Households as clean, sustainable electricity producers?
In the mid-1990s, there were only “big” boys in electricity generation such as YTL Corp, Genting Sanyen and Malakoff. They were popularly known as Independent Power producers' or IPPs and were looked upon with envy as it was alleged that they were making big bucks because of relatively high rates they received from TNB.
Fast forward 15 years. Now you and I can also be an IPP (the term “clean and sustainable electricity producer” is preferred) albeit a very much smaller one but with a difference.
Any owner of a link, semi-detached or bungalow house can now be, subject to approval, a small clean and sustainable energy producer by generating green electricity (as opposed to fossil-fuelled electricity by the big IPPs) and distribution licensee (such as TNB) is obliged to purchase it. What all this means is that if you have a solar photovoltaic (PV) generator at home, you can apply to connect this generator to the grid, and get paid for selling the electricity generated to TNB over the next 21 years.
Solar energy is clean, environmentally friendly and has zero emissions. There is no depletion of natural resources and it is one of the fastest growing energy sources in the world.
And yes the rates are very attractive for generating electricity using solar photovoltaic (PV) technology; it is about four times the normal domestic TNB electricity rates (at RM0.40 per kWh). All you have to do is simply to apply and obtain a feed-in approval from the newly-established Sustainable Energy Development Authority Malaysia (Seda Malaysia), sign a renewable energy power purchase agreement (REPPA) with TNB and install the solar PV system on your rooftop.
On the average, the bungalow is able to produce about 1,000 kWh of electricity per month (based on 10kW installed PV capacity). Given this, the owner may earn about RM1,200 per month (based on FiT rate RM1.20 per kWh if the PV system is commissioned by 2012) and recoup his investment within eight to nine years. The earnings may be even higher if the house owner meets other bonus criteria such as installing as a building-integrated PV system. The current cost of 1 kW solar PV system ranges from RM12,000 to RM14,000.
The interesting thing is that for your average household needs, you purchase the electricity from TNB at between RM0.33 to 42.6 per kWh but when you produce the clean electricity, you can sell it at between RM1.20 to RM1.70 per kWh depending on the installed capacity and the qualifying bonus criteria for solar PV.
The longer the sun shines, the more one can “export” electricity to the national grid during daylight hours (when power is urgently needed) and earn income. The downside and risk is that during cloudy days, the income can be reduced significantly when the sun is not shining. If you apply now, you can lock in these premium rates for the next 21 years!
Unlike the huge IPPs which use natural gas or coal as feedstock to generate electricity, the household does not need to pay for any raw material or fuel because sunshine is free. For as long as the sun is shining, the solar PV panels will generate electricity. Another advantage of solar power is that no extra space is required because the panels can be installed on the rooftop. (Suddenly rooftops have income potential. Many factory owners are now contemplating installing solar PV panels on their rooftop to earn extra revenue while others are approaching factory owners to rent them their roofs.)
On Dec 1 2011, Seda Malaysia invited the public including households, small and not-so-big IPPs (maximum size is 30 MW but only 5 MWp rated capacity for solar PV) to apply and book the amount of green electricity they intended to produce to sell it to the distribution licensee. There are fixed quotas for each of the four renewable energy sources namely biomass (including solid waste), biogas (including landfill), small hydro and solar PV. There was overwhelming response to solar PV especially for the non-individuals.
The good news is that bookings are still open for individuals and households intending to install solar PV systems as there is still available capacity for this category. As at Dec 7, Seda reported that the total unfulfilled quota for solar PV is 6,650 kW; 1,650 kW to be commissioned by the first half 2013, 2500 kW each for second half of 2013 and first half of 2014.
Translating these figures into households, it would mean that about 665 bungalow owners can avail themselves to the remaining capacity (assuming their average capacity is 10 kW). If all of the remaining capacity is taken up by semi-detached owners, the number will increase to 1,330 assuming their installed PV capacity is 5 kW. The figure for typical link houses, assuming an installed capacity of 3 kW, is 2,217 households.
The price guarantee for 21 years has been made possible by the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) scheme implemented by Seda Malaysia. This scheme will be financed by the newly-established Renewable Energy (RE) Fund, to which all electricity users (except for those domestic customers consuming less than 300 kWh per month) will be required to contribute an additional 1% of their electricity bill.
House-owners who do not participate in solar PV electricity generation should not begrudge the payment of the additional 1%. Instead they should view it as one of their contributions to a cleaner and healthier environment. This is their social contribution for cleaner air. The public and community must also share in undertaking this heavy responsibility with the Government.
Dr Pola Singh is a board member of the Sustainable Energy Development Authority (Seda), Malaysia. The views expressed are his own. The public can apply for the feed-in approval via efit.seda.gov.my and more information can be obtained from Seda's official portal at www.seda.gov.my
Showing posts with label Business Weekly. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Business Weekly. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Thursday, October 20, 2011
新手買股票，先建立 10個正確態度
- 文章編號 : 1592
- 發表時間 : 2011-10-20 11:20:35
文─黃采薇
2006年6月 Cheers雜誌
1.選定產業，培養熟悉度、敏感度
股海茫茫，從哪裡下手？
投資股票的第1步就應該從券商報告、各類財經新聞中找出後勢看漲的族群，持續觀察，培養敏銳度。
如果投資的是電子業，三不五時到光華商場、fnac去逛逛，了解該產業鏈中哪些產品正當紅。
2.避免在行情處於高檔時忽略風險
當市場行情大好時，一般人常會因為過度樂觀連連加碼。卻忽略了股市上攀時，風險也相對增加。群益證券執行副總裁辛日祺舉例，同樣是7％的漲跌幅，股價從100元跌下來會損失7元，但從50元漲上去只賺了3塊5。
要用低點漲幅彌補高點跌幅，無異截短補長。一片長紅下更要如履薄冰，別讓過熱的氣氛亂了投資準頭。
3.買股票，挑產業中的龍頭股
新手上路，專家會建議先看產業龍頭股。舉例來說，手機族群首推宏達電，面板看友達，LED以億光、晶電為首，鋼鐵類股看中鋼，其他傳產各類股中，台塑是佼佼者。以這些競爭力較強的公司為指標，抓幾檔出來固定投資，較能穩定獲利。
4.不熟悉的股票別碰，切忌頻頻換股
投資股票市場最好只操作自己熟悉的股票，選定幾個時間點來回操作，甚至可以1年進出個1、2次就好，不要常常換股，才能累積對該投資標的的觀察。
5.沒準備20萬，勿輕易入股市
群益投信資產管理部基金經理蔡昀達認為，如果想要涉足股市，最好要有新台幣20萬元以上的資本額。
許多產業龍頭股市值高得嚇人，就算要採取融資的方式投資，還是要有一定資金才有「選股」空間，否則單買幾支雞蛋、水餃股，風險相對集中，也未必能挑到體質健全的股票。
6.財報數字停、看、聽
數字會說話，公司前景如何、能否持續獲利，財務報表一定能透露出端倪。
首先，注意該企業的營收、獲利和EPS（每股盈餘）是否持續成長，這些是企業營運成效反映在股價市值的指標性數字。可以畫張圖，看看這幾項指標在各時間點 上的變動。部份類股（例如電子股）營收會有明顯淡、旺季的差異，所以短時間的震盪不必太在意，抓個3、5年，只要趨勢向上，大抵上該公司體質堪稱穩健。
其次，觀察毛利率。毛利率高的公司在面對上、下游產品鏈通常有較高議價能力，獲利較為強勁。
除此之外，挑選類股時，成交量也是判準依據。元大證券研究中心協理鄭宗祺舉例，在台灣，科技類股的總市值約佔50％左右，但多數時候，交易量卻可以達到8成以上，代表電子股交易熱絡，是市場的當紅炸子雞。
他建議，投資人不妨觀望2～3個月，就可判斷出哪些類股是投資市場的主流。
7.不信明牌，理性為上
「老師在講，你有沒有在聽？」這又麻辣又諷刺的《全民大悶鍋》劇情，也常常在你的投資世界中上演嗎？當心，電視上投顧「老師」的「明牌好康報」，有時候反而是票房毒藥，讓你在投資市場上吃大虧。
其實，看財經新聞應該要著重在增加對投資知識的了解，諸如產業特性，或是國際貨幣、原物料價格走向與股票市場間的因果邏輯。至於到底該買哪支股，參酌各方資訊外，投資人該有自己的判斷。
8.「擦鞋童理論」保你免住套房
報上某支股票扶搖直上的消息，常讓人心癢難耐，急於加碼。元富證券投顧經理江政勳用「擦鞋童理論」的妙喻，提醒這個心理盲點：當市場行情已經熱絡到連擦鞋童都知道時，往往是「利多出盡」的時刻，此時宜減不宜加，千萬別讓你的錢跑在擦鞋童之後，成為市場上最後一隻老鼠。
9.設立明確停損點
買到一支連續3天跌停板的股票，該怎麼反應？
跌10％也許還沉得住氣、跌20％就開始心慌慌，如果聲勢再向下走，許多人往往眼不見為淨，鴕鳥式地悶頭不理，任憑股票就這樣以20％、50％的跌幅持續下墜，直到下市，投資血本無歸。
其實購買股票應該明確訂出停損點，配合波段操作，將損失降到最小。設定下跌10％時售出若干持有比重，下跌20％時再出售一部份股權。如此彈性操作，可以避免在利空大量失血，該股票回漲時，也不會因為早早拋售完畢而憾恨。
10.選擇現金股利高的股票
德盛安聯投信投資管理部副總經理吳宏圖認為，雖然台灣股市從去年到目前為止漲幅有限，但整個亞洲區過去2、3年漲幅不少，投資人還是保守為宜，投資人應該買些現金股利高、本益比相對較低，財務體質佳的股票，追求10％～15％的年報酬率，不要過度貪心。
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
China bubble concerns spread
Wednesday October 12, 2011
Developers and insurance companies rushing to invest in commercial property
BEIJING: Concerns over a bubble in China's residential property market are spreading to the commercial real-estate sector at a time when developers are upping their exposure, and the country's insurance industry is poised to invest huge sums into the space.
While commercial prices are steady and insurance companies are watching and waiting, residential property developers have increased investments in the office sector after Chinese government measures were instituted to cool home prices.
Shimao Property, Country Garden, China Resources Land and Poly have been increasing their investments in commercial property. Smaller developers such as SinoOcean Land and Gemdale are increasing commercial exposure, too.
Commercial real-estate investment in China will exceed one trillion yuan (US$157bil) this year, up from 740 billion yuan in 2010, as developers have shifted away from the housing market, the target of nearly two years of government measures to cool the sector.
The investment frenzy into commercial property has also been fuelled by expectations of a potentially huge demand from China's insurers, which won approval late last year to invest up to 10% of their assets in real estate, most of which was aimed at commercial properties.
Investmen frenzy: Workmen install a poster onto a wall surrounding a construction site showing an artist’s impression of the new business district of Binhai, on the outskirts of Tianjin in this March 2, 2011 file photo. A glut of commercial property is already plaguing cities such as Chengdu, Shenyang and Tianjin. — Reuters But even before any major investment from insurance companies, prices of office space and shopping malls have jumped and rental yields have slipped due to speculative buying, fuelling concerns of a bubble forming across the industry.
“The low investment yield does give us some concern that prices probably have gone up a lot and we need to see the income growth before we can see values going higher,” said Michael Klibaner, head of China research for property consultancy Jones Lang LaSalle.
Insurers, including China Life, Ping An, China Pacific and Goldman Sachs backed Taikang Life, have 500 billion yuan available to invest in property, based on the industry's total assets of about five trillion yuan.
That's enough to buy all top-grade office buildings in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, analysts say.
But only a fraction of the 500 billion yuan has been invested so far, as insurers keep a tight grasp on their money, given the concerns surrounding the sector.
Annual gross rental yields on commercial properties in major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have fallen to 46% from around 10% several years ago.
Commercial properties in major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are now generating annual gross rental returns that are below China's official one-year lending rate of 6.56%. That means if investors borrow and plough that money into commercial property, they stand to lose because the returns won't even cover the borrowing cost.
Last month, China's banking regulator urged banks to strictly monitor risks when they provide loans to commercial property projects and set a higher criteria for approving such loans than for home mortgages.
The China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) currently requires insurers to submit all property transactions for its approval as it works on more detailed investment rules.
“The risk is a bit high if insurers invest in the real-estate market now. There are good reasons for CIRC to hold back the issuance of its final guidelines,” said Chen Hongxia, an analyst at Oriental Securities in Shanghai.
Faced with mounting pressure to meet their long-term liabilities amid a rapidly ageing population, insurers had spent years lobbying Beijing to lift the property investment ban.
Domestic investors are largely restricted from buying properties abroad due to China's closed capital account, forcing them to look for investment opportunities within the country.
Investment in commercial property is encouraged by China's vow to boost domestic consumption as part of its economic rebalancing.
Shirley Xiao, senior vice-president of top Chinese developer China Vanke, described the commercial property rush as irrational.
Many developers lacked the financial backing and human resources needed to run office properties and malls, and China's urbanisation was far from over, boding well for the residential sector over the long term, she said. “We don't think there is logic behind this.”
A glut of commercial property was already plaguing cities such as Chengdu, Shenyang and Tianjin, analysts said. - Reuters
Shopping malls are being built across the country, with some boasting floor areas of more than several hundred thousand sq m.
The rationale behind building more malls: China has much less retail space per capita than Europe and the United States. Retail space per capita in China is less than 0.5 sq m, compared with about one sq m in Europe and 23 sq m in the United States.
But some analysts say this comparison is misleading, given the sheer size of China's population.
In some major Chinese cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, retail space per capita is already nearing or surpassing the European and US levels.
Only large developers with easy access to bank credit and strong state parent backing, such as China Resources Land, would be successful in running large malls when there was a glut, analysts said.
It is more risky for smaller developers such as SinoOcean Land and Gemdale to expand aggressively in commercial property, which requires more expertise and is more capital intensive and time consuming.
And as more people shop online, it is getting increasingly challenging to run a shopping mall and make it appealing to merchants, consumers and investors.
“I think it will be a golden decade for the consumer Whether it will be a golden decade for developers remains to be seen,” said James Hawkey, executive director of retail services at Cushman & Wakefield in China. - Reuters
Developers and insurance companies rushing to invest in commercial property
BEIJING: Concerns over a bubble in China's residential property market are spreading to the commercial real-estate sector at a time when developers are upping their exposure, and the country's insurance industry is poised to invest huge sums into the space.
While commercial prices are steady and insurance companies are watching and waiting, residential property developers have increased investments in the office sector after Chinese government measures were instituted to cool home prices.
Shimao Property, Country Garden, China Resources Land and Poly have been increasing their investments in commercial property. Smaller developers such as SinoOcean Land and Gemdale are increasing commercial exposure, too.
Commercial real-estate investment in China will exceed one trillion yuan (US$157bil) this year, up from 740 billion yuan in 2010, as developers have shifted away from the housing market, the target of nearly two years of government measures to cool the sector.
The investment frenzy into commercial property has also been fuelled by expectations of a potentially huge demand from China's insurers, which won approval late last year to invest up to 10% of their assets in real estate, most of which was aimed at commercial properties.
