Monday, June 18, 2012

分享锦集:美景集团更上一层楼

May 6th, 2012 | By | Category: 分享锦集
时间将证明,在印尼东加里曼丹的近4万英亩(约1万6000公顷)优质油棕园,将成为美景集团(MKH,前Metro Kajang)皇冠上的宝石。

美景靠产业发展起家,在产业领域奋斗了二十多年,成绩斐然,但每股净利,始终在20仙水平,徘徊不前,无法取得突破。

该公司创办人也就是美景执行董事主席拿督曾贵秋知道,地皮越来越难找,也越来越贵,单靠产业要在业绩上更上一层楼,谈何容易。


看好油棕业潜能

经过深思熟虑,他认为油棕业潜能无限,于是5年前就锁定油棕为发展对象,全力以赴,寻找土地种油棕,皇天不负苦心人,他的努力,在2008年取得突 破,成功的在该年1月18日,买到了东加里曼丹一段近1万6000公顷(近4万英亩)极适合油棕生长的土地,地契为35年,可再延长25年,使他圆了进军 棕油业的梦。

经过4年的拼搏,克服无数困难,一个生机蓬勃的美丽油棕园,终于在东加里曼丹的荒原上冒现。

由于行事低调,行军秘密,只在每年的年报中简报进展,所以,这项计划了解的人不多,投资界也不洞悉其盈利潜能,使美景的股价,只是跟随股市大势,未有特出表现。

实际上,在2008及2009年这两年中所种植的2万3475英亩,已果实累累,首间每小时提炼60公吨鲜果串的榨油厂,已于最近落成,作好迎接大量棕果的准备。

媲美吉隆坡甲洞油棕园

以4年的时间(2008-11)完成1万5000公顷(3万7000英亩,其余为基本设施及少量不适合种植的废地)的种植工作,总投资额约3亿令 吉,预料还要投资5000万令吉,以进一步完善设施,这项计划的最终投资额将达到3亿5000万令吉。今后的工作是把油棕园管理好,随着油棕逐步成熟,盈 利将与日俱增。

22年需翻种

油棕种下后,第三年开始结果,但果实不多,仍无利可图,产量逐年增加,到第五年盈利开始出现,盛产期为6-18,即第六年到第18年之间产量保持颠峰状态约12年,过后产量将走下坡,通常到22年就需要翻种。

美景的1万5000公顷油棕园(只算种植面积),到盛产时期,每年能赚多少钱?

决定油棕园盈利的因素很多,主要的为原棕油价格,每公顷产量,棕果炼油率,成本等。

美景的油棕园,地质属上乘,足以媲美吉隆甲洞的油棕园。我们不妨根据吉隆甲洞的油棕园盈利表现,窥探美景油棕园将来对美景的盈利贡献潜能。

盈利潜能需考量成本

根据吉隆甲洞最近出炉的2011年报,该公司去年每公顷成熟油棕的鲜果产量为22.17公吨,原棕油提炼率为21.44%,每公吨原棕油的生产成本 为1066令吉,以每公吨2958令吉的售价,每公吨净利为9783令吉(以此申算,如果每公吨售价为3000令吉的话,每公顷的净利为9922令吉)。

美景的油棕园属上乘,在产量和炼油率方面可媲美吉隆甲洞,但在成本方面,由于是在印尼,将高过吉隆甲洞,每公吨原棕油的全国生产成本约为1300令吉,美景的成本应该与全国的平均数接近,即每公吨1300令吉。

现在让我们根据以下标准来计算美景油棕园盛产期的盈利潜能:

每公顷鲜果产量:22公吨。
炼油率:21%。
每公顷原棕油产量:4.62公吨
每公吨生产成本:1300令吉



美景每股净利增加额是根据美景以10送1发红股后的实收资本2亿9000万股计算。

以上是单单油棕园对公司的盈利贡献。必须指出的,这是油棕园盛产期的盈利潜能。

由于原棕油价波动激烈,受气候及其他因素影响,鲜果产量可能超过或低过22公吨,成本也可能与1300令吉有出入,所以,实际的盈利可能与上述预测有相当大的差别。

上述数字,只是作为参考而已。

美景集团业务分三类

⑴油棕:如上述。
⑵产业。
⑶建筑承包。

地库足供10年发展

在产业方面,该公司目前的地库足供10年的发展,一路来,产业为该公司带来每股约20仙的盈利,预料未来数年,仍能保持此纪录。

必须指出的是,该公司所拥有的地皮,是在产业暴涨前买进,目前价格最少已上涨了一倍。

轻易保持过去盈利

尤其是Kajang 2的地皮,现在肯定已增值超过一倍以上。

由于地皮买价低廉,而产业价格已暴涨数十巴仙,故可以取得比数年前更高的赚率。

该公司产业部要保持过去的盈利,应是轻而易举的事。

在建筑承包方面,该公司最近取得一项6亿7500万令吉的合约,将依约(IJOK)的一段550英亩属于电讯局的土地,发展为一个新的住宅区,550英亩可建排屋5500间。

这项合约每年价值为1亿3500万令吉,以10%的赚率计算,每年将可以为该公司赚进1350万令吉,每股净利将增加4.65仙。

读者可以根据该公司每年从油棕业、产业和建筑业的盈利贡献,计算出该公司中长期的每股净利,从而预测股价趋向。

必须指出的是,在短、中期,产业和建筑业仍为主要的盈利来源,在中、长期,油棕业将扮演更重要的角色。

油棕业将使美景集团,由一只中规中矩的产业公司,蜕变成具有巨大潜能的成长股。

分享锦集:第二线优质股不难找

May 10th, 2012 | By | Category: 分享锦集 要在股市赚钱,你必须遵守一个原则:你所买的,必须是好股,而买价必须便宜。

一只股票,无论怎样好,如果价格太高,也不可买进。因为价值被高估的股票需要更长的时间,价值才能追上价格。而时间就是金钱,浪费时间就是浪费金钱,浪费金钱的人,不可能致富。

劣股一概不买
你的资金无论多么雄厚,总是有限的,要致富,必须让你有限的资金,赚取最高的回酬。投资者只应买价值被低估的好股,其理至明。


至于劣股,我的原则是一概不买,理由是前途难以预测。

买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是参股做生意,参股于你无法预测其前途的生意,愚不可及。

投资的一个重要原则是先保本,后赚钱,惟有能保本,才能赚钱;如果连“本”都不保,还奢谈什么赚钱?所以股神巴菲特的第一个投资原则是不赔本,第二个原则是不忘第一个原则。

所有投资都有风险,而股票投资风险尤高。所谓“高风险”只不过是指亏本的机会高过赚钱的机会而已。

2因素造成“高风险”

“高风险”基本上是由两个因素造成:

第一个因素是一些投资本质上(By Nature)风险就较高,例如股票投资本质上就比产业投资的风险高。这是投资者无法改变的事实。

第二个因素是投资者多数缺乏遵守一些最简单的投资铁则的意志力。铁则之一就是非好股不买,铁则之二就是非价廉不买,铁则之三就是坚持长期投资。

如果能做到低价买好股作长期投资,股票投资的风险其实相当低,回酬相当丰厚(不亚于产业)。而投资也是件轻松愉快的事。

冷眼方程式:反向+成长+时间=财富,实际上就是三铁则的体现。如能身体力行,很难不赚钱。

二线优质股风险低回酬高

为什么我建议大家选购第二线优质股?因为我认为大部分蓝筹股,其股价已反映其价值,有者价值已被高估(本益比20倍以上),违反了“只买价值被低估股票”的原则。

至于劣股,价格虽低廉,却犯了“前途无法预测”的投资大忌,风险太高,也买不得。只有第二线优质,还有不少价值被低估,买进作为投资,风险低回酬高,进可以攻,退可以守,故我主张大家买第二线优质股。

我在“如何发掘第二线优质股”(2月20日)一文中,提出第二线优质股必须具备的5个条件,许多读者认为这类股票难找,大家觉得难找是因为大家都把 注意力集中在热门股,热门股的价格早已充分反映其价值,价值被低估者寥寥可数,要找符合5个条件的股票,自然是难之又难。如果大家把注意力转移至交投较为 稀少的股项,你会发现,具备5个条件的第二线优质股,不会少过一百家。

不买太过冷门股票

所谓“交投较为稀少”的股票,是指每天成交量虽不高,但仍买得到的股票。我不主张买太过冷门的股票,因为太过冷门,买卖都难,资金容易被困,动弹不 得。例如石矿化学(RC1)是一只第二线优质股,在1令吉60仙的水平,价值肯定是被低估,但如果你买进10万股的话,要脱手难之又难,如果不是其母公司 美佳第一出价2令吉10仙,将其私有化的话,小股东可能长期被困,所以,我主张只买虽然不是热门,但每天最低限度还有数万至十数万股成交量的第二线优质 股,原因在此。

多元电子力争上游

你还是认为“交投较为稀少”的第二线优质股难找吗?让我随手举一个例子,多元电子工业有限公司(Multi-Code Electronics Industries (M) Berhad,简称Multi-Code,工业股)就是一只符合所有5个条件的第二线优质股。

第一,有合理的盈利:多元电子过去2年的每股净利为2010:21.16仙,2011:19.48仙。到2012年7月31日为止财务年的首2季,每股净利已达12.10仙,预料下半年将高过上半年,全年每股净利不难达到25仙,符合“有合理盈利”这个条件。

第二,有合理的股息:该公司上一个财务年派发5仙的免税股息(分两期派发,每期2.5仙),今年已派中期股息3仙,预料年终股息仍为3仙,全年股息 预算为6仙(免税),以目前1令吉10仙的股价计算,周息率为5.5%,(每1000令吉的投资每年可以取得55令吉的免税股息),比银行定期存款利息更 高。预料跟着盈利的上升,股息亦将逐步提高。

第三,现金流平稳:去年现金增加1000多万令吉,现金流入平稳。在今年1月30日第2季结账时,手头有1231万令吉的现金,仅欠银行720万令 吉,对销之后,手头净现金为511万令吉,而在720万令吉的负债中,长期负债(1年以后才摊还)占571万令吉,在现金流入平稳的情况下,财政情况可谓 极佳。

第四,本益比低:以目前1令吉10仙的股价,去年19.48仙的每股净利计算,本益比为5.6倍。今年的每股净利如果能达到25仙的话,预期本益比仅为4.4倍,可谓偏低。(我的要求是本益比8倍以下)。

第五、有成长潜能:该公司过去2个财务年每年的营业量约为1亿令吉,净赚率约为9%。该公司最近与国产车公司签订一项为期5年,价值1亿2500万 令吉的合约,每年供应2500万令吉的车灯给国产车,由今年4-5月开始。今后每年的营业量将增加2500万令吉至1亿2500万令吉。如果仍能保持9% 的净赚率的话,全年净利可望增至1125万令吉,以该公司4440万1股的资本计算,每股净利可望达到25.3仙,比上一年增加30%。

符合“有成长潜能”条件

再看远一点,该公司的成长将来自:
⑴ 福士伟根将在大马装配更多新车,该公司已于数月前跟多元电子接触,接洽供应部份配件。
⑵ 国产车正与该公司洽购更多电子配件。
⑶ 该公司不断的研发新产品,例如正在研发无需车匙就可以开门的感应器。这种装配通常只用在高价车上,多元电子希望大众化价格的汽车亦能采用。
⑷ 该公司将发展至东合其他国家,首期目标锁定印尼和泰国,并预定到2016年时成为一个区域性的车辆电子配件供应厂商。

以上是该公司董事经理在4月2日受财经日报专访时透露的资讯。

所以,多元电子符合“有成长潜能”这个条件。

重视研发

多元电子是一家车辆配件制造公司,为什么不叫“车辆配件公司”,却叫“多元电子”呢?

原来该公司专门制造由电子操控的车辆配件。该公司避重就轻,不与普通车辆配件制造商竞争,而专注于一类难度较高竞争较少的配件,同时极重视研发工作,这是很好的蓝海政策。

生产车辆电子配件

该公司的产品主要为由电子操控的遥控警报器、中央防盗锁、电子操控车窗、退车感应器、电子启动器、车匙、车灯、综合后灯等。

这家具有超过20年历史工厂设在新山的车辆电子配件专门制造商,一向盈利可观,不幸的是在约5年前被人取出超过4000万令吉的现金。该公司正在采 取法律行动追讨,此案在审讯中,故不能评述。不过,此事无损于该公司的赚钱能力,该公司亦已注销全部款项,若追讨成功,将属“额外收入”。现在该公司已走 出此事件的阴影,在财务和营业上,都是一家健全的公司——属第二线优质股。

多元电子只是逾百家第二线优质股之一而已。

如果你勤做功课的话,你会发现更多值得投资的第二线优质股,又何必去冒高风险买劣股呢?

