Tuesday August 30, 2011
By CHOONG EN HAN
han@thestar.com.my
Higher requirements for nursing course affect student intake
KUALA LUMPUR: Masterskill Education Group Bhd (MEGB) took a beating yesterday, with its share price losing 21 sen or 13.7% to close at RM1.32 after reporting a less than stellar second-quarter results last Friday. The stock has been on continuous downtrend since it listed at RM3.80 in May 2010.
Bursa Malaysia closed after the morning session yesterday owing to the Hari Raya and National Day holidays.
Research houses also downgraded the prospects of Masterskill Education Group Bhd, following its weak second-quarter results, which were attributed to lower student enrolments arising from the higher nursing minimum entry requirements and the change in the timing for public universities' intake.
In a note yesterday, CIMB Research said that it was taken aback by the impact of the higher entry requirements for the nursing diploma on net student intake from Janunary to June 2011.
“Earlier this year, the Malaysian Nursing Board raised the entry requirements from three credits to five credits, which affected student numbers slightly in the first quarter of 2011,” it said, adding that second -quarter student numbers were expected to recover but the student intake trend was weaker during MEGB's enrolment drive in the past three to four months.
It said that in the medium term, student intake prospects were unexciting and margins would be under pressure.
The National Higher Education Fund Corp's recent loan scheme revision was viewed as negative given that Masterskill's average diploma course fee is RM52,000, and the new policy is enforced industry-wide and is expected to be more detrimental to small colleges that are highly dependent on nursing diploma students.
For the health sciences segment, loan allocation per student for all health science-related diploma courses is reduced from RM60,000 to RM45,000 and applies to all new and existing courses for all campuses and college locations.
“Student growth for the next two to three years does not look as exciting as before. We previously assumed a 10%-13% annual student population growth for financial year 2011 to 2013. This no longer looks achievable. We are now looking at growth of 8%-7% annually,” it said.
CIMB Research downgraded the group to “neutral” with a target price of RM1.71 from RM3.48 previously, saying that changes in industry-wide policies since Masterskill's listing have buffeted the market leader.
It said prospects for strong growth of student numbers for its existing campuses were unexciting although it still held a long-term positive view on the group's expansion into non-healthcare courses, new university campus and move into degree and medical degree courses.
To be noted is the fact that CIMB Investment Bank Bhd was the principal adviser, retail underwriter as well as the joint global co-ordinator and joint bookrunners together with Goldman Sachs for the group's initial public offering.
Meanwhile, HwangDBS Vickers Research lowered its new student intake assumptions to 4,000 from 6,500 in 2011, 5,100 from 7,300 in 2012 and 5,700 from 8,100 in 2013, with its year-to-date enrolment rate suggesting MEGB could struggle to meet its expectations which were already lowered amid tough business environment.
The research house had also downgraded the stock to “fully valued” from “buy” previously with a lower target price of RM1.20 versus RM2.50 previously.
News had also resurfaced that private equity firm Crescent Point Investment Holdings Ltd, founded by former Morgan Stanley bankers, may sell its 21.5% stake in MEGB.