Investmen frenzy: Workmen install a poster onto a wall surrounding a construction site showing an artist’s impression of the new business district of Binhai, on the outskirts of Tianjin in this March 2, 2011 file photo. A glut of commercial property is already plaguing cities such as Chengdu, Shenyang and Tianjin. — Reuters “The low investment yield does give us some concern that prices probably have gone up a lot and we need to see the income growth before we can see values going higher,” said Michael Klibaner, head of China research for property consultancy Jones Lang LaSalle.
Insurers, including China Life, Ping An, China Pacific and Goldman Sachs backed Taikang Life, have 500 billion yuan available to invest in property, based on the industry's total assets of about five trillion yuan.
That's enough to buy all top-grade office buildings in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, analysts say.
But only a fraction of the 500 billion yuan has been invested so far, as insurers keep a tight grasp on their money, given the concerns surrounding the sector.
Annual gross rental yields on commercial properties in major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have fallen to 46% from around 10% several years ago.
Commercial properties in major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are now generating annual gross rental returns that are below China's official one-year lending rate of 6.56%. That means if investors borrow and plough that money into commercial property, they stand to lose because the returns won't even cover the borrowing cost.
Last month, China's banking regulator urged banks to strictly monitor risks when they provide loans to commercial property projects and set a higher criteria for approving such loans than for home mortgages.
The China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) currently requires insurers to submit all property transactions for its approval as it works on more detailed investment rules.
“The risk is a bit high if insurers invest in the real-estate market now. There are good reasons for CIRC to hold back the issuance of its final guidelines,” said Chen Hongxia, an analyst at Oriental Securities in Shanghai.
Faced with mounting pressure to meet their long-term liabilities amid a rapidly ageing population, insurers had spent years lobbying Beijing to lift the property investment ban.
Domestic investors are largely restricted from buying properties abroad due to China's closed capital account, forcing them to look for investment opportunities within the country.
Investment in commercial property is encouraged by China's vow to boost domestic consumption as part of its economic rebalancing.
Shirley Xiao, senior vice-president of top Chinese developer China Vanke, described the commercial property rush as irrational.
Many developers lacked the financial backing and human resources needed to run office properties and malls, and China's urbanisation was far from over, boding well for the residential sector over the long term, she said. “We don't think there is logic behind this.”
A glut of commercial property was already plaguing cities such as Chengdu, Shenyang and Tianjin, analysts said. - Reuters
Shopping malls are being built across the country, with some boasting floor areas of more than several hundred thousand sq m.
The rationale behind building more malls: China has much less retail space per capita than Europe and the United States. Retail space per capita in China is less than 0.5 sq m, compared with about one sq m in Europe and 23 sq m in the United States.
But some analysts say this comparison is misleading, given the sheer size of China's population.
In some major Chinese cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, retail space per capita is already nearing or surpassing the European and US levels.
Only large developers with easy access to bank credit and strong state parent backing, such as China Resources Land, would be successful in running large malls when there was a glut, analysts said.
It is more risky for smaller developers such as SinoOcean Land and Gemdale to expand aggressively in commercial property, which requires more expertise and is more capital intensive and time consuming.
And as more people shop online, it is getting increasingly challenging to run a shopping mall and make it appealing to merchants, consumers and investors.
“I think it will be a golden decade for the consumer Whether it will be a golden decade for developers remains to be seen,” said James Hawkey, executive director of retail services at Cushman & Wakefield in China. - Reuters
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
翻身致富，你有選對標的嗎？及早投資這6項 你已經賺100倍！
撰文者：郭莉芳、蕭勝鴻
加入85度C，7年不到，身價暴增185倍85度C成立不到7年，去年底股票在台上市（編按：KY美食（2723）），當初成立資本額約13億元，目前市價約285元（截至 2011.1.14），總市值2,430億元，跟著老闆吳政學一起打拼的20位麵包師傅和資深幹部，共持有其中3成股權，這些人靠著創業，不到7年，手中 股票都增值185倍，年平均報酬率約110%。
投資富蘭克林坦伯頓成長基金，56年增值764倍
1954年成立的富蘭克林坦伯頓成長基金，長期報酬率驚人，當年投資坦伯頓爵士的受益人，基金抱到2010年底為止，累積報酬達76,424%。也就是當年若投入1萬元新台幣，現在可以滾成764萬，年平均報酬率約12%。
投資巴菲特的波克夏公司，48年增值28,000倍
1962年，股神巴菲特（Warren Buffett）成立一家投資公司（波克夏前身），資本額720萬美元，其中100萬美元屬他個人持有。現在，巴菲特手中持有的波克夏 （Berkshire Hathaway，NYSE：BRKA，NYSE：BRKB）股票市值高達280億美元（統計至2011.01.17），漲幅高達2萬8,000倍，平均 年報酬率超過23％。
買台塑股票，46年增值11,680倍
經營之神王永慶創辦的台塑公司（1301）1964年股票掛牌，當年資本額500萬元，如今市值約584億元。如果你在那時買進1張台塑股票，抱到現在（截至2011.01.18），這張股票市值將上漲1萬1,680倍，年平均報酬率超過22%。
買進蘋果股票，14年漲95倍
蘋果（Apple Inc. US-AAPL）創辦人賈伯斯（Steven Jobs）1996年重新接掌，當時每股股價一度跌到只剩3.6美元，現在股價則漲到348美元（截至2011.01.14），如果當時買進抱到現在，股價漲幅將近95倍，年平均報酬率約38%。
買敦化南路順成蛋糕店面，41年增值242倍
不只股票、基金可以賺百倍，位在台北市敦化南路與忠孝東路口的順成蛋糕店面（含1樓與地下室），1969年由順成老闆娘吳楊愛珠以165萬元買下，現在估值約4億元，41年增值了242倍，年平均報酬率約14%。
雪球投資法 穩穩實現發財夢
10萬元滾成1,000萬元，讓你的資產成長100倍！乍聽之下，好像很難。可是，從前面的6個例子看，就像大家想像的「百倍發財夢」一樣，你可以 用股票、基金、房地產、甚至是創業的方式，讓你的資產長大100倍、甚至是1萬倍。但前提是要：挑對標的、方法，還要有夠長的時間去等待。
就像股神巴菲特的格言：人生就像雪球。最重要的是找到濕漉漉的雪，以及一座斜坡夠長的山。」投資工具的報酬率就像「斜坡」，坡度是否夠「長」則是指 時間。雪球（財富）要滾得大，一定要有夠濕的雪，在斜度剛好、長度夠長的山坡上滾動，而且滾動的雪球可能不只一個，挑對環境和方法，同時滾動多個雪球，效 果肯定更大。
落實到執行面，你一定會問：誰是下一個王永慶和巴菲特、讓我們可以長期投資？又要去哪裡找一檔能像富蘭克林坦伯頓成長基金一樣、長期繳出穩定報酬的 好基金？老實說，這樣的好標的真的是可遇不可求，怎麼辦？有沒有其他「滾雪球」的好方法呢？當然有，「濕漉漉的雪」能否滾成夠大的雪球，固然不易判斷。但 是，山坡斜度是否剛好？是否夠長？足以讓雪球滾大，卻是固定的、而且是比較容易判別的。
簡單說，先找到對的「山坡」，接下來，任何標的只要讓它開始滾動，耐心驗證、等待，大概可以預期這個雪球在一定時間後可以滾成多大。一旦發現挑錯了雪球，這堆雪不夠「濕」，只要「山坡」對，咱們還能趕快換標的，從頭來過。
問題是能讓財富滾大100倍的「山坡」哪裡找？答案就在下面這個「複利增值」公式：
由這個公式可以看出，你的財富可以滾成多大？影響因子包括1.本金大小；2.報酬率高低；3.持有時間長短。這3個變數要如何？你可以自己決定。舉 例說，如果拿10萬元本金，年年穩賺18%，要增值100倍、滾出1,000萬，得花28年。如果你覺得18%報酬率的「山坡」太長了，能不能縮短一些？ 當然可以，換成報酬率50%的「山坡」，只要12年就能讓你的百倍增值夢達陣。相反的，如果把報酬率下修為7%，同樣要滾到1,000萬元，則需69年。
除了挑「斜率」不同的「山坡」外，改變本金大小，也是你能決定的。如果把10萬本金提高到100萬元，報酬率維持7%，只需要35年就可以滾到1,000萬元。如果同樣用100萬本金，報酬率再拉高到18%，則達成年限會進一步縮短為14年。
放大本金、挑對標的
就能長抱等著賺時間複利
這樣看來，要讓資產成長100倍，找個斜率夠高的「山坡」，然後再下重本、押大注，達成速度豈不是愈快？可是，這樣做的風險也愈高、愈難掌握。暴起暴跌的報酬率，賺得多、賠得快，當本金開始虧損時，下一次想翻身，就得創造更高額報酬，投資難度更高。
為什麼？看看下面這個例子：小明與小華兩人各拿出本金10萬元投入股市，謹慎保守的小明，每年只想賺18%，個性積極的小華報酬率大起大落，1年可以大賺50%、隔年卻會小賠20%，他們各自用這樣的預設報酬率投資，10年後誰的資產會比較多？
問題是能讓財富滾大100倍的「山坡」哪裡找？答案就在下面這個「複利增值」公式：
▲報酬率愈高，達成百倍發財夢的時間愈短！
放大本金、挑對標的
就能長抱等著賺時間複利
這樣看來，要讓資產成長100倍，找個斜率夠高的「山坡」，然後再下重本、押大注，達成速度豈不是愈快？可是，這樣做的風險也愈高、愈難掌握。暴起暴跌的報酬率，賺得多、賠得快，當本金開始虧損時，下一次想翻身，就得創造更高額報酬，投資難度更高。
為什麼？看看下面這個例子：小明與小華兩人各拿出本金10萬元投入股市，謹慎保守的小明，每年只想賺18%，個性積極的小華報酬率大起大落，1年可以大賺50%、隔年卻會小賠20%，他們各自用這樣的預設報酬率投資，10年後誰的資產會比較多？
從圖2可以明顯看出，保守的小明10年下來累積的資產竟是小華的2倍，為什麼會這樣？這個試算告訴我們3件事：
1.穩健報酬勝過大賺小賠：在資產增值過程中，穩健的報酬率剛開始會輸給「大賺小賠」的賺錢模式，但是，時間拉長，連續10年、年賺18%比起相同時間有一半年度賺50%，其餘年度小賠，將會多賺274%。
2.投資千萬不能賠到本金：即使是「大賺小賠」，都會讓你的滾錢速度變慢。
3.年賺18%的威力真的很大：：這樣的報酬率用複利滾存，5年就可以讓你的資產翻1倍，28年則能讓資產膨脹100倍。看到這裡，順帶一提，你就知道台灣公務員優惠定存利率18%有多迷人了，還好政府做了限制，否則國庫真的會大失血！
搞懂了「複利增值」的公式，再記住顧好本金、不讓投資虧損的原則，找到適合的「山坡」開始滾動「雪球」，讓資產成長100倍真的不會太難。記得，關 鍵條件在：一筆夠大的本金、一個穩健的報酬率、一段夠長的投資時間。落實到執行面，第一步要先用力存錢（盡量將本金擴大）。接著，用對方法挑出報酬率夠穩 的工具，最後，久久長抱（投入時間夠長），經過長時間複利滾存，資產就會像滾雪球般愈滾愈大。
有了以上基礎的觀念後，接下來，就要設法去找報酬率夠穩的投資工具了。要怎麼找？我們找到兩位達人，一位是國營事業員工溫國信，他的月薪從1萬起 跳，用15年時間，靠股票滾存出逾1,000萬的資產，近5年還用「倉儲式」選股法，年年創造逾15%的獲利。他甚至告訴《Smart智富》月刊記者： 「只要用我的方法——本金多、報酬率高、拉長時間，人人都可以是巴菲特。」