Monday, June 4, 2012

歐債挫全球‧買家市場來臨‧楊肅斌不錯失出手機會

大馬 投資致富 2012-06-03 19:00

24年前,時年34歲的楊肅斌從父親丹斯里楊忠禮手中接過集團領導人的棒子,把原本只從事建築活動的楊忠禮機構,打造成為業務多元化的綜合大集團。

很早就跟隨在父親身邊學習的楊肅斌,從父親身上學到管理實戰經驗外,還吸收了不少知名企業前輩的投資和經營哲學,淬湅更強實力。

站在巨人的肩膀上,讓他因此看得更遠。

楊肅斌不僅善以運籌帷幄,更以眼光獨到著稱,他被形容為熊市贏家,善於在大退潮時捕捉到稍縱即失的商機,買進珍貴難尋的優質資產。

這一輪的歐債危機,令全球資產受到間接傷害,蓄勢待發已久的楊肅斌是否會危情出擊,市場都在摒息以待。

向企業名家汲取經營哲學

楊忠禮集團董事經理丹斯里楊肅斌常把父親對集團的功勞掛在口上,顯示父親的教誨讓他受益良多。但是,還有一位大馬知名企業家傳授給他重要的經營之道,那就是大馬首富兼亞洲糖王郭鶴年。

此外,他在收購策略和企業佈局上,還汲取了股神巴菲特和亞洲首富李嘉誠的投資哲學。

楊肅斌前陣子在香港一個大型酒店投資會議上講述楊忠禮集團旗下酒店業務的管理哲學,談到主業為基礎設施的楊忠禮集團是如何創建一項備受尊敬的酒店業務的時候,楊肅斌提到了一個名字:郭鶴年。他指出,他年輕時從經營香格里拉(Shangri La)酒店集團的大馬首富郭鶴年那裡,學到了一個重要教訓。

郭鶴年:員工是公司最重要資產

郭鶴年曾告訴他,在酒店行業,存在一個“倒金字塔結構”,“員工是公司中最重要的資產”,因為接待客人的不是首席執行員,而是員工。

郭鶴年還告誡說:不要像一些亞洲大亨般將酒店視為面子工程,對員工展現傲慢態度。

收購手法
有巴菲特的影子

美國股神巴菲特也給了楊肅斌不少啟示,楊肅斌喜愛閱讀有關巴菲特的書籍,曾仔細研究過巴菲特的投資哲學,他過往收購資產的手法和策略,幾乎可以讓人看到巴菲特的影子。楊肅斌表示,我們不相信“收購、對其美化然後出售”的哲學。我們購買的是那些我們能夠利用我們的改造能力令其增值的企業。

這一戰略讓楊忠禮集團的收購傾向於有著長期投資視角的公用事業公司,例如新加坡的一家為該國供應三分之一電力的電力公司和澳洲南部的一家電網公司。

在該集團收購英國韋塞水力公司(Wessex Water)的例子裡,楊肅斌驕傲地表示,該公司在過去4年連續獲得英國最優秀水力公司的稱號。他當年以14億英鎊從安然(Enron)手中收購了韋塞水力公司。

楊肅斌還與亞洲首富李嘉誠一樣,更願意在有著普通法傳統和健全監管框架的發達國家投資基礎設施項目。

該集團的海外業務主要集中在澳洲、英國和新加坡,目前佔集團營業額和淨利的約85%比重。

值得一提的是,這些海外資產多是有良好監管條例管制或是和政府簽定特許經營權的資產,因此經營獲得保障,並可提供穩定收入。

楊肅斌說,“這些全都是受條例管制的資產,不會受到歐洲債務危機太顯著的衝擊。我們在澳洲已經有一項200年的特許經營權,即使到了我孫子那一代,此經營權仍然有效。”

“不管市況是好是壞,我們的海外和本地資產將繼續獲利。”

重視法規監管
不急進中國

出於對法規和監管的重視,這也正是楊肅斌沒有急於前去中國修建電廠或供水公司的原因。

楊肅斌坦率的說到,中國需要做的是改善投資環境。他表示:“就連在中國內地建設基礎設施項目的香港公司也失敗了,因為中國政府沒有完全理解法治和契約神聖不可侵犯。”

他談起當年前進中國的往事:“上世紀90年代初,我們與地方政府簽訂了一項協議,準備在江西建設一家電廠。這本應是一項排他協議,但我們發現除了我們這份協議,還有另外6份協議也在簽訂。”

蘋果公司已故創始人喬布斯,也是楊肅斌的學習對象。

楊肅斌在一項成功企業家論壇上講話時,讚賞喬布斯具靈活性且以低成本創造出高智慧產品的商業模式。

“稀缺經營模式”不受歡迎

他說,互聯網與科技的盛行已經改變了人類,如今的消費者,甚至是選民的要求已經大大提高,他們不喜歡缺乏靈活性的東西,追求的是更廉價、更高素質的產品與服務,是我們不可忽視的大趨勢。

“喬布斯的智能手機iPhone正符合他們的需求,其高科技不但改善了人們的生活方式,而且由於零部件在台灣及中國生產與安裝,其價格因此也相當合理。”

楊肅斌說,這就是所謂的“大量經營模式”(abundance model),過往由單一商家壟斷整個市場的“稀缺經營模式”(scarcity model),如今已極為不受消費者歡迎,無論是食品、手機、電信服務及其他領域。

他也以埃及政治體系與歐洲經濟為例子,指企業如果不靈活經營業務,即使是市場壟斷者,終究也會被踢出局。

口袋飽滿
靜待賣家上門

自3年前收購新加坡電力公司以來,楊忠禮集團已經有很長一段時間未在海外重拳出擊,隨著歐洲債務危機越演越烈,或許即將是楊忠禮集團上場,伺機展開重大收購的時刻。

楊肅斌承認,該集團正尋求深具規模的併購行動,以推動業務成長。

他表示,在歐債危機衝擊下,目前市場上已出現了一些機會。

“那些年,我們追逐他們(以尋求交易),但現在,他們主動現身找上我們。”

“我們看到市場上有一些更實在的資產,尤其是在澳洲。而在中國,隨著中國經濟調整,許多購物商場經營者和我們洽談。其它公司也想售賣資產,但我們不一定會購買。”

已開始鑑定收購對象
瞄準酒店零售資產

如今是買家市場,口袋滿滿的楊忠禮集團要精挑細選優質資產。楊肅斌透露,該集團已開始鑑定將收購的資產,尤其是酒店和零售領域的資產。

該集團近期在澳洲收購了3間酒店。楊肅斌在2012年投資大馬大會上說,“在酒店的交易上,業者和私募股權基金開始以更實際的價格脫手資產。如果他們要沽售,他們必須給予買家一個更合理的回酬。我們目前的回酬是7%,需要8%或9%甚至雙倍數的回酬,我們自2008年金融危機後可找到這類回酬的資產,但如今賣家向我們獻售可提供雙位數回酬的資產。”

他表示,4年來我們積極嘗試說服賣家脫售資產,但如今我們處於更佳位置。“我們沒必要手握現金而只獲得3%利息回酬,而必須尋求賺取更高回酬。”

去年,楊忠禮集團試圖收購美國酒店集團Rosewood酒店,但出價低於香港新世界酒店(New World Hospitality)。Rosewood酒店是紐約凱雷酒店(The Carlyle)的所有者。

坐擁140億令吉資金的楊肅斌熱切盼望著一場金融危機的到來,他表示,“泡沫應任由其破裂,就像在任何一個經濟周期中一樣。我希望,不管希臘危機之後發生甚麼,政府既不會縱容,也不會(阻止)根據市價估值的(過程),人是聰明的。這樣我們(在亞洲)才會變得更為自律。”

目前只買不賣

另一方面,楊肅斌排除了任何脫售集團資產的可能性。“我們將不脫售資產,尤其是這些都是極佳的資產,諸如韋塞水力公司,因這是一家全球頂級企業。”

楊忠禮集團在1997/98金融風暴期間,以誘人價格收購吉隆坡黃金地區的3座產業,包括萬豪酒店、升喜購物中心及樂天購物中心,至今仍為人津津樂道。

坐擁龐大現金的楊忠禮集團,在2008年的經濟疲弱期,也趁機收購新加坡的SERAYA電力,此發電廠目前佔新加坡三分一的發電量,最近更從新加坡越過長堤,為國家能源(TENAGA)提供電力。

集團在2008年也收購新加坡的產業信託,間接購置兩棟大廈。

笑看新購電洽談
“沒有協議‧我們仍可生存”

楊肅斌於1988年接管楊忠禮集團,並在弟弟們的幫助下經營。1992年,馬來半島發生一場大規模斷電事故,促使政府允許私人經營電力公司,楊肅斌成功取得一紙獨立發電廠合約,成立首家獨立發電廠,並和國能簽署了日後備受爭議的首份購電合約。

在這份極為優惠的購電合約下,無論楊忠禮電力生產多少電力,國能都須買下。不過,好日子隨著合約將屆滿而即將結束。大馬政府最近要求國能和5家獨立發電公司針對將於7月杪屆滿的購電協議進行一項投標行動。

國能和5家獨立發電公司將必須提供折扣商業電費給政府,為該行業引進更具競爭力的定價機制。但是,只有半數在5年內屆滿的購電協議獲得延長,令獨立發電公司如楊忠禮電力成為焦點。

歡迎採用更具競爭性的機制

楊肅斌並不擔心要求第一代獨立發電公司降低電費的新定價機制,同時歡迎採用更具競爭性的機制。

“我們可以在沒有購電協議下生存。”

他認為獨立發電公司必須像其它國家般允許銷售電流,國能應允許任何公司獲得執照,彼此在競爭力上一較高低,大馬應採取這樣的做法。

“就像所有生意一樣,這是可行的做法,新加坡也已這樣做。我們在新加坡擁有的Seraya電力公司無須簽署購電協議,依舊能生存和保持有利可圖。”

他說,在獨立發電計劃上,國能擁有充足經驗和深知消費者真正所需。國能可以和獨立發電公司在發電領域直接競爭,如果它因具備策略優勢,能生產更廉宜的電力而表現凌駕其它獨立發電公司,我們無話可說和樂觀其成。

除了楊忠禮電力之外,其它參與投標行動的4家獨立發電公司為Segari能源投資、雲頂杉原、波德申電力和電力科技(Powertek)。

楊肅斌表示,獨立發電公司在創立初期,需要購電協議以取得融資來興建發電廠。

正面角度看待獨立發電計劃

“如果沒有為期21年的購電合約,你要如何取得銀行融資?你要如何發售長達15年期的債券?獨立發電計劃帶來許多利惠,包括令債券市場更具流動性,間中涉及許多知識產權。我們應以正面角度看待獨立發電計劃。”

他說,已有近21年歷史的購電協議,自簽定以來購電費率從未大幅調升。

他指出,大馬的電費是亞洲最低廉的。所有亞洲其它地區的獨立發電計劃都以失敗收場,包括印尼在內。“我曾收購原本由西門子(Siemens)和通用電器(GE)擁有而倒閉的發電廠,這些發電廠以失敗收場,因它們征收每千瓦8美分的電費,而我們只向國能征收3美分。”

爭取大馬基建計劃

在本地業務發展方面,楊肅斌說,該集團放眼成為大馬基建發展的主要業者。

“在經濟轉型計劃下,將推出許多良好基建計劃,政府奠下了良好的基礎,作為投資者,我深具信心。”

他估計旗下機場直透快鐵(ERL)今年將運載4千萬名搭客,在新的廉航機場終站於明年連接機場快鐵服務後,預料每年載送的搭客將增加至少50%。

楊肅斌透露,該集團計劃在彭亨設立一座新的1.5公噸洋灰廠。

至於馬新高速火車計劃,楊肅斌則拒絕評論。

在截至2012年3月31日止的第三季,該集團淨利揚升16.9%至3億6千482萬令吉,至於營業額則上漲23.5%至52億4千萬令吉。

“業務照常”策略危險

楊忠禮集團向來重視企業社會責任,強調取諸社會,用諸社會,要做良好的企業公民。該集團積極支持和推動環保、藝術文化、教育和社區發展。

楊肅斌說,在明天的資源緊縮的世界,環保是必須認真解決浪費的課題,“業務照常”是一個危險的策略。企業和全球領導人急迫需要擁抱拯救地球的信念。

“一場重大的工業革命在所難免,需要一個路線圖以跨越深淵,來到一個減少依賴資源的新經濟,以及一張不是基於“用後即棄”的咒語來營運的執照。”

楊肅斌並指出,在全球經濟中,我們急切需要良好的監管,法律條例和透明化的管制架構,以便重建信任和再造道德和誠信。我們必須提昇具勇氣和責任心的領導者至更高的位置。

“道德倫理和商業盈利不一定是互相排斥的,做好事的動力並不是零和遊戲。”

作為虔誠基督教徒,楊肅斌不斷重複他的理念:楊忠禮集團的員工必須掌握3種語言――通向道德與正直的上帝語言、清楚表達理想的人類語言;以及機器語言,他的意思是IT。“我不是為了我的信仰讓別人改變信仰,而是告訴(我的員工們),他們的價值觀必須這樣排列。”

楊肅斌:如今是買家市場,口袋滿滿的楊忠禮集團要精挑細選優質資產。(圖:星洲日報)

Thursday, May 17, 2012

REITs continue to find favour amid uncertainties

With more than half of the real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed on Bursa Malaysia having released their 1Q earnings results, it appears that most continue to do well despite lingering concerns of oversupply and rental pressure, especially in the office segment.

Those that are more active in terms of asset acquisition, such as CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust (CMMT) and Axis REIT, registered a strong earnings boost from the additional income contributions from newly acquired properties.

Positively, others like Quill Capita Trust and AmFIRST REIT — which have a higher portion of their assets in office properties — reported income growth as well, albeit at a more pedestrian pace. As a whole, the REITs are living up to expectations as comparably safe and high-yielding investing alternatives.