In 2009, it was speculated that the firm was looking to divest its 65% stake then in South-East Asia's largest nursing and healthcare college operator for a reported value of between US$200mil and US$250mil. However, the report was refuted by the Singapore-based firm's partner and managing director Richard Scanlon then.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Friday, August 26, 2011
商業周刊-封面摘要-金融海嘯會捲土重來嗎？
Q1.這次全球股災主因是什麼？
A：這次股災發生的主因，在於政府或中央銀行刺激經濟無力，引起投資人對經濟悲觀。對比歷次的股災中，和目前情況最接近的就是日本在90年代的大泡沫結束後的大崩盤。
根據淡江大學產業經濟系教授莊孟翰的研究，1989年時日本住宅用地最高價-東京千代田區，1200萬日元/平方公尺，當時匯價約9萬美元/平方公尺（約新臺幣每坪981.8萬元）。將近一千萬元新台幣才買到一坪土地，在這樣瘋狂的泡沫行情下，終於導致日後日本經濟重創。
同年12月底，東京股市日經二二五指數收盤3萬8915點收盤之新高紀錄，但隨後房市泡沫，日本陷入長達22年經濟蕭條，從1991年到至2005年，日本六大城市住宅用地價格平均下跌六成五，商用土地價格暴跌八成七，而日經二二五指數截至今年8月19日收盤指數為8719點。
但日本經濟的走勢是否是唯一可能劇本？答案也不盡然，因為以香港1997年房地產泡沫後來看，莊孟翰研究後發現，1997年前六年內香港房地產及相關產業之增加值占香港GDP之四成，光是房地產泡沫和股市泡沫製造了七兆港元的「額外財富」，但之後房價一路下跌，至2003年SARS期間，房價跌幅從高點往下算已經損失六成五，房地產和股市總市值共損失約八兆港元，比同期香港的生產總值還多。
歷經金融海嘯後，今年上半年也曾達到2萬3000點附近，截至八月十九日收盤在1萬9399點，依照高於當初1997年時的高點。
日本、香港是典型在泡沫後股市重挫六成以上，房地產也大幅修正，但結局是香港有再起，日本則趴地不起；尤其在政府不斷刺激下仍然找不到藥方，以這次歐美在持續貨幣寬鬆下振興經濟卻相當有限，這正是此次股災要特別提防的地方。
Q2.本次股市災難與過去有何不同?
A：對比過去股災發生經驗，本次股災有兩點不同。
首先，利率條件不同：過去股災發生原因多半與高利率有關，不論是1987年惡性通膨、1998年亞洲金融風暴、2000年科技泡沫、2008年金融海嘯，當時的利率水平都並非眼前低利率；上述幾次股災發生前的利率水準最低也有5.25%，最高還曾高達17%。但美國聯準會已經宣布近乎零的利率政策將維持維持兩年，最快要到2013年中才有可能調整。
其次，企業庫存問題不嚴重。對比1990年、2000年、2008年三次股災發生前的企業界表現，都出現庫存甚高情況。根據美國聯準會統計，三次企業庫存銷售比(Inventory to Sales Ratio)都起碼高達1.44以上，數據越高表示庫存越多，銷售越少，但眼前美國企業庫存銷售比才1.28，接近2006當時水準，而今年第一季景氣最佳時，庫存銷售比也僅1.25，換言之並非庫存壓力拖垮經濟。
◎倒閉和裁員潮會出現嗎？
◎投資全被套牢怎麼辦？
◎矽谷最令人害怕的人 專利軍火頭子
完整精采內文請見《商業周刊》1240期，全省各大便利商店同步販售
YTL Corp net profit soars in Q4
Friday August 26, 2011
Cement business, offshore property development shine
PETALING JAYA: YTL Corp Bhd, whose interests range from construction and property to information and communications technology solutions, posted a 196.79% surge in net profit to RM304.01mil for the fourth quarter ended June 30 compared with the corresponding quarter a year ago.
This was achieved on better performance of its cement business and offshore property development activities.
Revenue for the quarter was 14.94% higher at RM5.42bil compared with the same quarter a year ago. For the full year, the company's net profit rose 23.62% to RM1.06bil on revenue that gained 12.51% to RM18.57bil.
Yeoh: ‘The group’s reorganisation is now pending completion.’
Group managing director Tan Sri Francis Yeoh Sock Ping said in a statement that net profit and revenue was primarily driven by the power generation, water and cement operations as well as overseas property development projects.
“In July this year, we entered into an agreement with Japan's Marubeni Corp, a key player in the international utilities market, with a view of enabling Marubeni to co-invest with us via the holding company for the group's 35% equity investment in PT Jawa Power, which owns a 1,220MW power station in Indonesia,” he said.
Yeoh added that the partnership formed the basis of cooperation on potential investments and future opportunities in the global utilities industry.
“During the year under review, we continued to make progress on the reorganisation of the group's property development assets and companies which was approved by shareholders this month and is now pending completion,” he said.
Yeoh said the reorganisation would streamline operations by housing the group's property development assets and projects within the same division to leverage on operational and developmental efficiencies and synergies.
YTL Cement Bhd posted a 19.08% rise in net profit to RM80.10mil and a 28.52% gain in revenue to RM635.04mil for the fourth quarter ended June 30 compared with the same period a year ago on higher demand from the construction industry as well as improved performance of overseas operations.