另一位則是被譽為「女巴菲特」的基金經理人賽拉‧佐豪森（Thyra Zerhusen），她近10年的基金年化報酬率為9.96%，績效勝過巴菲特的5.43%！賽拉師承價值投資法，但擅用「未來本益比」專挑中型股操作， 賺取倍數獲利。學會他們的方法，「資產增值100倍」將不再是夢，而是一套具體可行的策略！
1.穩健報酬勝過大賺小賠：在資產增值過程中，穩健的報酬率剛開始會輸給「大賺小賠」的賺錢模式，但是，時間拉長，連續10年、年賺18%比起相同時間有一半年度賺50%，其餘年度小賠，將會多賺274%。
2.投資千萬不能賠到本金：即使是「大賺小賠」，都會讓你的滾錢速度變慢。
▲穩健報酬勝過大賺小賠
搞懂了「複利增值」的公式，再記住顧好本金、不讓投資虧損的原則，找到適合的「山坡」開始滾動「雪球」，讓資產成長100倍真的不會太難。記得，關 鍵條件在：一筆夠大的本金、一個穩健的報酬率、一段夠長的投資時間。落實到執行面，第一步要先用力存錢（盡量將本金擴大）。接著，用對方法挑出報酬率夠穩 的工具，最後，久久長抱（投入時間夠長），經過長時間複利滾存，資產就會像滾雪球般愈滾愈大。
有了以上基礎的觀念後，接下來，就要設法去找報酬率夠穩的投資工具了。要怎麼找？我們找到兩位達人，一位是國營事業員工溫國信，他的月薪從1萬起 跳，用15年時間，靠股票滾存出逾1,000萬的資產，近5年還用「倉儲式」選股法，年年創造逾15%的獲利。他甚至告訴《Smart智富》月刊記者： 「只要用我的方法——本金多、報酬率高、拉長時間，人人都可以是巴菲特。」
另一位則是被譽為「女巴菲特」的基金經理人賽拉‧佐豪森（Thyra Zerhusen），她近10年的基金年化報酬率為9.96%，績效勝過巴菲特的5.43%！賽拉師承價值投資法，但擅用「未來本益比」專挑中型股操作， 賺取倍數獲利。學會他們的方法，「資產增值100倍」將不再是夢，而是一套具體可行的策略！
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
當心！美元陷阱
新台幣大貶、黃金暴跌，皆因美元反彈，但它能強多久？
股匯市暴起暴落，美元變成一枝獨秀。但，美元究竟是短多？還是長多？你該緊抱新台幣，衝去買美元，還是逢低撿雜幣？亂世投資，不可不知「影子貨幣」大趨勢。
今年秋天，冷得特別快。
就在歐洲遊客猛打噴嚏的蕭瑟九月，國際資金也受到歐債風暴驚嚇，快速竄逃。股市、匯市、商品市場就像跳波浪舞般，輪番暴起暴落。
歐元區的不定時炸彈，嚇得國際資金從八月底瘋狂湧入瑞士法郎避險。九月六日，瑞士央行出手阻升，逼得國際資金三面流竄：流進市場胃納較小的北歐貨幣、流動性最大的美債市場並拉升美元，部分資金暫時停泊到黃金。
到了9月21日，美國聯準會（Fed）主席柏南奇一句「經濟前景有顯著下滑的風險，」再度挑起市場敏感神經，國際資金從全球股市、新興市場和大宗物資市場撤資，轉入美債，把美國十年期公債殖利率壓至歷史最低點的1.67％、拉動美元繼續上漲。風險意識轉強，連之前停泊在黃金市場的資金都大幅撤資，導致金價暴跌。
9月1日到23日，美國道瓊工業指數下跌6.3％、台股跌掉9.2％。美元指數創半年新高，漲幅達5.4％，歐元則是貶值5.3％，瑞郎在瑞士央行大動作干預下，對美元貶幅高達13.8％，新台幣貶值4.6％。黃金和西德州原油期貨價格都下跌10％。
金融市場暴起暴落，連國際貨幣基金（IMF）都在最新出版的九月份全球經濟展望中強調，「全球經濟正處在一個危險的新階段」。
美元反彈由空轉多？
歐債若利空出盡，漲勢將反轉
在一片不景氣中，只有美元一枝獨秀，其他都烏壓壓。市場出現一個主流聲音：美元再起。
但，美元究竟是短多，還是長多？答案，繫在歐債危機身上。
因為，對歐債危機的悲觀，導致對美元的樂觀，兩者如同翹翹板。而歐債的最大變數，就是希臘約3000億歐元的債務會不會違約？是有秩序的違約？或猛爆性違約？
最遲明年第二季，這波多頭走完
如果是猛爆性，在11月份G20高峰會後，歐盟放手讓希臘違約，富邦金控經濟研究中心資深協理羅瑋解釋，因為歐洲銀行體系準備時間不夠，可能導致金融海嘯時期類似的「市場急凍」效應。以2008年的例子來看，需時約半年才有可能消化。最壞的時候，會落在明年第二季末。
如果是秩序性，G20高峰決定花更長的時間準備、切割，延到明年第一季才讓希臘違約，屆時殺傷力會比較小，金融市場大約一到三個月可以消化完畢。最壞的時候也會落在明年第二季末。
無論G20採取哪種途徑，明年第二季底都將是歐債利空出盡的時刻，亦即，美元這一波多頭，最多走到明年第二季結束。
美元目前聲勢如虹，卻是短多長空。當歐債利空出盡後，美元仍會回到其債台高築、經濟成長率逼近零、美元氾濫的經濟基本面。
◎羅傑斯：美元不是安全避風港
◎比新台幣好賺 外幣達人5秘招
完整精采內文請見《商業週刊》1245期，全省各大便利商店同步販售
就在歐洲遊客猛打噴嚏的蕭瑟九月，國際資金也受到歐債風暴驚嚇，快速竄逃。股市、匯市、商品市場就像跳波浪舞般，輪番暴起暴落。
歐元區的不定時炸彈，嚇得國際資金從八月底瘋狂湧入瑞士法郎避險。九月六日，瑞士央行出手阻升，逼得國際資金三面流竄：流進市場胃納較小的北歐貨幣、流動性最大的美債市場並拉升美元，部分資金暫時停泊到黃金。
到了9月21日，美國聯準會（Fed）主席柏南奇一句「經濟前景有顯著下滑的風險，」再度挑起市場敏感神經，國際資金從全球股市、新興市場和大宗物資市場撤資，轉入美債，把美國十年期公債殖利率壓至歷史最低點的1.67％、拉動美元繼續上漲。風險意識轉強，連之前停泊在黃金市場的資金都大幅撤資，導致金價暴跌。
9月1日到23日，美國道瓊工業指數下跌6.3％、台股跌掉9.2％。美元指數創半年新高，漲幅達5.4％，歐元則是貶值5.3％，瑞郎在瑞士央行大動作干預下，對美元貶幅高達13.8％，新台幣貶值4.6％。黃金和西德州原油期貨價格都下跌10％。
金融市場暴起暴落，連國際貨幣基金（IMF）都在最新出版的九月份全球經濟展望中強調，「全球經濟正處在一個危險的新階段」。
美元反彈由空轉多？
歐債若利空出盡，漲勢將反轉
在一片不景氣中，只有美元一枝獨秀，其他都烏壓壓。市場出現一個主流聲音：美元再起。
但，美元究竟是短多，還是長多？答案，繫在歐債危機身上。
因為，對歐債危機的悲觀，導致對美元的樂觀，兩者如同翹翹板。而歐債的最大變數，就是希臘約3000億歐元的債務會不會違約？是有秩序的違約？或猛爆性違約？
最遲明年第二季，這波多頭走完
如果是猛爆性，在11月份G20高峰會後，歐盟放手讓希臘違約，富邦金控經濟研究中心資深協理羅瑋解釋，因為歐洲銀行體系準備時間不夠，可能導致金融海嘯時期類似的「市場急凍」效應。以2008年的例子來看，需時約半年才有可能消化。最壞的時候，會落在明年第二季末。
如果是秩序性，G20高峰決定花更長的時間準備、切割，延到明年第一季才讓希臘違約，屆時殺傷力會比較小，金融市場大約一到三個月可以消化完畢。最壞的時候也會落在明年第二季末。
無論G20採取哪種途徑，明年第二季底都將是歐債利空出盡的時刻，亦即，美元這一波多頭，最多走到明年第二季結束。
美元目前聲勢如虹，卻是短多長空。當歐債利空出盡後，美元仍會回到其債台高築、經濟成長率逼近零、美元氾濫的經濟基本面。
◎羅傑斯：美元不是安全避風港
◎比新台幣好賺 外幣達人5秘招
完整精采內文請見《商業週刊》1245期，全省各大便利商店同步販售
Monday, September 26, 2011
Telcos fared well in recent selldown
With investors scrambling in the selloff amid rising uncertainties in global financial markets, stock yields are holding up comparatively well. Telecommunications in particular is widely seen as one of the most defensive sectors to invest in currently. Revenue for telcos is expected to be fairly resilient even in the face of weaker consumer spending as confidence wanes. Indeed, given our lifestyles today, telco services are more a necessity than discretionary spending. This translates into sustainable cash flow and dividend payouts. Despite the continuous capital spending requirements, free cash flow generated from telco operations remains by and large robust. Thus, most telcos maintain a generous dividend payout. Even if expectations for growth and capital appreciation are limited, investors seek out these stocks for their higher than market average yields. Keeping a portion of a diversified portfolio in high-yielding stocks may not be a bad strategy, especially in the near to medium term, until there are clearer indications on the market direction going into 2012. It is hard to predict when the global economy and asset prices will turn around after the current volatility subsides. Holding cash generates zero returns while bank deposit rates are historically low. DiGi and Maxis shares have outperformed If historical performance is any guide, DiGi.Com Bhd and Maxis Bhd’s shares have outperformed the FBM KLCI, the benchmark index for the local bourse, year-to-date. DiGi’s stock has done particularly well. Even though the company’s 2011/12 earnings will be hit by accelerated depreciation charges, its underlying business is faring well in a highly competitive environment. The company registered the strongest subscriber growth in 1H11 among the big three mobile operators, that include Maxis and Celcom Bhd, albeit from the smallest base. Revenue for the first six months was up 10.4% year-on-year (y-o-y), well above the industry average of 3%. DiGi is upbeat that it can maintain a high single digit pace of growth for the full-year. The solid top line growth and economies of scale bolstered operating margins. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) margin averaged 45.9% in 1H11, up from the average operating margin of 44.4% in 2010. The company intends to improve its profitability further through a combination of market share gain, cost savings and improved network efficiency. These include savings on operational expenditure and capital expenditure from its ongoing collaboration with Celcom, to consolidate and upgrade their telecommunication sites and transmission network.  Maxis’ earnings likely to remain flattish in 2011/12 Maxis had the slowest subscriber addition in 2QFY11, by just 13,000. The total subscriber count was distorted in 1QFY11 due to a tightening of its definition of an active user. Nonetheless, the company remains the largest mobile operator in the country with 12.76 million subscribers or about 38% of the market.  Total revenue for 1HFY11 contracted by 1.2% y-o-y. This is due primarily to the company’s decision to scale back operations at the low margin international gateway unit. Excluding contributions from international gateway, Maxis’ revenue grew, but by a rather pedestrian 1.5% y-o-y. Net profit was up some 0.6% over the same period. We expect earnings to contract slightly for 2011/12, after taking into account the higher costs to be incurred with the company’s entry into  the high-speed home broadband market segment, in 2HFY11. Recall that Maxis signed a 10-year agreement for wholesale high-speed broadband (HSBB) services from Telekom Malaysia Bhd late last year. This would give it instant access to a potential market of 1.1 million households by end-2011 and 1.3 million by next year on top of its own fibre network, primarily to multi-dwelling units. Home broadband services will be loss-making in the initial years Maxis singled out high-speed home broadband services as one of the key growth drivers over the longer term. While competition will be intense with Streamyx, P1, Unifi and new entrant, Celcom, jostling for market share, there is growing demand for faster broadband. The most efficient delivery channel for HSBB content is through the fibre network. In addition to “plain vanilla” Internet access, Maxis is aiming to offer a range of value added services, including VoIP, IPTV, video-on-demand and so on. In this respect, the company has the upper hand. It can piggyback on sister company Astro All Asia Networks plc’s already expansive content. Nevertheless, the