Under prevailing cautious sentiment, amid both domestic and external uncertainties, they do look fairly attractive with yields that are far higher than bank deposits. We estimate yields ranging from 5% to as high as 8.4% for the locally listed REITs.

Unsurprisingly, the larger and more liquid trusts are, on average, trading at higher valuations in terms of price-to-net asset value, and give lower yields. The three largest REITs by total asset value — Sunway REIT, Pavilion REIT and CMMT — offer yields of 5% to 5.9%.

By contrast, REITs with smaller asset portfolios and, often, lower profiles, continue to offer higher yields. For instance, mid-sized AmFIRST and Quill Capita are estimated to earn investors yields of roughly 8.4% and 7.4%, respectively.

Buying interest boosts premium on Pavilion REIT
Pavilion REIT, the largest REIT in terms of market capitalisation, is currently trading at RM1.24, about 1.3 times its net asset value of RM0.96 as at end-March.

The trust has done very well since making its debut on the local bourse in early December last year. The IPO was priced at 88 sen for retail investors. Thus, early investors would have earned some 48% in terms of capital gains in just six months.

Pavilion REIT reported revenue of RM85.3 million and income available for distribution of RM50.6 million in 1Q. The trust expects rental income to decline slightly in 2Q and 3Q, due to enhancement being undertaken in parts of the mall. This will see the transformation of roughly 68,000 sq ft of area — approximately 5% of the mall’s total net lettable area (NLA) — into a new high fashion precinct called the Fashion Avenue. The move comes on the heels of the successful creation of similarly themed Tokyo Street, which encompasses smaller-sized tenants at higher yields.

It remains well on target to hit the forecast distribution of 5.73 sen per unit, as disclosed in the prospectus. Indeed, we estimate distribution to total roughly 6.24 sen per unit for the current year. Still, as a result of its unit price gains, Pavilion REIT’s yields are expected to be the lowest among the locally listed REITs, estimated at just about 5%.

As a comparison, some of the larger retail-focused trusts listed across the straits on the Stock Exchange of Singapore are currently yielding between 5.3% and 7.2%. CapitaMall Trust, with assets totalling S$9.7 billion (RM23.77 billion), is trading at 1.1 times net asset value and estimated to yield 5.3% while Fortune REIT is trading at only 0.6 times net asset value and offers yield estimated at 7.2%. The latter owns and manages 16 suburban malls in Hong Kong.

Expansions in the pipeline

To recap, Pavilion REIT’s current portfolio consists of only two properties, the flagship Pavilion Kuala Lumpur Mall and Pavilion Tower, valued at a combined RM3.56 billion. The former is among the few premium fashion shopping malls in the country catering for the mid- to high-end segment of the population. The shopping centre also attracts more than its fair share of tourist numbers, thanks to its location in the heart of the Golden Triangle and commercial business district.

The shopping mall is valued at RM3.43 billion and has total net lettable area of almost 1.34 million sq ft. Pavilion Tower is a 20-storey office block connected to the mall. Contributions from Pavilion Tower are relatively marginal, accounting for just about 2.5% of total revenue in 1Q.

Going forward, the trust intends to stay focused on properties used solely or predominantly for retail purposes. It has the rights of first refusal for two other shopping malls — Fahrenheit88 and a yet-to-be developed neighbourhood mall in Subang Jaya — as well as for the Pavilion Mall extension. With gearing of just about 19% as at end-March, the trust has ample room to leverage for new acquisitions.

Fahrenheit88 is the former KL Plaza, located across the street from Pavilion Mall, and has about 280,000 sq ft of net lettable area (NLA). The refurbished mall opened in 2010 and is a good candidate to be Pavilion REIT’s first acquisition post-listing.

Work on the Pavilion Mall extension, which will entail some 300,000 sq ft of retail lettable area, is slated to start in 3Q12 and expected to take two to three years. Meanwhile, the mall in Subang Jaya will reportedly have NLA of roughly 400,000 sq ft and is expected to be completed by 2015.

We will continue our highlights of a few of the smaller REITs this Friday.


Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, May 16, 2012.

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Sunway REIT: Yields with fairly low risks

Sunway REIT is one of the more obvious choices when it comes to real estate investment trusts (REITs) for investors on the local bourse, considering its size and liquidity. It is currently the largest REIT in terms of assets under management — which totalled more than RM4.5 billion at end-March 2012 — and a close second to Pavilion REIT in terms of market capitalisation.

Investors in the trust since its IPO, in July 2010, would have fared well. Its unit price has risen from the retail IPO price of 88 sen to the current RM1.25 while distributed income totalled some 12.2 sen during this period. That translates into gains of nearly 56% in less than two years — pretty smart returns when taking into account its relatively defensive profile.

Such defensive characteristics may well continue to attract investors given the prevailing cautious sentiment amid domestic and external uncertainties. We estimate Sunway REIT’s income distribution to total roughly 7.42 sen per unit for the financial year ending June 2012. That would earn unitholders a fairly attractive gross yield of 5.9% at the current price.

Retail and hospitality-centric portfolio of assets

Sunway REIT’s portfolio of assets is a mix of retail, hospitality and commercial but is unique in that most are located within close proximity and hence provide synergistic benefits to the whole.

For instance, a good chunk of its assets — roughly three quarters the value of its total investment properties — are located in Bandar Sunway, an 800-acre (320ha) integrated township in the Klang Valley, where development is still ongoing. Complete with a theme park, university and campus as well as private medical centre, the Sunway Pyramid Shopping Mall, Sunway Pyramid Hotel & Spa and Pyramid Tower Hotel benefit from both local and tourist traffic generated by the township. Similarly, Menara Sunway is current fully occupied and enjoyed positive rental reversion for leases renewed so far this year.
Refurbishment to enhance value of Sunway Putra Place
The trust’s first acquisition, since listing, of the Sunway Putra Place is premised on a similar concept. The clutch of properties, which include a shopping mall, hotel and office tower, was purchased in a public auction last year for some RM514 million — and is currently valued at a combined RM576 million.

Sunway REIT plans to undertake major refurbishment for the mall — works are slated to begin in 2013 and are estimated to take 15-18 months to complete — costing some RM200 million.

Once completed, the mall will have an additional net lettable area of some 115,000 sq ft, or more than 20% increase from the existing total, and will be repositioned to target the mid to mid-upper level income shoppers. With improved layout and tenant mix, the mall is expected to generate better rentals. That would, in turn, attract more traffic, thus benefiting also business at the hotel and office tower. The trust also expects higher valuations for the properties once the asset enhancements are completed.

Estimated 6%-6.2% yields for FY13-FY14

The refurbishment would, however, mean a loss of rental income from the mall during the estimated 18-month duration. Sunway Putra Mall contributed roughly RM25 million in turnover in the first nine months of FY12.

As such, we estimate income available for distribution to be somewhat flattish in FY13 from the current financial year — positive rental reversions from the other properties are expected to more or less offset the rental income loss — before ticking slightly higher in FY14. Earnings, however, should register much stronger growth in FY15 when the mall reopens.

This is, of course, barring any new acquisitions. During its IPO, Sunway REIT revealed the intention to grow and possibly double its assets within the next five to seven years. Some RM2.6 billion of properties were identified for potential acquisition, primarily from Sunway City, one of the largest property developers in the country.

Some completed pipeline assets include Sunway University, Monash University and Sunway Campus, Sunway Giza Shopping Mall and Sunway Medical Centre while others like The Pinnacle and Sunway Pyramid 3 are currently under construction. The trust’s gearing now stands at about 36%.

As mentioned above, income distribution is estimated to total roughly 7.42 sen per unit for FY12, up from 6.58 sen in FY11, boosted by first-time contributions from Sunway Putra Place.

Going forward, income distribution is forecast to be flattish at 7.44 sen in FY13 before improving to about 7.79 sen per unit in FY14. Based on our estimates, unitholders will earn yields of roughly 6% and 6.2% for the two years respectively.


Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, May 11, 2012.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

分享锦集:你也可以开金店

Feb 6th, 2012 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集

这两年来,黄金暴涨,现虽然已由巅峰略为回落,但仍比两年前高出一大截。两年前买进金条的人,现在仍有丰厚的利润。

黄金一向被视为有保值的价值,同时也是高贵身分的象征,受到全球人们的钟爱,历久不衰,过去如此,将来仍将如此,黄金一定有人要,所以黄金生意一定有得做,也一定有利可图。

开金店6难题

窃以为从投资的角度看,与其买黄金保值,倒不如开金店,更容易赚钱,理由是收藏黄金保值赚钱,是消极及被动的行为,你的命运由别人(市场)决定,而开金店则是积极及主动的赚钱法,命运操在自己手中。

也许你认为你没条件开金店。是的,开金店谈何容易,最低限度要面对六道难题:

第一:资本颇大

宝光控股执行主席兼董事经理拿督锺义翔在受访问时透露,开设一间金店,成本介于300万至500万令吉之间,并非小型企业者可以负担得起。

第二:人才、管理、经验,三者缺一不可

人才难找,管理和经验需要时间陶冶,并无捷径可循。

第三:理想地点难找

作为零售生意,金店最好坐落在人气旺盛,人流稠密的地点,而此类地点可能早已被其他零售商捷足先登,轻易不肯放弃,故可遇而不可求。

第四:品牌不易建立

作为贵重商品,黄金顾客多数光顾老招牌金店,确保货真价实。

第五:规模

规模要大才能通过薄利多销,降低成本。通常大型金店集团都拥有自己的首饰制造厂,这是只有一两间店面的金店难以做到的。

第六:回本期长

首饰难以获取暴利,投资回本期长,要多年耐心守候才能建立基本顾客群,达到生意量稳定的地步。投资者把资金投进去将长期被绑。

要克服以上六道难题,谈何容易。若如此,一般投资者岂不是与首饰业无缘?

200万投资珠宝公司

其实,这是错误的想法,只要大家突破思想的框框,打破“力不到不为财”的传统观念,你就会发现,每个人都可以通过购买上市珠宝公司的股票(股份),就可以轻易的克服以上六难题,达成投资珠宝业获取合理回酬的心愿。

宝光珠宝业大哥大

现在让我举宝光为例来阐述这个概念。

宝光是大马珠宝业的大哥大,有悠久的历史,是大家所熟悉的老招牌金店,备受信赖。

该公司在全马拥有100间分店(第100间最近在怡保开幕),以后每年会增开3至5间分店。

宝光的实收资本为2亿500万令吉,分为每股面值50仙的股票4亿1000万股。

4亿1000万股的1%为410万股,而100间的1%为1间。

所以,只要你购买410万股宝光股份(股票只不过是股份的证书而已),你其实就等于已经拥有100间分店中的其中一间。

以宝光在1月30日时的闭市价48仙计算,购买410万股的投资额为:RM0.48×4,100,000 = RM1,968,000。

这等于说,你只需要拿出约200万令吉,就可以开设一间分店。以宝光今年首季的净利计算,只要3年多就可以赚回200万的投资额(本益比三倍)。

本小利大 回收期短

锺义翔说,开设一间分店的成本为300至500万令吉,假设我们取中间数,投资额为400万令吉的话。

也比通过买宝光股票开金店高一倍,回收期也长一倍。

资产证券化概念

不要忘记,宝光的金店,都坐落在优良的地点,有稳定的顾客群,生意滔滔,而且已有可观盈利,开新店不但地点难找,而且起码要守三、两年才有利可图。

所以,通过购买宝光1%股权(410万股),拥有宝光1%金店,是本小利大,回收期短及省时省力的投资法。

开新店则是本大利小,回收期长及麻烦多多的投资法。比较之下,优劣立见。

可惜的是大部分散户都没有“资产证券化,证券大众化”的概念。

所谓“资产证券化”就是用一纸证书来代表资产(店屋、厂房、货物、现金等等都是资产)的价值,跟地契代表土地;车卡代表汽车拥有权没有两样。

股票代表企业所有资产,买股票就是买企业的资产。

所以,宝光的4亿1000万股股票,是代表宝光100间金店的所有资产,包括建筑物、存货、现金、工场、商誉等等。

购买410万股宝光,你其实是购买了宝光1%的资产(包括业务),也就是拥有100间店铺中的其中一间。

通过买股票投资

“证券大众化”就是将股份(股票)分割为数额很小的份额,使人人都买得起,而达到了“大众化”的目的(股票是证券之一),证券大众化其实是均富的最好途径。

宝光成为上市公司,使每一个人都有机会通过购买股票,投资于该公司,分享营业成果,只要循规蹈矩去做,就是公德无量。

买入股票解决开店6难题

通过购买410万股宝光,拥有一间宝光金店,你轻易的解决了以上所说的开新店的六大难题:

第一:成本低

通过购买宝光股票开设金店,成本比开新店低一半,如果盈利相同的话,赚率将增加一倍。

开新店是本大利小,购买现成金店是本小利大。

第二:现成人才

不必为人才、管理及经验伤脑筋,由锺义翔领导的团队,会替你把金店管理得妥妥当当。拿督是此行的行尊,对这行业了如指掌,而手下员工大部分有丰富的服务经验。

该公司数十年来年年赚钱,说明了这个团队的可信赖程度。开新店不容易找到这样的人才。

第三:地点优越

宝光的现成金店都在优良的地点,解决了好店位难找的难题。
实际上,这些优良的地点本身就是无形资产,是有价值的。

第四:品牌受信赖

宝光是老招牌,家喻户晓。

第五:规模大

大宗买原料,可以降低成本。

第六:回本期短

现成金店马上有盈利,新店恐怕要等上三、五年才可赚钱,不但缩短回本期,而且资本已证券化,随时可以在股市脱售,以套取部分或全部现金,不像私人金店那样,资金长期被捆绑。

宝光到去年10月31日的本财务年第一季营业量比上一年同时期激增36%至2亿3000万令吉,净利1772万令吉,每股净赚4.32仙。

如果其余三季能保持此业绩的话,全年营业量将激增至超过9亿令吉,净利可能达7000万令吉,每股净利17.28仙(4.32仙×4 = 17.28仙),以48仙的股价,预期本益比仅为2.78倍。

在比较上述资讯之后,到底是要通过宝光买现成金店,还是开新店,你应该心里有数了吧!

