，这就是创造价值；你买嘉利丹的股票，嘉利丹不会种更多油棕，更不会多请一个工人，所以没有创造价值。”
老李补充：“创造价值，利人利己，人人都是赢家，故能长久经营，你才可以长期投资，长期投资才能赚钱。”
老陈只请老李喝了一杯白咖啡，就找到了投资正道，猛喊：“值得，值得！”
本周建议研究股项
菲马集团（Kumpulan FIMA）
资料导读：
从www.BURSAMALAYSIA.com下载该公司2007-11 5年年报，细读，做笔记。
细读2011年年报第9-12页，公司结构及主席报告，了解公司业务进展。
特别注意2011年年报第13-14页集团5年财务摘要，可以明显看出该集团净利由2007年的3000万令吉上升至2011年的7100万令吉，而且是年年上升。
每股净利由2007年的11.30仙，上升至2011年的26.99仙，股息也是逐年增加。
下载该集团8月18日公布的本财务年第1季报告，你可以看出该集团首季每股净赚9.26仙，注意将在本月底公布的第2季报告，看看能否保持第1季的业绩。首季报告最引人注目的是在“资产负债表（Balance Sheet）的“流动资产”（current assets）项下，现金及银行存款高达2亿5484万令，几乎等于该公司的实收资本2亿6316万令吉。
菲马集团拥有菲马机构（FIMA CORP）的60.82%股权，请下载及详读菲马机构2011年年报，作进一步的了解。
请根据首季每股净利推算本财务年预期本益比（以目前1令吉65仙的股价为标准）。
特别声明：本栏旨在引导读者自己做功课，并非推荐买进。
忠言：自己研究，自己赚钱，更有成就感。
思考重点：THE EDGE曾报道：菲马集团和菲马机构可能合併，以浮显其价值。有这种可能吗？
分享锦集：败在心术不正
Nov 11th, 2011 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集
老陈是一名执行人员，工作了十多年，手头有一笔不大不小的储蓄，他认为把钱摆在银行里作定期存款，存足了漫长的365天，每1000令吉才取得区区35令吉的利息。
5万令吉的血汗钱，每年只取得1750令吉的回酬，何时才能累积到足够的教育费，让两个孩子去受大学教育呢？
他听说精於投资的同事老李，靠着敏锐的眼光，投资股票，现在身家已增至6个数字，他认为如果他走这条路，靠着他的聪明睿智，成绩当不在老李之下。
就这样，老陈提出了他的定存，一头栽进股市。
抢进杀出回酬反减
回酬太低，时间太长，是他舍定存入股市的主要原因，因此，他一开始就抱着在股市中搏杀，以求取更高回酬的投机策略，他认为不入虎穴，焉得虎子，为了让孩子有受大学教育的机会，他愿意冒险。
老陈就这样成为股市中另一名活跃的投机者。
但是，现实跟理想，往往背道而驰，经过了几年的抢进杀出，他的身家，不增反减，他百思不得其解，他付出这么多的心力去研究资料，打听消息，何以效果却那么差劲？
他听说老李，在股市中很少买卖，然而成绩斐然，靠着股票投资，不但有能力供一对儿女，在外国名牌大学毕业，如今都在大公司担任高职，老李不久就退休了，对于退休后的生活，一点也不担忧，因为他的投资收入，足以应付退休后的开支。
基本面评估股票
老陈找到了老李，请他吃晚餐，请教他股票投资成功之道。
在老李的要求下，老陈毫不保留的说出他的投机方法，然后问老李到底如何出错？
消息买股股价飚升
老李三杯下肚，沉吟良久，慢条斯里地说：“你无法在股市赚钱，是因为你心术不正。”
老陈一头雾水，他问：“你有无搞错，我怎会心术不正呢？”
老李问他：“你最近是不是以每股6令吉，买进了一批A公司的股票？”
老陈：“是啊。”
老李：“你为什么要买进A股？”
老陈：“因为有消息说此股很快就会起到8令吉，我有机会赚2令吉嘛！”
老李：“那么，你知道不知道A股实际上值得多少钱？”
老陈搔了搔头说：“我倒没想过这问题，不过，此股最低曾跌到2令吉，这两个月来，好消息不绝，股价一直飚升，现在已是6令吉了，不过我听说还会起，所以我在6令吉时买进，因为听说可涨至8令吉，不过，这跟心术不正有什么关系呢？能赚钱就行了，我管它价值多少？”
对股票研究有素的老李说：“不但有关系，而且关系很密切呢。据我所知，从基本面评估，A股最多值得2令吉，别人以6令吉卖给你，实际上已把你骗了，现在你以6令吉买进，希望以8令吉卖给别人，你也是想骗别人。骗来骗去，这种人是不是心术不正？”
老陈抗议：“我可没有这个存心啦，如果别人肯以8令吉跟我买，就好像我肯以6令吉向别人买，都是心甘情愿的，谁也没存心去骗人，怎能说是‘心术不正’呢？”
损人利己不能长久
老李微微点头说：“是啦，把A股卖给你的人，以及你把A股又卖给别人，都没有存心骗人，实际上，你们根本没想过这样做有什么不对，有股市存在数百年来，人人都这样做，从来没有人去想过这样做有什么不妥。
“但是，请你往深一层想：把一件只值得2令吉的东西，以8令吉卖给别人，跟中国旅游区的小商，以100元人民币，将只值10元人民币的假手镯，卖给游客，有什么分别？只不过是你没有存心骗人，而中国小商由始至终都存心骗游客，如此而已。”
“不过，尽管没有存心，实质上还是大同小异，将没有价值的东西，高价卖给别人以谋利！”
老陈说：“既然没有存心骗人，那么，就不算心术不正了吧！何况愿意以8令吉向我买A股的人，他也可能有机会以10令吉卖出，取得2令吉的利润，他也是受惠啦！”
居心不良长期蒙亏
老李：“的确是如此，他也是在没有存心的情况下骗人。现在的问题，不是有没有存心，而是这样做最终必有人受害，那个以10令吉买进的人，当股价崩溃时，A股跌至其真实价值2令吉的水平时，他亏损了8令吉，这可是他的血汗钱呵！”
“所以，把没有价值的股票推高，然后脱售给无知的散户，是损人利己的行为。没有任何损人利己的行为，可以长久存在，参与这种活动的人，必须蒙受亏损，这就是在股市投机，亏蚀者永远多过赚钱者的最根本原因。”
老李见老陈哑口无言，就继续说：“股市的买者与卖者，在进行交易时，其实都没有存心不良，问题是投机活动，有如赌博，本质就是损人利己。”
股票投机 零和游戏
“股市或赌场中，赌徒都是你情我愿，也是愿赌服输，故参与投机或赌博的双方，都没有不公平，问题不是公平不公平，而是整个活动的本质，就是损人利己，有一方赢就必有一方输，使赌业成为罪业 （Sin Industry）, 投机跟赌博相似，是事情的本质，使它成为近乎罪业。”
“股票投机，是零和 （Zero Sum） 游戏，一方之所赢，必然等于另一方之所输，一方的受益，是由另一方的损失成就的。靠损人以达到利己的目的，是不是心术不正？”
老李说：“任何事情、行为、活动、事业的行为，必须建立在互惠互利，利人利己的基础上，才能持久，投机行为之所以不能长做，就好像赌博不能长赌，长赌必输，就是因为这类行为不是建立在互惠互利，利人利己的基础上。”
老李又说：“那么，为什么投机行业或赌业，却永远存在？永远有人前仆后继的参与？这是人性弱点使然，大多数人无法控制自己的弱点，罪业长存，原因在此。”
现在，老陈终於明白，何以他殚精竭虑，在股市抢进杀出，却赚不到钱，而老李行动不多，总是“莺莺美黛子”（闽语），却在股市大赚特赚的原因了。
读者诸君，你到底是老李还是老陈？
想做老陈还是老李？由你自己决定，但你必须对你的决定负责。
本周建议研究股项
马熔锡（MSC）
功课指导：
1.请进入 www.bursamalaysia.com, 下载该公司 2008-10 年的年报，详读。
2.进入 Google, 找出锡价趋势 （London Metal Exchange）。
3.研究锡的用途（日广）。
提示：
1.马熔锡是新加坡上市公司海峡商行的子公司。
2.马熔锡11月4日公布：第3季每股净利41.8仙，本财务年三个季度每股净利108.90仙。（请算出全年预期本益比）。
3.已派中期股息12仙。
投资策略：长期持有。
忠言：向别人讨鱼吃，吃完一条就没有了。自己学习捕鱼，永远有鱼吃。
老陈是一名执行人员，工作了十多年，手头有一笔不大不小的储蓄，他认为把钱摆在银行里作定期存款，存足了漫长的365天，每1000令吉才取得区区35令吉的利息。
5万令吉的血汗钱，每年只取得1750令吉的回酬，何时才能累积到足够的教育费，让两个孩子去受大学教育呢？
他听说精於投资的同事老李，靠着敏锐的眼光，投资股票，现在身家已增至6个数字，他认为如果他走这条路，靠着他的聪明睿智，成绩当不在老李之下。
就这样，老陈提出了他的定存，一头栽进股市。
抢进杀出回酬反减
回酬太低，时间太长，是他舍定存入股市的主要原因，因此，他一开始就抱着在股市中搏杀，以求取更高回酬的投机策略，他认为不入虎穴，焉得虎子，为了让孩子有受大学教育的机会，他愿意冒险。
老陈就这样成为股市中另一名活跃的投机者。
但是，现实跟理想，往往背道而驰，经过了几年的抢进杀出，他的身家，不增反减，他百思不得其解，他付出这么多的心力去研究资料，打听消息，何以效果却那么差劲？
他听说老李，在股市中很少买卖，然而成绩斐然，靠着股票投资，不但有能力供一对儿女，在外国名牌大学毕业，如今都在大公司担任高职，老李不久就退休了，对于退休后的生活，一点也不担忧，因为他的投资收入，足以应付退休后的开支。
基本面评估股票
老陈找到了老李，请他吃晚餐，请教他股票投资成功之道。
在老李的要求下，老陈毫不保留的说出他的投机方法，然后问老李到底如何出错？
消息买股股价飚升
老李三杯下肚，沉吟良久，慢条斯里地说：“你无法在股市赚钱，是因为你心术不正。”
老陈一头雾水，他问：“你有无搞错，我怎会心术不正呢？”
老李问他：“你最近是不是以每股6令吉，买进了一批A公司的股票？”
老陈：“是啊。”
老李：“你为什么要买进A股？”
老陈：“因为有消息说此股很快就会起到8令吉，我有机会赚2令吉嘛！”
老李：“那么，你知道不知道A股实际上值得多少钱？”
老陈搔了搔头说：“我倒没想过这问题，不过，此股最低曾跌到2令吉，这两个月来，好消息不绝，股价一直飚升，现在已是6令吉了，不过我听说还会起，所以我在6令吉时买进，因为听说可涨至8令吉，不过，这跟心术不正有什么关系呢？能赚钱就行了，我管它价值多少？”
对股票研究有素的老李说：“不但有关系，而且关系很密切呢。据我所知，从基本面评估，A股最多值得2令吉，别人以6令吉卖给你，实际上已把你骗了，现在你以6令吉买进，希望以8令吉卖给别人，你也是想骗别人。骗来骗去，这种人是不是心术不正？”
老陈抗议：“我可没有这个存心啦，如果别人肯以8令吉跟我买，就好像我肯以6令吉向别人买，都是心甘情愿的，谁也没存心去骗人，怎能说是‘心术不正’呢？”
损人利己不能长久
老李微微点头说：“是啦，把A股卖给你的人，以及你把A股又卖给别人，都没有存心骗人，实际上，你们根本没想过这样做有什么不对，有股市存在数百年来，人人都这样做，从来没有人去想过这样做有什么不妥。
“但是，请你往深一层想：把一件只值得2令吉的东西，以8令吉卖给别人，跟中国旅游区的小商，以100元人民币，将只值10元人民币的假手镯，卖给游客，有什么分别？只不过是你没有存心骗人，而中国小商由始至终都存心骗游客，如此而已。”
“不过，尽管没有存心，实质上还是大同小异，将没有价值的东西，高价卖给别人以谋利！”
老陈说：“既然没有存心骗人，那么，就不算心术不正了吧！何况愿意以8令吉向我买A股的人，他也可能有机会以10令吉卖出，取得2令吉的利润，他也是受惠啦！”
居心不良长期蒙亏
老李：“的确是如此，他也是在没有存心的情况下骗人。现在的问题，不是有没有存心，而是这样做最终必有人受害，那个以10令吉买进的人，当股价崩溃时，A股跌至其真实价值2令吉的水平时，他亏损了8令吉，这可是他的血汗钱呵！”
“所以，把没有价值的股票推高，然后脱售给无知的散户，是损人利己的行为。没有任何损人利己的行为，可以长久存在，参与这种活动的人，必须蒙受亏损，这就是在股市投机，亏蚀者永远多过赚钱者的最根本原因。”
老李见老陈哑口无言，就继续说：“股市的买者与卖者，在进行交易时，其实都没有存心不良，问题是投机活动，有如赌博，本质就是损人利己。”
股票投机 零和游戏
“股市或赌场中，赌徒都是你情我愿，也是愿赌服输，故参与投机或赌博的双方，都没有不公平，问题不是公平不公平，而是整个活动的本质，就是损人利己，有一方赢就必有一方输，使赌业成为罪业 （Sin Industry）, 投机跟赌博相似，是事情的本质，使它成为近乎罪业。”
“股票投机，是零和 （Zero Sum） 游戏，一方之所赢，必然等于另一方之所输，一方的受益，是由另一方的损失成就的。靠损人以达到利己的目的，是不是心术不正？”
老李说：“任何事情、行为、活动、事业的行为，必须建立在互惠互利，利人利己的基础上，才能持久，投机行为之所以不能长做，就好像赌博不能长赌，长赌必输，就是因为这类行为不是建立在互惠互利，利人利己的基础上。”
老李又说：“那么，为什么投机行业或赌业，却永远存在？永远有人前仆后继的参与？这是人性弱点使然，大多数人无法控制自己的弱点，罪业长存，原因在此。”
现在，老陈终於明白，何以他殚精竭虑，在股市抢进杀出，却赚不到钱，而老李行动不多，总是“莺莺美黛子”（闽语），却在股市大赚特赚的原因了。
读者诸君，你到底是老李还是老陈？
想做老陈还是老李？由你自己决定，但你必须对你的决定负责。
本周建议研究股项
马熔锡（MSC）
功课指导：
1.请进入 www.bursamalaysia.com, 下载该公司 2008-10 年的年报，详读。
2.进入 Google, 找出锡价趋势 （London Metal Exchange）。
3.研究锡的用途（日广）。
提示：
1.马熔锡是新加坡上市公司海峡商行的子公司。
2.马熔锡11月4日公布：第3季每股净利41.8仙，本财务年三个季度每股净利108.90仙。（请算出全年预期本益比）。
3.已派中期股息12仙。
投资策略：长期持有。
忠言：向别人讨鱼吃，吃完一条就没有了。自己学习捕鱼，永远有鱼吃。
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Cheaper latex a positive for glovemakers
Written by Chong Jin Hun
Monday, 21 November 2011 12:37
KUALA LUMPUR: Latex prices, which hit fresh lows in recent days, are seen to be on a downward trend in the coming months in anticipation of lower demand by major industrial users, a positive for natural rubber (NR) glove producers although other concerns linger.