home services business will be loss-making for several years, until the subscriber base hits the estimated breakeven point of one million. For now, growth from mobile Internet and mobile broadband will have to pick up the slack from declining voice revenue. Maxis expects to maintain 40 sen per share dividends On balance, capital gains for Maxis over the next two years may be limited. But high dividend payout will provide support to its share price and capital preservation for investors. We estimate dividends to remain at last year’s level of 40 sen per share, giving shareholders an attractive net yield of 7.5%. Further growth in total industry subscribers will taper off with penetration rate having exceeded 100% of population. But the slight uptick in average revenue per user (ARPU) in 2QFY11 for Maxis bodes well. The increasing proliferation and gradual migration towards smartphones, which typically come bundled with higher value voice-cum-data plans, should help stabilise, and may even reverse, the downtrend in ARPU. DiGi may raise payout with second capital management exercise in 2012 Assuming 100% profit payout plus the recently proposed capital repayment of RM509 million, dividends for DiGi are estimated to total about RM3.44 per share for 2011/12. If distributed equally over the two years, shareholders will earn net yields of 5.7% per year. Although this is lower than the expected yield from Maxis, DiGi’s outlook for capital gains is better, taking into account the company’s current pace of growth and strategies put in place for margin improvements. Plus, management has hinted at a second capital management exercise. DiGi has a much stronger balance sheet with gearing of just 5% as at end-June 2011, compared with Maxis’ 53%. That leaves it with more room to return excess cash to shareholders. Some market observers speculate that up to 89 sen per share worth of future capital distribution is possible based on the company’s current balance sheet. DiGi recently proposed a one-to-10 share split, which is expected to be completed by 4QFY11. Although the move will have no impact on earnings, the lower adjusted share price will make the stock more affordable, especially to retail investors. Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, September 23, 2011. | ||||
Thursday, September 8, 2011
三大師 唱衰全球經濟
更新日期:
紐約大學教授羅比尼表示，隨著全球經濟減速，新一波金融危機可能比提前降臨。投資大戶索羅斯警告歐債危機可能比雷曼兄弟倒閉的後果更嚴重；太平洋投資管理公司（PIMCO）葛洛斯對前景也不太樂觀。
「末日博士」羅比尼6日在倫敦受訪時表示：「幾個月前我預測全球經濟的『完美風暴』在2013年降臨，如今美國、歐元區和英國經濟提前趨緩，二次衰退可能提前來臨。」
羅比尼預測，最先進經濟體陷入衰退的可能性為60%，主要因他們提供政策刺激的能力已經所剩無幾。他說：「短期內我們需要大規模的刺激，否則會出現另一次大蕭條。情況愈來愈糟，當今和幾年前最大的不同是政策選項幾乎用罄。」
羅比尼說，為了讓歐元區重拾眼前和未來所需的成長，歐洲央行8日應暗示降息，一改春季升息的作法。他並認為歐洲金融穩定機制（EFSF）應該應用在全歐境內類似「問題資產救助計畫（TARP）」的情況，藉此支撐所有與融資問題奮戰的歐洲銀行。
索羅斯警告說：「歐債危機的後果可能遠比2008年雷曼兄弟倒閉更嚴重，因為歐元區缺乏一個泛歐洲的行政機關處理這麼嚴重的銀行危機。」
索羅斯認為歐洲需要一場危機創造政治意願，來創立這一類的行政單位。
葛洛斯在「直升機柏南克恐摧毀信用創造」一文中指出，如果聯準會主席柏南克一如某些人預期地壓低利率，可能導致更長期的信用下滑。
2011/09/08 06:55編譯余曉惠／綜合外電
紐約大學教授羅比尼表示，隨著全球經濟減速，新一波金融危機可能比提前降臨。投資大戶索羅斯警告歐債危機可能比雷曼兄弟倒閉的後果更嚴重；太平洋投資管理公司（PIMCO）葛洛斯對前景也不太樂觀。
「末日博士」羅比尼6日在倫敦受訪時表示：「幾個月前我預測全球經濟的『完美風暴』在2013年降臨，如今美國、歐元區和英國經濟提前趨緩，二次衰退可能提前來臨。」
羅比尼預測，最先進經濟體陷入衰退的可能性為60%，主要因他們提供政策刺激的能力已經所剩無幾。他說：「短期內我們需要大規模的刺激，否則會出現另一次大蕭條。情況愈來愈糟，當今和幾年前最大的不同是政策選項幾乎用罄。」
羅比尼說，為了讓歐元區重拾眼前和未來所需的成長，歐洲央行8日應暗示降息，一改春季升息的作法。他並認為歐洲金融穩定機制（EFSF）應該應用在全歐境內類似「問題資產救助計畫（TARP）」的情況，藉此支撐所有與融資問題奮戰的歐洲銀行。
索羅斯警告說：「歐債危機的後果可能遠比2008年雷曼兄弟倒閉更嚴重，因為歐元區缺乏一個泛歐洲的行政機關處理這麼嚴重的銀行危機。」
索羅斯認為歐洲需要一場危機創造政治意願，來創立這一類的行政單位。
葛洛斯在「直升機柏南克恐摧毀信用創造」一文中指出，如果聯準會主席柏南克一如某些人預期地壓低利率，可能導致更長期的信用下滑。
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
一份GDP修正報告，讓美股跌回起漲區
Smart智富月刊第157期 2011-08-29
美股8月重挫的禍首到底是誰？是歐債、美債、還是大家擔心全球經濟會二次衰退？仔細比對所有總體經濟數據，以上3項可能都不是，禍首應該是美國商務部7月28日公布的國內生產 毛額（GDP）修正報告！
現狀：修正報告洩漏基本面真相，美股漲多修正
新公布的GDP修正報告將美國從2003年到2011年第2季為止的GDP數據做了全面性修正，其中，關鍵影響是2008～2009年（金融海嘯期 間）的經濟衰退比舊有數據嚴重許多。以年度看，原本2007～2010年前後4年的GDP年均成長率為0.1%，現在變成-0.3%，意思是原數據顯示這 4年美國經濟平均下來是零成長，現在卻變成是負成長。
更要命的是，從絕對金額看，按照原數據，美國GDP總和在2010年第3季已經越過海嘯前高點，民間消費則早在2010年第2季就超越前高。可是，新數據卻顯示民間消費延後兩季、到去年第4季才越過海嘯前高點，GDP總和則是到目前為止都未越過海嘯前高點。
這個調整為什麼衝擊股市？以德國投資大師科斯托蘭尼的「主人與狗」論來分析最清楚：「主人」代表經濟基本面，「狗」則是股市行情，狗常會跑在主人之前，意指股市反映基本面利多可能超漲。距離一旦過遠，狗又會回頭找主人，即股市超漲後會回跌，以符合基本面實況。
以美國情況看，舊數據既然顯示美國GDP在去年第3季已超越海嘯前高點，加上美國聯準會（Fed）去年8月宣布實施第二次量化寬鬆政策（QE2）， 股市反映基本面數據、加上資金面利多，美股果然從去年9月起漲。如今，新數據告訴大家基本面根本沒那麼好，行情當然應該跌回去年第3季的起漲區。
對照美股這波大跌，確實跌到去年第3季的起漲區後，跌勢即告趨緩。至於行情能否守穩此區間？關鍵就看後續每季公布的GDP數據是否繼續往上，還是如市場目前擔心的會彎頭下滑。
未來：3數據證明景氣緩步復甦
對於未來美國經濟的預測， 美國聯準會成員、費城聯邦銀行行長普拉瑟（Charles Plosser）8月下旬接受電台訪問時即指出，聯準會8月9日會議中對經濟的描繪太負面（excessively negative），他寧願等到下個月（指9月），看看下半年經濟復甦預期是否會成為現實。按他的說法，美國經濟其實不如外界想像的糟，聯準會先前因為經 濟不如預期，就決定未來兩年都將維持目前超低利率的做法，其實是太急了。
普拉瑟為什麼對美國經濟復甦比較樂觀？因為從下面3項最新的美國總經數據看，景氣仍在緩步復甦，並未見到所謂的「二次衰退」：
1. 美國零售銷售仍舊亮眼
7月份零售月增率為0.5%，年增率則為8.5%，均超越市場預期，顯示美國民間消費並未看淡。特別是先前因日本大地震造成零件供應斷鏈的汽車銷售，7月已明顯回溫，未來幾季可望持續增長。如果美國民間消費動能維持不墜，將是經濟增長的最大基石。
2.油品進口大減可望刺激民生消費
6月代表美國內需的進口額比上月減少18億美元，細究其項目，原來是油價6月明顯下滑，使得石油製品和原 油進口金額大減，光是這兩項減幅就達15億6,000萬美元。不過，油品相關進口縮減占大宗，表示其他消費和投資需求並未明顯減少。7月下旬起油價跌更 凶，美國人的用油花費預估可以再減少，因此若能刺激其他民生消費增長，對提振美國內需反而是利多。
3. 失業狀況持續改善
至於外界最擔心的美國失業狀況，7月非農業就業人口增加數創3個月新高，連同5、6月都聯袂上修，總共新增5萬 7,000人，最難能可貴的是新增就業全部來自民間部門，因政府部門同期間是裁減3萬7,000人，已連續9個月下滑。在景氣如此惡劣的情況下，民間部門 僱用員工還能增加。搭配個人所得未來若能進一步走高，美國民間消費年底前實在不必太過悲觀。
對於未來美國經濟的預測， 美國聯準會成員、費城聯邦銀行行長普拉瑟（Charles Plosser）8月下旬接受電台訪問時即指出，聯準會8月9日會議中對經濟的描繪太負面（excessively negative），他寧願等到下個月（指9月），看看下半年經濟復甦預期是否會成為現實。按他的說法，美國經濟其實不如外界想像的糟，聯準會先前因為經 濟不如預期，就決定未來兩年都將維持目前超低利率的做法，其實是太急了。
普拉瑟為什麼對美國經濟復甦比較樂觀？因為從下面3項最新的美國總經數據看，景氣仍在緩步復甦，並未見到所謂的「二次衰退」：
1. 美國零售銷售仍舊亮眼
7月份零售月增率為0.5%，年增率則為8.5%，均超越市場預期，顯示美國民間消費並未看淡。特別是先前因日本大地震造成零件供應斷鏈的汽車銷售，7月已明顯回溫，未來幾季可望持續增長。如果美國民間消費動能維持不墜，將是經濟增長的最大基石。
2.油品進口大減可望刺激民生消費
6月代表美國內需的進口額比上月減少18億美元，細究其項目，原來是油價6月明顯下滑，使得石油製品和原 油進口金額大減，光是這兩項減幅就達15億6,000萬美元。不過，油品相關進口縮減占大宗，表示其他消費和投資需求並未明顯減少。7月下旬起油價跌更 凶，美國人的用油花費預估可以再減少，因此若能刺激其他民生消費增長，對提振美國內需反而是利多。
3. 失業狀況持續改善
至於外界最擔心的美國失業狀況，7月非農業就業人口增加數創3個月新高，連同5、6月都聯袂上修，總共新增5萬 7,000人，最難能可貴的是新增就業全部來自民間部門，因政府部門同期間是裁減3萬7,000人，已連續9個月下滑。在景氣如此惡劣的情況下，民間部門 僱用員工還能增加。搭配個人所得未來若能進一步走高，美國民間消費年底前實在不必太過悲觀。
▲美國非農就業人口已止跌回升
選股比擇時重要
撰文者：朱紀中
常有朋友問道：「現在可以進場嗎？」不論買股票、或基金。老實說，我根本不知從何答起。因為第1、不知他的資金狀況，到底是有多少錢？這些錢是否為 閒錢？第2、不知他的目標，是想存退休金，還是套牢想翻本？最後，也是最重要的一點：我又不是神！連明天台北股市的漲跌都無法預測，如何能預測其他市場、 或是商品未來3個月、半年或是1年的漲跌？簡單一句話，投資若論「擇時」，真是太難了。
雖然我認識一、兩位長輩，征戰投資市場20、30年，他們常能用豐富的操盤經驗、對景氣的敏銳觀察，近乎精準地抓到行情轉折點。但是，他們畢竟不是 神，不是每次都準。我也不好意思天天如影隨形地跟在這些高人身邊，只為了知道要買、要抱、還是要賣。相對的，如果你問我：「有什麼好標的可以買？」我可能 比較會有答案，至少可以找到較多朋友問到一些「迷人」的標的。例如，今年初，拜訪一位從事代客操作的基金經理人，他有超過20年的投資經驗，他建議我去買 1檔被低估的汽車股，我一週後買進，沒多久因為歐債危機造成股市回檔，一度賠了11%，但長抱半年賣掉，賺逾40%。
這個經驗讓我確信：選股絕對比擇時重要！至於報我買股的高手，是本期封面故事中的一位主角——首華投顧總經理黃慶和。除了他，主筆呂郁青還為大家找了幾位高手，要教大家如何選股，好在股災過後，好好賺一波！
雖然我認識一、兩位長輩，征戰投資市場20、30年，他們常能用豐富的操盤經驗、對景氣的敏銳觀察，近乎精準地抓到行情轉折點。但是，他們畢竟不是 神，不是每次都準。我也不好意思天天如影隨形地跟在這些高人身邊，只為了知道要買、要抱、還是要賣。相對的，如果你問我：「有什麼好標的可以買？」我可能 比較會有答案，至少可以找到較多朋友問到一些「迷人」的標的。例如，今年初，拜訪一位從事代客操作的基金經理人，他有超過20年的投資經驗，他建議我去買 1檔被低估的汽車股，我一週後買進，沒多久因為歐債危機造成股市回檔，一度賠了11%，但長抱半年賣掉，賺逾40%。
這個經驗讓我確信：選股絕對比擇時重要！至於報我買股的高手，是本期封面故事中的一位主角——首華投顧總經理黃慶和。除了他，主筆呂郁青還為大家找了幾位高手，要教大家如何選股，好在股災過後，好好賺一波！
Friday, August 26, 2011
商業周刊-封面摘要-金融海嘯會捲土重來嗎？
Q1.這次全球股災主因是什麼？
A：這次股災發生的主因，在於政府或中央銀行刺激經濟無力，引起投資人對經濟悲觀。對比歷次的股災中，和目前情況最接近的就是日本在90年代的大泡沫結束後的大崩盤。
根據淡江大學產業經濟系教授莊孟翰的研究，1989年時日本住宅用地最高價-東京千代田區，1200萬日元/平方公尺，當時匯價約9萬美元/平方公尺（約新臺幣每坪981.8萬元）。將近一千萬元新台幣才買到一坪土地，在這樣瘋狂的泡沫行情下，終於導致日後日本經濟重創。
同年12月底，東京股市日經二二五指數收盤3萬8915點收盤之新高紀錄，但隨後房市泡沫，日本陷入長達22年經濟蕭條，從1991年到至2005年，日本六大城市住宅用地價格平均下跌六成五，商用土地價格暴跌八成七，而日經二二五指數截至今年8月19日收盤指數為8719點。
但日本經濟的走勢是否是唯一可能劇本？答案也不盡然，因為以香港1997年房地產泡沫後來看，莊孟翰研究後發現，1997年前六年內香港房地產及相關產業之增加值占香港GDP之四成，光是房地產泡沫和股市泡沫製造了七兆港元的「額外財富」，但之後房價一路下跌，至2003年SARS期間，房價跌幅從高點往下算已經損失六成五，房地產和股市總市值共損失約八兆港元，比同期香港的生產總值還多。
歷經金融海嘯後，今年上半年也曾達到2萬3000點附近，截至八月十九日收盤在1萬9399點，依照高於當初1997年時的高點。
日本、香港是典型在泡沫後股市重挫六成以上，房地產也大幅修正，但結局是香港有再起，日本則趴地不起；尤其在政府不斷刺激下仍然找不到藥方，以這次歐美在持續貨幣寬鬆下振興經濟卻相當有限，這正是此次股災要特別提防的地方。
Q2.本次股市災難與過去有何不同?
A：對比過去股災發生經驗，本次股災有兩點不同。
首先，利率條件不同：過去股災發生原因多半與高利率有關，不論是1987年惡性通膨、1998年亞洲金融風暴、2000年科技泡沫、2008年金融海嘯，當時的利率水平都並非眼前低利率；上述幾次股災發生前的利率水準最低也有5.25%，最高還曾高達17%。但美國聯準會已經宣布近乎零的利率政策將維持維持兩年，最快要到2013年中才有可能調整。