YTL Power International Bhd posted a 1.41% decline in net profit to RM451.56mil on a 13.62% rise in revenue of RM4.26bil mainly from contributions from foreign operations including in power generation, water and sewerage services as well as merchant multi-utility businesses and communications.
YTL Land and Development Bhd posted a 154.36% jump in net profit to RM9.76mil owing to higher other operating income and lower operating expenses.
However, revenue tumbled 76.59% to RM8.80mil on lower revenue recognition from both construction and property development segments due to completion of certain projects during the period under review and the timing difference of new project launches.
YTL E-Solutions Bhd's net profit advanced 98.69% to RM6.89mil mainly due to higher fee income earned from WiMAX spectrum on a 135.45% jump in revenue to RM22.44mil.
Cement business, offshore property development shine
PETALING JAYA: YTL Corp Bhd, whose interests range from construction and property to information and communications technology solutions, posted a 196.79% surge in net profit to RM304.01mil for the fourth quarter ended June 30 compared with the corresponding quarter a year ago.
This was achieved on better performance of its cement business and offshore property development activities.
Revenue for the quarter was 14.94% higher at RM5.42bil compared with the same quarter a year ago. For the full year, the company's net profit rose 23.62% to RM1.06bil on revenue that gained 12.51% to RM18.57bil.
Yeoh: ‘The group’s reorganisation is now pending completion.’
Group managing director Tan Sri Francis Yeoh Sock Ping said in a statement that net profit and revenue was primarily driven by the power generation, water and cement operations as well as overseas property development projects.
“In July this year, we entered into an agreement with Japan's Marubeni Corp, a key player in the international utilities market, with a view of enabling Marubeni to co-invest with us via the holding company for the group's 35% equity investment in PT Jawa Power, which owns a 1,220MW power station in Indonesia,” he said.
Yeoh added that the partnership formed the basis of cooperation on potential investments and future opportunities in the global utilities industry.
“During the year under review, we continued to make progress on the reorganisation of the group's property development assets and companies which was approved by shareholders this month and is now pending completion,” he said.
Yeoh said the reorganisation would streamline operations by housing the group's property development assets and projects within the same division to leverage on operational and developmental efficiencies and synergies.
YTL Cement Bhd posted a 19.08% rise in net profit to RM80.10mil and a 28.52% gain in revenue to RM635.04mil for the fourth quarter ended June 30 compared with the same period a year ago on higher demand from the construction industry as well as improved performance of overseas operations.
YTL Power International Bhd posted a 1.41% decline in net profit to RM451.56mil on a 13.62% rise in revenue of RM4.26bil mainly from contributions from foreign operations including in power generation, water and sewerage services as well as merchant multi-utility businesses and communications.
YTL Land and Development Bhd posted a 154.36% jump in net profit to RM9.76mil owing to higher other operating income and lower operating expenses.
However, revenue tumbled 76.59% to RM8.80mil on lower revenue recognition from both construction and property development segments due to completion of certain projects during the period under review and the timing difference of new project launches.
YTL E-Solutions Bhd's net profit advanced 98.69% to RM6.89mil mainly due to higher fee income earned from WiMAX spectrum on a 135.45% jump in revenue to RM22.44mil.
Genting 2Q net profit dips 8.92% to RM673.22m
KUALA LUMPUR: GENTING BHD [] net profit for the second quarter ended June 30, 2011 fell 8.92% to RM673.22 million from RM739.17 million a year earlier, while revenue for the quarter rose 9.3% to RM4.46 billion from RM4.09 billion in 2010.
Genting said on Thursday, Aug 25 that its earnings per share was 18.17 sen compared to 20 sen in 2010, while net asset per share was RM4.53.
Genting declared a gross interim dividend of 3.5 sen per share of 10 sen each, to be paid on Oct 27.
For the six months ended June 30, Genting’s net profit jumped 54.2% to RM1.49 billion from RM971.61 million in 2010, on the back of a 29.9% increase in revenue to RM9.35 billion from RM7.19 billion.
Reviewing its performance for the six months ended June 30, Genting said the increase in revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) came mainly from the leisure & hospitality, power and PLANTATION [] divisions.
Revenue from the Singapore IR increased compared with revenue in the first half of 2010 due to a first full half year of operations, it said.