Analysts said rubber prices could be stifled by lower demand due to the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, besides automotive sector supply chain disruption from the floods in Thailand. Normalising demand for rubber gloves in the absence of disease outbreaks is another factor underlying lower consumption of rubber in the coming months.
“There is a downside bias to our forecast for rubber prices,” an analyst with MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd told The Edge Financial Daily.
MIDF’s forecast indicates that latex will trade at an average of RM9 a kg this year before falling to RM8.75 in 2012. An analyst said the current situation would benefit glovemakers with a higher composition of NR gloves than synthetic rubber or nitrile glovemakers. Notable players include Top Glove Corp Bhd whose portfolio comprises 81% natural rubber gloves with the balance 19% being nitrile products.
Supermax Corp Bhd has a ratio of 80:20 for natural and nitrile gloves respectively while Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd has a ratio of 55:45.
Concerns over normalising demand for gloves due to the absence of outbreaks have given rise to fears of a price war among players, which could hurt the profit margins of these companies, the analyst added.
“Buyers of rubber gloves are adopting a wait and see attitude in anticipation of rubber prices going down further,” she said. Latex makes up some 60% of glovemakers’ cost.
The analyst said that while floods in Thailand have caused supply chain disruptions for the automotive sector, the situation there has begun to recover, and this is expected to lend support to rubber prices.
OSK Research Sdn Bhd analyst Jason Yap said he expects rubber prices to decline in the long term as demand is seen to be anaemic. This is due to moves by glovemakers to increase output of nitrile products and normalising demand for gloves.
Yap also said the global automotive sector, which consumes 70% of world rubber output, encountered setbacks against a weak global economic backdrop and floods in Thailand.
Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia are the world’s top producers and exporters of rubber, accounting for 70% of global output. It has been widely anticipated that these top suppliers would embark on measures to stem the decline in natural rubber prices.
Policymakers in Thailand, for example, plan to spend 10 billion baht (RM1 billion) to increase inventory of the commodity. It was reported that a soft loan of some 10 billion baht would be given to the country’s estimated 600 cooperatives to purchase rubber from farmers at 95 baht per kg. The move is expected to drain supply out of the market to support prices of the commodity. Lawmakers there have also encouraged tappers to delay tapping between now and January next year to cut supply.
OSK’s Yap said amid expectations that top rubber producers will stem the decline in rubber prices, glove buyers are anticipated to increase their inventory ahead of the next year’s wintering season, when latex production is lower.
Rubber prices declined to fresh lows in recent days on expectation that the eurozone sovereign debt woes and lower vehicle output by major automotive players in Thailand due to the floods will reduce demand for the commodity.
Over the last six months, Malaysian latex prices have fallen 32% from a high of RM9.51 a kg on May 27 to RM6.43 on Nov 14.
The eurozone debt woes are far from over. Economists expect economic activities there to further weaken after a survey involving purchasing executives indicated that the manufacturing and service industries declined further last month leading to expectations of a contraction in the eurozone’s GDP in 4Q11 and 1Q12.
As the automotive sector consumes 70% of world rubber supply, a perceived weakness in the automotive industry will naturally impact rubber prices.
The floods in Thailand are creating a second major supply disruption in the global automotive sector since the March 11 earthquake and tsunami in Japan. According to news reports, the floods in Thailand have spread across 64 of Thailand’s 77 provinces and affected seven industrial enclaves where Honda Motor Co and auto parts makers have set up factories.
Global automotive players are also feeling the pinch. According to news reports, car factories across the Americas, and Asia, including Malaysia and Indonesia, will see lower vehicle output due to the supply chain disruption.
RHB Research Institute wrote in a note last Friday that it had revised downwards its 2011 total industry volume (TIV) for the Malaysian automotive sector to 604,000 units compared with 616,000 units previously.
This follows guidance from the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) that vehicle sales here would decline this month due to supply disruptions resulting from the floods in Thailand.
Year-to-date till October, Malaysian TIV fell 0.3% to 503,898 units, according to MAA.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 21, 2011.
Monday, 21 November 2011 12:37
KUALA LUMPUR: Latex prices, which hit fresh lows in recent days, are seen to be on a downward trend in the coming months in anticipation of lower demand by major industrial users, a positive for natural rubber (NR) glove producers although other concerns linger.
Analysts said rubber prices could be stifled by lower demand due to the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, besides automotive sector supply chain disruption from the floods in Thailand. Normalising demand for rubber gloves in the absence of disease outbreaks is another factor underlying lower consumption of rubber in the coming months.
“There is a downside bias to our forecast for rubber prices,” an analyst with MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd told The Edge Financial Daily.
MIDF’s forecast indicates that latex will trade at an average of RM9 a kg this year before falling to RM8.75 in 2012. An analyst said the current situation would benefit glovemakers with a higher composition of NR gloves than synthetic rubber or nitrile glovemakers. Notable players include Top Glove Corp Bhd whose portfolio comprises 81% natural rubber gloves with the balance 19% being nitrile products.
Supermax Corp Bhd has a ratio of 80:20 for natural and nitrile gloves respectively while Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd has a ratio of 55:45.
Concerns over normalising demand for gloves due to the absence of outbreaks have given rise to fears of a price war among players, which could hurt the profit margins of these companies, the analyst added.
“Buyers of rubber gloves are adopting a wait and see attitude in anticipation of rubber prices going down further,” she said. Latex makes up some 60% of glovemakers’ cost.
The analyst said that while floods in Thailand have caused supply chain disruptions for the automotive sector, the situation there has begun to recover, and this is expected to lend support to rubber prices.
OSK Research Sdn Bhd analyst Jason Yap said he expects rubber prices to decline in the long term as demand is seen to be anaemic. This is due to moves by glovemakers to increase output of nitrile products and normalising demand for gloves.
Yap also said the global automotive sector, which consumes 70% of world rubber output, encountered setbacks against a weak global economic backdrop and floods in Thailand.
Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia are the world’s top producers and exporters of rubber, accounting for 70% of global output. It has been widely anticipated that these top suppliers would embark on measures to stem the decline in natural rubber prices.
Policymakers in Thailand, for example, plan to spend 10 billion baht (RM1 billion) to increase inventory of the commodity. It was reported that a soft loan of some 10 billion baht would be given to the country’s estimated 600 cooperatives to purchase rubber from farmers at 95 baht per kg. The move is expected to drain supply out of the market to support prices of the commodity. Lawmakers there have also encouraged tappers to delay tapping between now and January next year to cut supply.
OSK’s Yap said amid expectations that top rubber producers will stem the decline in rubber prices, glove buyers are anticipated to increase their inventory ahead of the next year’s wintering season, when latex production is lower.
Rubber prices declined to fresh lows in recent days on expectation that the eurozone sovereign debt woes and lower vehicle output by major automotive players in Thailand due to the floods will reduce demand for the commodity.
Over the last six months, Malaysian latex prices have fallen 32% from a high of RM9.51 a kg on May 27 to RM6.43 on Nov 14.
The eurozone debt woes are far from over. Economists expect economic activities there to further weaken after a survey involving purchasing executives indicated that the manufacturing and service industries declined further last month leading to expectations of a contraction in the eurozone’s GDP in 4Q11 and 1Q12.
As the automotive sector consumes 70% of world rubber supply, a perceived weakness in the automotive industry will naturally impact rubber prices.
The floods in Thailand are creating a second major supply disruption in the global automotive sector since the March 11 earthquake and tsunami in Japan. According to news reports, the floods in Thailand have spread across 64 of Thailand’s 77 provinces and affected seven industrial enclaves where Honda Motor Co and auto parts makers have set up factories.
Global automotive players are also feeling the pinch. According to news reports, car factories across the Americas, and Asia, including Malaysia and Indonesia, will see lower vehicle output due to the supply chain disruption.
RHB Research Institute wrote in a note last Friday that it had revised downwards its 2011 total industry volume (TIV) for the Malaysian automotive sector to 604,000 units compared with 616,000 units previously.
This follows guidance from the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) that vehicle sales here would decline this month due to supply disruptions resulting from the floods in Thailand.
Year-to-date till October, Malaysian TIV fell 0.3% to 503,898 units, according to MAA.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 21, 2011.
IOI Corp’s 1QFY12 affected by high forex loss
Written by Financial Daily
Tuesday, 22 November 2011 10:55
IOI Corp Bhd
(Nov 21, RM4.97)
Downgrade to sell at RM5.05 with target price of RM4.50: IOI Corp recorded a net profit of RM258 million (-52.9% quarter-on-quarter [q-o-q], -48.2% year-on-year [y-o-y]) for 1QFY12. The results were way below expectation due to unrealised foreign exchange losses of RM271.7 million. Excluding this, 1QFY12 net profit was RM530 million (-3.3% q-o-q, +6.4% y-o-y), in line with expectation. Higher fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production has boosted the plantation division’s contribution. However, weakening downstream business and property divisions were a drag on net profit.
IOI’s FFB production grew 8.1% in 1QFY12. However, we expect some contraction in 2QFY12 production growth due to potential heavy rainfall from La Nina by this December and January and the 22- to 24-month impact of the 2009/10 El Nino. If La Nina is extended to April/May 2012, production will be lower than expected. We project a 7% to 9% growth in production for FY12.
IOI continued to suffer from lower sales and margins for its oleochemical and speciality fats products. This was attributable to stiff competition from Indonesian players and weakness in the European markets. IOI recorded a lower margin for its refineries segment, contrary to our expectation that refining margin would improve due to high prices on the back of high biodiesel demand. IOI’s downstream operation is expected to continue to suffer given the uncertainty and economic slowdown in Europe as it has significant exposure to the European market and with the new export tax structure that favours Indonesian downstream players.
Its property division is likely to stay weak due to the slowdown in the property market. Developers are slowing down their launches, anticipating a weak property market in Malaysia. On the other hand, IOI is embarking on a larger joint venture project in Singapore with City Development’s South Beach, located in downtown Singapore. It has an estimated gross development value of S$3.1 billion (RM7.6 billion) and completion is scheduled in 2015. We expect the project to start contributing 5% to 7% to IOI’s pre-tax profit in FY14.
We are maintaining our earnings estimates as the lower performance in 1QFY12 was due mainly to the unrealised forex losses from its US$1.3 billion (RM9.8 billion) loan.
We forecast earnings per share of 31.9 sen, 34 sen and 39 sen for FY12 to FY14.
We downgrade IOI to “sell” as the current price is above our target price after the recent price rally. Our target price is RM4.50, based on sum-of-the-parts, implying 13 times FY13F earnings per share. Investors should lock in profit from the recent share price strength. Its performance is likely to lag its peers’ due to declining FFB yield and past-prime acreage which is also due for replanting soon, and this would affect production and bottom line. — UOBKayHian, Nov 21
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 22, 2011.
Tuesday, 22 November 2011 10:55
IOI Corp Bhd
(Nov 21, RM4.97)
Downgrade to sell at RM5.05 with target price of RM4.50: IOI Corp recorded a net profit of RM258 million (-52.9% quarter-on-quarter [q-o-q], -48.2% year-on-year [y-o-y]) for 1QFY12. The results were way below expectation due to unrealised foreign exchange losses of RM271.7 million. Excluding this, 1QFY12 net profit was RM530 million (-3.3% q-o-q, +6.4% y-o-y), in line with expectation. Higher fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production has boosted the plantation division’s contribution. However, weakening downstream business and property divisions were a drag on net profit.
IOI’s FFB production grew 8.1% in 1QFY12. However, we expect some contraction in 2QFY12 production growth due to potential heavy rainfall from La Nina by this December and January and the 22- to 24-month impact of the 2009/10 El Nino. If La Nina is extended to April/May 2012, production will be lower than expected. We project a 7% to 9% growth in production for FY12.
IOI continued to suffer from lower sales and margins for its oleochemical and speciality fats products. This was attributable to stiff competition from Indonesian players and weakness in the European markets. IOI recorded a lower margin for its refineries segment, contrary to our expectation that refining margin would improve due to high prices on the back of high biodiesel demand. IOI’s downstream operation is expected to continue to suffer given the uncertainty and economic slowdown in Europe as it has significant exposure to the European market and with the new export tax structure that favours Indonesian downstream players.
Its property division is likely to stay weak due to the slowdown in the property market. Developers are slowing down their launches, anticipating a weak property market in Malaysia. On the other hand, IOI is embarking on a larger joint venture project in Singapore with City Development’s South Beach, located in downtown Singapore. It has an estimated gross development value of S$3.1 billion (RM7.6 billion) and completion is scheduled in 2015. We expect the project to start contributing 5% to 7% to IOI’s pre-tax profit in FY14.
We are maintaining our earnings estimates as the lower performance in 1QFY12 was due mainly to the unrealised forex losses from its US$1.3 billion (RM9.8 billion) loan.
We forecast earnings per share of 31.9 sen, 34 sen and 39 sen for FY12 to FY14.
We downgrade IOI to “sell” as the current price is above our target price after the recent price rally. Our target price is RM4.50, based on sum-of-the-parts, implying 13 times FY13F earnings per share. Investors should lock in profit from the recent share price strength. Its performance is likely to lag its peers’ due to declining FFB yield and past-prime acreage which is also due for replanting soon, and this would affect production and bottom line. — UOBKayHian, Nov 21
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 22, 2011.
Masterskill 3QFY11 continues to disappoint
Written by Financial Daily
Tuesday, 22 November 2011 10:53
Masterskill Education Group Bhd
(Nov 21, RM1.16)
Maintain fully valued at RM1.20 with revised target price of 70 sen (from RM1.20): Masterskill’s 3QFY11 net profit plunged 78.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 52.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to RM5.5 million. This brings 9MFY11 net profit to RM39.7 million or 52.5% of our initial full-year estimate, way below expectation. Revenue for 3QFY11shrank to RM61.2 million (-24.1% y-o-y, -7% q-o-q) on the back of weak new student intake (1,800 year-to-date, below the circa 3,000 students that graduated in September 2011). This, coupled with rising overhead costs (attributable to teaching staff, depreciation and other administration costs), dragged down operating margin to 15.9% (3QFY10: 40.7%, 2QFY11: 15.4%).
Masterskill has been struggling to draw in more new students due to: (i) a more competitive health science education landscape; (ii) a shift in industry trend whereby fewer students are pursuing diploma courses in private education institutions; (iii) lower National Higher Education Fund (PTPTN) funding limit; and (iv) higher minimum entry requirement for nursing programmes.
Following the disappointing 3QFY11, we have cut FY11F to FY13F earnings by 38% to 43% as we factor in lower new student intakes of 2,100 (from 4,000) in FY11F and 4,500 (from 5,100) in FY12F (when there could be a higher number of new students for its degree programmes and new courses as Masterskill embarks on fresh initiatives to diversify its income profile).
We have also trimmed our dividend payout assumption to 40% (from 50%), which translates to dividend per share of 4.4 sen (of which 4.2 sen has just been declared) or a prospective 3.7% net yield for FY11F. Masterskill may want to conserve cash for its capital expenditure requirements amid a weak earnings outlook. Maintain “fully valued” with a revised target price of 70 sen (from RM1.20) based on nine times FY12F earnings per share with support from its existing net cash balance of RM121.6 million, or 30 sen per share. — HwangDBS Vickers Research, Nov 21
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 22, 2011.