其次，企業庫存問題不嚴重。對比1990年、2000年、2008年三次股災發生前的企業界表現，都出現庫存甚高情況。根據美國聯準會統計，三次企業庫存銷售比(Inventory to Sales Ratio)都起碼高達1.44以上，數據越高表示庫存越多，銷售越少，但眼前美國企業庫存銷售比才1.28，接近2006當時水準，而今年第一季景氣最佳時，庫存銷售比也僅1.25，換言之並非庫存壓力拖垮經濟。
◎倒閉和裁員潮會出現嗎？
◎投資全被套牢怎麼辦？
◎矽谷最令人害怕的人 專利軍火頭子
完整精采內文請見《商業周刊》1240期，全省各大便利商店同步販售
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
45%受訪民眾賠錢捨不得停損 被套牢 加碼攤平就好？
撰文者：林雅惠 2011-08-01
根據《Smart智富》月刊與雅虎奇摩理財網合作的調查「投資賠錢了，你怎麼做？」結果顯示，今年以來「賺少賠多」與「全部都賠」的投資人合計約7成，無怪乎投資人在網上悲嘆：「還會不會再跌？現在到底該不該出場？」、「不是說有選前行情嗎？」
討論歸討論，真正認賠停損的投資人，卻屬少數，調查顯示，當投資人賠錢時，有高達45%抱持「總有一天價格會回來」的態度。
「這是標準的鴕鳥心態，很要不得。」政大金融系教授殷乃平說，面對投資虧損，很多人以為置之不理就有機會「起死回生」，事實上，若投資標的不在對的產業前景上，怎麼樣也不可能回到原來的投資價位。不如坦承投資失敗，認賠出場，以免血本無歸。
投資人不僅捨不得停損，更有高達56%的投資人會在套牢時選擇加碼攤平，絲毫不怕愈攤愈貧。
處理虧損要當機立斷
才是長期賺錢關鍵
.為什麼停損這麼難？財務行為學界曾經根據此現象研究投資人的心理，提出「前景理論」，亦即「投資100萬元，上半年賺50%，下半年卻虧了50%，投資人只會記得賠，不會記得賺的經驗。」
也就是說，賠1塊錢的痛苦，勝過賺1塊錢的快樂，因此多數投資人傾向「避賠」，寧願套牢當鴕鳥，也不甘心停損。
不過，投資高手們都知道，正確處理賠錢的投資，才是長期賺錢的關鍵。以投資大師索羅斯為例，他在1987年錯估情勢，大手筆放空日本，結果日本市場反而走高，他當機立斷出場，原則即是：「先求存活再求致富」，如果這次連本都虧光了，下一次又怎麼可能有機會賺錢？
「很多人住進套房以後就不敢動，結果資產永遠是負的，翻不了身。一定要學會如何判斷接下來的情勢，採取行動，才有機會打敗負資產的局面。」張翠玲說。
究竟該怎麼處理賠錢投資才是正確的方法？立即停損？或是有限度的加碼攤平？以下為《Smart智富》月刊根據台股投資達人艾力克斯、施羅德投信副總張翠玲以及殷乃平等專家，綜合歸納出3個方法，下一次當你股票套牢時，可以作為參考。
【達人教戰】投資停損3心法，打敗負資產
施羅德投信副總－張翠玲、政大金融系教授－殷乃平、台股投資達人－艾力克斯
心法1》不要硬拗，看錯就要先認錯
投資套牢了，如果堅定市場是錯的，自己才是對的，那你注定是輸家，賠錢第一課就是「不要跟市場爭辯」，下跌一定有下跌的道理，先檢討自己為什麼買到賠錢的 投資。以股票為例，當初是否聽信名嘴搶進「明牌」？如果真的聽信明牌買進，現在賠了，那就乾脆出場吧！因為當初糊裡糊塗地買，賠的時候也會是糊裡糊塗地 賠，不如當下認賠殺出，不要再硬拗，以免愈賠愈多，也當做花錢買經驗。
心法2》有前景的投資才可續抱或攤平
如果股票下跌是因為大盤整體表現不好，或是某個有前景國家的基金是因為世界總經表現不好，或遇上金融風暴而下跌，這表示挑錯買點，或是運氣不佳，而自己的投資標的本質還不錯，那麼或可以續抱，或採取有限度的定期定額攤平法。
艾力克斯建議，投資一定要勤做功課，「賺要知道自己為什麼賺，賠也要知道賠的原因在哪。」以投資股票為例，他建議定期要記錄：
1.個股的營收、獲利、毛利
2.大盤相對位置
3.總體經濟變化，包括景氣燈號、利率走勢
4.選舉等非經濟因素
「從這些因素可判斷這個產業及個股的優勢還在不在？若還是有優勢，那就續抱，等大環境轉好，總有一天可以回本；若是沒有前景，趕快出場，不要再賠下去了。」艾力克斯說。
張翠玲建議，若評估還有前景，可再額外加碼，以基金來說，用定期定額來攤平成本是一個不錯的長期穩健投資術。「假設當初用100元買1單位，現在跌了，100元可以買到3個單位，這樣成本愈拉愈低，當市場反轉向上的時候，翻身的機會也比較大。」
心法3》垃圾不會變黃金，利用低檔轉換到有前景的標的
不論是股票或基金，當理性評估過後，發現該股、該產業、或該國經濟沒有前景，就要趁早認賠，把變現的錢拿去投資具備潛力的標的。特別是市場整體大跌時，此 時好、壞標的一起跌，但接下來，好標的會出頭，沒前景的標的會繼續沉淪，所以當市場全面性重挫時，一定要重新檢視是否需要轉換投資標的。
艾力克斯舉例，像印度等標的，當初買進的優勢在於勞力成本低以及強大的內需市場，但現在面臨通貨膨脹以及工資上漲的壓力，續抱的動力就沒那麼強了。
俗話說：「進廚房，就不要怕熱」，同樣的，「敢投資就不要怕虧損」，如果能在每一次的失敗經驗裡聽取教訓，就能奠定下一次成功的基礎。
根據《Smart智富》月刊與雅虎奇摩理財網合作的調查「投資賠錢了，你怎麼做？」結果顯示，今年以來「賺少賠多」與「全部都賠」的投資人合計約7成，無怪乎投資人在網上悲嘆：「還會不會再跌？現在到底該不該出場？」、「不是說有選前行情嗎？」
討論歸討論，真正認賠停損的投資人，卻屬少數，調查顯示，當投資人賠錢時，有高達45%抱持「總有一天價格會回來」的態度。
「這是標準的鴕鳥心態，很要不得。」政大金融系教授殷乃平說，面對投資虧損，很多人以為置之不理就有機會「起死回生」，事實上，若投資標的不在對的產業前景上，怎麼樣也不可能回到原來的投資價位。不如坦承投資失敗，認賠出場，以免血本無歸。
投資人不僅捨不得停損，更有高達56%的投資人會在套牢時選擇加碼攤平，絲毫不怕愈攤愈貧。
處理虧損要當機立斷
才是長期賺錢關鍵
.為什麼停損這麼難？財務行為學界曾經根據此現象研究投資人的心理，提出「前景理論」，亦即「投資100萬元，上半年賺50%，下半年卻虧了50%，投資人只會記得賠，不會記得賺的經驗。」
也就是說，賠1塊錢的痛苦，勝過賺1塊錢的快樂，因此多數投資人傾向「避賠」，寧願套牢當鴕鳥，也不甘心停損。
不過，投資高手們都知道，正確處理賠錢的投資，才是長期賺錢的關鍵。以投資大師索羅斯為例，他在1987年錯估情勢，大手筆放空日本，結果日本市場反而走高，他當機立斷出場，原則即是：「先求存活再求致富」，如果這次連本都虧光了，下一次又怎麼可能有機會賺錢？
「很多人住進套房以後就不敢動，結果資產永遠是負的，翻不了身。一定要學會如何判斷接下來的情勢，採取行動，才有機會打敗負資產的局面。」張翠玲說。
究竟該怎麼處理賠錢投資才是正確的方法？立即停損？或是有限度的加碼攤平？以下為《Smart智富》月刊根據台股投資達人艾力克斯、施羅德投信副總張翠玲以及殷乃平等專家，綜合歸納出3個方法，下一次當你股票套牢時，可以作為參考。
【達人教戰】投資停損3心法，打敗負資產
施羅德投信副總－張翠玲、政大金融系教授－殷乃平、台股投資達人－艾力克斯
心法1》不要硬拗，看錯就要先認錯
投資套牢了，如果堅定市場是錯的，自己才是對的，那你注定是輸家，賠錢第一課就是「不要跟市場爭辯」，下跌一定有下跌的道理，先檢討自己為什麼買到賠錢的 投資。以股票為例，當初是否聽信名嘴搶進「明牌」？如果真的聽信明牌買進，現在賠了，那就乾脆出場吧！因為當初糊裡糊塗地買，賠的時候也會是糊裡糊塗地 賠，不如當下認賠殺出，不要再硬拗，以免愈賠愈多，也當做花錢買經驗。
心法2》有前景的投資才可續抱或攤平
如果股票下跌是因為大盤整體表現不好，或是某個有前景國家的基金是因為世界總經表現不好，或遇上金融風暴而下跌，這表示挑錯買點，或是運氣不佳，而自己的投資標的本質還不錯，那麼或可以續抱，或採取有限度的定期定額攤平法。
艾力克斯建議，投資一定要勤做功課，「賺要知道自己為什麼賺，賠也要知道賠的原因在哪。」以投資股票為例，他建議定期要記錄：
1.個股的營收、獲利、毛利
2.大盤相對位置
3.總體經濟變化，包括景氣燈號、利率走勢
4.選舉等非經濟因素
「從這些因素可判斷這個產業及個股的優勢還在不在？若還是有優勢，那就續抱，等大環境轉好，總有一天可以回本；若是沒有前景，趕快出場，不要再賠下去了。」艾力克斯說。
張翠玲建議，若評估還有前景，可再額外加碼，以基金來說，用定期定額來攤平成本是一個不錯的長期穩健投資術。「假設當初用100元買1單位，現在跌了，100元可以買到3個單位，這樣成本愈拉愈低，當市場反轉向上的時候，翻身的機會也比較大。」
心法3》垃圾不會變黃金，利用低檔轉換到有前景的標的
不論是股票或基金，當理性評估過後，發現該股、該產業、或該國經濟沒有前景，就要趁早認賠，把變現的錢拿去投資具備潛力的標的。特別是市場整體大跌時，此 時好、壞標的一起跌，但接下來，好標的會出頭，沒前景的標的會繼續沉淪，所以當市場全面性重挫時，一定要重新檢視是否需要轉換投資標的。
艾力克斯舉例，像印度等標的，當初買進的優勢在於勞力成本低以及強大的內需市場，但現在面臨通貨膨脹以及工資上漲的壓力，續抱的動力就沒那麼強了。
俗話說：「進廚房，就不要怕熱」，同樣的，「敢投資就不要怕虧損」，如果能在每一次的失敗經驗裡聽取教訓，就能奠定下一次成功的基礎。
Monday, August 22, 2011
商業周刊-專欄部落格-大師開講-歐債危機的三個結局
純粹央行主義者現在糊塗了。為什麼歐洲央行能夠購買其17個成員國中的5個國家的政府債券呢？這個貨幣當局做起事來怎麼像是財政機構？歐洲央行不是應該具有政治上的獨立性、操作上的自主性，以對抗通膨、捍衛歐元的使命嗎？
呃，可以說是，也可以說不是。這個答案道出了現代央行（或者更準確的說，是後危機時代在債務宿醉和主權債務憂慮中苦苦掙扎的央行）令人不安的現狀。我們也可以從中一窺狼藉茫然的歐元區亂象將如何收尾。
我們可以用一個海洋救援的比方來簡化這一複雜情形。想像一下，一艘非常靈活的海岸警衛隊快艇接到命令，前去救援一艘遇險船隻。隨著救援工作的展開，快艇發現自己同時還得救援另外兩艘更大的船隻。它這樣做了，但其船長並未得到保證會有更大的救援船前來支援。
歐洲央行如小型快艇 卻得救將沉的歐洲大船
救援快艇上的船員疲憊不堪，需要喘口氣，但他們還得應付焦躁不安的乘客。隨著風浪越來越大，靈活的救援快艇也快不堪負荷了。一些船員開始懷疑船長，而船長再次籲請大船前來支援。不幸的是，由於對任務理解不當、以及情況缺乏緊迫性，這艘大船遲遲沒有前來。
最好的希望是大船到來，困難解除。最大的擔憂是大船來不了。果真如此的話，問題就變成掙扎中的救援船上的船員，是否自認他們可以把情況穩定下來。而他們的唯一方法是一套以前無法想像的方案——把一些人拋下船，減輕救援艇負擔，救援剩下的乘客。
這就是歐洲央行當前所處的境況。
其結果具有高度不確定性，而且會引發一連串後果——不僅僅是對歐洲，也是對全球經濟。全球經濟正處於一場同步衰退中，拜美國最近的債務上限危機和恥辱性的失去AAA主權債務評級事件所賜，世界經濟之錨受到了極大損壞，這給全球經濟帶來了巨大麻煩。
歐洲央行已經購買了近1000億歐元的周邊國家國債，而且承諾將繼續大手筆買進。較少受到關注的是，歐洲央行還把所謂的「回購操作」（repo operations）規模擴大了好幾倍，通過回購操作，歐洲央行將歐元注入到受困銀行中，「暫時」交換這些銀行資產負債表上的國債，且「隨時可以逆操作」。
顯然，在2009年，歐洲央行並沒有發出可能引起爭議的警告——希臘已破產而不僅僅是失去了流動性。我自己的感覺是歐洲央行此舉並非不能，而是不為，因為它擔心這樣會對歐元區其他國家造成附帶傷害。歐洲央行選擇了拖延，寄望歐元區最脆弱的成員能夠增強防禦力，抵擋住希臘傳染病的蔓延。
呃，可以說是，也可以說不是。這個答案道出了現代央行（或者更準確的說，是後危機時代在債務宿醉和主權債務憂慮中苦苦掙扎的央行）令人不安的現狀。我們也可以從中一窺狼藉茫然的歐元區亂象將如何收尾。
我們可以用一個海洋救援的比方來簡化這一複雜情形。想像一下，一艘非常靈活的海岸警衛隊快艇接到命令，前去救援一艘遇險船隻。隨著救援工作的展開，快艇發現自己同時還得救援另外兩艘更大的船隻。它這樣做了，但其船長並未得到保證會有更大的救援船前來支援。
歐洲央行如小型快艇 卻得救將沉的歐洲大船
救援快艇上的船員疲憊不堪，需要喘口氣，但他們還得應付焦躁不安的乘客。隨著風浪越來越大，靈活的救援快艇也快不堪負荷了。一些船員開始懷疑船長，而船長再次籲請大船前來支援。不幸的是，由於對任務理解不當、以及情況缺乏緊迫性，這艘大船遲遲沒有前來。
最好的希望是大船到來，困難解除。最大的擔憂是大船來不了。果真如此的話，問題就變成掙扎中的救援船上的船員，是否自認他們可以把情況穩定下來。而他們的唯一方法是一套以前無法想像的方案——把一些人拋下船，減輕救援艇負擔，救援剩下的乘客。
這就是歐洲央行當前所處的境況。
其結果具有高度不確定性，而且會引發一連串後果——不僅僅是對歐洲，也是對全球經濟。全球經濟正處於一場同步衰退中，拜美國最近的債務上限危機和恥辱性的失去AAA主權債務評級事件所賜，世界經濟之錨受到了極大損壞，這給全球經濟帶來了巨大麻煩。
歐洲央行已經購買了近1000億歐元的周邊國家國債，而且承諾將繼續大手筆買進。較少受到關注的是，歐洲央行還把所謂的「回購操作」（repo operations）規模擴大了好幾倍，通過回購操作，歐洲央行將歐元注入到受困銀行中，「暫時」交換這些銀行資產負債表上的國債，且「隨時可以逆操作」。
顯然，在2009年，歐洲央行並沒有發出可能引起爭議的警告——希臘已破產而不僅僅是失去了流動性。我自己的感覺是歐洲央行此舉並非不能，而是不為，因為它擔心這樣會對歐元區其他國家造成附帶傷害。歐洲央行選擇了拖延，寄望歐元區最脆弱的成員能夠增強防禦力，抵擋住希臘傳染病的蔓延。
從這個角度看，歐洲央行顯得過於輕率了。它相信周邊經濟體會拿出嚴肅的財政緊縮方案，卻罔顧它們的成長前景十分黯淡，而且普遍缺乏競爭力的現實。它還相信核心國家會助歐洲央行一臂之力，分擔巨大的救援成本。
然而，即使歐洲央行有著無限的耐心，世界其他國家也等不下去。市場明白，歐洲央行無法永遠代替其他政府機構行事，沒有其他機構的支援，歐洲央行前所未有的舉動終會有盡頭。歐洲央行搭起了橋，卻不知道對岸在什麼地方。
不管你作何見解，歐洲央行（以及歐洲）正在被迫走向三個曾經被認為不可能發生的結局。結局可能在幾周，也可能在幾個月內發生，但不會拖到幾個季度甚至幾年後再發生。
歐債危機的三大結局
第一個結局是歐元區的崩潰。只有唯恐天下不亂者才希望出現這一結果，但它確實很有可能發生──如果核心國家政府（德、法……）繼續在掏自家腰包的問題上猶豫不決的話，或是周邊國家政府拋棄財政改革努力的話，或是社會不再能夠忍受經濟停滯、不斷上升的失業率以及預算緊縮的話。
第二個結局是政治學家所樂意見到的：十七個歐元區成員國組成一個財政聯盟，德國願意像對待東德那樣對待歐元區，在未來數年內向歐元區輸血。為求回報，德國將要求其他歐元區成員國實施經濟治理改革，交出部分財政主權。
第三個結局則代表了不少經濟學家的觀點：建立一個更小、在經濟上更加趨向同一的歐元區。這個歐元區將由核心國家和近核心國家組成，包括一個更緊密的財政聯盟和更可信的傳染抵抗能力。在此過程中，二到三個周邊經濟體將脫離歐元，以短期經濟不確定性為代價換取更多的工具選擇，來處理債務宿醉和競爭力缺乏問題。
儘管結局已經快要到來，但要預測哪種結局會發生仍然是不可能的。這將取決於支持率低下、反對聲浪日盛又缺乏精誠合作的政客們如何抉擇。
我的感覺是，政客會選擇第二個結局；但最終，在歐元區執行這一決策將以失敗告終，這一點我們現在就已經知道了。在經歷了劇烈波動後，將會產生一個更小但更穩健的貨幣聯盟；歐洲將會避免歐元的崩潰以及歐元區的徹底分崩離析，這一點非常重要。
不管你作何觀點，即將到來的結局將是既複雜又失序的。要是歐洲央行在歐洲債務危機爆發初始就意識到這一點，它或許就不會讓自己的資產負債表和名聲擔這麼大風險了。然而，它可能也別無選擇，就像我們的那艘曾經靈活的快艇不能選擇安然呆在港口裡那樣。
作者簡介_穆罕默德·艾爾-艾利安
然而，即使歐洲央行有著無限的耐心，世界其他國家也等不下去。市場明白，歐洲央行無法永遠代替其他政府機構行事，沒有其他機構的支援，歐洲央行前所未有的舉動終會有盡頭。歐洲央行搭起了橋，卻不知道對岸在什麼地方。
不管你作何見解，歐洲央行（以及歐洲）正在被迫走向三個曾經被認為不可能發生的結局。結局可能在幾周，也可能在幾個月內發生，但不會拖到幾個季度甚至幾年後再發生。
歐債危機的三大結局
第一個結局是歐元區的崩潰。只有唯恐天下不亂者才希望出現這一結果，但它確實很有可能發生──如果核心國家政府（德、法……）繼續在掏自家腰包的問題上猶豫不決的話，或是周邊國家政府拋棄財政改革努力的話，或是社會不再能夠忍受經濟停滯、不斷上升的失業率以及預算緊縮的話。
第二個結局是政治學家所樂意見到的：十七個歐元區成員國組成一個財政聯盟，德國願意像對待東德那樣對待歐元區，在未來數年內向歐元區輸血。為求回報，德國將要求其他歐元區成員國實施經濟治理改革，交出部分財政主權。
第三個結局則代表了不少經濟學家的觀點：建立一個更小、在經濟上更加趨向同一的歐元區。這個歐元區將由核心國家和近核心國家組成，包括一個更緊密的財政聯盟和更可信的傳染抵抗能力。在此過程中，二到三個周邊經濟體將脫離歐元，以短期經濟不確定性為代價換取更多的工具選擇，來處理債務宿醉和競爭力缺乏問題。
儘管結局已經快要到來，但要預測哪種結局會發生仍然是不可能的。這將取決於支持率低下、反對聲浪日盛又缺乏精誠合作的政客們如何抉擇。
我的感覺是，政客會選擇第二個結局；但最終，在歐元區執行這一決策將以失敗告終，這一點我們現在就已經知道了。在經歷了劇烈波動後，將會產生一個更小但更穩健的貨幣聯盟；歐洲將會避免歐元的崩潰以及歐元區的徹底分崩離析，這一點非常重要。
不管你作何觀點，即將到來的結局將是既複雜又失序的。要是歐洲央行在歐洲債務危機爆發初始就意識到這一點，它或許就不會讓自己的資產負債表和名聲擔這麼大風險了。然而，它可能也別無選擇，就像我們的那艘曾經靈活的快艇不能選擇安然呆在港口裡那樣。
作者簡介_穆罕默德·艾爾-艾利安
Alpha Chart: Alpha Chart...An "Ugly Pageant", Anyone?