通过此法,人人都可以参与首饰业。

与其买黄金,不如做黄金生意!

思考重点

宝光创于1976年,至今已有46年的历史。作为大马首饰业的龙头大哥,宝光给人的印象是作风保守,实际上该公司是在“沉着应战”。

在这个行业,稳健、务实是优点,不是弱点。

每年只增开3至5间分店,稳步前进,可以走更远的路。

宝光在芙蓉、巴生、八打灵再也、马六甲、关丹、峇株巴辖、梳邦、吉隆坡、莎阿南、雪兰莪,拥有31宗产业,买进日期由1989至2009年不等,包括店铺和住宅,至今仍以买进时的价格进账,现在这些产业已增值多少倍?

例如该公司在1995年9月1日买进,位于八打灵再也的独立式首饰制造厂,占地7570.30平方尺(8万1486方尺或1.87英亩),在账目中的价值为1223万4000令吉,现在价值多少?

在2011年7月31日的账目中,该公司拥有9154万5807令吉的不动产,现在价值多少?

所以,每股89仙的净有形资产价值,肯定是被低估。

8年赚2亿

以每年开设3至5家分店的速度,需花30年才能达到宝光目前的规模,而目前48仙的股价,约等于该公司每股净有形资产的一半,买宝光股不是比开新店更合算吗?

宝光上市8年来共赚了2亿令吉,刚好等于该公司的市值,难道其业务、商誉、物业,都没有价值?

为什么股价不起?因为派息率太低,每年1.4仙的股息,即使是目前48仙的发息,周息率也只有区区的2.4%。如提高至3仙(或派发净利的30%)相信可以吸引更多投资者买进作为长期投资,从而提高股价。

分享锦集:如何发掘第二线优质股

Feb 19th, 2012 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集

我在《格林尼和金锋大股东廉价私有化上市公司》(1月30日)一文中,最后一句为“机会是在第二线优质股”。

这句话,引起了不少读者的兴趣,不断的有人问:

⑴为什么我认为今年的赚钱机会是在第二线优质股?

⑵“第二线优质股”是指那些股票?(要符合什么条件才有资格称为“第二线优质股”?)

⑶怎样找出有潜能的第二线优质股?

⑷散户应采取怎样的投资策略?

现在让我逐项回答上述问题:

答案一:为什么我认为今年的赚钱机会是在第二线优质股?

金融海啸重伤 散户却步股市

次贷风暴所触发的金融海啸重伤散户,使散户却步股市。在过去三年中,在股市积极投资的都是投资机构,他们所买的都是活跃的蓝筹股,导致蓝筹股持续上升,至今高企不下。

对于第二、三线股票,一来是由于交投不活跃,票量不多,而素质又良莠不齐,投资机构不感兴趣,导致股价长期不振,形成了蓝筹股与第二三线股股价各走极端的怪现象。

在长期被投资大众冷落的情况下,导致许多第二线优质股价值严重被低估。

大家只要仔细阅读报章的股市行情表,就不难发现,蓝筹股的本益比,许多已在15倍以上,而许多优质第二线股票,本益比在5倍以下的,比比皆是。两者形成了强烈的对照。第二线优质股何以无人问津?我想原因有二:

⑴是不了解。大马投资者认真研究上市公司的人数,出奇的少,大部分人都没兴趣做功课,导致大部分人不了解上市公司的价值。

⑵大多数人只感兴趣投机,以赚取快钱,对于长期投资,兴趣索然。许多第二线优质股都不是热门股,股价波动不大,难以引起投机者的兴趣。

股票投资,假如你是一名“跟随者”,跟在别人后面,大家买什么你也跟着买什么,那么,你只能赚到大家所能赚到的钱,你的投资成绩,不可能比别人更特出。

如果你想你的投资成绩超越一般人的话,那么,你就一定要跟别人有不同的想法,必须做别人不想做,不要做的事,这样,你才有可能赚到一般人所无法赚到的钱。

这就是“反向”的真义。

就以目前股市的情况来说,我认为,大部分蓝筹股价值已反映在股价上,上升的幅度以回酬巴仙率计算,肯定不如价值被严重低估的第二线优质股。

答案二:第二线优质股是指那些股票?

“优质股”须具备条件

第二线股亦良莠不齐。我认为惟有具备以下条件的股票,才配称为“优质股”。

⒈要有合理的盈利表现,而且在可以预见的将来,其盈利趋势可以持续。

⒉派发合理的股息。

⒊现金流量平稳,不会出现货物滞销,导致周转不灵。

⒋预期本益比在8倍以下,越低越好。(以本财务年,不是以过去财务年的每股净利计算出来的本益比)。

⒌盈利有成长潜能。

要具备以上五个条件中的最少三个,才有资格称为优质股,成为我们考虑投资的对象。

答案三:走样发掘第二线优质股?从何下手呢?

研究报章找“灵感”

最方便的方法,是找一份《南洋商报》的“股汇”版,从“本益比”栏中找“灵感”。你可以将本益比8倍以下的股只写在一张纸上,作为研究的对象。

但要特别注意,报章用以计算本益比的,是上一个财务年的每股净利,而且是全年的数目。

现在的商业社会,竞争白热化,上市公司的盈利在一年中可以有很大的变化,所以,不要完全以一年前的资料作为选股标准,而是要跟进每季的业绩,以确保你是根据最新的资料,而不是根据一年前的资料作出投资决定。

有一些公司,曾有一个时期陷入困境,但经过重组及瘦身后,会像火中凤凰般,成为优质股。马建屋就是一个典型的例子。

读完公司文告

该公司在九十年代曾是蓝筹股,金融风暴之后,曾有一段很长的时间陷困,直到两年前,大力扩展借钱给公务员的业务,才脱胎换骨,以黑马的姿态出现,成为表现极为特出的优质股。

那些只记得该公司困境的投资者,忽略了该公司翻身的最新进展,都错过了低价买进该公司股票的良机。

有意“寻宝”的投资者,最好养成每天读完公司文告的习惯,这样,才有可能跟上上市公司的最新进展,抓住新的投资机会,取得卓越的回酬。

随手举一个例子,太平洋与东方保险公司(P&O),是2001至2008年的8年中,有7年蒙受亏蚀,这个印象深植投资者脑中,所以,一提到太平洋与东方保险,投资者的第一个反应就是该股不是好股,实际上该公司由2009年起就恢复盈利,而且逐年上升,去年已每股净赚20.18仙。

仔细看季报

再仔细看该公司的季报,该公司去年第三季每股净赚6.58仙;第四季赚5.95仙,比第一及第二季的3.96仙和3.68仙有显著的增长。

如果本财务年能够重复第三及第四季的业绩的话,到2012年9月财务年,就有可能每股净赚25仙,以目前1令吉的股价,预期本益比不过4倍,跟其他金融股相比,此预期本益比显然偏低。

太平洋与东方保险之所以能改善业绩,相信跟国家银行实施的风险管理新架构有关(RBCCapilalFramework,有兴趣的可以进入 Google找到此份超过100页的文件,了解详情)。在这新架构下,保险(尤其是杂险)的经营环境改善了,今后保险公司的盈利可望更平稳。

将在2月底出炉的该公司本财务年首季的业绩,将是该公司能否持续去年最后两季业绩的重要资讯,有意购买该公司的投资者应注意跟进。

另一个典型的例子是供应汽车配给国产车的EP制造(EPMB)。

这家历史颇悠久的公司,给大家的印象是业绩平平,却很少人注意到在过去三年中,该公司的业绩有显著的改善,每股净利由2009年的4.51仙,到2010年的15.90仙,到2011年9月的三季已赚了18.58仙。

如果该公司到去年12月的第四季能保持第三季6.20仙的盈利的话,即将在本月底公布的去年全年每股净利可能达到25仙,以目前1令吉的股价,预期本益比也是4倍。

该公司五年来的股价除了去年5月一度突破1令吉的票面价值之外,从未超过1令吉,实在令人费解。

注意低调公司

由于大部分股友只热衷于热门股,对于低调公司视若无睹。一些低调公司,实际上是很结实的,例如建筑股中有一家叫高胜(KEN)的,以9586万的资本,手头拥有7108万的现金,每股现金74仙,完全没有负债。

去年每股净赚20仙,今年首三季已赚了17.79仙,全年业绩将在本月底出炉,预料每股净利将超过20仙,难怪该公司持续不断的回购该公司的股票,到1月17日时已买进了6,046,700股。(资料均取自公司文告)。

只要养成天天读公司文告的习惯,要发现有潜能的股票,并非难事。

假如你想在股市长期生存,就非勤做功课不可。勤于阅读年报、季报及公司文告,是挖掘有潜能股票最佳途径。

答案四:散户应采取怎样的投资策略?

赚钱要靠自己做功课

①买进时就准备进行长期投资。

生意是要时间去经营,才有可能把钱赚到手的。你必须给时间让公司的管理层替你赚钱。

生意是要按部就班去进行才能创富。

创富不可能一蹴而就,细水长流胜过一次过的暴利。

②买进股票后要贴身跟进公司的业绩进展,如果公司无法达到你预期的盈利,而又没有充足及合理的理由,就应立刻退股——把股票卖掉。

③所有的投资决定,都要根据基本面作出。

基本面必须有事实与数字支撑,不可存有幻想,更不可有偏见。

临渊羡鱼,不如退而结网。

记住,赚钱是非常个人的事,别人很难替你作主。

一般声明

举例只是方便说明,并非推荐购买,本人可能拥有或未拥有有关股票。

分享锦集:煮熟的青蛙

Mar 5th, 2012 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集

迩来股市投机气氛越来越浓厚,一向没人问津的仙股,被轮流炒高,散户们应接不暇,又特别兴奋。他们也很矛盾:跃跃欲试想参与,却又怕偷鸡不着蚀把米;不参与吗,又怕错过赚钱机会,导致大部分人都没了主意,不知道该如何是好。

平心而论,在低价股中,也有一些有价值的股票,只是良莠不分,整批或整组的长期被市场忽略,股价长期不振,最近仙股的暴升,一方面是有价值的仙股突然被投资者发现其价值被低估,进行吸购,股价调整至较为合理的水平,另一方面,也是一些“有心人”藉着这一阵风,将一些垃圾仙股炒高,以谋取暴利,最后吃亏的,必然是无知的散户。

牛市逐步成型

所以,假如你真的想淌这一浑水的话,一方面要睁大眼睛,看清楚这些仙股的价值及实情,另一方面,也要作好愿赌服输的心理准备。千万不要让投机股市影响你的工作,尤其不可使你的家庭受到干扰。

“债灾”报道渐少

投机风气炽盛,股市价量齐升,说明了散户已重回股市。任何一个股市,如果没有散户的参与,不可能形成牛市。大马散户终于放弃了在场外观望的态度,有点不顾一切的跳进股海,这是牛市逐步成型的象征,龙年到底是大牛还是小牛市,还要其他因素的配合,而这个牛市对散户是福是祸,就很难说了。

大家不晓得有没有发现,近月来报章对美国经济和欧洲“债灾”的报道越来越少了,这是好现象。我曾在报馆工作30年,对报人的选稿习惯了如指掌,我们通常是报忧不报喜,坏消息总是以大标题刊出,好消息则以二台标题见报。

其实,这也是迎合读者偏爱“灾”闻的心理,而这样处理新闻的。

所以,“没消息就是好消息”是很有道理的。现在欧美经济“灾”闻数量大减,象征着欧美经济已逐渐走出“灾”区,即使还有续闻,亦不足以引起群众的恐慌,对股市来说,这是好现象。

“不忘基本面”3问

在“灾”闻泛滥期间,低价股要卖的都卖光了,剩下的是不愿贱价脱售的严肃长期投资者,仙股下跌空间有限,在这种情况下,只要有人带头,推高3几只股票,就可以触发股市较全面窜升的现象,目前的投机,就是在这种情况下引爆的。

在这种情况之下,散户该怎么做?