Tuesday, 22 November 2011 10:53
Masterskill Education Group Bhd
(Nov 21, RM1.16)
Maintain fully valued at RM1.20 with revised target price of 70 sen (from RM1.20): Masterskill’s 3QFY11 net profit plunged 78.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 52.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to RM5.5 million. This brings 9MFY11 net profit to RM39.7 million or 52.5% of our initial full-year estimate, way below expectation. Revenue for 3QFY11shrank to RM61.2 million (-24.1% y-o-y, -7% q-o-q) on the back of weak new student intake (1,800 year-to-date, below the circa 3,000 students that graduated in September 2011). This, coupled with rising overhead costs (attributable to teaching staff, depreciation and other administration costs), dragged down operating margin to 15.9% (3QFY10: 40.7%, 2QFY11: 15.4%).
Masterskill has been struggling to draw in more new students due to: (i) a more competitive health science education landscape; (ii) a shift in industry trend whereby fewer students are pursuing diploma courses in private education institutions; (iii) lower National Higher Education Fund (PTPTN) funding limit; and (iv) higher minimum entry requirement for nursing programmes.
Following the disappointing 3QFY11, we have cut FY11F to FY13F earnings by 38% to 43% as we factor in lower new student intakes of 2,100 (from 4,000) in FY11F and 4,500 (from 5,100) in FY12F (when there could be a higher number of new students for its degree programmes and new courses as Masterskill embarks on fresh initiatives to diversify its income profile).
We have also trimmed our dividend payout assumption to 40% (from 50%), which translates to dividend per share of 4.4 sen (of which 4.2 sen has just been declared) or a prospective 3.7% net yield for FY11F. Masterskill may want to conserve cash for its capital expenditure requirements amid a weak earnings outlook. Maintain “fully valued” with a revised target price of 70 sen (from RM1.20) based on nine times FY12F earnings per share with support from its existing net cash balance of RM121.6 million, or 30 sen per share. — HwangDBS Vickers Research, Nov 21
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 22, 2011.
KNM posts net loss RM116.29m in 3Q
Written by Surin Murugiah of theedgemalaysia.com
Tuesday, 22 November 2011 18:58
KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 22): KNM GROUP BHD [] posted net loss RM116.29 million for third quarter ended Sept 30, 2011 compared to net profit RM56.09 million a year earlier, due mainly to one off provision for foreseeable losses and credit impairments.
The company said on Tuesday that revenue for the quarter rose 6.41% to RM445.18 million from RM418.36 million in 2010.
Loss per share for the quarter was 11.88 sen compared to earnings per share of 5.69 sen a year earlier, while net assets per share was RM1.69.
There was no dividend declared or recommended during quarter under review.
However, KNM said it had adopted a dividend policy of distributing at least 50% of its consolidated net attributable after tax profit (subject to the availability of distributable reserves and compliance of financial covenants) with effect from financial year ending Dec 31, 2012.
For the nine months ended Sept 30, KNM posted net loss RM86.42 million compared to net profit RM110.57 million in 2010, while its revenue grew 19% to RM1.4 billion from RM1.17 billion.
Reviewing its performance, KNM said the higher revenue in this year was due to higher job recognition.
On its prospects, KNM said notwithstanding its strong order book, the company expects the business environment for the remaining quarter to remain challenging due to global uncertainties.
“However, the board is optimistic that going forward the prospects for the oil & gas industry remains positive,” it said.
Tuesday, 22 November 2011 18:58
KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 22): KNM GROUP BHD [] posted net loss RM116.29 million for third quarter ended Sept 30, 2011 compared to net profit RM56.09 million a year earlier, due mainly to one off provision for foreseeable losses and credit impairments.
The company said on Tuesday that revenue for the quarter rose 6.41% to RM445.18 million from RM418.36 million in 2010.
Loss per share for the quarter was 11.88 sen compared to earnings per share of 5.69 sen a year earlier, while net assets per share was RM1.69.
There was no dividend declared or recommended during quarter under review.
However, KNM said it had adopted a dividend policy of distributing at least 50% of its consolidated net attributable after tax profit (subject to the availability of distributable reserves and compliance of financial covenants) with effect from financial year ending Dec 31, 2012.
For the nine months ended Sept 30, KNM posted net loss RM86.42 million compared to net profit RM110.57 million in 2010, while its revenue grew 19% to RM1.4 billion from RM1.17 billion.
Reviewing its performance, KNM said the higher revenue in this year was due to higher job recognition.
On its prospects, KNM said notwithstanding its strong order book, the company expects the business environment for the remaining quarter to remain challenging due to global uncertainties.
“However, the board is optimistic that going forward the prospects for the oil & gas industry remains positive,” it said.
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
分享锦集：怎样看待经济危机？
Nov 4th, 2011 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集
在过去几年中，世界发生了多次经济危机，从美国次贷金融海啸，杜拜的债务，到目前尚在演变中的欧洲主权债务危机，每一次的经济危机，都对各国股市，带来极大的冲击，股市崩溃，导致投资者人心惶惶，不知何去何从。
每一次的经济危机，在发生之前，几乎都是没有预兆可寻，大部分投资者，都没有先见之明，因此都无法事先脱售股票，以避免亏损。
绝大多数投资者都是在危机越来越严重时，才在惊慌失措中低价售股，蒙受重大的亏蚀，到危机消逝后，股市回升，他们才发现他们是在最低潮时卖股，那时已后悔莫及了。
每一个经济危机，都是极为错综复杂的，从发生的前因、诱因，事情的演变，到消弥平息，即使写成一本书，也未必能交待清楚。
没触及事件核心
市面上分析次贷风暴的书，中文、英文，少说也有一百几十种，每一种都有不同的说法，即使像我这样长期阅读《经济学人》（The Economist）等期刊的股票研究人，也感到眼花缭乱，更不要说没有时间或没有能力阅读经济资料的投资散户了。
怎能怪他们在面对经济危机时，不知所措呢！
每一次经济危机暴发后，大众传播媒介都会详细报道，甚至极尽渲染的能事。
首先是访问经济学家，听取他们的分析，经济学家多数只对经济的某个面有研究，很少有对所有经济问题有全面及深入的了解。
所以，他们的看法往往是片面及有局限性的，没有触及事件的核心，再加上报章的篇幅有限，只摘要报道，或是选择最吸引读者的一点，加以夸张扩大，以耸人听闻，阅读此类报道，最容易使人对局势真相，形成偏见，这样又怎能在应用到投资上时，作出正确的判断？
预测经济不容易
在大马，我最欣赏丹斯里林西彦和丹斯里沈联涛的文章，这两位在马港经济金融界身居高位，从高空鸟瞰本国及国际经济大局的经济及金融学家，肯将他们的学识经验与大马人分享，弥足珍贵，读者切勿失之交臂。
在新加坡，我特别重视及认同林崇椰教授的看法。
国内经济，大家不要错过我的旧同事杨名万的文章。
一些报章的评论员，往往对经济危机加以评述，精神可嘉，但由于不是内行人，少有真知灼见。
记者常访问社团领袖、商界翘楚对经济危机的看法，实际上他们都不是对经济大事发表意见的适当人选。
预测经济比预测天气更棘手，即使是研究有素的人所发表的看法，危机平息后回头再读，也对他们的大胆言论，摇头叹息。
我个人对经济预测，总是存疑。
当我在《南洋商报》担任经济组主任的时候，每年当国家银行发表常年报告时，我总是亲自率领财经记者前往采访报道，而在发表过程中，最尴尬的事，是国行过去的经济预测，往往与实际情况相差太远，有时错得离谱，经济精英荟萃的国行，尚且无法准确预测经济，何况是我们这些普通人呢！
冷静观察 客观分析
既然经济预测总是失准，则作为股票投资者，我们又根据什么进行投资？怎样才能在经济危机中赚钱？
我的做法是这样的：
以静代动，贴身跟踪经济的发展，冷静观察事态演变，不因局势的恶化而惊慌失措。
我的经验是无论多么严重的危机，都会有止息的一天，从三十年代的经济大萧条到最近的次贷海啸，那一次是不能复原的？此次欧债，又岂能例外？
经济危机无论多么严重，都不可能是世界末日。人类总是有办法解决难题，无论难题多么大，都有解决的办法。
因为人类追求更美好明天的决心，永无停息。
作为投资散户，我们与其对经济后果胡乱猜测，倒不如以不变应万变，冷静观察，客观分析，尽最大的可能找出危机的谷底或接近谷底的时刻，那时将是长期投资者最佳的入市时刻，买进后就不动如山，任由事件怎样变化，都屹立不动，不被经济回升期间的小波浪所迷惑而过早抛售。
抓住良机一生富足
当所有的大众传媒都一致对危机悲观时，当所有人都恐惧时，危机大概就距离谷底不远了。2009年首季我就发现了这种现象，结果证明那正是散户入市的最佳时机。
当经济最糟糕时，就是价值投资者大显身手的时刻。
你要以做事业的心态看股市，你一向都对某个行业有信心，有心要投资于此行业，就是苦于没有机会，经济危机为你提供了以低成本投资于该行业的机会，在一生中，只要你抓住几个这样的机会，你就能一生富足。
例如你想投资种植业，你想买进种植股，但是在次贷海啸之前，种植股股价太高，以当时的种植股股价申算，等于用3万令吉买1英亩油棕园，你认为不合算，所以不要买进。
次贷风暴导致股市大跌，加上棕油价格由每公吨4000令吉，跌到1600令吉，再加上肥料价格大起，这些因素导致种植公司盈利暴跌，股价跌了四分之三，原来4令吉的股票，敢敢跌到1令吉50仙，你以此价格申算，以1令吉50仙买进，等于以每英亩5000令吉买油棕园，而且是已经成熟的上等油棕园。
以市价总值为标准
你对棕油长期前景有信心，股价暴跌使你有机会低价买进油棕园，买进后就不再卖出，同一只股票现在价格已升了一倍。
你可以用同样的方法廉价买到好股。
最好的标准是市价总值（market capitalisation）。假设一家公司的市价总值为1亿令吉，假如你要创办一家这样的公司的话，你要投资3亿令吉，而且还要数年的时间才能做到有关公司的规模，现在无知的股东，竟以1亿令吉将公司卖给你，你为什么不敢买？不要买？
只要你了解股票及公司的价值，抱着长期投资的态度，经济危机不但不是危机，反而是投资的良机。
当经济危机最严重时，只有认识公司及其股票价值的人，才不会被危机吓倒，才有胆色抓住机会，赚取丰厚的报酬。
本周建议研究股项:利直南（DKSH）
请从www.bursamalaysia.com下载该公司过去三年的年报及季报，详加阅读，找出该公司重组后业绩回升轨迹。
提示：特别注意该公司今年首两季的每股净利。该公司业务特征为上半年盈利较低，然而今年上半年盈利挺秀。利用过去四季的盈利，推测今年全年盈利，然后算出预期本益比。
思考重点：所有外资握有50%以上股权的公司，如英美烟草、日本烟草、雀巢、安利、DIGI等，都将大部分盈利以股息方式派给股东，瑞士拥有近75%股权的利直南，会不会这样做？
声明：本栏旨在鼓励及引导读者自己动手做功课，并非推荐购买。
在过去几年中，世界发生了多次经济危机，从美国次贷金融海啸，杜拜的债务，到目前尚在演变中的欧洲主权债务危机，每一次的经济危机，都对各国股市，带来极大的冲击，股市崩溃，导致投资者人心惶惶，不知何去何从。
每一次的经济危机，在发生之前，几乎都是没有预兆可寻，大部分投资者，都没有先见之明，因此都无法事先脱售股票，以避免亏损。
绝大多数投资者都是在危机越来越严重时，才在惊慌失措中低价售股，蒙受重大的亏蚀，到危机消逝后，股市回升，他们才发现他们是在最低潮时卖股，那时已后悔莫及了。
每一个经济危机，都是极为错综复杂的，从发生的前因、诱因，事情的演变，到消弥平息，即使写成一本书，也未必能交待清楚。
没触及事件核心
市面上分析次贷风暴的书，中文、英文，少说也有一百几十种，每一种都有不同的说法，即使像我这样长期阅读《经济学人》（The Economist）等期刊的股票研究人，也感到眼花缭乱，更不要说没有时间或没有能力阅读经济资料的投资散户了。
怎能怪他们在面对经济危机时，不知所措呢！
每一次经济危机暴发后，大众传播媒介都会详细报道，甚至极尽渲染的能事。
首先是访问经济学家，听取他们的分析，经济学家多数只对经济的某个面有研究，很少有对所有经济问题有全面及深入的了解。
所以，他们的看法往往是片面及有局限性的，没有触及事件的核心，再加上报章的篇幅有限，只摘要报道，或是选择最吸引读者的一点，加以夸张扩大，以耸人听闻，阅读此类报道，最容易使人对局势真相，形成偏见，这样又怎能在应用到投资上时，作出正确的判断？
预测经济不容易
在大马，我最欣赏丹斯里林西彦和丹斯里沈联涛的文章，这两位在马港经济金融界身居高位，从高空鸟瞰本国及国际经济大局的经济及金融学家，肯将他们的学识经验与大马人分享，弥足珍贵，读者切勿失之交臂。
在新加坡，我特别重视及认同林崇椰教授的看法。
国内经济，大家不要错过我的旧同事杨名万的文章。
一些报章的评论员，往往对经济危机加以评述，精神可嘉，但由于不是内行人，少有真知灼见。
记者常访问社团领袖、商界翘楚对经济危机的看法，实际上他们都不是对经济大事发表意见的适当人选。
预测经济比预测天气更棘手，即使是研究有素的人所发表的看法，危机平息后回头再读，也对他们的大胆言论，摇头叹息。
我个人对经济预测，总是存疑。
当我在《南洋商报》担任经济组主任的时候，每年当国家银行发表常年报告时，我总是亲自率领财经记者前往采访报道，而在发表过程中，最尴尬的事，是国行过去的经济预测，往往与实际情况相差太远，有时错得离谱，经济精英荟萃的国行，尚且无法准确预测经济，何况是我们这些普通人呢！
冷静观察 客观分析
既然经济预测总是失准，则作为股票投资者，我们又根据什么进行投资？怎样才能在经济危机中赚钱？
我的做法是这样的：
以静代动，贴身跟踪经济的发展，冷静观察事态演变，不因局势的恶化而惊慌失措。
我的经验是无论多么严重的危机，都会有止息的一天，从三十年代的经济大萧条到最近的次贷海啸，那一次是不能复原的？此次欧债，又岂能例外？
经济危机无论多么严重，都不可能是世界末日。人类总是有办法解决难题，无论难题多么大，都有解决的办法。
因为人类追求更美好明天的决心，永无停息。
作为投资散户，我们与其对经济后果胡乱猜测，倒不如以不变应万变，冷静观察，客观分析，尽最大的可能找出危机的谷底或接近谷底的时刻，那时将是长期投资者最佳的入市时刻，买进后就不动如山，任由事件怎样变化，都屹立不动，不被经济回升期间的小波浪所迷惑而过早抛售。
抓住良机一生富足
当所有的大众传媒都一致对危机悲观时，当所有人都恐惧时，危机大概就距离谷底不远了。2009年首季我就发现了这种现象，结果证明那正是散户入市的最佳时机。
当经济最糟糕时，就是价值投资者大显身手的时刻。
你要以做事业的心态看股市，你一向都对某个行业有信心，有心要投资于此行业，就是苦于没有机会，经济危机为你提供了以低成本投资于该行业的机会，在一生中，只要你抓住几个这样的机会，你就能一生富足。
例如你想投资种植业，你想买进种植股，但是在次贷海啸之前，种植股股价太高，以当时的种植股股价申算，等于用3万令吉买1英亩油棕园，你认为不合算，所以不要买进。
次贷风暴导致股市大跌，加上棕油价格由每公吨4000令吉，跌到1600令吉，再加上肥料价格大起，这些因素导致种植公司盈利暴跌，股价跌了四分之三，原来4令吉的股票，敢敢跌到1令吉50仙，你以此价格申算，以1令吉50仙买进，等于以每英亩5000令吉买油棕园，而且是已经成熟的上等油棕园。
以市价总值为标准
你对棕油长期前景有信心，股价暴跌使你有机会低价买进油棕园，买进后就不再卖出，同一只股票现在价格已升了一倍。
你可以用同样的方法廉价买到好股。
最好的标准是市价总值（market capitalisation）。假设一家公司的市价总值为1亿令吉，假如你要创办一家这样的公司的话，你要投资3亿令吉，而且还要数年的时间才能做到有关公司的规模，现在无知的股东，竟以1亿令吉将公司卖给你，你为什么不敢买？不要买？
只要你了解股票及公司的价值，抱着长期投资的态度，经济危机不但不是危机，反而是投资的良机。
当经济危机最严重时，只有认识公司及其股票价值的人，才不会被危机吓倒，才有胆色抓住机会，赚取丰厚的报酬。
本周建议研究股项:利直南（DKSH）
请从www.bursamalaysia.com下载该公司过去三年的年报及季报，详加阅读，找出该公司重组后业绩回升轨迹。
提示：特别注意该公司今年首两季的每股净利。该公司业务特征为上半年盈利较低，然而今年上半年盈利挺秀。利用过去四季的盈利，推测今年全年盈利，然后算出预期本益比。
思考重点：所有外资握有50%以上股权的公司，如英美烟草、日本烟草、雀巢、安利、DIGI等，都将大部分盈利以股息方式派给股东，瑞士拥有近75%股权的利直南，会不会这样做？
声明：本栏旨在鼓励及引导读者自己动手做功课，并非推荐购买。
Genting fights Disney, South Beach
Genting Bhd’s plan for a US$3.8 billion casino-and-hotel complex along Miami’s Biscayne Bay has turned into a fight over gambling and jobs pitting the Malaysian developer against Walt Disney Co, local hoteliers, restaurant owners and betting parlors.