Are we prepared for a bear market?" This shall expand beyond stock investing as I find "gung-ho" property investors will face not only a tougher consequence of investing mistake of over-paying, but also a life long impact on one's financial involving a large investment amount that many take a life-time to save up to.
Read this blog.
http://alphachart.blogspot.com/2011/08/alpha-chartan-ugly-pageant-anyone.html
Read this blog.
http://alphachart.blogspot.com/2011/08/alpha-chartan-ugly-pageant-anyone.html
Friday, August 19, 2011
熱錢回頭 新興亞洲現買點
四月六日，外資法人大舉買超台股新台幣二百二十二億元，刷新近一年來單日最高紀錄，截至八日，光四個交易日，就買超近四百七十七億元；對照外資在二月撤出台股的「完美獵殺」，資金回流態勢確立。
八日，新台幣兌美元匯率破二十九元大關，以二十 八‧九九作收，創下近十三年半來新高。亞洲央行相繼升息，不只台灣，包括印度、南韓與中國等新興亞洲國家，無不吸引外資持續匯入，接連上演貨幣升值戲碼。
資金潮回來的理由，主要包括新興市場股市普遍出現近一成的回落、本益比回到值得投資的水準、原本的通膨疑慮可望在第三季緩和，以及美元升值到一個段落。這四大變數也造成全球資金大轉彎，重回新興市場懷抱。
新興市場又看俏 近期淨流入十六億美元
從美元指數變化，可看出全球資金輪動端倪。去年十一月上旬，中國上證指數到三千一百八十六高點時，美元指數回落到七五‧六，十一月底上證跌到二千七百五十八點時，美元指數漲回八一‧四；四月十一日，該指數則貶至七五‧○七，寶來曼氏期貨協理賴明潭指出，「美元指數反映資金變化，這代表資金從美元計價流出到非美元。」
追蹤共同基金流向的美國基金研究機構EPFR Global統計，就在三月底，幾乎連續幾週「失血」的全球新興市場基金，首見淨流入近十六億美元，其中，新興亞洲更中止連續九週淨流出。四月以來，台灣、南韓、印尼等新興亞洲國家，更是備受外資青睞的投資標的。
短短三個月，為什麼會有這樣翻天覆地的變化？
富蘭克林華美新興市場股票組合基金經理人張森貴觀察，去年新興市場普遍漲高，獲利了結賣壓沉重，加上北非中東等政治動亂使資金撤離，今年來表現不惡的美國等成熟市場才成了資金避風港。
「所謂資金『避風港』，當然只是短期，」賴明潭說。
八日，新台幣兌美元匯率破二十九元大關，以二十 八‧九九作收，創下近十三年半來新高。亞洲央行相繼升息，不只台灣，包括印度、南韓與中國等新興亞洲國家，無不吸引外資持續匯入，接連上演貨幣升值戲碼。
資金潮回來的理由，主要包括新興市場股市普遍出現近一成的回落、本益比回到值得投資的水準、原本的通膨疑慮可望在第三季緩和，以及美元升值到一個段落。這四大變數也造成全球資金大轉彎，重回新興市場懷抱。
新興市場又看俏 近期淨流入十六億美元
從美元指數變化，可看出全球資金輪動端倪。去年十一月上旬，中國上證指數到三千一百八十六高點時，美元指數回落到七五‧六，十一月底上證跌到二千七百五十八點時，美元指數漲回八一‧四；四月十一日，該指數則貶至七五‧○七，寶來曼氏期貨協理賴明潭指出，「美元指數反映資金變化，這代表資金從美元計價流出到非美元。」
追蹤共同基金流向的美國基金研究機構EPFR Global統計，就在三月底，幾乎連續幾週「失血」的全球新興市場基金，首見淨流入近十六億美元，其中，新興亞洲更中止連續九週淨流出。四月以來，台灣、南韓、印尼等新興亞洲國家，更是備受外資青睞的投資標的。
短短三個月，為什麼會有這樣翻天覆地的變化？
富蘭克林華美新興市場股票組合基金經理人張森貴觀察，去年新興市場普遍漲高，獲利了結賣壓沉重，加上北非中東等政治動亂使資金撤離，今年來表現不惡的美國等成熟市場才成了資金避風港。
「所謂資金『避風港』，當然只是短期，」賴明潭說。
本益比相對低 通膨有壓力、無殺傷力
德盛安聯海外投資首席傅子平解釋，新興亞洲過去五年本益比平均近十六倍，隨券商預估未來十二個月企業獲利攀高、約十三倍的本益比計算，現行股價相對便宜，「錢當然會自動流向本益比相對便宜的地區。」
當獲利空間大，便吸引外資介入。
以台指期為例，賴明潭觀察，早在三月二十五日，台股仍處在日本大震後的震盪，外資便累積了近兩萬口多單，以進場時八千四百點的成本計算，若二十日結算日台股到達九千點，則每口獲利十二萬，保守估計兩萬口至少可獲利二十億。
中長期新興市場經濟成長領先成熟國家無庸置疑，各界更關注成本推動與需求拉動下的通膨議題。
摩根富林明投信投資董事吳淑婷認為，油價短期內不易回檔，但價格並非急升、仍屬健康供需，且通膨指標大國中國也可望有效控制物價，她因此認為今年通膨對新興市場來說，「有壓力、沒殺傷力。」
傅子平補充說，隨去年下半年基期較高與近期調控政策發酵，市場預期多數新興市場通膨在第二季可觸頂，加上市場先行反映等特性，通膨議題可說利空出盡，隨資金回流速度加快，買點也漸浮現。
新興亞洲列首選 中國上漲空間最大
現階段，想隨資金行情擁抱新興市場的投資人，應該如何挑選？
專家認為，從題材與評價的角度，首選高成長的新興亞洲，較不建議近期已漲高的新興歐洲與拉丁美洲。
「金磚四國中，中國離歷史高點最遠，」財經作家楊偉凱認為，企業獲利確定，但相對漲幅仍小的中國市場最適合中長期投資，而東南亞國家歷經今年來一波修正，目前價值合理，受惠中國內需與企業獲利等利多的新興亞洲漲幅可期，投資人可伺機布局。
據Cmoney統計，由四月八日金磚四國指數的收盤價，對比各國近十年高點的距離，假設未來能重回高點，投資中國能獲得的報酬遠大於東歐的俄羅斯與拉美的巴西：目前上海綜合指數距二○○七年十月的高點，還有一○二‧一一％的上漲空間，至於俄羅斯與巴西，最高漲幅空間則分別只有一九‧五五％和六‧八六％。
新興歐洲部分，儘管市場預期今年油價將維持高檔震盪，可望因油價高度連動較易有表現，但柏瑞旗艦全球組合系列暨金牌組合基金經理人曾志峰提醒，新興歐洲今年來漲幅已達近兩成，「現在布局不免有追高味道，」此外從歷史經驗來看，俄羅斯往往第一季就漲完全年四分之三，其後隨天氣放暖、能源需求下降，市場也會跟著逐漸回落。
至於拉丁美洲除了評價偏高，使投資價值降低；權重最高的巴西近日又為打擊熱錢，加重課稅等資本管制，衝擊股市表現。
考量原物料今年仍是主流，建議投資人可先觀望，等跌到相對低點再進場。
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
世銀警告全球經濟進入信心危險期
8月 16日 星期二 14:01 更新
世界銀行警告，全球經濟正進入另一個危險期，這波危機的始作俑者歐洲國家，必須好好整頓經濟，恢復金融市場的信心。
世銀總裁佐利克說，歐洲債務危機和美國的政黨惡鬥引發股市震盪，再度重創投資信心；過去幾個禮拜，全球經濟又進入了一個危險的階段，現在最擔心的就是，它壓抑了消費與企業投資信心。
佐利克說，歐洲央行最近買進義大利和西班牙(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)公債的決定是正確的，但是這種方式只能發揮短期穩定市場的效用，對於治本沒有幫助。
世界銀行警告，全球經濟正進入另一個危險期，這波危機的始作俑者歐洲國家，必須好好整頓經濟，恢復金融市場的信心。
世銀總裁佐利克說，歐洲債務危機和美國的政黨惡鬥引發股市震盪，再度重創投資信心；過去幾個禮拜，全球經濟又進入了一個危險的階段，現在最擔心的就是，它壓抑了消費與企業投資信心。
佐利克說，歐洲央行最近買進義大利和西班牙(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)公債的決定是正確的，但是這種方式只能發揮短期穩定市場的效用，對於治本沒有幫助。
Monday, August 15, 2011
Property price pullback after strong show in 2010: More to come?
Written by A special report by Jupiter Securities Research
Monday, 15 August 2011 11:48
Bookmark and Share
There is no question that Malaysia’s residential property market had a great run between 2001 and 2011. But property stocks have had a chequered performance record.
A capitalisation-weighted sector index, the Bursa Malaysia Properties Index suggests property stocks exhibit a pattern of returning to the approximate base levels (starting points) after the index completes its rally.
Each successive rally also took the index higher than the previous occasion, that is, assuming the current rally will accomplish the same. This suggests that, in general, property stocks on Bursa Malaysia are purely cyclical and exhibit increasingly volatile retracements with every new upswing cycle.
The upswing portion of each rally cycle appears to last either about 11 months or, if of an extended duration, about 20 months. Given that property stocks began rallying in April 2009, the post-recession rally reached its 21st-month duration in January 2011 and may already be past its approximate end if the January 2011 high is to be taken as a peak.
Given the cyclical nature of property stocks, they are unsuitable for a buy-and-hold approach to investing. Timing considerations then take on an important role in investments in property stocks.
An integral part of investing in property stocks is therefore to also read market trends for signals identifying a peak in the cycle e.g. relying on technical analysis for signals, but we will suggest that there are other ways to achieve this.
Success in direct property investments depends ultimately on the choice of location, but sentiment trends may be discerned from Malaysia’s House Price Index. After staging an excellent run in 2010, particularly in Kuala Lumpur and Selangor, this index dipped quarter-on-quarter in 1Q11.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that speculative activities did play a major role in the initial run-up in prices in 2009 right after interest rates fell with the onset of the 2008 global downturn. In turn, the sharp price appreciation drew in new speculators and resulted in newly formed families bringing forward house purchase decisions.
In the past 10 years, property prices rose steadily, resulting in a proliferation of hitherto rare million-ringgit homes. Based on the national House Price Index, a “representative” residential property costing RM100,000 in 1988 would have risen in value from RM220,694 in 2000 to RM308,066 in 2010, up 40% on the back of a rise in per capita nominal income of 20%.
Property investment became a viable asset class in Malaysia, where it had stayed in a class of alternative investments outside mainstream asset classes in the preceding decades.
What has changed in the past 10 years that has allowed house price appreciation to outstrip income growth without affecting demand? We suggest six main factors:
Malaysia's aggressively young demographic profile has and will continue to fuel rising demand for housing.
1) Malaysia’s aggressively young demographic profile has and will continue to fuel rising demand for housing. There’s an age pyramid showing a jump in the population in the 20 to 29 years age bracket compared with the 30 to 39 bracket.
This means that household formation is set to pick up pace sharply and that sets the stage for a boom in housing demand in the medium term. Our estimates suggest that on a nationwide basis, the rate of household formation implies that the incoming supply can be mostly absorbed.
But demographic dynamics do not permit demand to circumvent affordability issues.
2) Interest rates fell steadily from 1998 highs. From a mean lending rate of 12.1% in 1998, interest rates fell to 5% in 2010. This lowered the monthly interest-only cost of, for example, a RM200,000 loan by 34.5% from RM1,278 to RM837 while nominal incomes rose 20%.
Lately, many developers even absorb the holding cost by offering interest-free periods until completion. This enables property speculators to gamble on potential price appreciation by buying, then simply “flipping” a property to the next purchaser before the need to pay any money at all arises.
3) Loan to value (LTV) or the margin of finance that banks permitted borrowers to take on rose from typical ceilings of about 70% in the early 1990s to as high as 95% to 100% recently.
The implication is that house buyers need not spend as many years accumulating cash resources needed as deposit for a purchase. Consequently, it became possible to buy a residential property very early in one’s career. Purchase decisions brought forward easily in this manner fuelled demand for houses.
4) Loan repayment periods were in the past constrained by the length of one’s working career (up to 55 years of age), effectively limiting anyone who began working immediately after graduation from university to no more than a 32-year loan. But no more. Banks resorted to two-generation loans of 40+ years’ duration at the peak of Malaysia’s 1980s property boom. Malaysian banks have now come full circle to again offer 40-year loans or for periods until the borrowers reach 70 years of age (effectively launching into two-generation loans again).
The average life expectancy for Malaysian males is 73 years, meaning that this measure (lengthening repayment periods) has no further room for play.
5) Multiple home mortgages spread across several financial institutions each still declared as owner-occupied units generate strong demand that is higher than can be inferred from income or demographics. They reduce each bank’s exposure to a given borrower, but mask elevated systemic risks. Generally, owner-occupied residential mortgages find favour with banks because they are thought to spread out risks, and individuals will arguably be loathe to lose the roof over their heads.
Owner-occupied home mortgages also tax the capital base of banks less. They carry 50% risk weight, allowing banks to extend twice the sum in credit on a given capital base.
6) The rise of property as an international investment asset class. The pooling of investor resources via vehicles like local and regional REITs (real estate investment trusts) has telegraphed the up-until-then limited ability of individual investors to invest in large-scale commercial properties. Some property consultants also attribute the purchase of properties by foreigners as an important demand driver, but other than residential properties in a limited number of enclaves, this may not be a major source of property demand.
Applications to take up residence here under the Malaysia My Second Home programme number about 1,500 a year. Some consultants also allude to the repatriation of money by returning expatriate Malaysians. The extent of this inflow and the number of individuals involved is unknown.
It is clear that easier and cheaper credit availability for both residential as well as commercial properties were major factors fuelling a decade-long upswing in property prices. Between 2000 and 2010, nominal GDP rose annually at 4.6% a year Banking system housing loans in comparison, grew far faster annually, averaging 16.8% a year.
This translated into increasing levels of household debts relative to income. During all periods when GDP growth stalled in the past decade, loans growth merely slowed briefly, only to see, on recovery, an acceleration to a pace faster than prior to the slowdown.
The resultant relentless rise in household debts became possible mainly via a loosening of lending standards in the manner described above.
Is further leverage even possible?