我的主张是:无论是投资或投机(我反对投机),都要念念不忘基本面,这样可以减低风险。

所谓“不忘基本面”,是在买进时要3问:

股票本益比过高勿买

1问:此股的本益比是多少?不要买本益比过高的股票,对于没有本益比的股票,除非你肯定有关公司能反亏为盈,否则,最好不要沾手。

2问:此股派多少股息?如果有盈利而没派息,可能是有关公司需要保留资金,以扩展业务,这是成长股的象征,也可以考虑买进,但本益比必须偏低。对没有本益比(表示公司亏蚀)、本益比奇高,而周息率又奇低或没股息的股票,最好不要买进,以免资金被长期套牢。

现金流低公司易陷困

3问:此股债务是否奇高而现金流又奇低?如果有这种现象的话,最好不要买进,因为这种公司最易陷困。股票投资,即使买进价格略高,只要公司盈利持续上升,股价必然从之,你还有机会回本,甚至有钱赚。

最怕的就是公司“烂”了,所谓“烂”了就是公司破产了,玩完了,那就永远无法回去了。债高而又没有现金流的公司,最易“烂”,避之则吉。

注入新业务公司 成功巴仙率很低

还有,要提醒大家的是对被注入新业务的上市公司,不要有太高的期望。过去的经验显示:注入新业务的公司,成功的巴仙率很低。

在商场中,没有免费午餐这回事。没有人会无端端的让别人分享他的“肥水”。所以,每一宗有利可图的业务,都是在被大量灌水之后才注入上市公司的,企业家在做任何一件事时,都以本身的利益为出发点,他不可能贱价脱售好的业务,以施舍盈利给小股东。

所以,上市公司所取得的新业务,即使有利可图,也是付出了高昂的代价,利润微不足道。如果期望太高的话,你最后必然大失所望。

从次贷风暴引爆的金融海啸现在已进入第五年,风暴的最低点是2009年第一季,从那时起,无论是美国或大马股市,都是以大涨小回头的形势上升,无论是股市或个别股项都是如此。在复苏初期,我曾写过一篇《不动如山两年》,主张大家低价买进好股后就不要轻易出售,以赚取最大的回酬。3年来的股市动向证明我当年的看法是正确的。

蓝筹股“本大利小”

经过了数年的挺升,我认为蓝筹股的价值已反映在其股价上,从本益比可以看出股价已不便宜。没有人会知道还有多少上升的余地。但是,现在买进,你是在做“本大利小”的投资了,恐怕不是明智之举。

散户现在活跃投入股市,以第二、三线为战场,这种战略是正确的。但是,第二、三线股良莠不齐,其中不少垃圾存在,如果选择错误,仍可能踏到地雷。

所以,如果你要买进第二、三线股票的话,一定要有沙里淘金的本领,而“3问”就是沙里淘金的最好标准。

优质股被低估

现在,许多第二、三线优质股价值被严重低估,买进作为投资,风险不高,回酬可观,应是明智之举。

但要特别提醒,当第二、三线被炒高,价值被高估时,恐怕牛市就近尾声了。

无论在牛市或熊市,都念念不忘基本面,以基本面作为进退的准则,就不会错到哪里去。

千万不要做锅里的青蛙,将锅注满了冷水,将青蛙放在水中,青蛙会在水中快乐地游来游去,你下面生火,慢慢的煑水,水温慢慢上升,青蛙会麻木不仁,失去警觉,到他发现时,已被煮熟了。

要提高警惕,不要做被煮熟的青蛙哟!

(完)

YTL Comms targets half a million postpaid subscribers

In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Nadia S Hassan
Wednesday, 07 March 2012 11:37

KUALA LUMPUR: YTL Communications Sdn Bhd is targeting to grow its postpaid subscriber base to half a million by end-2012 according to its CEO Wing K Lee.

“We are aiming for our total subscriber base to be over one million by the end of the year. However, we will have to see how the rest of the year goes,” said Wing after the launch of YTL Comms YES 4G wireless Unlimited Super Postpaid plans yesterday.

YTL Comms comes under the umbrella of listed entity YTL Power International Bhd. YTL Power chairman Tan Sri Francis Yeoh Sock Ping had been quoted as telling shareholders in 2011 that he expected YTL Comms to break even when its subscriber base reaches one million.

As such, if YTL Comms manages to achieve one million subscribers by the year-end, it means that the company could be profit generating.

Yeoh had also said at the time that he expected YTL Comms to turn around within two years. YTL Comms is currently loss-making, according to YTL Power’s latest 4Q results. For the financial period ended Dec 31, YTL Comms recorded a net loss of RM197 million while its top line stood at RM30.6 million. For the previous corresponding period, revenue had stood at RM4.7 million, while net losses had been RM27.7 million.

YTL Comms has gained a subscriber base of over 300,000 in the 15 months since YES was launched, according to Wing.

Earlier, YTL Comms had announced a target of 400,000 subscribers by the end of 2011.

However, according to the company, while the initial pickup was slow, YES is starting to gain traction on the back of new packages and offerings.

“We have also managed to almost double our number of base stations during the past 15 months.

“We initially had around 1,200 base stations that gave us around 60% population coverage. Now the number has grown to 2,200, which gives us around 70% coverage of the population,” Wing said.

According to YTL Comms deputy CEO Jacob Yeoh, the company is aiming to expand its coverage to 80% of the population by the end of 2012.

“We are hoping to have around 4,000 base stations by the end of the year, which will help expand our coverage by an additional 10 percentage points.

We had also earlier said we were planning to spend around RM2.5 billion in capital expenditure to meet this target,” he said.

YTL Comms is also targeting the education sector, having already signed up 10 local universities to offer its YES wireless service.

“It goes beyond simple marketing, what we are aiming for is making fundamental changes in the industry. We are also looking to add more universities as our partners, going forward,” said Wing.

He added that YTL Comms is also looking at possibly expanding the coverage of YES to include Sabah and Sarawak.

“We are in talks with the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) concerning our expansion into east Malaysia. We will announce it when there is an update,” said Wing.

This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, March 7, 2012.

Padini on expansion to drive earnings growth

In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Financial Daily
Thursday, 08 March 2012 11:31

Padini Holdings Bhd
(March 7, RM1.48)
Initiating coverage with a target price of RM1.80:
We initiate coverage on Padini with a “buy” recommendation and a fair value of RM1.80 based on a 10% discount to its discounted cash flow value of RM2. FY12 is turning out to be an aggressive year for Padini, due to the substantial number of store openings during the year. Thus far, four stores have been launched and six more — three each of Brands Outlet and Concept Stores — are targeted to open in 2HFY12.

This reflects Padini’s deepening market penetration and ascendency as a preferred mini-anchor for retail malls. Its strong brand equity is the pull factor in boosting retail traffic.

We forecast earnings to expand by 12% from RM75 million in FY11 to an estimated RM83 million for FY12. Earnings are expected to accelerate by 19% in FY13, boosted by the full-year impact of 10 new stores. We have assumed five new stores each for FY13 and FY14.

Sales for FY13 will get a further boost from the Malaysia Mega Sale taking place from June 15 to Sept 2 this year. Apart from the opening of new stores, we have not incorporated the collaboration with FJ Benjamin for the Vincci licence in our forecast. Discussions are preliminary at this stage. Short to medium term impact will not be significant until the size of the distribution network in Indonesia grows considerably larger.

The group has no official dividend policy but it has consistently paid out dividends of at least 30% of earnings from FY07 to FY11. We forecast an unchanged dividend payout of 30%, translating to a dividend per share of four sen and 4.5 sen for FY12 and FY13, respectively.

Padini’s market capitalisation is approaching RM1 billion. This will improve visibility and investability among the institutional funds. At present, local institutions hold at least 20% of Padini but we expect the level of institutionalisation to expand. We like Padini for its strong balance sheet, and its Brands Outlet and Concept Store are mini-anchor tenants, given their potential to increase footfall for retail malls. We have also noted Padini’s potential growth in the domestic market especially in the outskirts.

Despite its strong share price performance, valuation is undemanding because earnings expansion is significant, at a compound annual growth rate of 12% over FY12 to FY14, and free cash flow of more than 10%. At current levels, the stock is trading at an attractive price-earnings ratio of 9 to 11 times. — AmResearch, March 7


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, March 8, 2012.


1Bestarinet to kick off soon

In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012

Written by Nadia S Hassan
Tuesday, 13 March 2012 11:44

KUALA LUMPUR: The government’s 1Bestarinet project is in the process of being implemented by YTL Communications Sdn Bhd (YTL Comms), a unit of YTL Power International Bhd.

Although no official announcement had been made by the government on the project award, sources said YTL Comms has already rolled out the service to a number of schools in the Klang Valley, having started
doing so from December last year.

When contacted, a YTL Comms spokesman said: “The project was awarded based on an open tender submission made to the Ministry of Education and, whilst we appreciate the opportunity to respond, we are bound by the tender guidelines on confidentiality.”

When asked about 1Bestarinet at a recent event, YTL Comms CEO Wing K Lee declined to comment on the matter, only saying that: “We are supportive of this project by the government, and believe that it is good for the people.”

It is learned that there are around 400 schools in Selangor that are due for implementation in the coming months. The focus of the reportedly RM1.5 billion project is to provide Internet access and a virtual learning platform to 9,924 schools across the country.

“There had been question marks over the status of the project. However, it appears that YTL Comms is picking up the pace to meet the government’s goal to complete 1Bestarinet and have it available to all the schools by 2012,” said an industry observer.

The project involves the provision of both Internet access and a virtual learning environment (VLE). The tenure of the contract could be up to 15 years and would include the management of the VLE. The schools would be provided equipment and 4G dongles, while Internet access would be required to carry out the VLE.

The government announced the tender last May as part of its efforts to wire up the country’s schools.

It had been reported that six companies — Celcom Axiata Bhd, Jaring Communications, Maxis Bhd, Multimedia Synergy Corp, the team of Telekom Malaysia Bhd and Time dotCom Bhd, and YTL Comms — had submitted bids.

Then last October, YTL Comms appeared as the winner of the project, according to a posting on the Ministry of Education’s website. However, the announcement was then taken down a few hours later, according to reports.

News that YTL Comms had been awarded the contract by the government had caused a ripple in the industry. Critics questioned the award of the project, citing vague tender guidelines and YTL Corp’s lack of a track record as a service provider relative to more established industry peers that also submitted bids.

Since then, there has still been no official word on who has gotten the project, although the work has been going on for the past three months.

Regardless, this project would give a boost to YTL Comms, which is aggressively rolling out its Yes 4G WiMAX service. The company launched the service in November 2010 with great fanfare, catching the attention of the industry when YTL announced its partnership with US-based Sezmi Corp. The partnership would allow YTL the rights to deploy a hybrid TV service not just in Malaysia but also in the Asia-Pacific. YTL Comms is also reportedly among winners for the 4G/LTE spectrum, which is due to be rolled out commercially post-2013.

YTL Comms, however, is currently loss-making, according to YTL Power’s latest 4Q results. For the financial period ended Dec 31, YTL Comms recorded a net loss of RM197 million while its top line stood at RM30.6 million. For the previous corresponding period, revenue had stood at RM4.7 million, while net losses had been RM27.7 million.

YTL Power stated in its notes to the announcement: “The continuous growth in its subscriber base has resulted in an increase in the revenue of this segment. However, the losses were mainly attributable to the start-up and fixed operating cost incurred.”

There had also been talk that in order to grow its business, YTL was possibly looking to partner with other telcos. This, however, is not a new occurrence as most of the telcos have been exploring potential partnerships among themselves in order to fully utilise their spectrum and sweat their assets.

YTL, however, has yet to announce any partnership with another telco, but the spokesman is quick to point out that the company has been in discussions with other players.

“YTL Comms is constantly in talks with other players in the industry on a wide range of topics. These topics revolve around the progression of the wireless communications industry in Malaysia and how we can work together to develop strategies that benefit the consumers and the industry as a whole. This is not to say that we have specifically discussed consolidation with any party,” said the company spokesman.

This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, March 13, 2012.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

超越新加坡‧大馬產托前景看俏

(吉隆坡9日訊)大馬產托表現超越新加坡同儕,回酬差距正逐步收窄,分析員看好谷中城產托潛在上市有望進一步提昇市場深度,加上2012年6.8%誘人淨回酬表現,產托領域前景看俏。

馬銀行金英研究認為,2011年大馬產業投資信托(REITs)表現超越新加坡同儕,特別是柏威年產業信托(PAVREIT,5212,主板產業投資信托組)上市後,拉近12月中旬兩國產托回酬差距至29個基本點。

谷中城上市
或提高市場深度

“據悉,怡保花園(IGB,1597,主板產業組)現已聘請投資銀行來進行谷中城產托計劃,有望在2012年首半年上路,我們相信隨著Kris Asset旗下總值28億令吉的谷中城和園中城(The Gardens)上市,可能進一步提高大馬產托的深度和廣度。”

馬銀行指出,多數大馬產托現有負債比低於0.4倍,其中AXIS產業信托(AXREIT,5106,主板產業投資信托組)和嘉德商托(CMMT,5180,主板產業投資信托組)在私下配售後,負債比更將降至0.24倍至0.3倍之間。

“更重要的是,大馬產托經歷2008年全球金融風暴考驗,現多採取積極的資本管理,促使其未來1年再融資風險不高,而強勁的資產負債表更可為擴展提供空間。”

不過,產托的成功關鍵在於維持租戶能力,馬銀行表示,桂嘉資產管理(QCAPITA,5123,主板產業投資信托組)和嘉德商托現有38%和32%租賃更新名列同儕最佳,儘管辦公市場持續受供應過盛影響,但桂嘉仍憑藉積極管理,以及維持與租戶的良好關係,每年仍取得2至3%的租金上調。

“嘉德商托32%租賃更新與綠野購物中心(The Mines)有關,但公司現已取得正面的合約更新進展。”

整體而論,馬銀行認為,在疲憊經濟環境時,工業和策略地點零售產托前景較辦公產托為好,主要是工業產業獲供應有限和長期租約利好扶持,而零售環節雖恐面對租金成長下跌、零售開銷減少等風險,但柏威年產業信托和雙威產業信托(SUNREIT,5176,主板產業投資信托組)等黃金地段購物中心仍是投資者首選。

“我們對辦公領域供過於求情況感到憂慮,數據顯示整體辦公出租率從91%下滑至84%,而租金更是自2010年第四季下滑0.2%,但我們仍看好整體產托市場前景,加上2012年6.8%淨回酬表現,維持領域‘加碼’評級,其中AXIS產業信托(AXREIT,5106,主板產業投資信托組)為投資首選。”(星洲日報/財經)

Miami not yet a big cheer

KUALA LUMPUR: The Genting Group inched closer to getting a casino licence in Miami yesterday morning. The bill that could pave the way for up to three casino-resorts in Florida cleared its first legislative hurdle, despite fervent protest from business bigwigs like Walt Disney Co, which operates the flagship Walt Disney World theme park in Florida.