The higher revenue contributed to the higher adjusted EBITDA in the current half year, it said.
“The revenue and adjusted EBITDA of the leisure and hospitality business in Malaysia increased in the current half year due to higher hold percentage in the premium players business,” it said.
Genting said the increase in revenue of its power division arose mainly from the Meizhou Wan power plant as a result of higher dispatch in the current half year.
The current half year revenue had also included a compensation from the Fujian provincial government in respect of an increase in tariff rate, it said.
The increase in the adjusted EBITDA was attributable to the higher revenue in the current half year, it said.
Meanwhile, it said the plantation division’s revenue and adjusted EBITDA in the current half year increased due mainly to higher palm products prices and higher FFB production.
It also said there was no revenue from the oil and gas division following the disposal of Genting Oil & Gas (China) Limited (GOGCL) on Dec 10, 2010.
The loss incurred during the current half year arose mainly from general and administrative expenses, it said.
On its prospects, Genting said it was cautious on the outlook of the leisure and hospitality industry as the global economy was showing signs of increasing uncertainties.
It said the power division might be affected by higher coal prices which would however be mitigated by an increase in tariff rate for the Meizhou Wan power plant which has been agreed with the provincial government and expected higher summer generation hours.
Meanwhile, it said the performance of Genting Plantations Bhd was expected to be better than that of the previous financial year.
Genting said on Thursday, Aug 25 that its earnings per share was 18.17 sen compared to 20 sen in 2010, while net asset per share was RM4.53.
Genting declared a gross interim dividend of 3.5 sen per share of 10 sen each, to be paid on Oct 27.
For the six months ended June 30, Genting’s net profit jumped 54.2% to RM1.49 billion from RM971.61 million in 2010, on the back of a 29.9% increase in revenue to RM9.35 billion from RM7.19 billion.
Reviewing its performance for the six months ended June 30, Genting said the increase in revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) came mainly from the leisure & hospitality, power and PLANTATION [] divisions.
Revenue from the Singapore IR increased compared with revenue in the first half of 2010 due to a first full half year of operations, it said.
The higher revenue contributed to the higher adjusted EBITDA in the current half year, it said.
“The revenue and adjusted EBITDA of the leisure and hospitality business in Malaysia increased in the current half year due to higher hold percentage in the premium players business,” it said.
Genting said the increase in revenue of its power division arose mainly from the Meizhou Wan power plant as a result of higher dispatch in the current half year.
The current half year revenue had also included a compensation from the Fujian provincial government in respect of an increase in tariff rate, it said.
The increase in the adjusted EBITDA was attributable to the higher revenue in the current half year, it said.
Meanwhile, it said the plantation division’s revenue and adjusted EBITDA in the current half year increased due mainly to higher palm products prices and higher FFB production.
It also said there was no revenue from the oil and gas division following the disposal of Genting Oil & Gas (China) Limited (GOGCL) on Dec 10, 2010.
The loss incurred during the current half year arose mainly from general and administrative expenses, it said.
On its prospects, Genting said it was cautious on the outlook of the leisure and hospitality industry as the global economy was showing signs of increasing uncertainties.
It said the power division might be affected by higher coal prices which would however be mitigated by an increase in tariff rate for the Meizhou Wan power plant which has been agreed with the provincial government and expected higher summer generation hours.