Florida lawmakers will take up bills in January to allow three casino licences in Miami-Dade County and Broward County to the north for companies investing at least US$2 billion. Ellyn Bogdanoff, the Fort Lauderdale Republican sponsor of the Senate measure, said it has only a 50 percent chance of passing. Governor Rick Scott, also a Republican, said he’ll consider any measure that’s “fair” and “locally decided.”
Genting, whose 10,000-room Casino de Genting in Malaysia is the world’s largest by number of accommodations, began buying about US$500 million of Miami properties even before the bills were filed. The first was the 14-acre bayfront site of the Miami Herald newspaper for US$236 million in May. Las Vegas Sands Corp and MGM Resorts International said they’re also looking.
So-called destination resorts, such as the 5,200-room complex Genting proposes, may bring Florida as many as 100,000 jobs, said Jessica Hoppe, the company’s general counsel. That may help Scott fulfill a campaign promise to create 700,000 positions over seven years in a state where the unemployment rate was 10.6 percent in September, 1.5 percentage points higher than the national average at the time.
Three Rejections
Florida voters rejected casino permits three times since 1978 in statewide referendums. Now, two factors may favor them: a decision by the First District Court of Appeal on Oct. 6 that may dispense with a state ballot and a Florida economy that’s seen tax revenue decline almost 15 percent since fiscal 2006.
Diverting gamblers from the Caribbean, Las Vegas and Atlantic City, New Jersey, would boost the US$63 billion tourist industry, proponents say. Florida is trying to recover from the fourth-steepest decline in economic health of any state over the past five years, according to Bloomberg Economic Evaluation of States Index data.
“What you’re talking about is capturing a market of high- end Venezuelans, South Americans, Latin Americans, Western Europeans that love coming to Miami,” Representative Erik Fresen, a Miami Republican who sponsored the House casino bill, said in an interview in Tallahassee, the capital.
Florida isn’t the only state considering casinos as they try to close fiscal 2013 deficits. The projected gaps are an estimated US$46 billion, according to a June 17 estimate by the Washington-based Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, which advocates for low-income families.
States at Work
Massachusetts lawmakers are working on bills that would allow three resort-style casinos. Illinois Governor Pat Quinn supports elements of a bill for five casinos in his state. In New York City, Genting’s casino at the Aqueduct racetrack in Queens, which opened Oct. 28, estimates it will contribute US$350 million a year to the state for education.
Florida already allows gambling at seven casinos run by the Seminole Tribe and one by the Miccosukee Tribe of American Indians. It also permits poker at horse and greyhound tracks, jai-alai frontons and other sites. Slot machines are offered at five places in Miami-Dade and Broward.
Competition from operators such as Genting will cost Florida millions in lost revenue from the tribe, say the Seminoles, whose headquarters is in Hollywood, north of Miami. -- Bloomberg
Read more: Genting fights Disney, South Beach http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20111109092501/Article/index_html#ixzz1dCfH2mof
Florida lawmakers will take up bills in January to allow three casino licences in Miami-Dade County and Broward County to the north for companies investing at least US$2 billion. Ellyn Bogdanoff, the Fort Lauderdale Republican sponsor of the Senate measure, said it has only a 50 percent chance of passing. Governor Rick Scott, also a Republican, said he’ll consider any measure that’s “fair” and “locally decided.”
Genting, whose 10,000-room Casino de Genting in Malaysia is the world’s largest by number of accommodations, began buying about US$500 million of Miami properties even before the bills were filed. The first was the 14-acre bayfront site of the Miami Herald newspaper for US$236 million in May. Las Vegas Sands Corp and MGM Resorts International said they’re also looking.
So-called destination resorts, such as the 5,200-room complex Genting proposes, may bring Florida as many as 100,000 jobs, said Jessica Hoppe, the company’s general counsel. That may help Scott fulfill a campaign promise to create 700,000 positions over seven years in a state where the unemployment rate was 10.6 percent in September, 1.5 percentage points higher than the national average at the time.
Three Rejections
Florida voters rejected casino permits three times since 1978 in statewide referendums. Now, two factors may favor them: a decision by the First District Court of Appeal on Oct. 6 that may dispense with a state ballot and a Florida economy that’s seen tax revenue decline almost 15 percent since fiscal 2006.
Diverting gamblers from the Caribbean, Las Vegas and Atlantic City, New Jersey, would boost the US$63 billion tourist industry, proponents say. Florida is trying to recover from the fourth-steepest decline in economic health of any state over the past five years, according to Bloomberg Economic Evaluation of States Index data.
“What you’re talking about is capturing a market of high- end Venezuelans, South Americans, Latin Americans, Western Europeans that love coming to Miami,” Representative Erik Fresen, a Miami Republican who sponsored the House casino bill, said in an interview in Tallahassee, the capital.
Florida isn’t the only state considering casinos as they try to close fiscal 2013 deficits. The projected gaps are an estimated US$46 billion, according to a June 17 estimate by the Washington-based Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, which advocates for low-income families.
States at Work
Massachusetts lawmakers are working on bills that would allow three resort-style casinos. Illinois Governor Pat Quinn supports elements of a bill for five casinos in his state. In New York City, Genting’s casino at the Aqueduct racetrack in Queens, which opened Oct. 28, estimates it will contribute US$350 million a year to the state for education.
Florida already allows gambling at seven casinos run by the Seminole Tribe and one by the Miccosukee Tribe of American Indians. It also permits poker at horse and greyhound tracks, jai-alai frontons and other sites. Slot machines are offered at five places in Miami-Dade and Broward.
Competition from operators such as Genting will cost Florida millions in lost revenue from the tribe, say the Seminoles, whose headquarters is in Hollywood, north of Miami. -- Bloomberg
Read more: Genting fights Disney, South Beach http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20111109092501/Article/index_html#ixzz1dCfH2mof
No end to Masterskill’s PTPTN worries
| Written by Joanne Nayagam | |||
| Wednesday, 09 November 2011 10:59 |
KUALA LUMPUR: Masterskill Education Group Bhd may see more woes ahead. The group was dealt another setback when the National Higher Education Fund (PTPTN) proposed to reduce loans for students studying at higher educational institutions.
It was reported over the weekend that PTPTN chairman Datuk Ismail Mohamed Said said the corporation had decided to make the cut as there was a large pool of borrowers and loan defaults. He reportedly said loans will continue to cover education and tuition fees, but not living expenses, and will commence in 2013.
Ismail was later quoted as clarifying that it was a proposal and that the final decision would be made by the government.
Potential cuts in funding or disbursement of PTPTN loans have long been a major worry for Masterskill as about 95% of its students depend on them. These concerns started emerging last year on reports that PTPTN saw a rising number of defaults which could limit future funding for these loans.
The concerns and foreign selling have driven the stock sharply lower since the fourth quarter last year and lately there is renewed buying interest.
Last week, Masterskill’s stock jumped from RM1.29 on Monday and Tuesday to RM1.39 on Wednesday before closing at RM1.36 on Friday on heavy volume.
 |
| Masterskill faces prospects of lower enrolment figures as competition for tertiary students heats up. |
The renewed interest is despite the fact that analysts have raised concerns about the prospects of lower enrolment numbers as competition to attract tertiary students heats up.
OSK Research reported last week that “new enrolments in the supposedly major student intake period from September to mid-October are likely to have fallen to the tune of a few hundreds”.
If the proposal is accepted, then the change in loan policy could possibly mean lower student intakes in the future for Masterskill, CIMB Research said in its report yesterday.
“PTPTN recently reduced the loan eligibility for healthcare-related courses from RM60,000 to RM45,000, which is lower than Masterskill’s RM52,000 average three-year course fees for diploma in nursing,” said the report. “As the RM45,000 does not include coverage for student expenses, it should not have a revenue impact on the group. But the decision to stop loans on expenses, though not immediate, is likely to dampen student enrolment.”
Leveraging on such sentiment, the research house lowered its price-to-earnings ratio (PER) target for the group to 7.6 times from 8.7 times, with a reduced price target of RM1.46 from RM1.71. It maintained a “neutral” recommendation on the stock.
Even though the report did not strike out a possible mild rebound in student numbers in the fourth quarter, the 2HFY11 earnings are unlikely to surpass that of 1HFY11 “due to the continued impact of a higher lecturer and staff cost”.
The 1HFY11 results were already lower than previously. Revenue was at RM139.47 million, 9.5% lower year-on-year (y-o-y), than the RM154.15 million posted last year. Net profit fell 30.42% y-o-y to RM34.17 million from RM49.11 million.
CIMB Research has cut its FY11 to FY13 student numbers forecast for Masterskill by 1% to 5% to between 17,000 and 19,000. It expects student growth to be 6%-7% (compared with 8%-9% previously) for the next three years.
CIMB also said in the report the recent share price rebound is “not sustainable” and expects the upcoming 3QFY11 to be weaker quarter-on-quarter.
Masterskill’s 3Q financial results are expected to be released next week (Nov 18) and investors will be waiting to know the group’s plans on how to tackle the PTPTN issue and student growth uncertainties.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 9, 2011.