However, the Florida Senate’s favourable 7-3 vote on the bill included a provision that existing rival “pari-mutuels” (referring to the smaller gaming operators) would be allowed to operate as full casinos at the same 10% tax rate as the new mega-resorts, without needing to make additional investments. Amendments made by the state Senate before passing the bill took out a recommendation that would have required pari-mutuels to invest at least US$125 million (RM394 million) to win a casino permit, according to local media reports.

The amendment on the pari-mutuels, “if it remains part of the measure, could serve as a poison pill to doom the bill”, especially in the gambling-averse House of Representatives, where Representative Erik Fresen had said success hinges on there being a net reduction of predatory gaming in Florida,” The Miami Herald reported on Jan 9. “This is the beginning of the discussion,” the bill’s sponsor, Senator Ellyn Bogdanoff, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying.

It is understood that a final copy of the bill will need to be passed by both the Senate and the House of Representatives before it is signed into law or vetoed by the US President.

Over at the Big Apple, however, Genting seems to be powering ahead, having won the support of New York governor Andrew Cuomo for it to be the state’s partner in a planned US$4 billion, 3.8 million sq ft convention centre cum mixed-use development with up to 3,000 hotel rooms next to its “racino” in Aqueduct, Queens. Last week Cuomo recommended that casino-gaming be legalised in New York, a decision that may give Genting a full-fledged casino licence. As it is, Resorts World New York City (RWNY) can only offer electronic table games and video lottery terminals.

Genting is looking to complete Phase 1 or 2.6 million sq ft of the New York convention centre project, dubbed The New York International Convention and Exhibition Centre, by 2014 with the construction of the hotel rooms to commence in November 2015, the Wall Street Journal reported on Jan 6. No breakdown on the cost for the US$4 billion project has been given thus far.

Vincent Khoo, who heads UOB-KayHian Research in Kuala Lumpur, pointed out that it may take at least a year before Genting Malaysia Bhd knows for certain if it will have a casino licence in Miami, even if the lawmakers approve it as the state would need time to call and evaluate proposals. “Although Genting Malaysia can be re-rated significantly on its chances of securing the highly-coveted casino licences, both New York and Miami are unlikely to issue licences in 2012, bearing in mind that 2012 is an election year,” he said.

Still, Khoo calculates that the potential value accretion to equity “could be almost US$1.3 billion”, hypothetically speaking, given that the Miami property commands a 10 times EV/Ebitda (enterprise value over earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation).

In a note yesterday morning, Khoo wrote that “the potential value creation will be clearly implied by a share price jump”, pointing out that the market capitalisation of Genting Singapore Ltd surged by some S$2 billion (RM4.9 billion) between late-2006 and early-2007, as investors bet on the company clinching the Singapore casino licence.

“However, we have not imputed this potentially sizeable option value into our calculation until more regulatory hurdles are passed in the state of Florida,” Khoo wrote in the note, retaining a “hold” recommendation and RM3.95 target price for Genting Malaysia. “Our entry price is RM3.50 and below,” he told clients. “We expect the share price to remain range-bound given the neutral reactions to the new developments in New York and Miami,” he wrote.

At the current juncture, Khoo prefers parent Genting Bhd to Genting Malaysia. “Genting Bhd is a nearer-term play on the expected good momentum achieved at Resorts World Sentosa (under subsidiary Genting Singapore Plc),” Khoo told The Edge Financial Daily, noting the peak seasonal boost in 4Q2011 and 1Q2012 as well as the potential positive effect of the recently added VIP room capacity. UOB-KayHian has a “buy” call and RM12.24 target price for Genting Bhd, which “ultimately benefits from the group’s foray into the US market”.

TA Investment Management chief investment officer Choo Swee Kee also prefers Genting Bhd, which benefits from having multiple income streams, including that from Singapore. However, Choo is not too positive on the UK operations, under Genting Malaysia, as return on investments is still low at this point.

Choo isn’t overly concerned about the Genting group’s big headline investment numbers in the US, for which specific spending timelines and near-term cash needs have yet to be specified. “At this point, we don’t know whether a cash call is necessary, but it is possible”.

Nonetheless, Choo, whose fund holds Genting Bhd shares, thinks “Genting Bhd is a buy for [future] growth”. “Sometimes when you need to grow, you need to take some risk (and) without which, there would not be growth,” he said, also noting that there “will be value in the [casino] licences”.

In any case, UOB-KayHian’s Khoo pointed out that Genting Malaysia, which generates some RM1.6 billion free cash flow a year, “would be able to secure substantial debt financing at favourable terms”, should additional capital needs arise.

Genting Malaysia traded between RM3.85 and RM3.90 before resting at RM3.88 yesterday, down three sen or 0.77%, while Genting Bhd rose to as high as RM11.16 before closing at its day’s low of RM10.90, down 24 sen or 2.15%.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, January 11, 2012.

Sunday, January 8, 2012

Genting hits US jackpot?

Written by Cindy Yeap
Friday, 06 January 2012 12:19

KUALA LUMPUR: With yesterday’s announcement of the proposed expansion of the Resorts World New York (RWNY), Malaysia’s Genting Group appears to have won the support of New York governor Andrew Cuomo to build the largest convention centre in the US, a project that may come with a full-fledged casino licence.

Expected to cost US$4 billion (RM12.56 billion), the proposed integrated mixed-use development would expand RWNY and includes 3.8 million sq ft of convention and exhibition centre with up to 3,000 hotel rooms.

As it is, RWNY, which opened Oct 28 last year, is something of a “virtual casino”, offering only video slot machines and electronic table games via an arrangement with New York Racing Association which operates the Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens. Hence, RWNY is also known as a “racino”.

In the State of the State address where Cuomo delivered a blueprint for rebuilding New York on Wednesday, he announced the intention to make the state the No 1 convention
site in the nation with the proposed expansion at Aqueduct.

Cuomo, who is reportedly in favour of legalising casino gambling to generate new revenue for New York state as well as create more jobs, also said New Yorkers could also approve a constitutional amendment to have Atlantic City-styled casinos outside Indian reserve land.

“Let’s amend the constitution so that we can do gaming right,” he said in the speech, pointing out that over US$1 billion of economic activity could be generated from gaming within the state.

While Genting was named as the partner for the convention centre in the speech, Cuomo did not specify who would be granted a full-fledged casino licence if such amendments
were made.

In a statement to Bursa Malaysia yesterday yesterday, Genting Malaysia said wholly-owned unit Genting New York LLC (Genting NY) had on Tuesday entered into a non-binding
agreement with the New York State Urban Development Corp for the proposed development, and would work closely with the latter’s business entity, Empire State Development
Corp, to have a binding agreement by Nov 30 this year.

The proposed project will replace The Jacob Javits Convention Centre on Manhattan’s West Side and reportedly will be larger than Chicago’s McCormick Place, currently the largest convention centre in the US. The 18-acre Javits Centre site will become a mixed used facility to revitalise New York City’s West Side.

Genting Malaysia shares rose to a one-month high of RM3.93 intra-day after the news before closing at RM3.89 yesterday, up one sen or 0.26%. Its parent, Genting Bhd, rose to RM11.18 intraday, but ended unchanged at RM11.14 while Genting Singapore shed three cents or 1.9% to S$1.53 (RM3.73) yesterday.

Genting owns about 54% of Genting Singapore Ltd, 48.3% of Genting Malaysia and 18% of Genting Hong Kong Ltd, which houses Resorts World Manila.

It remains to be seen if Genting will get similar support in Florida, where the group has announced plans for a US$3.8 billion bayfront Resorts World Miami, complete with hotels, convention space, retail and recreational space, but is missing a casino licence.

Florida lawmakers are slated to discuss a gaming bill that could pave the way for the award of up to three casino-resort licences on Monday afternoon, according to the Senate session calendar.

Genting officials have won some local support with its promise of bigger revenue streams and higher job creation for Miami, but faces opposition from bigwigs like Florida’s

Orlando-based Walt Disney Co, as well as other community groups who still see casinos as a vice-filled industry linked to thug-like debt-collectors, prostitution and money laundering.

Clearly, the US — where there are some 23 million able but jobless workers — is quickly turning out to be an increasingly sizeable market for the Genting group as well as controlling owners, the Lim family, who through their private vehicle Kien Huat Realty Sdn Bhd, is among pioneer investors in Indian tribal gaming.

Coupled with the over US$580 million Genting has already spent on RWNY so far, the US$4 billion planned expansion, will match the US$4.7 billion that Genting has invested in Resorts World Singapore, the group’s biggest investment thus far.

In Britain, where Genting Malaysia via Genting UK is already the largest casino operator, works are underway for a £120 million (RM586.31 million) Resorts World @ NEC in Birmingham that could be ready by late-2013 or early-2014.

At the time of writing, Genting had not provided a timeline for the US$4 billion potential capital expenditure (capex) in New York. For Miami, the US$3.8 billion planned capex is over a period of 10 years, and will be spent faster if it gets a casino licence.

Prior to the latest US$4 billion planned capex for New York, analysts had estimated that the existing RWNY “racino” could potentially shore up Genting Malaysia’s annual earnings by 10% with the UK operations possibly giving another 5% boost.

Melvyn Boey, who heads Southeast Asia research for Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BoA-ML) in Singapore, said he wouldn’t be overly concerned over Genting’s expansion moves for as long as its balance sheet can support debt levels.

“I’d only worry if net gearing goes above 50% and stays at that level,” Boey told The Edge Financial Daily in a recent interview.

Boey calculates that Genting Highlands in Malaysia generates “easily RM1 billion free cash flow (FCF) a year, with very little capital expenditure requirement”.

He also sees Genting Singapore steadily generating about S$1.5 billion FCF a year from FY13. “In FY12, the number is already S$1.3 billion and that will grow as capex tapers off,” said Boey, who has tracked Genting since the 1990s.

Even so, details on its planned capex would likely allay any concerns investors may have. Even as capex tapers off across the causeway, talks are that Genting Singapore is looking to invest some of its newly minted cash in Japan, where gaming laws may be liberalised to aid the economy.

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Masterskill stake for sale?

The controlling block of shares attracts at least two parties

PETALING JAYA: A controlling block of shares in Masterskill Education Group Bhd may be up for sale with at least two parties said to be interested.

Sources said the block of shares up for sale could come from existing major shareholders who are interested in having a strong, strategic partner come into Masterskill.

Among the interested parties are said to be a government-linked fund, which has a presence in healthcare and would like to extend the education aspect of that sector. Another party is said to be large education group.

The top substantial shareholders of Masterskill are founder Datuk Seri Edmund Santhara with 22.1%, private equity firm Crescent Point with 21.5% and Siva Kumar Jeyapalan with a 10% stake.
Endless woes: Masterskill is facing low student enrolment arising from the higher nursing minimum entry requirements

Heavy trading volume was seen recently after the emergence of Siva as a substantial shareholder of the education group, following his acquisition of 41.2 million shares, or a 10.05% stake on Oct 5.

When contacted, Siva downplayed any likelihood of a sale and only said he would consider to exit the group if the price offered is comfortable for him.

“I acquired the shares from the open market and I believe in the business and the opportunities it present, which is worth more than what it is trading at right now,” he said.

He also expressed his disappointment at the group's recently announced quarterly results.

“To be very blunt, I am not happy with the results. The board needs to buck up and I have made known my concerns to the board,” he said.

Masterskill's third quarter ended Sept 30, 2011 saw its net profit plunging by a significant 78% year-on-year to RM5.5mil from RM26.18mil. Revenue shrank by 24% to RM61.2mil. It stated that part of the reasons for the declining numbers was weak student intakes.

Masterskill has been faced with low student enrolment arising from the higher nursing minimum entry requirements, coupled with a shift in industry trend whereby fewer students are pursuing diploma courses in private education institutions.

There seems to be no end to Masterskill's woes as the group was dealt with another setback when the National Higher Education Fund proposed to reduce loans for students studying at high educational institutions.

Before Masterskill was listed, Siva was the founding member of the group before he sold his stake to Crescent Point back in 2006.

Meanwhile, Edmund could not be reached for comment.

The stock has fallen sharply from its IPO price of RM3.80 in May last year, and reached an all-time low of RM1.06 on Oct 3.

The counter is currently trading near its all-time low at RM1.09 and at a price to earnings ratio of only 5.79 times.