Meanwhile, it said the performance of Genting Plantations Bhd was expected to be better than that of the previous financial year.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
分享锦集：谈价值投资法
Aug 19th, 2011 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集
股票投资方法很多，其中最常用的两种为：
⑴价值投资法（Value Investing）。
⑵技术分析法（Technical, Analysis），又叫图表家（Chartist）。
两者都有悠久的历史和众多的信徒，说明了各有所长，因为任何不能产生效果的方法，都会在时间的长河中自动消失，两者能历久不衰，说明了两者都有其存在的硬道理。
长期苦练
对我来说，任何能为你赚钱的方法，就是适合你的方法。
方法无谓好坏，就好像学武的人，无论是用剑、用刀或用棍，只要使到炉火纯青，都可成为武林高手。
但是，有一点是肯定的，天下没有免费的午餐，无论选择那种方法，都必须长期苦练，才有可能登峰造极，达到纯熟的地步，拳不离手，曲不离口，是经验之谈。
价值投资者把注意力集中在企业上，他们深信，股价的表现决定于公司的业绩表现，只要业绩标青，股价自然跟着上升，同样的，业绩表现差劲，股价跟着滑落，业绩和股价，有如实体与影子，并驾齐驱。
短期来说，股价与业绩可能脱节，长期来说，两者必然同步起落。
他们相信，业绩是根，股价是枝叶，本固则枝荣，如果根腐烂了，枝叶自然就枯死。所以，注重股价，不理业绩，是舍本逐末，非投资之正道。
基本强稳
价值投资者，是以股票的“价值”作为投资的标准。
而“价值”源自业绩，业绩源自基本面，价值好比是一间屋子，基本因素是屋子的柱子、墙壁、地基及门窗，是组成屋子的“组件”。
惟有基本因素强稳，才能创造业绩，有良好的业绩表现，股票才有价值，有价值，股价才会起。
价值投资者的目的，是找出价值被低估的股票，买进长期持有，等到市场发现其价值，进行扯购，股价跟着上升，最后反映其真实价值，或者价值被市场高估时，投资者才脱售其股票，套取利润。请看附表：
公司盈利决定股价
图一显示股价与价值之间有一个很大的缺口，当缺口越大，越值得买进，这种情形，多数出现在熊市中。
通常股价会在低水平徘徊一段时间（3-5个月不等），反向投资者会在股价停滞不动时，检视其基本面，评估其价值，如果发现股票价值被严重低估，而业绩又可能在经济复苏时回升，就可以买进，紧握不放，争取厚利。
图二，在牛市中，股价远远超过价值，再投资下去，回酬已不具吸引力，就应该脱售离场。
在图一和图二的情形，投资者可以用市价总值（Market capitalisation）作为指导。
假设你要创设一家这种规模的公司，你要投资2亿令吉，如今公司的市值（即买进整家公司所付出的代价）只是1亿令吉，你以半价买进这家现成公司，可以节省数年的时间，不是比创建新公司更合算吗？
你买进1万股和买进1亿股，理由必须是相同的。
图三显示股价已完全反映其价值，那么，要继续投资下去还是套利，取决于公司的业绩表现。如果业绩长期向上，那么拿得越久，赚得越多，你可以永远不卖，许多富豪，都是这样成就的。
千万要记住，你买的是公司的股份，股份的价值决定于公司盈利，当公司的业绩持续走下坡，而且在可以预见的将来，不大可能转亏为盈时，就不要犹豫不决，一定要脱售，以免全军覆没。
股市是最不理智的地方，在熊市中，投资者往往以半价，甚至五分之一的价格，抛售其股票，对股票有研究，了解股票价值的投资者，往往可以用低得离谱的价格买到好股。
机会属于坚持反向的价值投资者。
股票投资方法很多，其中最常用的两种为：
⑴价值投资法（Value Investing）。