The precise upper limit of sustainable household debts is a matter, of some conjecture, but Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has begun to turn its attention to the matter given the role played by unsustainable household debt levels in inflating a housing market bubble in the US between 2002 and 2006 and given an alarming number of cases of individuals (140,000) seeking assistance from AKPK (the Credit Mediation Bureau).
How far away are Malaysian households from the famously high debt levels of US households at this point?
The chart sets out the household debt-to-GDP ratio for the US from 1952 to 2011. Note that the 2010 household debt-to-GDP ratio for Malaysia stood at 76%, approximating US household debt-to-GDP levels in mid-2002, when the housing bubble in the US began unfolding.
It would therefore be prudent that BNM quickly install measures to head off an involuntary deleveraging process that would accompany any subsequent bursting of an asset bubble (e.g. requiring banks to test repayment means using net, not gross, income as is usually done).
That the current US household debt-to-GDP ratio of 88.6% is still an unsustainable level is best indicated by the still ongoing nature of the US household debt deleveraging process.
In our opinion, the comfortable aggregate household debt to financial assets ratio at 238% for Malaysia is an unreliable buffer because currently high asset prices (e.g. unit trust prices) may also rapidly deflate in a deflationary environment that typically accompanies the onset of any deleveraging process.
Also, such aggregate data masks the true extent of the pervasiveness of over-extended households where income disparity is very wide (a small number of extremely wealthy households with no leverage in combination with a large number of over-extended households will result in a comfortable aggregate ratio still).
Anecdotal evidence hints that this may be increasingly the case. In a systemic crisis, it will be the number of households in the weakest financial position at the margin which determines the incidence of inability to meet financial obligations.
While the precise timing of peak conditions in the property market is as always unclear, we see clear implications from the tailing-off of the credit impetus to the housing market.
The large-scale township development model is clearly behind us. The lack of large plots of undeveloped land in the proximity of mature urban areas means developers must realistically focus on smaller developments, thus robbing property developers of some economies of scale.
The strategic response has been to move upmarket, into “niche product”, higher-margin developments.
In order to justify higher prices, product innovations such as gated communities, “landed strata” communities, SOHO (and variant) residential developments with commercial possibilities, and inner-city high-rise developments have been explored.
First-mover advantage can be quickly lost, so innovations such as these have been followed up by rapid-fire launches across a number of locations.
To maintain the earnings momentum, the gross development values (GDVs) at property developers have had to be quickly built up. To ease the process, these developers have also increasingly turned to commercial developments that involve higher GDVs, but which are more vulnerable to soft patches in the economy.
This is of particular concern as our view is that in a “new normal” world economic order, business cycles will be of a shorter duration.
A clear consequence is the spring/summer soft patch in the US and developed economies that has already weighed on property prices in export-dependent Penang.
Valuing property companies will become measurably more difficult in 2012 as new accounting standards in accordance with IC Interpretation 15 of FRS118 are to be observed in respect of income recognition beginning from 2012.
The present method of first estimating the total development profits and then progressively matching the estimated profits with the percentage of completion is thought to be unreliable, as the risk of failure to carry construction to completion will go unrecognised and project cost overruns may not be reckoned with until the completion, skewing reported quarterly earnings away from reality.
As a strategy, we have deliberately focused our attention on property companies with a small current base of ongoing projects measured by their GDV but which have a strong pipeline of relatively affordable properties, particularly in the Klang Valley.
Considering the following:
1) The interest rate cycle has clearly bottomed and is on the upswing in the face
of inflationary pressures;
2) Beating means test constraints through lengthening repayment periods has reached a practical limit with the latest 40-year loans;
3) Demand from investors is being choked off by restricted access to high LTV loans for second and subsequent home purchases;
4) The price dynamics have turned less friendly and may turn unfriendly in several major states; and
5) The ratio of the price of a representative house to the nominal per capita income has reached 1996 (eve of Asian crisis) levels and Malaysian consumer debt levels are unsustainable.
Our preferred approach to stock-picking in the property sector is to focus on companies with projects involving ongoing GDV of less than RM1 billion. These tend to be lower capitalisation stocks but those which we eye as candidates for promotion into the big league.
The drawback is, with a smaller even if growing pipeline of projects, these companies will report a more volatile stream of earnings when income recognition becomes restricted to the completion stage beginning 2012.
We have also become more wary of property developers with a high exposure to the shop unit, shopping complex and purpose-built office properties segment in Putrajaya, Kuala Lumpur, Selangor and Johor.
There is anecdotal evidence that the surge in launches in this property segment was to an extent made possible by the loosening of bank credit standards. In the past, drawdowns of bridging loans were, as a rule of thumb, subject to projects exceeding the 60% sold mark.
This has apparently been lowered to 40% in many instances, raising risk levels for banks and also for developers.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 15, 2011.
Monday, 15 August 2011 11:48
Bookmark and Share
There is no question that Malaysia’s residential property market had a great run between 2001 and 2011. But property stocks have had a chequered performance record.
A capitalisation-weighted sector index, the Bursa Malaysia Properties Index suggests property stocks exhibit a pattern of returning to the approximate base levels (starting points) after the index completes its rally.
Each successive rally also took the index higher than the previous occasion, that is, assuming the current rally will accomplish the same. This suggests that, in general, property stocks on Bursa Malaysia are purely cyclical and exhibit increasingly volatile retracements with every new upswing cycle.
The upswing portion of each rally cycle appears to last either about 11 months or, if of an extended duration, about 20 months. Given that property stocks began rallying in April 2009, the post-recession rally reached its 21st-month duration in January 2011 and may already be past its approximate end if the January 2011 high is to be taken as a peak.
Given the cyclical nature of property stocks, they are unsuitable for a buy-and-hold approach to investing. Timing considerations then take on an important role in investments in property stocks.
An integral part of investing in property stocks is therefore to also read market trends for signals identifying a peak in the cycle e.g. relying on technical analysis for signals, but we will suggest that there are other ways to achieve this.
Success in direct property investments depends ultimately on the choice of location, but sentiment trends may be discerned from Malaysia’s House Price Index. After staging an excellent run in 2010, particularly in Kuala Lumpur and Selangor, this index dipped quarter-on-quarter in 1Q11.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that speculative activities did play a major role in the initial run-up in prices in 2009 right after interest rates fell with the onset of the 2008 global downturn. In turn, the sharp price appreciation drew in new speculators and resulted in newly formed families bringing forward house purchase decisions.
In the past 10 years, property prices rose steadily, resulting in a proliferation of hitherto rare million-ringgit homes. Based on the national House Price Index, a “representative” residential property costing RM100,000 in 1988 would have risen in value from RM220,694 in 2000 to RM308,066 in 2010, up 40% on the back of a rise in per capita nominal income of 20%.
Property investment became a viable asset class in Malaysia, where it had stayed in a class of alternative investments outside mainstream asset classes in the preceding decades.
What has changed in the past 10 years that has allowed house price appreciation to outstrip income growth without affecting demand? We suggest six main factors:
Malaysia's aggressively young demographic profile has and will continue to fuel rising demand for housing.
1) Malaysia’s aggressively young demographic profile has and will continue to fuel rising demand for housing. There’s an age pyramid showing a jump in the population in the 20 to 29 years age bracket compared with the 30 to 39 bracket.
This means that household formation is set to pick up pace sharply and that sets the stage for a boom in housing demand in the medium term. Our estimates suggest that on a nationwide basis, the rate of household formation implies that the incoming supply can be mostly absorbed.
But demographic dynamics do not permit demand to circumvent affordability issues.
2) Interest rates fell steadily from 1998 highs. From a mean lending rate of 12.1% in 1998, interest rates fell to 5% in 2010. This lowered the monthly interest-only cost of, for example, a RM200,000 loan by 34.5% from RM1,278 to RM837 while nominal incomes rose 20%.
Lately, many developers even absorb the holding cost by offering interest-free periods until completion. This enables property speculators to gamble on potential price appreciation by buying, then simply “flipping” a property to the next purchaser before the need to pay any money at all arises.
3) Loan to value (LTV) or the margin of finance that banks permitted borrowers to take on rose from typical ceilings of about 70% in the early 1990s to as high as 95% to 100% recently.
The implication is that house buyers need not spend as many years accumulating cash resources needed as deposit for a purchase. Consequently, it became possible to buy a residential property very early in one’s career. Purchase decisions brought forward easily in this manner fuelled demand for houses.
4) Loan repayment periods were in the past constrained by the length of one’s working career (up to 55 years of age), effectively limiting anyone who began working immediately after graduation from university to no more than a 32-year loan. But no more. Banks resorted to two-generation loans of 40+ years’ duration at the peak of Malaysia’s 1980s property boom. Malaysian banks have now come full circle to again offer 40-year loans or for periods until the borrowers reach 70 years of age (effectively launching into two-generation loans again).
The average life expectancy for Malaysian males is 73 years, meaning that this measure (lengthening repayment periods) has no further room for play.
5) Multiple home mortgages spread across several financial institutions each still declared as owner-occupied units generate strong demand that is higher than can be inferred from income or demographics. They reduce each bank’s exposure to a given borrower, but mask elevated systemic risks. Generally, owner-occupied residential mortgages find favour with banks because they are thought to spread out risks, and individuals will arguably be loathe to lose the roof over their heads.
Owner-occupied home mortgages also tax the capital base of banks less. They carry 50% risk weight, allowing banks to extend twice the sum in credit on a given capital base.
6) The rise of property as an international investment asset class. The pooling of investor resources via vehicles like local and regional REITs (real estate investment trusts) has telegraphed the up-until-then limited ability of individual investors to invest in large-scale commercial properties. Some property consultants also attribute the purchase of properties by foreigners as an important demand driver, but other than residential properties in a limited number of enclaves, this may not be a major source of property demand.
Applications to take up residence here under the Malaysia My Second Home programme number about 1,500 a year. Some consultants also allude to the repatriation of money by returning expatriate Malaysians. The extent of this inflow and the number of individuals involved is unknown.
It is clear that easier and cheaper credit availability for both residential as well as commercial properties were major factors fuelling a decade-long upswing in property prices. Between 2000 and 2010, nominal GDP rose annually at 4.6% a year Banking system housing loans in comparison, grew far faster annually, averaging 16.8% a year.
This translated into increasing levels of household debts relative to income. During all periods when GDP growth stalled in the past decade, loans growth merely slowed briefly, only to see, on recovery, an acceleration to a pace faster than prior to the slowdown.
The resultant relentless rise in household debts became possible mainly via a loosening of lending standards in the manner described above.
Is further leverage even possible?
The precise upper limit of sustainable household debts is a matter, of some conjecture, but Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has begun to turn its attention to the matter given the role played by unsustainable household debt levels in inflating a housing market bubble in the US between 2002 and 2006 and given an alarming number of cases of individuals (140,000) seeking assistance from AKPK (the Credit Mediation Bureau).
How far away are Malaysian households from the famously high debt levels of US households at this point?
The chart sets out the household debt-to-GDP ratio for the US from 1952 to 2011. Note that the 2010 household debt-to-GDP ratio for Malaysia stood at 76%, approximating US household debt-to-GDP levels in mid-2002, when the housing bubble in the US began unfolding.
It would therefore be prudent that BNM quickly install measures to head off an involuntary deleveraging process that would accompany any subsequent bursting of an asset bubble (e.g. requiring banks to test repayment means using net, not gross, income as is usually done).
That the current US household debt-to-GDP ratio of 88.6% is still an unsustainable level is best indicated by the still ongoing nature of the US household debt deleveraging process.
In our opinion, the comfortable aggregate household debt to financial assets ratio at 238% for Malaysia is an unreliable buffer because currently high asset prices (e.g. unit trust prices) may also rapidly deflate in a deflationary environment that typically accompanies the onset of any deleveraging process.
Also, such aggregate data masks the true extent of the pervasiveness of over-extended households where income disparity is very wide (a small number of extremely wealthy households with no leverage in combination with a large number of over-extended households will result in a comfortable aggregate ratio still).
Anecdotal evidence hints that this may be increasingly the case. In a systemic crisis, it will be the number of households in the weakest financial position at the margin which determines the incidence of inability to meet financial obligations.
While the precise timing of peak conditions in the property market is as always unclear, we see clear implications from the tailing-off of the credit impetus to the housing market.
The large-scale township development model is clearly behind us. The lack of large plots of undeveloped land in the proximity of mature urban areas means developers must realistically focus on smaller developments, thus robbing property developers of some economies of scale.
The strategic response has been to move upmarket, into “niche product”, higher-margin developments.
In order to justify higher prices, product innovations such as gated communities, “landed strata” communities, SOHO (and variant) residential developments with commercial possibilities, and inner-city high-rise developments have been explored.
First-mover advantage can be quickly lost, so innovations such as these have been followed up by rapid-fire launches across a number of locations.
To maintain the earnings momentum, the gross development values (GDVs) at property developers have had to be quickly built up. To ease the process, these developers have also increasingly turned to commercial developments that involve higher GDVs, but which are more vulnerable to soft patches in the economy.
This is of particular concern as our view is that in a “new normal” world economic order, business cycles will be of a shorter duration.
A clear consequence is the spring/summer soft patch in the US and developed economies that has already weighed on property prices in export-dependent Penang.
Valuing property companies will become measurably more difficult in 2012 as new accounting standards in accordance with IC Interpretation 15 of FRS118 are to be observed in respect of income recognition beginning from 2012.
The present method of first estimating the total development profits and then progressively matching the estimated profits with the percentage of completion is thought to be unreliable, as the risk of failure to carry construction to completion will go unrecognised and project cost overruns may not be reckoned with until the completion, skewing reported quarterly earnings away from reality.
As a strategy, we have deliberately focused our attention on property companies with a small current base of ongoing projects measured by their GDV but which have a strong pipeline of relatively affordable properties, particularly in the Klang Valley.
Considering the following:
1) The interest rate cycle has clearly bottomed and is on the upswing in the face
of inflationary pressures;
2) Beating means test constraints through lengthening repayment periods has reached a practical limit with the latest 40-year loans;
3) Demand from investors is being choked off by restricted access to high LTV loans for second and subsequent home purchases;
4) The price dynamics have turned less friendly and may turn unfriendly in several major states; and
5) The ratio of the price of a representative house to the nominal per capita income has reached 1996 (eve of Asian crisis) levels and Malaysian consumer debt levels are unsustainable.
Our preferred approach to stock-picking in the property sector is to focus on companies with projects involving ongoing GDV of less than RM1 billion. These tend to be lower capitalisation stocks but those which we eye as candidates for promotion into the big league.
The drawback is, with a smaller even if growing pipeline of projects, these companies will report a more volatile stream of earnings when income recognition becomes restricted to the completion stage beginning 2012.
We have also become more wary of property developers with a high exposure to the shop unit, shopping complex and purpose-built office properties segment in Putrajaya, Kuala Lumpur, Selangor and Johor.
There is anecdotal evidence that the surge in launches in this property segment was to an extent made possible by the loosening of bank credit standards. In the past, drawdowns of bridging loans were, as a rule of thumb, subject to projects exceeding the 60% sold mark.
This has apparently been lowered to 40% in many instances, raising risk levels for banks and also for developers.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 15, 2011.