It was speculated last year that Crescent Point was looking to sell their stake in Masterskill in a deal that could fetch more than US$200mil.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Now you and I can also be an independent power producer

Households as clean, sustainable electricity producers?

In the mid-1990s, there were only “big” boys in electricity generation such as YTL Corp, Genting Sanyen and Malakoff. They were popularly known as Independent Power producers' or IPPs and were looked upon with envy as it was alleged that they were making big bucks because of relatively high rates they received from TNB.

Fast forward 15 years. Now you and I can also be an IPP (the term “clean and sustainable electricity producer” is preferred) albeit a very much smaller one but with a difference.

Any owner of a link, semi-detached or bungalow house can now be, subject to approval, a small clean and sustainable energy producer by generating green electricity (as opposed to fossil-fuelled electricity by the big IPPs) and distribution licensee (such as TNB) is obliged to purchase it. What all this means is that if you have a solar photovoltaic (PV) generator at home, you can apply to connect this generator to the grid, and get paid for selling the electricity generated to TNB over the next 21 years.

Solar energy is clean, environmentally friendly and has zero emissions. There is no depletion of natural resources and it is one of the fastest growing energy sources in the world.

And yes the rates are very attractive for generating electricity using solar photovoltaic (PV) technology; it is about four times the normal domestic TNB electricity rates (at RM0.40 per kWh). All you have to do is simply to apply and obtain a feed-in approval from the newly-established Sustainable Energy Development Authority Malaysia (Seda Malaysia), sign a renewable energy power purchase agreement (REPPA) with TNB and install the solar PV system on your rooftop.

On the average, the bungalow is able to produce about 1,000 kWh of electricity per month (based on 10kW installed PV capacity). Given this, the owner may earn about RM1,200 per month (based on FiT rate RM1.20 per kWh if the PV system is commissioned by 2012) and recoup his investment within eight to nine years. The earnings may be even higher if the house owner meets other bonus criteria such as installing as a building-integrated PV system. The current cost of 1 kW solar PV system ranges from RM12,000 to RM14,000.

The interesting thing is that for your average household needs, you purchase the electricity from TNB at between RM0.33 to 42.6 per kWh but when you produce the clean electricity, you can sell it at between RM1.20 to RM1.70 per kWh depending on the installed capacity and the qualifying bonus criteria for solar PV.

The longer the sun shines, the more one can “export” electricity to the national grid during daylight hours (when power is urgently needed) and earn income. The downside and risk is that during cloudy days, the income can be reduced significantly when the sun is not shining. If you apply now, you can lock in these premium rates for the next 21 years!

Unlike the huge IPPs which use natural gas or coal as feedstock to generate electricity, the household does not need to pay for any raw material or fuel because sunshine is free. For as long as the sun is shining, the solar PV panels will generate electricity. Another advantage of solar power is that no extra space is required because the panels can be installed on the rooftop. (Suddenly rooftops have income potential. Many factory owners are now contemplating installing solar PV panels on their rooftop to earn extra revenue while others are approaching factory owners to rent them their roofs.)

On Dec 1 2011, Seda Malaysia invited the public including households, small and not-so-big IPPs (maximum size is 30 MW but only 5 MWp rated capacity for solar PV) to apply and book the amount of green electricity they intended to produce to sell it to the distribution licensee. There are fixed quotas for each of the four renewable energy sources namely biomass (including solid waste), biogas (including landfill), small hydro and solar PV. There was overwhelming response to solar PV especially for the non-individuals.

The good news is that bookings are still open for individuals and households intending to install solar PV systems as there is still available capacity for this category. As at Dec 7, Seda reported that the total unfulfilled quota for solar PV is 6,650 kW; 1,650 kW to be commissioned by the first half 2013, 2500 kW each for second half of 2013 and first half of 2014.

Translating these figures into households, it would mean that about 665 bungalow owners can avail themselves to the remaining capacity (assuming their average capacity is 10 kW). If all of the remaining capacity is taken up by semi-detached owners, the number will increase to 1,330 assuming their installed PV capacity is 5 kW. The figure for typical link houses, assuming an installed capacity of 3 kW, is 2,217 households.

The price guarantee for 21 years has been made possible by the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) scheme implemented by Seda Malaysia. This scheme will be financed by the newly-established Renewable Energy (RE) Fund, to which all electricity users (except for those domestic customers consuming less than 300 kWh per month) will be required to contribute an additional 1% of their electricity bill.

House-owners who do not participate in solar PV electricity generation should not begrudge the payment of the additional 1%. Instead they should view it as one of their contributions to a cleaner and healthier environment. This is their social contribution for cleaner air. The public and community must also share in undertaking this heavy responsibility with the Government.

Dr Pola Singh is a board member of the Sustainable Energy Development Authority (Seda), Malaysia. The views expressed are his own. The public can apply for the feed-in approval via efit.seda.gov.my and more information can be obtained from Seda's official portal at www.seda.gov.my


Monday, December 12, 2011

分享锦集:从零和到正和

Dec 9th, 2011 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集

这些年来,我不断摸索,想从投资理论的探讨,到实际投资经验的印证,找出一条较有把握的股市赚钱之路。

我说“较有把握”,是因为只要做到赚多亏少,对多错少,就可以达到累积财富的终极目标。

到目前为止,十全十美的投资秘诀,根本还没人找到。

这就是我写《败在心术不正》和《投资之道,利人利己》的目的。

这两篇文章刊出后,引来了一些闲言闲语,很明显的,有些读者对这两篇文章有些误解,误解源自:

1.断章取义,尤其是对《败在心术不正》。

2.把两篇文章孤立阅读。

这两篇文章其实是有连续性的,《败在心术不正》是从消极的角度,提醒大家避免掉进陷阱;《投资之道,利人利己》是从积极的角度,希望大家循正道投资,长期创富。

最明显的误会,是大家以为我把“低买高卖”,视为“骗人”的行为,这根本不是我的原意。

文中的例子已讲得很清楚,将只值得2令吉的股票,推高到10令吉,最后遭殃的必然是无知的散户,“把没有价值的股票推高,然后脱售给无知的散户,是损人利己的行为”(原文),形容这种“低买高卖”方式是“骗人”的行为,过份吗?

低买高卖,是一切商业赚钱的正当途径,我即使再无知,也不会幼稚到视低买高卖为“骗人”的行为。

以2令吉买进一只每股净利30仙的股票,当有关公司的每股净利增至40仙时,股价跟着上涨至3令吉,你赚了1令吉,这是绝对正常和正当的,股票原本就是应该这样投资的。

损人利己

但是,一只长期亏蚀,股价一向在10仙左右浮沉的垃圾股,由于人为的因素,短期内暴涨至1令吉以上,过后炒家饱食远飏,股价暴跌至一、二十仙,使无知的散户,血本无归,你同意不同意这是损人利己的行为?

我所指的“低买高卖”,是这一类的低买高卖行为。

这种一方得利,就必有另一方损失的做法,就是“零和游戏”。

股票投资的终极目标是累积财富,只有通过正当的经营手法,长期投资,才有可能创富,投机是零和游戏,很难创富。

只有将“零和”转化为“正和”,才能创富。

什么是“正和游戏”?

举一个例子:星狮(F&N)在2001年时,每股净赚23.6仙,股价为3令吉,到2005年时每股净赚37仙,股价涨至6令吉;到2010年时,每股净利涨至195.1仙,股价涨至16令吉。

由2001年至2010年,星狮的股价虽有起落,但10年都保持上升的趋势,而此种升势,是星狮的每股净利,每年都上升造成的。

有赚没亏

投资者在10年中的任何一年,以任何的价格买进该公司的股票,紧握不放,到现在都是有赚没亏,没有任何一人蒙受亏损。

投资于星狮,就是“正和游戏”。

其他投资于大众银行、健力士、安裕、吉隆甲洞、联合种植、IOI、安利、雀巢、DIGI、QL、顶级手套、云顶等好股的投资者,以10年为期,无论以何价买进,都无人亏本,他们有一个共同点,都是靠公司盈利继续上升而赚到钱。

在这10年中,这些公司的股价,也是跟着股市波动,每个投资者的买进价格都不同,但都赚了钱,这就是典型的“正和游戏”。

假如你检视一些业绩不断走下坡的公司的话,你会发现,现在的股价,反而比10年前更低,投资者如果投资于这类股票而赚到钱的话,他们所赚的,是来自别的投资者的损失,与公司的业绩无关,这就是“零和游戏”。

轻松赚钱

采取“正和游戏”投资法,你可以:轻轻松松投资,快快乐乐赚钱,悠悠闲闲过话。

采取“零和游戏”投资法,你会:烦烦恼恼投机,忧忧虑虑赚钱,提心吊胆过活。

你现在所过的是那一种投资生涯?所用的是那一种投资法?请自我检讨吧!

本周建议研究股项

常青油棕(Rsawit,5113,主板种植股)

资料搜寻及导读
1. 开电脑,进入www.bursamalaysia.com。
2. 点击Listed Companies。
3. 点击Prospectus。
4. 点击By Company。
5. 点击R,找出Rimbunan Sawit Berhad。
6. 点击及下载26/09/2011发表的附加股说明书(Abridged Prospectus);详读这份178页的说明书,这是了解常青油棕和大马油棕业的最有用资料。
7. 请特别注意说明书第5.32页(在第13页)“该集团的展望及将来的计划”(Prospects and future plans of our group),你可
以在这里找到该集团的地库、种植面积、每公顷产量、树龄及未来三年的种植计划。
这些都是你评估该股价值的最重要资料。
(请参考拙作《30年股票投资心得》一书第161页“怎样评估种植股”)。
8. 常青油棕最近完成发附加股和红股,11月21日发表的到9月30日为止的第三季季报,来不及反映发红股和附加股后的情况,所以我建议不要过份重视第三季季报,而以《附加股说明书》的资料为评估根据。

思考重点

The Edge报道常青油棕将成为常青集团的油棕业旗舰公司,是否如此,你可以在《附加股说明书》第5.3项中找到答案。

特别声明

本栏旨在协助读者研究种植股,所提股票,是作为研究的范本,并非推荐购买。笔者可能拥有也可能没有拥有有关股票。

提示

买种植股就是买土地,地价有起没落,故种植股是稳当的投资。

林國泰:博奕結合休閑‧雲頂營業多元化

大馬財經 財經焦點 2011-12-12 18:30

(吉隆坡12日訊)雲頂(GENTING,3182,主板貿服組)擬斥資38億美元(約120億令吉)在美國邁阿密興建全球最大賭場兼休閒勝地,這項計劃舉世矚目,卻也令市場人士擔心,這項計劃可能引來一些爭議,特別是賭場往往與“偏門收入”聯繫在一起,其所造成的社會與經濟影響效應,能否超越博奕收入所產生的經濟效益,確實讓人關注。

雲頂主席兼首席執行員丹斯里林國泰表示,他有信心將亞洲的成功模式轉移到海外其他地方。該公司在新加坡經營47億新元(約115億令吉)的賭場兼度假勝地“聖淘沙名勝世界”,手上也擁有充裕的現金,可以在現金緊張的美國市場派上用場,況且美國政府正探討減少失業率、降低國家財政開銷等方案,為雲頂的擴張計劃減少擋路石。

林國泰認為,賭場結合有益身心的度假勝地,是比較理想的業務組合,不論是從金融或政治的層面來看,這不純粹只是博奕而已。

“如果只是為了賺錢,我們不會為了這個目的扼殺自己的前程。”

雲頂集團在大馬、新加坡及紐約擁有資產,主要圍繞在主題公園及度假勝地,賭場只是另一個吸引遊客的賣點。

林國泰表示,雲頂集團的經營方式也像家庭企業,他宣稱,員工不太常摩擦,部份原因是他們的就業環境不錯、工資也相當有競爭力。

林國泰(簡稱林)日前在新加坡接受《華爾街日報》(簡稱華)專訪,以下是訪談內容摘錄:

華:雲頂集團正把業務擴展至亞洲以外地區,你認為是否能將亞洲的成功模式複制,然後搬到美國的邁阿密市場?

林:當然可以,而且相信會成功。我們指的是邁阿密,不是擁有30個賭場的拉斯維加斯,邁阿密是一個世界級大都會,假如你準備前往南美洲,轉換班機的地方會是邁阿密,歐洲人也經常前往邁阿密經商與度假。邁阿密是一個中心點,比較不足的是缺乏與亞洲的聯繫,如果能將邁阿密與亞洲聯繫在一起,我認為那將會是一個令人雀躍的地方。

為博奕事業增添休閑概念

華:你對經營賭場的概念,如何與一般人認為的抽雪茄、飲酒的賭場區分?

林:在西方世界,他們將博奕視為賭博,在亞洲,博奕的發展,不單單只是賭博,也許西方市場在開始有關行業時純粹是賭博;可是,在亞洲並非如此,博奕的發展提供不少就業機會,也能讓一家人前來度假、消遣,這並沒有甚麼不妥。

我們從休閒的角度發展博奕,提供人們選擇的空間,他們可以到賭場或度假勝地消遣,而不一定只是吸引賭客,他們可以自己定位。以雲頂集團來說,當我們投資博奕,需要的是額外的元素如家庭休閒,我們認為可以帶給當地社區、甚至是一個國家最大的利益。

華:與博彩背道而馳的家庭消遣概念,如何從雲頂集團衍生而來?