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
分享锦集：确立你的投资哲理
Oct 28th, 2011 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集
人们步行于浓密的森林中，船只航行於茫茫的大海上，飞机在黑夜中穿洲越洋，假如没有指南针或方向仪的引导，都会迷失方向，无法达到目的地。
股市其实就好像浓密的森林或茫茫的大海，投资者置身其中，假如没有明确的投资哲理作为指南针或方向仪，也很容易迷失方向，在波谲云海的股海中兜圈子，无法走到“财富”的目的地。
许多投资者，在股市中浸淫了数十年，竟然还是无法致富，最大的原因，就是缺乏明确的投资哲理作为引导。
徒劳无功
没有投资哲理的投资者，在股市中抢进杀出，表面上是很努力，实际上是在兜圈子，最后是徒劳无功，这种投资方式，是在浪费时间。
那么，什么是“投资哲理”？
“投资哲理”又叫“投资理念”（Investment Philosobhy），是一组指导你的投资行动的原则。你根据这些原则，作出你的投资决定。
你的投资作风，就是你的投资哲理的具体反映。
投资哲理是你的信心的根据，所以，必须是明确的、肯定的。
不是模糊的，也不能是模棱两可的。
我本身的投资哲理是这样的（我如此相信）：
1.股票投资成败决定于生意眼光，不是决定于预测股市起落的本领。
2.我相信价值，但价值必需有实实在在的财富作为后盾，才能长久存在。
没有财富作为后盾的价值，有如建在沙丘上的屋子，最后一定倒塌。
3.股市不是快速致富的地方，通常风险与投资时间的长短成正比。
4.只有长期投资才可以累积财富，因为价值需有财富作后盾才能持久，而创造财富需要时间。
5.反向是最好的投资策略。
6.慢而稳胜过快而狠。
7.最好的投资决定来自个人，不是来自集体。
8.这一组投资哲理，指导了我的投资行为，因此我不相信投机可以致富、不相信没有价值的股票可以长期站稳高价、不相信炒股可以发达、不相信有任何人有预测股市动向（尤其是短期的）的本领。
我相信价值投资法，相信脚踏实地是最好的投资方式。
提到股票投资，大家都公推股神巴菲特为“状元”。实际上，有不少投资基金，表现不在巴菲特之下，只是规模没有巴菲特之大，宣传没有巴菲特之多而已。
资本增值
最近在网站上读到，大马有一个阿波罗亚洲基金，在过去13年中，投资增值13倍。（1999年11月3日投资100美金，到2011年8月31日时增值至1346.93美金了。平均每年复利增长27.6%。
这只是资本增值，而且是在扣除了每年1%的管理费及15%的奖励金之后，也不包括每年约3%的股息在内。
这个以大马和香港为操作基地，专门投资于亚洲股市的基金，是由一名英国剑桥大学数学系毕业的女投资家Claire Barnes主持。
她在该基金的“投资哲理”中所阐述的投资哲理，包括：
1. 我们是从私人长期投资者的角度评估股票的商业价值，不大理会股市短期波动。
2. 我们喜欢价值，例如以50仙买价值1元的股票，但决不牺牲素质。
3. 我们也喜欢成长股，但价格必须合理（物有所值）。
4. 我们喜欢股息，对于没有派息政策的公司，存有戒心。
5. 我们尽力澈底了解公司，我们访问公司，细读年报和文告，跟他们的对手交谈，了解他们越久越好。
6. 我们通常投资3至15年，但低价买到好公司，也可能永远不卖。
该基金在13年中取得超过13倍的回酬，跟该基金坚持其投资哲理分不开。
你想在股市投资成功吗？
如果是的话，现在就确立你的投资哲理，并且坚持实践到底。
本周建议研究股项：佳杰科技（ECSICT BHD）
请从www.bursamalaysia.com下载及详读该公司招股说明书，2010年报及季报。
佳杰科技的主席和大股东为百乐门机构（Paramount）主席拿督张昌源。
提示：请细读2010年报第30-31页“集团财务摘要”。
人们步行于浓密的森林中，船只航行於茫茫的大海上，飞机在黑夜中穿洲越洋，假如没有指南针或方向仪的引导，都会迷失方向，无法达到目的地。
股市其实就好像浓密的森林或茫茫的大海，投资者置身其中，假如没有明确的投资哲理作为指南针或方向仪，也很容易迷失方向，在波谲云海的股海中兜圈子，无法走到“财富”的目的地。
许多投资者，在股市中浸淫了数十年，竟然还是无法致富，最大的原因，就是缺乏明确的投资哲理作为引导。
徒劳无功
没有投资哲理的投资者，在股市中抢进杀出，表面上是很努力，实际上是在兜圈子，最后是徒劳无功，这种投资方式，是在浪费时间。
那么，什么是“投资哲理”？
“投资哲理”又叫“投资理念”（Investment Philosobhy），是一组指导你的投资行动的原则。你根据这些原则，作出你的投资决定。
你的投资作风，就是你的投资哲理的具体反映。
投资哲理是你的信心的根据，所以，必须是明确的、肯定的。
不是模糊的，也不能是模棱两可的。
我本身的投资哲理是这样的（我如此相信）：
1.股票投资成败决定于生意眼光，不是决定于预测股市起落的本领。
2.我相信价值，但价值必需有实实在在的财富作为后盾，才能长久存在。
没有财富作为后盾的价值，有如建在沙丘上的屋子，最后一定倒塌。
3.股市不是快速致富的地方，通常风险与投资时间的长短成正比。
4.只有长期投资才可以累积财富，因为价值需有财富作后盾才能持久，而创造财富需要时间。
5.反向是最好的投资策略。
6.慢而稳胜过快而狠。
7.最好的投资决定来自个人，不是来自集体。
8.这一组投资哲理，指导了我的投资行为，因此我不相信投机可以致富、不相信没有价值的股票可以长期站稳高价、不相信炒股可以发达、不相信有任何人有预测股市动向（尤其是短期的）的本领。
我相信价值投资法，相信脚踏实地是最好的投资方式。
提到股票投资，大家都公推股神巴菲特为“状元”。实际上，有不少投资基金，表现不在巴菲特之下，只是规模没有巴菲特之大，宣传没有巴菲特之多而已。
资本增值
最近在网站上读到，大马有一个阿波罗亚洲基金，在过去13年中，投资增值13倍。（1999年11月3日投资100美金，到2011年8月31日时增值至1346.93美金了。平均每年复利增长27.6%。
这只是资本增值，而且是在扣除了每年1%的管理费及15%的奖励金之后，也不包括每年约3%的股息在内。
这个以大马和香港为操作基地，专门投资于亚洲股市的基金，是由一名英国剑桥大学数学系毕业的女投资家Claire Barnes主持。
她在该基金的“投资哲理”中所阐述的投资哲理，包括：
1. 我们是从私人长期投资者的角度评估股票的商业价值，不大理会股市短期波动。
2. 我们喜欢价值，例如以50仙买价值1元的股票，但决不牺牲素质。
3. 我们也喜欢成长股，但价格必须合理（物有所值）。
4. 我们喜欢股息，对于没有派息政策的公司，存有戒心。
5. 我们尽力澈底了解公司，我们访问公司，细读年报和文告，跟他们的对手交谈，了解他们越久越好。
6. 我们通常投资3至15年，但低价买到好公司，也可能永远不卖。
该基金在13年中取得超过13倍的回酬，跟该基金坚持其投资哲理分不开。
你想在股市投资成功吗？
如果是的话，现在就确立你的投资哲理，并且坚持实践到底。
本周建议研究股项：佳杰科技（ECSICT BHD）
请从www.bursamalaysia.com下载及详读该公司招股说明书，2010年报及季报。
佳杰科技的主席和大股东为百乐门机构（Paramount）主席拿督张昌源。
提示：请细读2010年报第30-31页“集团财务摘要”。
Thursday, October 20, 2011
新手買股票，先建立 10個正確態度
- 文章編號 : 1592
- 發表時間 : 2011-10-20 11:20:35
文─黃采薇
2006年6月 Cheers雜誌
1.選定產業，培養熟悉度、敏感度
股海茫茫，從哪裡下手？
投資股票的第1步就應該從券商報告、各類財經新聞中找出後勢看漲的族群，持續觀察，培養敏銳度。
如果投資的是電子業，三不五時到光華商場、fnac去逛逛，了解該產業鏈中哪些產品正當紅。
2.避免在行情處於高檔時忽略風險
當市場行情大好時，一般人常會因為過度樂觀連連加碼。卻忽略了股市上攀時，風險也相對增加。群益證券執行副總裁辛日祺舉例，同樣是7％的漲跌幅，股價從100元跌下來會損失7元，但從50元漲上去只賺了3塊5。
要用低點漲幅彌補高點跌幅，無異截短補長。一片長紅下更要如履薄冰，別讓過熱的氣氛亂了投資準頭。
3.買股票，挑產業中的龍頭股
新手上路，專家會建議先看產業龍頭股。舉例來說，手機族群首推宏達電，面板看友達，LED以億光、晶電為首，鋼鐵類股看中鋼，其他傳產各類股中，台塑是佼佼者。以這些競爭力較強的公司為指標，抓幾檔出來固定投資，較能穩定獲利。
4.不熟悉的股票別碰，切忌頻頻換股
投資股票市場最好只操作自己熟悉的股票，選定幾個時間點來回操作，甚至可以1年進出個1、2次就好，不要常常換股，才能累積對該投資標的的觀察。
5.沒準備20萬，勿輕易入股市
群益投信資產管理部基金經理蔡昀達認為，如果想要涉足股市，最好要有新台幣20萬元以上的資本額。
許多產業龍頭股市值高得嚇人，就算要採取融資的方式投資，還是要有一定資金才有「選股」空間，否則單買幾支雞蛋、水餃股，風險相對集中，也未必能挑到體質健全的股票。
6.財報數字停、看、聽
數字會說話，公司前景如何、能否持續獲利，財務報表一定能透露出端倪。
首先，注意該企業的營收、獲利和EPS（每股盈餘）是否持續成長，這些是企業營運成效反映在股價市值的指標性數字。可以畫張圖，看看這幾項指標在各時間點 上的變動。部份類股（例如電子股）營收會有明顯淡、旺季的差異，所以短時間的震盪不必太在意，抓個3、5年，只要趨勢向上，大抵上該公司體質堪稱穩健。
其次，觀察毛利率。毛利率高的公司在面對上、下游產品鏈通常有較高議價能力，獲利較為強勁。
除此之外，挑選類股時，成交量也是判準依據。元大證券研究中心協理鄭宗祺舉例，在台灣，科技類股的總市值約佔50％左右，但多數時候，交易量卻可以達到8成以上，代表電子股交易熱絡，是市場的當紅炸子雞。
他建議，投資人不妨觀望2～3個月，就可判斷出哪些類股是投資市場的主流。
7.不信明牌，理性為上
「老師在講，你有沒有在聽？」這又麻辣又諷刺的《全民大悶鍋》劇情，也常常在你的投資世界中上演嗎？當心，電視上投顧「老師」的「明牌好康報」，有時候反而是票房毒藥，讓你在投資市場上吃大虧。
其實，看財經新聞應該要著重在增加對投資知識的了解，諸如產業特性，或是國際貨幣、原物料價格走向與股票市場間的因果邏輯。至於到底該買哪支股，參酌各方資訊外，投資人該有自己的判斷。
8.「擦鞋童理論」保你免住套房
報上某支股票扶搖直上的消息，常讓人心癢難耐，急於加碼。元富證券投顧經理江政勳用「擦鞋童理論」的妙喻，提醒這個心理盲點：當市場行情已經熱絡到連擦鞋童都知道時，往往是「利多出盡」的時刻，此時宜減不宜加，千萬別讓你的錢跑在擦鞋童之後，成為市場上最後一隻老鼠。
9.設立明確停損點
買到一支連續3天跌停板的股票，該怎麼反應？
跌10％也許還沉得住氣、跌20％就開始心慌慌，如果聲勢再向下走，許多人往往眼不見為淨，鴕鳥式地悶頭不理，任憑股票就這樣以20％、50％的跌幅持續下墜，直到下市，投資血本無歸。
其實購買股票應該明確訂出停損點，配合波段操作，將損失降到最小。設定下跌10％時售出若干持有比重，下跌20％時再出售一部份股權。如此彈性操作，可以避免在利空大量失血，該股票回漲時，也不會因為早早拋售完畢而憾恨。
10.選擇現金股利高的股票
德盛安聯投信投資管理部副總經理吳宏圖認為，雖然台灣股市從去年到目前為止漲幅有限，但整個亞洲區過去2、3年漲幅不少，投資人還是保守為宜，投資人應該買些現金股利高、本益比相對較低，財務體質佳的股票，追求10％～15％的年報酬率，不要過度貪心。
Monday, October 17, 2011
分享锦集：股市的逆流-私有化
Oct 14th, 2011 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集
将上市公司私有化，是目前股市的热门课题。大股东采取突击行动，全面收购上市公司的股权，要将上市公司变成私人公司，居林的收购辛多拉、国民投资机构要併吞实达，就是典型的例子。
能在股票市场上市，是许多私人公司梦寐以求的事，既然已经上市了，为什么又要“倒行逆施”，将公司私有化？理由何在？
以下是我想到的一些原因，跟大家分享：
投资机会减少
现金充沛的公司，要在当前的环境中，寻找有利可图的投资机会，谈何容易。
大马的经济正处在尴尬的阶段，传统的行业，早已有人满之患，而新的行业，尤其是高科技及服务业，又没有足够的人才去开拓经营，贸贸然进行大量投资，风险特高，这些拥有现金的公司，没有魄力及胆识去作新投资，只好向现有成功企业下手，这是最安全的做法。
保守心态
将上市公司私有化，也反映了我国投资家，没有冒险及开创新领域的精神。
换句话说，这股私有化的逆流，反映了我国企业界的保守及故步自封的心态，这是现有政治经济环境下的产物，也是国家前进的绊脚石。
政府口口声声要私人界成为经济的火车头，然而私人界却没有开拓新领域的勇气。长此以往，在竞争激烈的国际经济环境中，大马迟早会被抛在后头。
不受约束
上市公司，受到许多繁文缛节的约束，作为大股东，他们动辄得咎。他们的一举一动，都受到当局的监管及社会舆论的督促，大股东不但没有自由，而且有时也相当受气。
作为大股东，他们有绑手绑脚的感觉。将公司私有化，可以使他们有发挥的最大空间。
现金流量的释放
作为上市公司，必须遵守许许多多的条例、规定，大股东的一举一动，都要照顾到小股东的利益和感受。
这就使大股东难以做事，一个明显的例子，就是公司现金的调动，受到严格的监管。
假设上市公司的大股东，拥有一家上市公司的控制性股权，同时拥有一家私人公司，当私人公司需要资金周转时，他不能将上市公司的现金调至私人公司使用，将上市公司私有化之后，他可以随意调动上市和私人公司的资金，使他能够抓住新的投资机会。
不需要筹资
公司上市的一个主要目的，是方便筹措资金，作为扩展业务用途。如果上市公司的业务没有扩展的空间，而公司资金又很充足的话，则公司根本就没有必要保持上市地位，私有化是合理的选择。
股票交投不活跃
有些上市公司的股票，长期交投不活跃，导致股东的资金被困，同时股价没有随着股市起落，价值长期被低估，私有化反而为小股东提供一个以合理价格将股票兑现的机会。
股票价值被低估
大马股市，到目前为止，还是由外资及投资基金领航，这些大户的投资对象，是盈利丰厚的大型上市公司，也就是交易量大的优质股。
这类公司不多，造成了优质股价格高不可攀，中小型上市公司股价长期不振的现象。
增股减低风险
现有中小型上市公司的股票，价值长期被低估。
这些公司的大股东，也是公司的掌舵人，他们了解公司股票的价值。
他们认为，与其去找别的投资机会，倒不如增加在现有公司的股权，这样更容易做到，风险也更低。
举个例子，上市产业公司要买地皮，不但难找，而且价格高得离谱，买到后也未必能赚钱。
现有上市公司已拥有宝贵的地皮，而且是在一、二十年前买进的，现在价值恐怕已上涨了10倍、8倍，然而在公司的帐目中，仍以当年买进时的价值入账，如果以现在的价格，将这些地皮重新估值的话，每股的净有形资产价值可能比现有股价高数倍。
既然如此，以市价收购股票，等于以低於市价数倍的价格购买地皮，上市产业的大股东认为与其到处买贵地，倒不如通过私有化，低价购买现成的土地，这样不但更合算，也更省事。
节省时间
要创办一家成功的公司，不但要有资金，还要有人才，更要有机会。有了这些条件，还要经过漫长时间的经营，才有可能上轨道，真是谈何容易。
现有上市公司，有许多是大股东花了许多心血打造成功的，他们了解创业的艰辛。
大股东自己投资
当他们的上市公司股票，价值长期被低估时，他们一方面感到心痛，认为市场不欣赏他们所作的努力，另一方面，他们也认为这是一个廉价增加投资的机会，他们的心态是：小股东既然不要投资于他们的公司，那么，他们大股东就自己来投资吧！
公司上市，原本是要让投资大众，有参与投资成功企业的机会，现在投资大众竟然不想投资。
那么，他们又何必强人之所难呢？倒不如干脆由他们大股东收回股票算了。
大股东别有居心
有些大股东，将上市公司私有化，其实是别有居心。
上市公司除牌5年之后，可以重新申请上市。
大股东将公司私有化之后，将自己私人公司的业务注入上市公司或是全力发展其业务，然后在5年后重估其价值，高价脱售部份股票给公众人士，重新上市，这样可以取得数倍的回酬。他能够这样做，是因为上市价格，是由大股东自订，证券监管当局不予以干涉。
故除牌5年后上市，乃大股东赚钱的锦囊妙计，何乐而不为？
将上市公司私有化，是目前股市的热门课题。大股东采取突击行动，全面收购上市公司的股权，要将上市公司变成私人公司，居林的收购辛多拉、国民投资机构要併吞实达，就是典型的例子。
能在股票市场上市，是许多私人公司梦寐以求的事，既然已经上市了，为什么又要“倒行逆施”，将公司私有化？理由何在？
以下是我想到的一些原因，跟大家分享：
投资机会减少
现金充沛的公司，要在当前的环境中，寻找有利可图的投资机会，谈何容易。
大马的经济正处在尴尬的阶段，传统的行业，早已有人满之患，而新的行业，尤其是高科技及服务业，又没有足够的人才去开拓经营，贸贸然进行大量投资，风险特高，这些拥有现金的公司，没有魄力及胆识去作新投资，只好向现有成功企业下手，这是最安全的做法。
保守心态
将上市公司私有化，也反映了我国投资家，没有冒险及开创新领域的精神。
换句话说，这股私有化的逆流，反映了我国企业界的保守及故步自封的心态，这是现有政治经济环境下的产物，也是国家前进的绊脚石。
政府口口声声要私人界成为经济的火车头，然而私人界却没有开拓新领域的勇气。长此以往，在竞争激烈的国际经济环境中，大马迟早会被抛在后头。
不受约束
上市公司，受到许多繁文缛节的约束，作为大股东，他们动辄得咎。他们的一举一动，都受到当局的监管及社会舆论的督促，大股东不但没有自由，而且有时也相当受气。
作为大股东，他们有绑手绑脚的感觉。将公司私有化，可以使他们有发挥的最大空间。
现金流量的释放
作为上市公司，必须遵守许许多多的条例、规定，大股东的一举一动，都要照顾到小股东的利益和感受。
这就使大股东难以做事，一个明显的例子，就是公司现金的调动，受到严格的监管。
假设上市公司的大股东，拥有一家上市公司的控制性股权，同时拥有一家私人公司，当私人公司需要资金周转时，他不能将上市公司的现金调至私人公司使用，将上市公司私有化之后，他可以随意调动上市和私人公司的资金，使他能够抓住新的投资机会。
不需要筹资
公司上市的一个主要目的，是方便筹措资金，作为扩展业务用途。如果上市公司的业务没有扩展的空间，而公司资金又很充足的话，则公司根本就没有必要保持上市地位，私有化是合理的选择。
股票交投不活跃
有些上市公司的股票，长期交投不活跃，导致股东的资金被困，同时股价没有随着股市起落，价值长期被低估，私有化反而为小股东提供一个以合理价格将股票兑现的机会。
股票价值被低估
大马股市，到目前为止，还是由外资及投资基金领航，这些大户的投资对象，是盈利丰厚的大型上市公司，也就是交易量大的优质股。
这类公司不多，造成了优质股价格高不可攀，中小型上市公司股价长期不振的现象。
增股减低风险