Sunday, August 14, 2011
大危機 歐盟五百萬年輕人失業
更新日期:"2011/08/12 18:48"
（中央社記者林琳柏林12日專電）歐盟國家年齡15到24歲的年輕人有1/5找不到工作，多達500萬人，是歐盟地區最令人憂心的社會問題之一，其中又以西班牙最嚴重，年輕人失業率高達45.7%。
根據德國聯邦統計局資料，今年6月歐盟地區平均失業率9.4%，但年齡在15到24歲的年輕人失業率卻高達20.5%。
年輕人失業問題最嚴重的是南歐的西班牙，希臘年輕人失業率也高達38.5%、義大利則是27.8%、愛爾蘭26.9%、葡萄牙26.8%、瑞典23.1%、法國22.8%、芬蘭19.9%、英國19.6%。
在東歐前社會主義國家的年輕人也有覓職困難的問題，其中以斯洛伐克年輕人失業率最高，達33.3%，其次是立陶宛32.6%、拉脫維亞29.7%、保加利亞27.3%、匈牙利24.8%、波蘭23.6%、羅馬尼亞22.8%。
年輕人失業率在10%以下的歐盟國家，只有荷蘭7.1%、奧地利8.2%、德國9.1%。不過，這三個國家年輕人失業率仍高於所有年齡層人口的失業率。荷蘭的失業率是4.1%，奧地利是4%，德國是6.1%。1000812
（中央社記者林琳柏林12日專電）歐盟國家年齡15到24歲的年輕人有1/5找不到工作，多達500萬人，是歐盟地區最令人憂心的社會問題之一，其中又以西班牙最嚴重，年輕人失業率高達45.7%。
根據德國聯邦統計局資料，今年6月歐盟地區平均失業率9.4%，但年齡在15到24歲的年輕人失業率卻高達20.5%。
年輕人失業問題最嚴重的是南歐的西班牙，希臘年輕人失業率也高達38.5%、義大利則是27.8%、愛爾蘭26.9%、葡萄牙26.8%、瑞典23.1%、法國22.8%、芬蘭19.9%、英國19.6%。
在東歐前社會主義國家的年輕人也有覓職困難的問題，其中以斯洛伐克年輕人失業率最高，達33.3%，其次是立陶宛32.6%、拉脫維亞29.7%、保加利亞27.3%、匈牙利24.8%、波蘭23.6%、羅馬尼亞22.8%。
年輕人失業率在10%以下的歐盟國家，只有荷蘭7.1%、奧地利8.2%、德國9.1%。不過，這三個國家年輕人失業率仍高於所有年齡層人口的失業率。荷蘭的失業率是4.1%，奧地利是4%，德國是6.1%。1000812
Friday, August 12, 2011
商業周刊-專欄部落格-大師開講-新預算法案只會讓美國更貧困
經過了一番艱難的協商，美國總統歐巴馬在8月2日簽訂了美國預算法案，其中包括提高美國政府的債務限額、降低聯邦開支等，讓美國免於224年的歷史進程中第一次出現違約的可能。
但是這項條約存在三個主要缺陷：其中兩個利弊相互抵消，第三個缺陷卻威脅到美國舉國上下在未來數年內應該放在首位的任務——經濟成長。
第一個缺陷是政府開支降低的時機不恰當。當美國全國的經濟都處於低迷的時期，降低開支這一舉措可能會引發另一場大蕭條。
第二個缺陷是所制定的開支削減的力度不夠。立法機構對解決美國長期、不斷惡化的財政赤字問題力度不夠，但這麼一來，短期內替經濟帶來的危害就很有限。
第三個、也是危害最大的缺陷，是開支削減被應用到錯誤的地方。
由於國會中的民主黨幾乎擁有一致的信仰──保護主義和完整主義。他們認為美國上下最主要的福利計畫應該針對老年人，醫療保障和醫療系統，但是立法機構並沒有涉及到這兩個問題中的的任何一個。隨著7800萬出生於1946到1964年的嬰兒潮人口退休並且收取福利時，這些計畫所需要的花費會迅速增長，而這一花費也是政府在未來數年中，最主要的財政開支和預期赤字來源。但是由於國會共和黨強烈反對任何形式、任何時間或任何情況下的加稅，所以這項法案不可能依靠稅收增加來達成。
所有的開支削減都源自於聯邦預算的自由量裁（discretionary）部分。這一部分的預算不包括社會保險、醫療保險、針對貧困階層的醫療補助計畫，以及國債利息。這一削減使全部的聯邦開支減少三分之一，而大部分削減來自於國防預算；可是共和黨會在未來努力去維護國防預算。因此8月2日法案建立起的框架，主要是針對非國防專案上的聯邦預算赤字削減，然而這只占全部聯邦預算的10％。
這一削減只占了美國在未來數年間所需要取得的財政赤字削減規模的一小部分。更糟糕的是，自由量裁的非國防開支包括經濟成長所必需的專案，而經濟成長對美國未來繁榮和鞏固全球領導地位是萬萬不可缺少的。
首先，經濟成長是減少國家預算赤字最有效的手段。經濟成長率越快，無需通過上調稅率，政府就可以獲得更多收入。收入越多，財政赤字就會越小。
再者，經濟成長對於信守每一代美國人都有機會比上一代更富強這一承諾，尤為關鍵。這一承諾對每一個美國人來說都極為重要，被大眾稱為美國夢。
經濟成長對非美國籍的外國人來說也同樣重要。經濟成長可以確保美國在全球不斷擴張責任，這不僅有助於全球經濟，同時有助於維護歐洲，東亞以及中亞的穩定。
正如湯瑪斯‧弗里曼和我在我們即將出版的新書《這就是曾經的我們---美國是如何落後於自己扶持起的世界以及美國如何重新崛起》中解釋道：美國經濟繁榮的一個非常重要的因素，是國有和私有的夥伴關係制度，這種制度可以追溯到美國剛建國之時。但這種制度已經被8月2號建立的預算削減模式所破壞。
但是這項條約存在三個主要缺陷：其中兩個利弊相互抵消，第三個缺陷卻威脅到美國舉國上下在未來數年內應該放在首位的任務——經濟成長。
第一個缺陷是政府開支降低的時機不恰當。當美國全國的經濟都處於低迷的時期，降低開支這一舉措可能會引發另一場大蕭條。
第二個缺陷是所制定的開支削減的力度不夠。立法機構對解決美國長期、不斷惡化的財政赤字問題力度不夠，但這麼一來，短期內替經濟帶來的危害就很有限。
第三個、也是危害最大的缺陷，是開支削減被應用到錯誤的地方。
由於國會中的民主黨幾乎擁有一致的信仰──保護主義和完整主義。他們認為美國上下最主要的福利計畫應該針對老年人，醫療保障和醫療系統，但是立法機構並沒有涉及到這兩個問題中的的任何一個。隨著7800萬出生於1946到1964年的嬰兒潮人口退休並且收取福利時，這些計畫所需要的花費會迅速增長，而這一花費也是政府在未來數年中，最主要的財政開支和預期赤字來源。但是由於國會共和黨強烈反對任何形式、任何時間或任何情況下的加稅，所以這項法案不可能依靠稅收增加來達成。
所有的開支削減都源自於聯邦預算的自由量裁（discretionary）部分。這一部分的預算不包括社會保險、醫療保險、針對貧困階層的醫療補助計畫，以及國債利息。這一削減使全部的聯邦開支減少三分之一，而大部分削減來自於國防預算；可是共和黨會在未來努力去維護國防預算。因此8月2日法案建立起的框架，主要是針對非國防專案上的聯邦預算赤字削減，然而這只占全部聯邦預算的10％。
這一削減只占了美國在未來數年間所需要取得的財政赤字削減規模的一小部分。更糟糕的是，自由量裁的非國防開支包括經濟成長所必需的專案，而經濟成長對美國未來繁榮和鞏固全球領導地位是萬萬不可缺少的。
首先，經濟成長是減少國家預算赤字最有效的手段。經濟成長率越快，無需通過上調稅率，政府就可以獲得更多收入。收入越多，財政赤字就會越小。
再者，經濟成長對於信守每一代美國人都有機會比上一代更富強這一承諾，尤為關鍵。這一承諾對每一個美國人來說都極為重要，被大眾稱為美國夢。
經濟成長對非美國籍的外國人來說也同樣重要。經濟成長可以確保美國在全球不斷擴張責任，這不僅有助於全球經濟，同時有助於維護歐洲，東亞以及中亞的穩定。
正如湯瑪斯‧弗里曼和我在我們即將出版的新書《這就是曾經的我們---美國是如何落後於自己扶持起的世界以及美國如何重新崛起》中解釋道：美國經濟繁榮的一個非常重要的因素，是國有和私有的夥伴關係制度，這種制度可以追溯到美國剛建國之時。但這種制度已經被8月2號建立的預算削減模式所破壞。
這種夥伴關係有五個組成部分：為了培養出一批掌握尖端技術的人才，而不斷擴大教育普及程度；在例如道路、能源工廠、貿易港口等基礎設施上投資；為了擴大尖端領域方面的知識，從而研發新產品給其研究及其發展注入資金；制定能夠吸引和留住從國外湧來的人才的移民政策；制定經濟管理條例，既可以避免像2008年一樣金融體系接近崩潰的情況，又不至於過於嚴格苛刻，以至於扼殺了能夠推動經濟成長的冒險精神和創新能力。
美國經濟成長需要資金，而那些資金包含在了自由量裁非國防聯邦預算中，從長遠來看，減少這些項目會降低美國的經濟成長，帶來國內外的負面影響。藉由減少教育、基礎設施、研究及發展方面的開支，就好比砍掉三根手指來試圖減肥──絕大部分的重量依然存在，但是人一生的前途將會受到極大的損失。
通過減少赤字來上調債務限額是正確的，但是8月2號的法案的方法是錯誤的。除非能夠有更多赤字削減來自減少福利以及增加收入，而並非來自對經濟成長極為重要的的專案上，否則就會使美國變得更貧困，更脆弱，也會給世界增加更多的不確定因素。
美國經濟成長需要資金，而那些資金包含在了自由量裁非國防聯邦預算中，從長遠來看，減少這些項目會降低美國的經濟成長，帶來國內外的負面影響。藉由減少教育、基礎設施、研究及發展方面的開支，就好比砍掉三根手指來試圖減肥──絕大部分的重量依然存在，但是人一生的前途將會受到極大的損失。
通過減少赤字來上調債務限額是正確的，但是8月2號的法案的方法是錯誤的。除非能夠有更多赤字削減來自減少福利以及增加收入，而並非來自對經濟成長極為重要的的專案上，否則就會使美國變得更貧困，更脆弱，也會給世界增加更多的不確定因素。
- 作者簡介_邁克爾‧曼德爾巴姆 [ 隱藏 ]邁克爾‧曼德爾巴姆（Michael Mandelbaum），約翰霍普金斯大學高級國際研究外交政策專家，與湯瑪斯‧弗里曼合著有即將出版的新書《曾經---美國是如何落後於自己扶持起的世界以及美國如何重新崛起(That Used To Be Us: How America Fell Behind in the World It Invented and How We Can Come Back.)》
Thursday, August 11, 2011
股災五大教戰守則 - 商業周刊
看起來，引爆全球股災及讓大家開始質疑二次衰退即將來臨的兇手－美國，也已經自顧不暇 ，罕見的國家債信評等降級加上景氣持續低迷不振，這是第一支架不穩；其次歐洲的債信違約國家層出不窮，恐怕出現烽火連環燒，此乃第二支架傾斜。
至於原先全球眾所期盼依賴的中國，近來由於當局緊縮銀根，打壓房市，勞工意識抬頭，業主成本墊高，中小企業瀕臨倒閉潮，股市房市也低迷許久，尚無起色，這是第三支架滑倒； 龐大經濟體的日本， 自從大地震、海嘯後，執政黨政權脆弱之外，迄今竟然也束手無策，這是另外的第四支架疲乏！
我很快的簡單描述現況，讓讀者知道，這次猛然爆發的金融困境，險峻依舊，但也不是世界末日，不用太悲觀！
因為：一、全球資金並未出現流動性不足的問題；二、有些問題存在已久，許多市場的抗體已具免疫力；三、在最恐慌時，保守資金與投機性資金都會大量撤出，瞬間影響各種商品劇烈波動，然而，這僅是短暫的現象；四、等到事情稍微穩定之後，被過度拋售及賤賣的有價值商品，一定會在短期間又快速彈升到合理價位 。
這時候該怎麼做呢？
一、如果原先持股比重不高的人，單筆申購及定期定額還是要持續動作，只有危機出現才有超低的價格讓你便宜買進；二、持股滿檔的人，必須快速檢視部位內容，是否過度集中在風險高的區域或族群，如果是的話，馬上要做調整及調降；三、平時如果做好動態調整組合內容， 股市、債市、現金至少區隔三等分，上下誤差不大的話，則沒有啥好恐慌的；四、面臨景氣可能再度低迷的疑慮，適度拉高現金比重，以防不時之需是有必要的動作；五、除非第一天不管賺賠就馬上出場，不然先冷靜一下，別急著做決策， 觀察幾天再出手也不遲 ，先跑的人，不一定先贏。
至於原先全球眾所期盼依賴的中國，近來由於當局緊縮銀根，打壓房市，勞工意識抬頭，業主成本墊高，中小企業瀕臨倒閉潮，股市房市也低迷許久，尚無起色，這是第三支架滑倒； 龐大經濟體的日本， 自從大地震、海嘯後，執政黨政權脆弱之外，迄今竟然也束手無策，這是另外的第四支架疲乏！
我很快的簡單描述現況，讓讀者知道，這次猛然爆發的金融困境，險峻依舊，但也不是世界末日，不用太悲觀！
因為：一、全球資金並未出現流動性不足的問題；二、有些問題存在已久，許多市場的抗體已具免疫力；三、在最恐慌時，保守資金與投機性資金都會大量撤出，瞬間影響各種商品劇烈波動，然而，這僅是短暫的現象；四、等到事情稍微穩定之後，被過度拋售及賤賣的有價值商品，一定會在短期間又快速彈升到合理價位 。
這時候該怎麼做呢？
一、如果原先持股比重不高的人，單筆申購及定期定額還是要持續動作，只有危機出現才有超低的價格讓你便宜買進；二、持股滿檔的人，必須快速檢視部位內容，是否過度集中在風險高的區域或族群，如果是的話，馬上要做調整及調降；三、平時如果做好動態調整組合內容， 股市、債市、現金至少區隔三等分，上下誤差不大的話，則沒有啥好恐慌的；四、面臨景氣可能再度低迷的疑慮，適度拉高現金比重，以防不時之需是有必要的動作；五、除非第一天不管賺賠就馬上出場，不然先冷靜一下，別急著做決策， 觀察幾天再出手也不遲 ，先跑的人，不一定先贏。
【延伸閱讀】看盤報告
台股經破底、洗盤及融資追繳斷頭後，籌碼即刻又大幅換手，此時最易看清楚哪些股票有特定人士在照顧，這些屆時將是反彈急先鋒；如果想要搶跌深反彈者，上述標的可列優先觀察名單，「富在險中求」的時機又來了。
台股
1.味全：盛夏及中元節，飲料需求大
2.寶島科：轉投資金可國際，獲利豐、大陸布點潛力大
3.冠軍：積極開發附加價值產品，獲利成長
外匯瑞郎：純屬避險功能，漲幅已大
基金1.印尼基金：年輕有活力，股市具潛力
2.亞洲債券基金：亞洲國家持續升息中
3.泰國基金：政權和平轉移，可望有新氣象
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