⑵技术分析法（Technical, Analysis），又叫图表家（Chartist）。
两者都有悠久的历史和众多的信徒，说明了各有所长，因为任何不能产生效果的方法，都会在时间的长河中自动消失，两者能历久不衰，说明了两者都有其存在的硬道理。
长期苦练
对我来说，任何能为你赚钱的方法，就是适合你的方法。
方法无谓好坏，就好像学武的人，无论是用剑、用刀或用棍，只要使到炉火纯青，都可成为武林高手。
但是，有一点是肯定的，天下没有免费的午餐，无论选择那种方法，都必须长期苦练，才有可能登峰造极，达到纯熟的地步，拳不离手，曲不离口，是经验之谈。
价值投资者把注意力集中在企业上，他们深信，股价的表现决定于公司的业绩表现，只要业绩标青，股价自然跟着上升，同样的，业绩表现差劲，股价跟着滑落，业绩和股价，有如实体与影子，并驾齐驱。
短期来说，股价与业绩可能脱节，长期来说，两者必然同步起落。
他们相信，业绩是根，股价是枝叶，本固则枝荣，如果根腐烂了，枝叶自然就枯死。所以，注重股价，不理业绩，是舍本逐末，非投资之正道。
基本强稳
价值投资者，是以股票的“价值”作为投资的标准。
而“价值”源自业绩，业绩源自基本面，价值好比是一间屋子，基本因素是屋子的柱子、墙壁、地基及门窗，是组成屋子的“组件”。
惟有基本因素强稳，才能创造业绩，有良好的业绩表现，股票才有价值，有价值，股价才会起。
价值投资者的目的，是找出价值被低估的股票，买进长期持有，等到市场发现其价值，进行扯购，股价跟着上升，最后反映其真实价值，或者价值被市场高估时，投资者才脱售其股票，套取利润。请看附表：
公司盈利决定股价
图一显示股价与价值之间有一个很大的缺口，当缺口越大，越值得买进，这种情形，多数出现在熊市中。
通常股价会在低水平徘徊一段时间（3-5个月不等），反向投资者会在股价停滞不动时，检视其基本面，评估其价值，如果发现股票价值被严重低估，而业绩又可能在经济复苏时回升，就可以买进，紧握不放，争取厚利。
图二，在牛市中，股价远远超过价值，再投资下去，回酬已不具吸引力，就应该脱售离场。
在图一和图二的情形，投资者可以用市价总值（Market capitalisation）作为指导。
假设你要创设一家这种规模的公司，你要投资2亿令吉，如今公司的市值（即买进整家公司所付出的代价）只是1亿令吉，你以半价买进这家现成公司，可以节省数年的时间，不是比创建新公司更合算吗？
你买进1万股和买进1亿股，理由必须是相同的。
图三显示股价已完全反映其价值，那么，要继续投资下去还是套利，取决于公司的业绩表现。如果业绩长期向上，那么拿得越久，赚得越多，你可以永远不卖，许多富豪，都是这样成就的。
千万要记住，你买的是公司的股份，股份的价值决定于公司盈利，当公司的业绩持续走下坡，而且在可以预见的将来，不大可能转亏为盈时，就不要犹豫不决，一定要脱售，以免全军覆没。
股市是最不理智的地方，在熊市中，投资者往往以半价，甚至五分之一的价格，抛售其股票，对股票有研究，了解股票价值的投资者，往往可以用低得离谱的价格买到好股。
机会属于坚持反向的价值投资者。
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
45%受訪民眾賠錢捨不得停損 被套牢 加碼攤平就好？
撰文者：林雅惠 2011-08-01
根據《Smart智富》月刊與雅虎奇摩理財網合作的調查「投資賠錢了，你怎麼做？」結果顯示，今年以來「賺少賠多」與「全部都賠」的投資人合計約7成，無怪乎投資人在網上悲嘆：「還會不會再跌？現在到底該不該出場？」、「不是說有選前行情嗎？」
討論歸討論，真正認賠停損的投資人，卻屬少數，調查顯示，當投資人賠錢時，有高達45%抱持「總有一天價格會回來」的態度。
「這是標準的鴕鳥心態，很要不得。」政大金融系教授殷乃平說，面對投資虧損，很多人以為置之不理就有機會「起死回生」，事實上，若投資標的不在對的產業前景上，怎麼樣也不可能回到原來的投資價位。不如坦承投資失敗，認賠出場，以免血本無歸。