现有中小型上市公司的股票，价值长期被低估。
这些公司的大股东，也是公司的掌舵人，他们了解公司股票的价值。
他们认为，与其去找别的投资机会，倒不如增加在现有公司的股权，这样更容易做到，风险也更低。
举个例子，上市产业公司要买地皮，不但难找，而且价格高得离谱，买到后也未必能赚钱。
现有上市公司已拥有宝贵的地皮，而且是在一、二十年前买进的，现在价值恐怕已上涨了10倍、8倍，然而在公司的帐目中，仍以当年买进时的价值入账，如果以现在的价格，将这些地皮重新估值的话，每股的净有形资产价值可能比现有股价高数倍。
既然如此，以市价收购股票，等于以低於市价数倍的价格购买地皮，上市产业的大股东认为与其到处买贵地，倒不如通过私有化，低价购买现成的土地，这样不但更合算，也更省事。
节省时间
要创办一家成功的公司，不但要有资金，还要有人才，更要有机会。有了这些条件，还要经过漫长时间的经营，才有可能上轨道，真是谈何容易。
现有上市公司，有许多是大股东花了许多心血打造成功的，他们了解创业的艰辛。
大股东自己投资
当他们的上市公司股票，价值长期被低估时，他们一方面感到心痛，认为市场不欣赏他们所作的努力，另一方面，他们也认为这是一个廉价增加投资的机会，他们的心态是：小股东既然不要投资于他们的公司，那么，他们大股东就自己来投资吧！
公司上市，原本是要让投资大众，有参与投资成功企业的机会，现在投资大众竟然不想投资。
那么，他们又何必强人之所难呢？倒不如干脆由他们大股东收回股票算了。
大股东别有居心
有些大股东，将上市公司私有化，其实是别有居心。
上市公司除牌5年之后，可以重新申请上市。
大股东将公司私有化之后，将自己私人公司的业务注入上市公司或是全力发展其业务，然后在5年后重估其价值，高价脱售部份股票给公众人士，重新上市，这样可以取得数倍的回酬。他能够这样做，是因为上市价格，是由大股东自订，证券监管当局不予以干涉。
故除牌5年后上市，乃大股东赚钱的锦囊妙计，何乐而不为？
分享锦集:商人不宜买股票
Oct 7th, 2011 | By 冷眼 | Category: 冷眼分享集
股市是一个拍卖市场，通过投标的方式，买卖公司的股份，交易绝对公开、公平和自由，只要有钱，人人可买，完全没有身分的限制。
勿两头不到岸
但是，股市也好像别的市场一样，不是所有的人都适合参与，商人就是其中之一。
请注意，我只是说“不宜”买，并没说不能买，或不可买。
投资是商业行为，要赚钱，最好选择适合你的市场，所谓“适合”，是指跟你所从事的事业没有冲突。
否则，会导致你两头不到岸，得不偿失。
商人最好不要买股票，理由如下：
理由一：自己经营生意，是主动的行为。而股票投资是被动的行为。
假如你已经拥有自己的公司，无论大小，你都可以自己作主。
你可以根据你的构想，以自己的作风，用自己的经验和知识，去经营你的生意。你的公司要做什么，要怎样做，你说了算数。你可以发挥你的商才，实现你的抱负。
换句话说，你就是你的企业王国的国王，称为“老板”。
作为企业的司机，你要把你的“企业之车”驾向何方，你可以作主，不必理会别人的看法，也不受别人的节制。
你既然已拥有自己的“企业之车”，已是车主，为什么还要自贬身价，降低身分去做“搭客”？
你原本可以掌握自己的命运，为什么还要把命运交给别人去决定？
莫作牛后
升斗小民，因为没有拥有“企业之车”的命，只好把命运交给别人，任由他人摆布，那是无可奈何的事。你身为商人，已是“企业之车”的车主，为什么还要“龙邦”别人的车？
中国人有句话“宁为鸡前，莫作牛后”。“鸡前”就是鸡头；“牛后”就是牛屁股。鸡首吃美食；牛后拉屎尿。为什么你有鸡前不做，却要做牛后？
作为商人，如果你要淌股市这一浑水的话，正确的做法，是专心把生意做大，让你的公司上市，在上市公司拥有控制性股权，这样，你拥有上市公司的股票，利用股市筹资的便利，把生意搞大，利惠股东，这才是有抱负商人应做的事。
理由二：资金是企业的血液，资金短缺，等于贫血，随时可倒毙。
做生意，要资金周转，周转灵活才能赚钱。中国有句营商金言：“货如轮转利路通”。货物滞销，是生意的大忌。
买股票是把资金交给别人去应用，对于需要资金周转的商人，简直是致命伤。
买股票，就是买别人的公司的股份，你当然随时可以在股市把股份卖掉，问题是股市变幻莫测，你根本不知道明天的起落。
当你需要钱周转的时候，刚好逢到股市吃了泻药，就好像目前这样，你不卖没钱周转，卖掉又蒙受严重亏蚀，这时进退两难，你肯定会失眠。
有人以为“快狠凖”是股市赚钱绝招，商人们最好别相信。“快狠准”是破产捷径，比砒霜更毒，千万别尝试。
股票买得太少，根本赚不了几块钱，买得太多，失手时会把你拖垮，这种钱，商人赚不了。
股票是要长期收藏才有可能取得可观回酬的，商人除非持有长期无需动用的闲钱，否则，最好别买股票。
理由三：股票市场是为不懂得做生意及没有条件做生意的人而设的，不是为懂得做生意及有能力做生意的人而设的。
要了解这话，还得从头说起。股票市场发源于欧洲。话说四百多年前，欧洲社会形成两个阵营：
一个阵营是懂得做生意，但是资金不足的人。例如有生意眼光的人想建大船，到南美洲去采购黄金，但不够资金造大船。
另一个阵营，也是人数最多的，是拥有少量积蓄升斗小民，他们没有能力也不懂得做生意，这些“游资”长期投闲置散，无法创富。
于是有人想出一个办法：懂得做生意的商人，将他们的商业计划（例如造船往南美洲买黄金）写成计划书，公诸社会，邀请升斗小民拿出枕头下的金钱，交给他们去做生意，赚到钱后，按出资数额分享利润。
这样，商人有了资金，老百姓有了投资机会，股票制和股市就这样产生了。
从以上的历史事实，可以看出，股票是供不懂得做生意及没有条件做生意的人购买的，不是供商人购买的。
当然，跟着金融市场的成熟，股市的操作更复杂，但向大众筹资的基本概念并没改变。这也是股票交易所规定上市公司最少必须拥有1000名股东，最少有25%股票握在散户手中的原因。
作为老百姓之一，商人当然可以买股票，但那必须是在不影响你的资金周转的情况下，才可以这样做，如果你的生意随时需要资金周转的话，千万不要挪用营业资金去投资股票。
如果你有闲钱买股票的话，就表示生意很赚钱，很成功。既然如此，专心做生意不是更好吗？又何必去参股于你不认识的人的生意？
股市是一个拍卖市场，通过投标的方式，买卖公司的股份，交易绝对公开、公平和自由，只要有钱，人人可买，完全没有身分的限制。
勿两头不到岸
但是，股市也好像别的市场一样，不是所有的人都适合参与，商人就是其中之一。
请注意，我只是说“不宜”买，并没说不能买，或不可买。
投资是商业行为，要赚钱，最好选择适合你的市场，所谓“适合”，是指跟你所从事的事业没有冲突。
否则，会导致你两头不到岸，得不偿失。
商人最好不要买股票，理由如下：
理由一：自己经营生意，是主动的行为。而股票投资是被动的行为。
假如你已经拥有自己的公司，无论大小，你都可以自己作主。
你可以根据你的构想，以自己的作风，用自己的经验和知识，去经营你的生意。你的公司要做什么，要怎样做，你说了算数。你可以发挥你的商才，实现你的抱负。
换句话说，你就是你的企业王国的国王，称为“老板”。
作为企业的司机，你要把你的“企业之车”驾向何方，你可以作主，不必理会别人的看法，也不受别人的节制。
你既然已拥有自己的“企业之车”，已是车主，为什么还要自贬身价，降低身分去做“搭客”？
你原本可以掌握自己的命运，为什么还要把命运交给别人去决定？
莫作牛后
升斗小民，因为没有拥有“企业之车”的命，只好把命运交给别人，任由他人摆布，那是无可奈何的事。你身为商人，已是“企业之车”的车主，为什么还要“龙邦”别人的车？
中国人有句话“宁为鸡前，莫作牛后”。“鸡前”就是鸡头；“牛后”就是牛屁股。鸡首吃美食；牛后拉屎尿。为什么你有鸡前不做，却要做牛后？
作为商人，如果你要淌股市这一浑水的话，正确的做法，是专心把生意做大，让你的公司上市，在上市公司拥有控制性股权，这样，你拥有上市公司的股票，利用股市筹资的便利，把生意搞大，利惠股东，这才是有抱负商人应做的事。
理由二：资金是企业的血液，资金短缺，等于贫血，随时可倒毙。
做生意，要资金周转，周转灵活才能赚钱。中国有句营商金言：“货如轮转利路通”。货物滞销，是生意的大忌。
买股票是把资金交给别人去应用，对于需要资金周转的商人，简直是致命伤。
买股票，就是买别人的公司的股份，你当然随时可以在股市把股份卖掉，问题是股市变幻莫测，你根本不知道明天的起落。
当你需要钱周转的时候，刚好逢到股市吃了泻药，就好像目前这样，你不卖没钱周转，卖掉又蒙受严重亏蚀，这时进退两难，你肯定会失眠。
有人以为“快狠凖”是股市赚钱绝招，商人们最好别相信。“快狠准”是破产捷径，比砒霜更毒，千万别尝试。
股票买得太少，根本赚不了几块钱，买得太多，失手时会把你拖垮，这种钱，商人赚不了。
股票是要长期收藏才有可能取得可观回酬的，商人除非持有长期无需动用的闲钱，否则，最好别买股票。
理由三：股票市场是为不懂得做生意及没有条件做生意的人而设的，不是为懂得做生意及有能力做生意的人而设的。
要了解这话，还得从头说起。股票市场发源于欧洲。话说四百多年前，欧洲社会形成两个阵营：
一个阵营是懂得做生意，但是资金不足的人。例如有生意眼光的人想建大船，到南美洲去采购黄金，但不够资金造大船。
另一个阵营，也是人数最多的，是拥有少量积蓄升斗小民，他们没有能力也不懂得做生意，这些“游资”长期投闲置散，无法创富。
于是有人想出一个办法：懂得做生意的商人，将他们的商业计划（例如造船往南美洲买黄金）写成计划书，公诸社会，邀请升斗小民拿出枕头下的金钱，交给他们去做生意，赚到钱后，按出资数额分享利润。
这样，商人有了资金，老百姓有了投资机会，股票制和股市就这样产生了。
从以上的历史事实，可以看出，股票是供不懂得做生意及没有条件做生意的人购买的，不是供商人购买的。
当然，跟着金融市场的成熟，股市的操作更复杂，但向大众筹资的基本概念并没改变。这也是股票交易所规定上市公司最少必须拥有1000名股东，最少有25%股票握在散户手中的原因。
作为老百姓之一，商人当然可以买股票，但那必须是在不影响你的资金周转的情况下，才可以这样做，如果你的生意随时需要资金周转的话，千万不要挪用营业资金去投资股票。
如果你有闲钱买股票的话，就表示生意很赚钱，很成功。既然如此，专心做生意不是更好吗？又何必去参股于你不认识的人的生意？
CMMT distributable income rises 41% in 3Q
Friday, 14 October 2011 12:17
KUALA LUMPUR: CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust’s (CMMT) distributable income in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2011 (3QFY11), rose 40.6% to RM29.7 million from a year ago on higher property income and gross revenue.
Revenue increased 33.3% to RM57.84 million from RM43.39 million.
CMMT’s distributable income rose on net property income of RM41.1 million (35.6% higher than 3QFY10) and gross revenue of RM57.8 million (33.3% higher than 3QFY10), said CapitaMalls Malaysia REIT Management Sdn Bhd (CMRM), the manager of CMMT, in a press release yesterday.
For 3QFY11, CMMT distribution per unit (DPU) increased by 26.9% to 1.98 sen compared with 1.56 sen a year ago.
Based on CMMT’s closing price of RM1.28 per unit yesterday, its DPU of 1.98 sen translates to an annualised distribution yield of 6.1%, said CMRM.
CMRM chairman Kee Teck Koon said the stronger results were boosted by the Gurney Plaza extension in 3QFY11, the acquisition of which was completed on March 28.
“Since then, we have announced another acquisition of East Coast Mall in Kuantan, which is expected to be completed by year-end. We continue to actively look for acquisition opportunities as part of our growth strategy to enhance unit holder value,” he said.
Sharon Lim, CEO of CMRM, said East Coast Mall is expected to contribute over RM20 million in net property income per year to CMMT’s existing portfolio.
Lim said CMMT had a near full occupancy rate of 98.7% across its portfolio and rental renewal increases of 6.7%.
“Our asset enhancement works at Gurney Plaza are progressing well and on track to be completed by year-end, and will start contributing to our income from next year onwards,” Lim said.
A “pure-play” shopping mall REIT, CMMT’s portfolio comprises Gurney Plaza in Penang, The Mines in Selangor, and an interest in Sungei Wang Plaza in Kuala Lumpur. The portfolio has a total net lettable area of over two million sq ft.
For the cumulative nine-month period, CMMT’s distributable income quadrupled to RM85.4 million from RM21.1million a year ago while revenue more than tripled to RM167.7 million from RM43.4 million.
Shares in CMMT closed unchanged at RM1.28 yesterday.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, Ocotber 14, 2011.
KUALA LUMPUR: CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust’s (CMMT) distributable income in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2011 (3QFY11), rose 40.6% to RM29.7 million from a year ago on higher property income and gross revenue.
Revenue increased 33.3% to RM57.84 million from RM43.39 million.
CMMT’s distributable income rose on net property income of RM41.1 million (35.6% higher than 3QFY10) and gross revenue of RM57.8 million (33.3% higher than 3QFY10), said CapitaMalls Malaysia REIT Management Sdn Bhd (CMRM), the manager of CMMT, in a press release yesterday.
For 3QFY11, CMMT distribution per unit (DPU) increased by 26.9% to 1.98 sen compared with 1.56 sen a year ago.
Based on CMMT’s closing price of RM1.28 per unit yesterday, its DPU of 1.98 sen translates to an annualised distribution yield of 6.1%, said CMRM.
CMRM chairman Kee Teck Koon said the stronger results were boosted by the Gurney Plaza extension in 3QFY11, the acquisition of which was completed on March 28.
“Since then, we have announced another acquisition of East Coast Mall in Kuantan, which is expected to be completed by year-end. We continue to actively look for acquisition opportunities as part of our growth strategy to enhance unit holder value,” he said.
Sharon Lim, CEO of CMRM, said East Coast Mall is expected to contribute over RM20 million in net property income per year to CMMT’s existing portfolio.
Lim said CMMT had a near full occupancy rate of 98.7% across its portfolio and rental renewal increases of 6.7%.
“Our asset enhancement works at Gurney Plaza are progressing well and on track to be completed by year-end, and will start contributing to our income from next year onwards,” Lim said.
A “pure-play” shopping mall REIT, CMMT’s portfolio comprises Gurney Plaza in Penang, The Mines in Selangor, and an interest in Sungei Wang Plaza in Kuala Lumpur. The portfolio has a total net lettable area of over two million sq ft.
For the cumulative nine-month period, CMMT’s distributable income quadrupled to RM85.4 million from RM21.1million a year ago while revenue more than tripled to RM167.7 million from RM43.4 million.
Shares in CMMT closed unchanged at RM1.28 yesterday.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, Ocotber 14, 2011.
Headwinds for education stocks
KUALA LUMPUR: The education sector was once an investor darling, but counters like HELP International Corp Bhd and Masterskill Education Group Bhd have headed south due to sector-wide over-expansion, rising competition and lower student intake.
Last month, RHB Research downgraded the sector to “neutral” on fears of a weak market outlook.
“We are turning cautious on prospects for the education sector in the coming quarter given rising macroeconomic headwinds, illiquidity of the stock in the sector, the relative small market cap of education stocks, and high foreign ownership,” it said in the Sept 29 report.
It downgraded HELP and Masterskill to “underperform” from “outperform” and “market perform”, while maintaining an “outperform” call on SEG International Bhd (SEGi).
RHB Research said education stocks were driven by Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) news flow in the past, but now the excitement has begun to recede.
“Entry point-projects (EPP) involving SEGi, such as the establishment of the Early Childhood Care and Education (ECCE) hub and the SkillsMalaysia INVITE programme, are already underway, while the announcement of the gradual liberalisation of the education sector under the Strategic Reform Initiatives is already priced in,” it said.
The research house has cut its FY12 price-earnings ratio (PER) by one or two times for the sector as its previous valuations were “overly optimistic” given the bearish outlook.
The poor outlook for the sector may be evident from the poor showing in financial results for some companies.
For 3QFY11 ended July 31, HELP’s net profit dived 92% to RM245,000 compared with RM3.24 million a year earlier. Its revenue, however, was flattish at RM23.96 million compared with RM23.38 million a year ago. For the nine months to July 2011, HELP’s net profit fell 25% to RM9.48 million, despite a 2.3% increase in revenue to RM79.63 million.
Similarly, Masterskill’s net profit fell 48% to RM11.58 million for 2QFY11 ended June 30, compared with RM22.43 million a year earlier.
Adam Chan Eu-Khin, HELP director of corporate planning, said the drastic fall in profit was mainly due to a one-off RM5 million cost to relocate its HELP ICT College from Klang to Fraser Business Park in Kuala Lumpur.
“As a result, we had to delay enrolment for our new courses as well,” he said.
Analysts, however, have noted that HELP’s earnings would still be flattish on a year-on-year basis without the RM5 million relocation cost.
“The delay caused HELP to postpone enrolment and marketing campaigns for new courses for the January/March intakes this year, which were reflected mostly in the 2QFY11 numbers,” said InsiderAsia in a recent report. It added that with HELP’s promotion to university status, it had to increase its manpower costs.
HELP was elevated to full university status in September, joining the ranks of the country’s 26 private universities.
HELP also saw its intake in Vietnam postponed due to a quality test by the government earlier this year, and had to incur cost to transfer its twinning programmes from HELP University College to HELP Academy.
Despite these headwinds, HELP is optimistic for better days ahead.
“The Vietnamese government has given the green light and we now have 50 students. We are beginning to market and recruit more students and hope to enroll 200 students by end-2012,” said Chan. He added it will also begin marketing to recruit more students after the relocation of its facility to Fraser Business Park.
Chan noted that the weakening US dollar has caused many Chinese students to pursue their education directly in the US and UK instead of Malaysia, and this will be a continuing trend in the future.
He added that given the recent termination of the joint-venture (JV) with Asia Pacific Land Bhd (AP Land), HELP will postpone its expansion plans in China indefinitely.
OSK Research analyst Kong Heng Siong said the termination of the JV with AP Land is a blessing in disguise as HELP would then be able to focus on marketing and improving its operations in the local and Southeast Asia markets.
“If you look at HELP’s operations, it has a firmer presence in Southeast Asia than China. It should definitely focus on recruiting students in this market as Malaysia will become a very attractive destination for tertiary education for those who cannot afford to go to US and UK,” he said.
Kong said he is unperturbed with the RM5 million relocation cost and expenditure to hire new staff, as the “short-term pain” is necessary to secure long-term growth for the group.
“However, HELP is still a niche player and it needs to diversify its offering in order to be able to attract more students in the future. HELP is expanding now, but it needs to ensure that it has enough students to fill the capacity,” he said.
An analyst with InsiderAsia noted that SEGi had experienced a similar gestation period when it expanded in the past, and is confident HELP’s earnings growth will recover in the future.
He said SEGi took a long while to digest all its acquisitions, brands and products.
“It was only in early 2010 that investors really took notice of SEGi’s turnaround and the stock price surged,” he said.
Earlier in the decade, SEGi’s profitability was low. Between 2001 and 2005, it offered courses under different brand names, such as Prime and Systematic. In 2006, the company streamlined its operations and consolidated into six large branches, including its flagship campus in Kota Damansara and used a single “SEGi” brand name.
By 2008, the fruit of the exercise was reaped, as SEGi’s pre-tax profit soared to RM9.88 million from RM2.48 million in 2007. It rose further to RM14.61 million in 2009 and RM54.31 million in 2010.
While the opening of the Fraser Business Park branch this year and the new Subang 2 campus in 2013 could cause some volatility in HELP’s medium-term earnings, the analyst is optimistic it will set the foundation for stronger growth in the future. “HELP is investing for the future,” he said, adding that another avenue for growth is its planned diversification into the lucrative private secondary education segment.
Kong said there are few catalysts that would re-rate HELP at the moment but there could be a minor improvement in profit for 4Q, depending on student intake in September. He added that HELP could propose a capital exercise to raise funds to build its flagship campus at Subang 2, which would also make its shares more liquid. OSK Research has a fair value of RM1.99 for HELP.
As for Masterskill, Kong said the stock has been battered down due to late student intake and reduction of National Higher Education Fund (PTPTN) loan approvals. About 95% of Masterskill students depend on PTPTN for funding.
“Masterskill has also seen some new competition in the healthcare education business. Just like HELP, Masterskill will need to diversify its offering,” he said.
OSK Research has a “trading buy” call on Masterskill with fair value of RM1.91.
Masterskill now has to contend with a new competitor in the form of KPJ Healthcare Bhd, Malaysia’s largest private hospital operator.
In July, KPJ’s education subsidiary, KPJ International College of Nursing and Health Sciences (KPJIUC), attained university college status, giving it a boost in academic standing and the ability to grant its own degrees. KPJ plans to invest RM120 million to expand its Nilai campus and aims to see a student enrolment of 10,000 by 2015.
Datin Siti Sa’diah Sheikh Bakir, KPJ managing director, has said the institution aims to acquire the status of a full-fledged university by 2016.
KPJ has a large infrastructure of hospitals, doctors and nursing staff which can support its courses, provide its students on-the-job training and give them future employment opportunities.
While Masterskill has no hospitals, it may have better economies of scale, with a revenue base about 10 times higher and a student base seven times larger than KPJIUC’s.
HELP has lost 40.5% from its 52-week high of RM2.84 to last Friday’s close of RM1.69, while Masterskill has fallen 66.3% from its year-high of RM3.49 to RM1.18 last Friday.
Among the education stocks, SEGi stands as both OSK Research and RHB Research’s top picks.
“In the education business, size does matter. SEGi currently has a very diversified offering and is focusing on the middle-income group that forms a large population here. There is also room to grow its student number from 25,000 currently to its full capacity of 30,000,” he said.
SEGi saw its net profit grow 78% to RM36.25 million for 1HFY11 ended June, on the back of RM137.7 million in revenue. Its share price, however, has fallen 19.2% from a recent high of RM2.08 in July to RM1.68 last Friday.
“SEGi is still our pick for the sector, due to its good track record and resilience in riding out market uncertainties. SEGi deservedly trades at a premium to its peers at 12.8 times FY12 PER (HELP at 12.6 and Masterskill 8.8 times), supported by its superior compound annual growth rate of 26.3% (HELP 7.7% and Masterskill -19.6%).
We continue to believe that SEGi is best poised to deliver growth going forward,” said RHB Research.
Apart from SEGi, OSK Research is also upbeat on Bursa Malaysia newcomer Prestariang Bhd, which offers ICT certification and distribution of software licences.
“Prestariang has a very secure business model with a good response to its courses by both graduates and undergraduates. Other stocks are expected to see gradual earnings growth, but Prestariang is expected to see its earnings grow by more than 50% for FY11,” said Kong, who added the counter has an attractive low single-digit valuation.
Listed on July 27, Prestariang posted RM12.99 million in net profit and RM45.99 million revenue for 1HFY11 ended June 30. However, its stock has since fallen 25.6% from its IPO price of 90 sen to Friday’s close of 67 sen.
Prestariang currently has an order book of RM280 million, with projects until 2015. It also counts international players such as Microsoft, Oracle, IBM and Autodesk as partners.
Alexander Chia of RHB Research said in the midst of waning global market sentiment, investors are more inclined to invest in defensive stocks.
“With a global recession looking possible next year, defensive stocks are in favour. In addition, investors looking to bottom fish to benefit from a near-term market bounce, would likely gravitate to higher beta issues that have seen a sharp selldown,” he said.
He added that although there is long-term growth potential for the education sector, HELP is a rather illiquid stock, which does not make it attractive for investors given the bearish market environment.
Although education is a non-cyclical sector, the headwinds faced by some players have been a drag on their performance and it remains to be seen when these will blow over.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, Ocotber 17, 2011.
Last month, RHB Research downgraded the sector to “neutral” on fears of a weak market outlook.
“We are turning cautious on prospects for the education sector in the coming quarter given rising macroeconomic headwinds, illiquidity of the stock in the sector, the relative small market cap of education stocks, and high foreign ownership,” it said in the Sept 29 report.
It downgraded HELP and Masterskill to “underperform” from “outperform” and “market perform”, while maintaining an “outperform” call on SEG International Bhd (SEGi).
RHB Research said education stocks were driven by Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) news flow in the past, but now the excitement has begun to recede.
“Entry point-projects (EPP) involving SEGi, such as the establishment of the Early Childhood Care and Education (ECCE) hub and the SkillsMalaysia INVITE programme, are already underway, while the announcement of the gradual liberalisation of the education sector under the Strategic Reform Initiatives is already priced in,” it said.
The research house has cut its FY12 price-earnings ratio (PER) by one or two times for the sector as its previous valuations were “overly optimistic” given the bearish outlook.
The poor outlook for the sector may be evident from the poor showing in financial results for some companies.
For 3QFY11 ended July 31, HELP’s net profit dived 92% to RM245,000 compared with RM3.24 million a year earlier. Its revenue, however, was flattish at RM23.96 million compared with RM23.38 million a year ago. For the nine months to July 2011, HELP’s net profit fell 25% to RM9.48 million, despite a 2.3% increase in revenue to RM79.63 million.
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Adam Chan Eu-Khin, HELP director of corporate planning, said the drastic fall in profit was mainly due to a one-off RM5 million cost to relocate its HELP ICT College from Klang to Fraser Business Park in Kuala Lumpur.
“As a result, we had to delay enrolment for our new courses as well,” he said.
Analysts, however, have noted that HELP’s earnings would still be flattish on a year-on-year basis without the RM5 million relocation cost.
“The delay caused HELP to postpone enrolment and marketing campaigns for new courses for the January/March intakes this year, which were reflected mostly in the 2QFY11 numbers,” said InsiderAsia in a recent report. It added that with HELP’s promotion to university status, it had to increase its manpower costs.
HELP was elevated to full university status in September, joining the ranks of the country’s 26 private universities.
HELP also saw its intake in Vietnam postponed due to a quality test by the government earlier this year, and had to incur cost to transfer its twinning programmes from HELP University College to HELP Academy.
Despite these headwinds, HELP is optimistic for better days ahead.
“The Vietnamese government has given the green light and we now have 50 students. We are beginning to market and recruit more students and hope to enroll 200 students by end-2012,” said Chan. He added it will also begin marketing to recruit more students after the relocation of its facility to Fraser Business Park.
Chan noted that the weakening US dollar has caused many Chinese students to pursue their education directly in the US and UK instead of Malaysia, and this will be a continuing trend in the future.
He added that given the recent termination of the joint-venture (JV) with Asia Pacific Land Bhd (AP Land), HELP will postpone its expansion plans in China indefinitely.
OSK Research analyst Kong Heng Siong said the termination of the JV with AP Land is a blessing in disguise as HELP would then be able to focus on marketing and improving its operations in the local and Southeast Asia markets.
“If you look at HELP’s operations, it has a firmer presence in Southeast Asia than China. It should definitely focus on recruiting students in this market as Malaysia will become a very attractive destination for tertiary education for those who cannot afford to go to US and UK,” he said.
Kong said he is unperturbed with the RM5 million relocation cost and expenditure to hire new staff, as the “short-term pain” is necessary to secure long-term growth for the group.
“However, HELP is still a niche player and it needs to diversify its offering in order to be able to attract more students in the future. HELP is expanding now, but it needs to ensure that it has enough students to fill the capacity,” he said.
An analyst with InsiderAsia noted that SEGi had experienced a similar gestation period when it expanded in the past, and is confident HELP’s earnings growth will recover in the future.
He said SEGi took a long while to digest all its acquisitions, brands and products.
“It was only in early 2010 that investors really took notice of SEGi’s turnaround and the stock price surged,” he said.
Earlier in the decade, SEGi’s profitability was low. Between 2001 and 2005, it offered courses under different brand names, such as Prime and Systematic. In 2006, the company streamlined its operations and consolidated into six large branches, including its flagship campus in Kota Damansara and used a single “SEGi” brand name.
By 2008, the fruit of the exercise was reaped, as SEGi’s pre-tax profit soared to RM9.88 million from RM2.48 million in 2007. It rose further to RM14.61 million in 2009 and RM54.31 million in 2010.
While the opening of the Fraser Business Park branch this year and the new Subang 2 campus in 2013 could cause some volatility in HELP’s medium-term earnings, the analyst is optimistic it will set the foundation for stronger growth in the future. “HELP is investing for the future,” he said, adding that another avenue for growth is its planned diversification into the lucrative private secondary education segment.
Kong said there are few catalysts that would re-rate HELP at the moment but there could be a minor improvement in profit for 4Q, depending on student intake in September. He added that HELP could propose a capital exercise to raise funds to build its flagship campus at Subang 2, which would also make its shares more liquid. OSK Research has a fair value of RM1.99 for HELP.
As for Masterskill, Kong said the stock has been battered down due to late student intake and reduction of National Higher Education Fund (PTPTN) loan approvals. About 95% of Masterskill students depend on PTPTN for funding.
“Masterskill has also seen some new competition in the healthcare education business. Just like HELP, Masterskill will need to diversify its offering,” he said.
OSK Research has a “trading buy” call on Masterskill with fair value of RM1.91.
Masterskill now has to contend with a new competitor in the form of KPJ Healthcare Bhd, Malaysia’s largest private hospital operator.