投資人不僅捨不得停損，更有高達56%的投資人會在套牢時選擇加碼攤平，絲毫不怕愈攤愈貧。
處理虧損要當機立斷
才是長期賺錢關鍵
.為什麼停損這麼難？財務行為學界曾經根據此現象研究投資人的心理，提出「前景理論」，亦即「投資100萬元，上半年賺50%，下半年卻虧了50%，投資人只會記得賠，不會記得賺的經驗。」
也就是說，賠1塊錢的痛苦，勝過賺1塊錢的快樂，因此多數投資人傾向「避賠」，寧願套牢當鴕鳥，也不甘心停損。
不過，投資高手們都知道，正確處理賠錢的投資，才是長期賺錢的關鍵。以投資大師索羅斯為例，他在1987年錯估情勢，大手筆放空日本，結果日本市場反而走高，他當機立斷出場，原則即是：「先求存活再求致富」，如果這次連本都虧光了，下一次又怎麼可能有機會賺錢？
「很多人住進套房以後就不敢動，結果資產永遠是負的，翻不了身。一定要學會如何判斷接下來的情勢，採取行動，才有機會打敗負資產的局面。」張翠玲說。
究竟該怎麼處理賠錢投資才是正確的方法？立即停損？或是有限度的加碼攤平？以下為《Smart智富》月刊根據台股投資達人艾力克斯、施羅德投信副總張翠玲以及殷乃平等專家，綜合歸納出3個方法，下一次當你股票套牢時，可以作為參考。
【達人教戰】投資停損3心法，打敗負資產
施羅德投信副總－張翠玲、政大金融系教授－殷乃平、台股投資達人－艾力克斯
心法1》不要硬拗，看錯就要先認錯
投資套牢了，如果堅定市場是錯的，自己才是對的，那你注定是輸家，賠錢第一課就是「不要跟市場爭辯」，下跌一定有下跌的道理，先檢討自己為什麼買到賠錢的 投資。以股票為例，當初是否聽信名嘴搶進「明牌」？如果真的聽信明牌買進，現在賠了，那就乾脆出場吧！因為當初糊裡糊塗地買，賠的時候也會是糊裡糊塗地 賠，不如當下認賠殺出，不要再硬拗，以免愈賠愈多，也當做花錢買經驗。
心法2》有前景的投資才可續抱或攤平
如果股票下跌是因為大盤整體表現不好，或是某個有前景國家的基金是因為世界總經表現不好，或遇上金融風暴而下跌，這表示挑錯買點，或是運氣不佳，而自己的投資標的本質還不錯，那麼或可以續抱，或採取有限度的定期定額攤平法。
艾力克斯建議，投資一定要勤做功課，「賺要知道自己為什麼賺，賠也要知道賠的原因在哪。」以投資股票為例，他建議定期要記錄：
1.個股的營收、獲利、毛利
2.大盤相對位置
3.總體經濟變化，包括景氣燈號、利率走勢
4.選舉等非經濟因素
「從這些因素可判斷這個產業及個股的優勢還在不在？若還是有優勢，那就續抱，等大環境轉好，總有一天可以回本；若是沒有前景，趕快出場，不要再賠下去了。」艾力克斯說。
張翠玲建議，若評估還有前景，可再額外加碼，以基金來說，用定期定額來攤平成本是一個不錯的長期穩健投資術。「假設當初用100元買1單位，現在跌了，100元可以買到3個單位，這樣成本愈拉愈低，當市場反轉向上的時候，翻身的機會也比較大。」
心法3》垃圾不會變黃金，利用低檔轉換到有前景的標的
不論是股票或基金，當理性評估過後，發現該股、該產業、或該國經濟沒有前景，就要趁早認賠，把變現的錢拿去投資具備潛力的標的。特別是市場整體大跌時，此 時好、壞標的一起跌，但接下來，好標的會出頭，沒前景的標的會繼續沉淪，所以當市場全面性重挫時，一定要重新檢視是否需要轉換投資標的。
艾力克斯舉例，像印度等標的，當初買進的優勢在於勞力成本低以及強大的內需市場，但現在面臨通貨膨脹以及工資上漲的壓力，續抱的動力就沒那麼強了。
俗話說：「進廚房，就不要怕熱」，同樣的，「敢投資就不要怕虧損」，如果能在每一次的失敗經驗裡聽取教訓，就能奠定下一次成功的基礎。
根據《Smart智富》月刊與雅虎奇摩理財網合作的調查「投資賠錢了，你怎麼做？」結果顯示，今年以來「賺少賠多」與「全部都賠」的投資人合計約7成，無怪乎投資人在網上悲嘆：「還會不會再跌？現在到底該不該出場？」、「不是說有選前行情嗎？」
討論歸討論，真正認賠停損的投資人，卻屬少數，調查顯示，當投資人賠錢時，有高達45%抱持「總有一天價格會回來」的態度。