In July, KPJ’s education subsidiary, KPJ International College of Nursing and Health Sciences (KPJIUC), attained university college status, giving it a boost in academic standing and the ability to grant its own degrees. KPJ plans to invest RM120 million to expand its Nilai campus and aims to see a student enrolment of 10,000 by 2015.
Datin Siti Sa’diah Sheikh Bakir, KPJ managing director, has said the institution aims to acquire the status of a full-fledged university by 2016.
KPJ has a large infrastructure of hospitals, doctors and nursing staff which can support its courses, provide its students on-the-job training and give them future employment opportunities.
While Masterskill has no hospitals, it may have better economies of scale, with a revenue base about 10 times higher and a student base seven times larger than KPJIUC’s.
HELP has lost 40.5% from its 52-week high of RM2.84 to last Friday’s close of RM1.69, while Masterskill has fallen 66.3% from its year-high of RM3.49 to RM1.18 last Friday.
Among the education stocks, SEGi stands as both OSK Research and RHB Research’s top picks.
“In the education business, size does matter. SEGi currently has a very diversified offering and is focusing on the middle-income group that forms a large population here. There is also room to grow its student number from 25,000 currently to its full capacity of 30,000,” he said.
SEGi saw its net profit grow 78% to RM36.25 million for 1HFY11 ended June, on the back of RM137.7 million in revenue. Its share price, however, has fallen 19.2% from a recent high of RM2.08 in July to RM1.68 last Friday.
“SEGi is still our pick for the sector, due to its good track record and resilience in riding out market uncertainties. SEGi deservedly trades at a premium to its peers at 12.8 times FY12 PER (HELP at 12.6 and Masterskill 8.8 times), supported by its superior compound annual growth rate of 26.3% (HELP 7.7% and Masterskill -19.6%).
We continue to believe that SEGi is best poised to deliver growth going forward,” said RHB Research.
Apart from SEGi, OSK Research is also upbeat on Bursa Malaysia newcomer Prestariang Bhd, which offers ICT certification and distribution of software licences.
“Prestariang has a very secure business model with a good response to its courses by both graduates and undergraduates. Other stocks are expected to see gradual earnings growth, but Prestariang is expected to see its earnings grow by more than 50% for FY11,” said Kong, who added the counter has an attractive low single-digit valuation.
Listed on July 27, Prestariang posted RM12.99 million in net profit and RM45.99 million revenue for 1HFY11 ended June 30. However, its stock has since fallen 25.6% from its IPO price of 90 sen to Friday’s close of 67 sen.
Prestariang currently has an order book of RM280 million, with projects until 2015. It also counts international players such as Microsoft, Oracle, IBM and Autodesk as partners.
Alexander Chia of RHB Research said in the midst of waning global market sentiment, investors are more inclined to invest in defensive stocks.
“With a global recession looking possible next year, defensive stocks are in favour. In addition, investors looking to bottom fish to benefit from a near-term market bounce, would likely gravitate to higher beta issues that have seen a sharp selldown,” he said.
He added that although there is long-term growth potential for the education sector, HELP is a rather illiquid stock, which does not make it attractive for investors given the bearish market environment.
Although education is a non-cyclical sector, the headwinds faced by some players have been a drag on their performance and it remains to be seen when these will blow over.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, Ocotber 17, 2011.
Public Bank third quarter net profit rises 14.8pc
KUALA LUMPUR: Public Bank Bhd's net profit for the third quarter ended September 30 increased 14.8 per cent to RM898.7 million, up from RM782.7 million a year ago.
This was driven by strong loans and deposits growth and stable asset quality, which resulted in higher net interest income and lower loan impairment charges, the bank said.
"The outlook of the Malaysian banking sector, in which the group largely operates in, continues to be stable and supportive of growth.
"We continue to see the group's business performance to be in line with expectations and on track in meeting the key business targets for 2011," Public Bank's founder and chairman Tan Sri Teh Hong Piow said in a statement yesterday.
Revenue for the same period increased by 13.7 per cent to RM3.27 billion from RM2.87 billion, while earnings per share were 25.66 sen, compared with 22.35 sen a year ago.
"The retail banking business is projected to grow at a moderate pace amid stiff competition and the introduction of regulatory measures to address rising household debt levels," Teh said.
For the nine months ended September 30, 2011, its net profit grew 18.4 per cent to RM2.6 billion from RM2.2 billion, while revenue rose 16.9 per cent to RM9.4 billion from RM8.1 billion previously.
"The Public Bank group's sound financial results are a validation of its effective organic growth strategies and sustainable business model.
"The group net return on equity of 26.7 per cent remains the highest among Malaysian banks."
The net profit growth and net return on equity were driven by strong revenue growth, continued disciplined cost management with low cost-to-income ratio of 30 per cent, and superior asset quality with improvement in credit charges by 15 per cent.
Public Bank reaffirmed its number one position in domestic lending for residential mortgages, commercial property financing and passenger vehicles financing.
Teh said the bank's balance sheet growth indicators remained healthy with gross loans at RM172.7 billion, up 13.8 per cent on an annualised basis.
Domestic loan growth, meanwhile, remained strong with an annualised growth rate of 14.1 per cent.
Total customer deposits grew by an annualised rate of 12.7 per cent to RM193.7 billion, while domestic customer deposits grew at a stronger annualised growth rate of 13.8 per cent.
"The outlook of the Malaysian banking sector, in which the group largely operates in, continues to be stable and supportive of growth.
"We continue to see the group's business performance to be in line with expectations and on track in meeting the key business targets for 2011," Public Bank's founder and chairman Tan Sri Teh Hong Piow said in a statement yesterday.
Revenue for the same period increased by 13.7 per cent to RM3.27 billion from RM2.87 billion, while earnings per share were 25.66 sen, compared with 22.35 sen a year ago.
For the nine months ended September 30, 2011, its net profit grew 18.4 per cent to RM2.6 billion from RM2.2 billion, while revenue rose 16.9 per cent to RM9.4 billion from RM8.1 billion previously.
"The Public Bank group's sound financial results are a validation of its effective organic growth strategies and sustainable business model.
"The group net return on equity of 26.7 per cent remains the highest among Malaysian banks."
The net profit growth and net return on equity were driven by strong revenue growth, continued disciplined cost management with low cost-to-income ratio of 30 per cent, and superior asset quality with improvement in credit charges by 15 per cent.
Public Bank reaffirmed its number one position in domestic lending for residential mortgages, commercial property financing and passenger vehicles financing.
Teh said the bank's balance sheet growth indicators remained healthy with gross loans at RM172.7 billion, up 13.8 per cent on an annualised basis.
Domestic loan growth, meanwhile, remained strong with an annualised growth rate of 14.1 per cent.
Total customer deposits grew by an annualised rate of 12.7 per cent to RM193.7 billion, while domestic customer deposits grew at a stronger annualised growth rate of 13.8 per cent.
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
China bubble concerns spread
Wednesday October 12, 2011
Developers and insurance companies rushing to invest in commercial property
BEIJING: Concerns over a bubble in China's residential property market are spreading to the commercial real-estate sector at a time when developers are upping their exposure, and the country's insurance industry is poised to invest huge sums into the space.
While commercial prices are steady and insurance companies are watching and waiting, residential property developers have increased investments in the office sector after Chinese government measures were instituted to cool home prices.
Shimao Property, Country Garden, China Resources Land and Poly have been increasing their investments in commercial property. Smaller developers such as SinoOcean Land and Gemdale are increasing commercial exposure, too.
Commercial real-estate investment in China will exceed one trillion yuan (US$157bil) this year, up from 740 billion yuan in 2010, as developers have shifted away from the housing market, the target of nearly two years of government measures to cool the sector.
The investment frenzy into commercial property has also been fuelled by expectations of a potentially huge demand from China's insurers, which won approval late last year to invest up to 10% of their assets in real estate, most of which was aimed at commercial properties.
Investmen frenzy: Workmen install a poster onto a wall surrounding a construction site showing an artist’s impression of the new business district of Binhai, on the outskirts of Tianjin in this March 2, 2011 file photo. A glut of commercial property is already plaguing cities such as Chengdu, Shenyang and Tianjin. — Reuters But even before any major investment from insurance companies, prices of office space and shopping malls have jumped and rental yields have slipped due to speculative buying, fuelling concerns of a bubble forming across the industry.
“The low investment yield does give us some concern that prices probably have gone up a lot and we need to see the income growth before we can see values going higher,” said Michael Klibaner, head of China research for property consultancy Jones Lang LaSalle.
Insurers, including China Life, Ping An, China Pacific and Goldman Sachs backed Taikang Life, have 500 billion yuan available to invest in property, based on the industry's total assets of about five trillion yuan.
That's enough to buy all top-grade office buildings in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, analysts say.
But only a fraction of the 500 billion yuan has been invested so far, as insurers keep a tight grasp on their money, given the concerns surrounding the sector.
Annual gross rental yields on commercial properties in major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have fallen to 46% from around 10% several years ago.
Commercial properties in major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are now generating annual gross rental returns that are below China's official one-year lending rate of 6.56%. That means if investors borrow and plough that money into commercial property, they stand to lose because the returns won't even cover the borrowing cost.
Last month, China's banking regulator urged banks to strictly monitor risks when they provide loans to commercial property projects and set a higher criteria for approving such loans than for home mortgages.
The China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) currently requires insurers to submit all property transactions for its approval as it works on more detailed investment rules.
“The risk is a bit high if insurers invest in the real-estate market now. There are good reasons for CIRC to hold back the issuance of its final guidelines,” said Chen Hongxia, an analyst at Oriental Securities in Shanghai.
Faced with mounting pressure to meet their long-term liabilities amid a rapidly ageing population, insurers had spent years lobbying Beijing to lift the property investment ban.
Domestic investors are largely restricted from buying properties abroad due to China's closed capital account, forcing them to look for investment opportunities within the country.
Investment in commercial property is encouraged by China's vow to boost domestic consumption as part of its economic rebalancing.
Shirley Xiao, senior vice-president of top Chinese developer China Vanke, described the commercial property rush as irrational.
Many developers lacked the financial backing and human resources needed to run office properties and malls, and China's urbanisation was far from over, boding well for the residential sector over the long term, she said. “We don't think there is logic behind this.”
A glut of commercial property was already plaguing cities such as Chengdu, Shenyang and Tianjin, analysts said. - Reuters
Shopping malls are being built across the country, with some boasting floor areas of more than several hundred thousand sq m.
The rationale behind building more malls: China has much less retail space per capita than Europe and the United States. Retail space per capita in China is less than 0.5 sq m, compared with about one sq m in Europe and 23 sq m in the United States.
But some analysts say this comparison is misleading, given the sheer size of China's population.
In some major Chinese cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, retail space per capita is already nearing or surpassing the European and US levels.
Only large developers with easy access to bank credit and strong state parent backing, such as China Resources Land, would be successful in running large malls when there was a glut, analysts said.
It is more risky for smaller developers such as SinoOcean Land and Gemdale to expand aggressively in commercial property, which requires more expertise and is more capital intensive and time consuming.
And as more people shop online, it is getting increasingly challenging to run a shopping mall and make it appealing to merchants, consumers and investors.
“I think it will be a golden decade for the consumer Whether it will be a golden decade for developers remains to be seen,” said James Hawkey, executive director of retail services at Cushman & Wakefield in China. - Reuters
Developers and insurance companies rushing to invest in commercial property
BEIJING: Concerns over a bubble in China's residential property market are spreading to the commercial real-estate sector at a time when developers are upping their exposure, and the country's insurance industry is poised to invest huge sums into the space.
While commercial prices are steady and insurance companies are watching and waiting, residential property developers have increased investments in the office sector after Chinese government measures were instituted to cool home prices.
Shimao Property, Country Garden, China Resources Land and Poly have been increasing their investments in commercial property. Smaller developers such as SinoOcean Land and Gemdale are increasing commercial exposure, too.
Commercial real-estate investment in China will exceed one trillion yuan (US$157bil) this year, up from 740 billion yuan in 2010, as developers have shifted away from the housing market, the target of nearly two years of government measures to cool the sector.
The investment frenzy into commercial property has also been fuelled by expectations of a potentially huge demand from China's insurers, which won approval late last year to invest up to 10% of their assets in real estate, most of which was aimed at commercial properties.
Investmen frenzy: Workmen install a poster onto a wall surrounding a construction site showing an artist’s impression of the new business district of Binhai, on the outskirts of Tianjin in this March 2, 2011 file photo. A glut of commercial property is already plaguing cities such as Chengdu, Shenyang and Tianjin. — Reuters “The low investment yield does give us some concern that prices probably have gone up a lot and we need to see the income growth before we can see values going higher,” said Michael Klibaner, head of China research for property consultancy Jones Lang LaSalle.
Insurers, including China Life, Ping An, China Pacific and Goldman Sachs backed Taikang Life, have 500 billion yuan available to invest in property, based on the industry's total assets of about five trillion yuan.
That's enough to buy all top-grade office buildings in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, analysts say.
But only a fraction of the 500 billion yuan has been invested so far, as insurers keep a tight grasp on their money, given the concerns surrounding the sector.
Annual gross rental yields on commercial properties in major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have fallen to 46% from around 10% several years ago.
Commercial properties in major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are now generating annual gross rental returns that are below China's official one-year lending rate of 6.56%. That means if investors borrow and plough that money into commercial property, they stand to lose because the returns won't even cover the borrowing cost.
Last month, China's banking regulator urged banks to strictly monitor risks when they provide loans to commercial property projects and set a higher criteria for approving such loans than for home mortgages.
The China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) currently requires insurers to submit all property transactions for its approval as it works on more detailed investment rules.
“The risk is a bit high if insurers invest in the real-estate market now. There are good reasons for CIRC to hold back the issuance of its final guidelines,” said Chen Hongxia, an analyst at Oriental Securities in Shanghai.
Faced with mounting pressure to meet their long-term liabilities amid a rapidly ageing population, insurers had spent years lobbying Beijing to lift the property investment ban.
Domestic investors are largely restricted from buying properties abroad due to China's closed capital account, forcing them to look for investment opportunities within the country.
Investment in commercial property is encouraged by China's vow to boost domestic consumption as part of its economic rebalancing.
Shirley Xiao, senior vice-president of top Chinese developer China Vanke, described the commercial property rush as irrational.
Many developers lacked the financial backing and human resources needed to run office properties and malls, and China's urbanisation was far from over, boding well for the residential sector over the long term, she said. “We don't think there is logic behind this.”
A glut of commercial property was already plaguing cities such as Chengdu, Shenyang and Tianjin, analysts said. - Reuters
Shopping malls are being built across the country, with some boasting floor areas of more than several hundred thousand sq m.
The rationale behind building more malls: China has much less retail space per capita than Europe and the United States. Retail space per capita in China is less than 0.5 sq m, compared with about one sq m in Europe and 23 sq m in the United States.
But some analysts say this comparison is misleading, given the sheer size of China's population.
In some major Chinese cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, retail space per capita is already nearing or surpassing the European and US levels.
Only large developers with easy access to bank credit and strong state parent backing, such as China Resources Land, would be successful in running large malls when there was a glut, analysts said.
It is more risky for smaller developers such as SinoOcean Land and Gemdale to expand aggressively in commercial property, which requires more expertise and is more capital intensive and time consuming.
And as more people shop online, it is getting increasingly challenging to run a shopping mall and make it appealing to merchants, consumers and investors.
“I think it will be a golden decade for the consumer Whether it will be a golden decade for developers remains to be seen,” said James Hawkey, executive director of retail services at Cushman & Wakefield in China. - Reuters
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