「這是標準的鴕鳥心態，很要不得。」政大金融系教授殷乃平說，面對投資虧損，很多人以為置之不理就有機會「起死回生」，事實上，若投資標的不在對的產業前景上，怎麼樣也不可能回到原來的投資價位。不如坦承投資失敗，認賠出場，以免血本無歸。
投資人不僅捨不得停損，更有高達56%的投資人會在套牢時選擇加碼攤平，絲毫不怕愈攤愈貧。
處理虧損要當機立斷
才是長期賺錢關鍵
.為什麼停損這麼難？財務行為學界曾經根據此現象研究投資人的心理，提出「前景理論」，亦即「投資100萬元，上半年賺50%，下半年卻虧了50%，投資人只會記得賠，不會記得賺的經驗。」
也就是說，賠1塊錢的痛苦，勝過賺1塊錢的快樂，因此多數投資人傾向「避賠」，寧願套牢當鴕鳥，也不甘心停損。
不過，投資高手們都知道，正確處理賠錢的投資，才是長期賺錢的關鍵。以投資大師索羅斯為例，他在1987年錯估情勢，大手筆放空日本，結果日本市場反而走高，他當機立斷出場，原則即是：「先求存活再求致富」，如果這次連本都虧光了，下一次又怎麼可能有機會賺錢？
「很多人住進套房以後就不敢動，結果資產永遠是負的，翻不了身。一定要學會如何判斷接下來的情勢，採取行動，才有機會打敗負資產的局面。」張翠玲說。
究竟該怎麼處理賠錢投資才是正確的方法？立即停損？或是有限度的加碼攤平？以下為《Smart智富》月刊根據台股投資達人艾力克斯、施羅德投信副總張翠玲以及殷乃平等專家，綜合歸納出3個方法，下一次當你股票套牢時，可以作為參考。
【達人教戰】投資停損3心法，打敗負資產
施羅德投信副總－張翠玲、政大金融系教授－殷乃平、台股投資達人－艾力克斯
心法1》不要硬拗，看錯就要先認錯
投資套牢了，如果堅定市場是錯的，自己才是對的，那你注定是輸家，賠錢第一課就是「不要跟市場爭辯」，下跌一定有下跌的道理，先檢討自己為什麼買到賠錢的 投資。以股票為例，當初是否聽信名嘴搶進「明牌」？如果真的聽信明牌買進，現在賠了，那就乾脆出場吧！因為當初糊裡糊塗地買，賠的時候也會是糊裡糊塗地 賠，不如當下認賠殺出，不要再硬拗，以免愈賠愈多，也當做花錢買經驗。
心法2》有前景的投資才可續抱或攤平
如果股票下跌是因為大盤整體表現不好，或是某個有前景國家的基金是因為世界總經表現不好，或遇上金融風暴而下跌，這表示挑錯買點，或是運氣不佳，而自己的投資標的本質還不錯，那麼或可以續抱，或採取有限度的定期定額攤平法。
艾力克斯建議，投資一定要勤做功課，「賺要知道自己為什麼賺，賠也要知道賠的原因在哪。」以投資股票為例，他建議定期要記錄：
1.個股的營收、獲利、毛利
2.大盤相對位置
3.總體經濟變化，包括景氣燈號、利率走勢
4.選舉等非經濟因素
「從這些因素可判斷這個產業及個股的優勢還在不在？若還是有優勢，那就續抱，等大環境轉好，總有一天可以回本；若是沒有前景，趕快出場，不要再賠下去了。」艾力克斯說。
張翠玲建議，若評估還有前景，可再額外加碼，以基金來說，用定期定額來攤平成本是一個不錯的長期穩健投資術。「假設當初用100元買1單位，現在跌了，100元可以買到3個單位，這樣成本愈拉愈低，當市場反轉向上的時候，翻身的機會也比較大。」
心法3》垃圾不會變黃金，利用低檔轉換到有前景的標的
不論是股票或基金，當理性評估過後，發現該股、該產業、或該國經濟沒有前景，就要趁早認賠，把變現的錢拿去投資具備潛力的標的。特別是市場整體大跌時，此 時好、壞標的一起跌，但接下來，好標的會出頭，沒前景的標的會繼續沉淪，所以當市場全面性重挫時，一定要重新檢視是否需要轉換投資標的。
艾力克斯舉例，像印度等標的，當初買進的優勢在於勞力成本低以及強大的內需市場，但現在面臨通貨膨脹以及工資上漲的壓力，續抱的動力就沒那麼強了。
俗話說：「進廚房，就不要怕熱」，同樣的，「敢投資就不要怕虧損」，如果能在每一次的失敗經驗裡聽取教訓，就能奠定下一次成功的基礎。
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