林:在大馬的熱帶氣候,英國人習慣到高原勝地避暑,以遠離熱帶炎熱的氣候。何不讓亞洲人也帶他們的家人一起來度假?這就是雲頂集團當年開始發展高原勝地的推動因素,那時腦海里並沒有閃過單單經營博奕務的念頭。

不過,在時任首相的倡議之下,為加速推動大馬的經濟發展,需要更多的投資、興建更多的大型設備、塑造更多就業機會,進而推動經濟成長,這就是大馬經濟成功的過程。先父林梧桐的成功事蹟,也是許多人認為大馬成功的實例。

數字不是最重要的

華:你是否花相當多的時間在公司每日的運作、或比較多監督式的管理?

林:對我來說,數字不是最主要的,身為集團領導人,我要兼顧的是數字以外的東西,集團的經營理念儘量簡單,我們要顧及的是共同目標,好比一支足球隊,每個人扮演不同的角色,假如每個人是進攻者,這樣就不大好。

我儘量確保大家工作開心,不讓他們認為那是朝九晚五的工作,沒有他們,我也動不了,這是我看待本身角色的重點,如果你問我複雜的管理決策,坦白說,我沒有。

華:一些亞洲國家,包括新加坡,嘗試限制博奕活動在遊客範圍,而不鼓勵自己的人民前往賭場,請問:政府的條規是否妨礙你們業務的發展?

林:我不認同“只供外國人”的策略,這樣等於是單程交通,凡事必須互惠互利,你不希望只來賭博的遊客,而是期待打造一個可讓遊客感到舒適的地方,同時可讓他們瞭解你的國家。

把僱員當成一家人

華:你如何看待僱員對公司的滿意度,有助於企業的成功?

林:對我們的僱員,我們是以大家庭成員來看待他們,我們希望他們感到舒適、開心。譬如,在郵輪上,我們面對工作准證限制的情況不多,那是一個學習交易的平台。我們尊重本身的員工,他們不需要填寫一大堆表格或是蓋上手印,如果受到類似刑事犯的對待,那不是他們準備面對的情況。基於國家保安考量,我的方案是:要當一名負責任、讓工人信服的僱主,如果工人開心,他們也不會做錯事。(星洲日報/財經)


Rights issues by REITs a tough sell?

Written by Chua Sue-Ann
Monday, 12 December 2011 11:26

KUALA LUMPUR: It remains to see whether investors will warm up to recent proposals by Malaysian real estate investment trusts (REITs) to embark on rights issues for fundraising.

This comes as Hektar REIT and AmFirst REIT separately proposed rights issues in recent months. The former is doing so to fund new asset acquisition while the latter is seeking to reduce its bank borrowings. CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust (CMT) also recently told The Edge Financial Daily that it is considering a rights issue to raise fresh capital.

Analysts and market observers said it is generally undesirable for REITs to embark on rights issues as investors expect dividends from REITs instead of having to plough in more capital.

“Effectively, they are asking investors to spend more on their stock in these uncertain market conditions,” said a property analyst.

However, judging from the price performance of both Hektar REIT and AmFirst REIT, investors have not reacted negatively to the news. This, surprisingly, is in contrast to investors’ harsh treatment of Singapore-listed REITs that embarked on rights issues.

According to analysts, the reason why Malaysian REITs are now turning to rights issues to raise funds, instead of the usual way of borrowing or unit placement, could be because their gearing is already near the 50% threshold (of total asset value) permitted for a REIT to borrow, or that the capital they seek to raise is larger than what can be achieved with a placement exercise.

In Hektar REIT’s case, its gearing ratio is 43.4%, just below the 50% limit, based on its total debt of RM347 million and total assets of RM799.47 million as at Sept 30. AmFirst’s REIT’s gearing as at Sept 30 was 39.8% based on total borrowings of RM419.6 million and total assets of RM1.053 billion.

On Dec 8, Hektar REIT proposed a renounceable rights issue to raise gross proceeds of about RM98.4 million. Proceeds from the rights issue will be used to partially fund the acquisition of two shopping malls in Kedah for RM181 million cash.

Hektar REIT added that it would also obtain bank borrowings of up to RM87.1 million to purchase the assets. Note that it held cash and cash equivalents of RM21.3 million as at Sept 30.

The REIT has yet to finalise the actual number of rights units and entitlement basis will be determined later based on the final issue price of the rights unit.
Hektar REIT added that it will procure a written irrevocable undertaking from its substantial unitholders to fully subscribe for their entitlements, failing which underwriting arrangements would be made.

AmFirst REIT’s proposed rights issue, set on a three-for-five basis, is expected to raise gross proceeds of about RM218.8 million, based on an illustrative issue price of 85 sen per unit. The proceeds are to be used to pare down borrowings.
CapitalMalls Malaysia Trust, which also manages
The Mines shopping mall, recently said it is also
considering a rights issue to raise fresh capital.

AmFirst said the rights unit issue price is expected to be fixed at a discount of no more than 20% to the theoretical ex-rights price of the unit. “The discount on the issue price of the rights unit is intended to reward unitholders for their continuous support of the fund,” AmFirst said.

Thus far, investors have not reacted negatively to the REITs proposal to conduct rights issues. The unit prices of both Hektar REIT and AmFirst REIT are still traded near their peaks.

“It could be because the unit prices are currently near historical highs, and more interestingly, at the current high prices they still offer rather good yields as well [Hektar REIT at 7.6% and AmFirst at 8.6% historical yield], so unitholders are happy,” said a market observer.

Other than that, he explained that there is still strong demand for REITS in times of market volatility, especially among institutional shareholders.
“Pavilion REIT has gained 13.6% since last week’s IPO to RM1, and the yield is now only 5.7%. So, the management of REITs thought maybe a rights issue is a good idea,” he said.

The scenario is different in Singapore.

K-REIT Asia, a unit of the Keppel Land group, saw its unit priced plunge 9.7% to S$0.857 sen on Oct 18 after it announced plans to raise S$976.3 million (RM2.4 billion) through a 17-for-20 rights issue. Most of the funds raised by the REIT will be used to buy a 87.5% stake in Ocean Financial Centre (OFC) from its parent Keppel Land Ltd.

It was reported that investors didn’t like the pricing for the OFC deal, and the fact that it was a related party deal. It wasn’t entirely because K-REIT Asia had proposed to acquire it via rights issue funding.

“At the end of the day, REIT managements have to justify why they have to do a rights issue to ask for more money from the unitholders. While institutional shareholders are okay with a rights issue, it could be a turn-off for minority shareholders,” said a market observer.


Wednesday, December 7, 2011

分享锦集:慎防仙股昙花一现

Dec 2nd, 2011 | By 冷眼 | Category: 分享锦集

最近一些仙股,“时来铁似金”,大涨特涨,尤其是丰升工业,在短短的一个月内,暴涨了20多倍。

在欧债阴影下,这一年来,要在股市赚钱,难之又难,而竟有人能在一个月内“赚一、两千巴仙”,这种眼光,这种本领,实在令人瞠目结舌。

于是有人洋洋得意,因为他找到了“将基本派击败”的最有力证据。

“单凭敏锐的技术判断能力”,使广大的股民“苦追十年,也还是被远远抛在后头”。

难怪他对这些“月赚一、两千巴仙”的股市奇才,一赞三叹,佩服到五体投地,并且推波助澜,助长投机之风,而对那些殚精竭虑,平均每年要取得10多巴仙的复利回报,也感到非常吃力的价值投资者,如巴菲特之徒,“嗤之以鼻”,极尽讥讽贬斥之能事。

我承认,我没有“月赚一、两千巴仙”的“眼光”。

在我40年的投资生涯中,在开始的几年,也的确发过“月赚一、两千巴仙”的白日梦,但在接下来的30多年中,已彻底放弃了这种幻想,这个“放弃”是在深思熟虑之后作出的,理由为:

1. 没猜测的本领

大马上市公司近1000家,在过去一、二十年中,似乎只有区区的3几家{如利高控股(REPCO),华大食品(Hwatai,8478,主板消费产品股),艾力斯(Iris,0010,自动报价股) }有在极短时间内被推高(我不想用“炒高“的字眼,因为没有证据)二、三十倍的纪录,我“猜”中那一只股票会被推高的机会为千份之一,我没有这种猜中的 “眼光”和本领。

2. 不买不了解的股

作为坚定不移的价值投资者,我信守不渝的原则为“不了解,我不买”。身为局外人的散户之一,我没有洞悉先机的能耐和机会,所以一向不敢买。

3. 没赚取暴利的胆识

我没有赚取暴利的胆识,如果我侥幸以10仙买到一只价值20仙的仙股,即使涨到20仙时不卖,到了30仙时肯定抛出,抛出后就不再回头。由30仙到 2令吉的这一段丰厚的利润,我永远赚不到,我有自知之明,所以从不后悔卖得太早。对于那些“月赚一、两千巴仙”的人的眼光,赞叹是有的,更多的是祝福,从来没有“酸葡萄”的感觉,从来没有!

4. 只信事实 不信预测

我有“只相信事实,不相信预测,更不相信传言”的习惯,这个“坏”习惯使我失去许多获取如丰外般的暴利的机会,但也使我避过了更多的陷阱,而这正是我在股市40年不倒的最主要原因。

5. 赚20倍利润股民绝无仅有

丰升由10仙暴涨至2令吉以上,涨了20多倍,我没有确实数字佐证,但我相信,除了局内人之外,能赚尽20倍利润的股民,恐怕绝无仅有,相信(只是相信)大部份股民是在丰升涨了数倍以后才胆粗粗的上车,上车后就心惊胆跳在取得两、三倍的利润(只是猜测)以后就跳车而逃,所以,能赚20倍的人恐怕少之又少。

6. 年复利回酬15%

如果在一个30只股票组成的投资(或投机)组合中,丰升只是其中之一,即使取得数倍的利润,对整个组合的业绩贡献,其实并不大。我的投资理念是,宁可30只股票每年都取得15%的复利回酬,不敢期望在10年中才抓到一次赚20倍利润股票机会,何况这样的机会只有千分之一。

7. 陷困公司被救成功巴仙率低

我读了40多年的年报和公司文告,从未中断,我所得到的印象是:陷困公司被救,成功的巴仙率很低,大部份都是重陷泥淖。1998年东南亚货币风暴后,100多家公司陷入PN4,请问被救活而如今有资格被称为“好股”的有多少家?

8. 股票投资是马拉松

如果一名股民,只动用他的一小部份资金,例如五十分之一,购买高风险投机股,即使赚了数倍,甚至10倍,也起不了作用。如果他胆大包天,孤注一掷,后果当然是不成功,便成仁。如果他一击中的,就从此金盘洗手的话,我恭喜他,因为他的确赚到了别人“苦追10年”也无法赚到的盈利,如果他尝到甜头,以为 “月赚一、两千巴仙”是轻而易举的事;继续大胆投机,那么,他最终必然在股市消失。股票投资是马拉松,不是短跑可以成功的。

没有十全十美投资法

我一向不喜欢吃酸溜溜的东西,所以从不知酸葡萄为何物。只有爱吃酸喝醋的人,才会以小人之心,度君子之腹,以为别人也嗜吃酸葡萄,吃酸葡萄,是心胸狭窄的表现,股市机会多得是,又何必失去一个机会就耿耿于怀呢?

身为散户,我们要养成别人赚钱我们高兴的心态,因为于他有利,于我无损啦,又何必眼红他人赚钱?更何况有些钱是我们散户根本赚不到的。

我不知说过多少次,股民如武林中人,武林中人只要有一种武器练到炉火纯青的地步,就可以成为武林高手。

股票投资之道亦如此,每一种方法都有其优点和缺点,十全十美的投资法,根本就不存在。

投资者如果能掌握其中一种,达到精熟的地步,能长期为你赚钱!你已经找到了最适合你的方法,你已经走对了路,不可轻易放弃,更不可见异思迁。

相辅相成时代

现在是各类学说相辅相成的时代,为什么还要分帮立派?中西医结合已成为中国大陆医学的主流,为什么还要有贬中医,尊西医,或是贬西医,尊中医的狭隘思想呢?硬为基本派与图表派划清路线,企图使两派互相排挤,这种挑拨离间的人,其居心之阴险,令人心寒。

据我所知,现在大部份投资机构,都是基本面和图表并用的,只不过有些以基本面为主,图表为辅或是图表为主,基本面为辅而已。纯粹的基本面和图表派已不多,那些对基本面或图表派有偏见,“嗤之以鼻”的投资者很难成大器。

股票研究,资料浩如烟海,我们要有海纳百川,虚怀若谷的胸襟。

不为自己设限

我出版了3本书,也写专栏,与股友分享心得。我有自己的立场,但从来没有贬低别人,抬高自己的念头。当“股票投资正道”面世后,我的出版商告诉我,一个从事股票投资教育的组织,特别购买了一批,分售给学员,我由衷的钦佩他们“海纳百川”的襟怀。

我不认识李永安先生,但当他的著作“稳赚大马股市”出版时,我马上买了一本,不但细读,还将可以借镜的句子划线,以方便温习。如果我持有同行如敌国的想法的话,我已为自己设限,永远在原地踏步,不会有进步,最后损失的不是别人,而是我自己。

我不想淌追逐仙股这一浑水。每个人都有选择投资方式的自由,别人没有干涉的权利,毕竟盈亏都由投资者自己负责,与别人无关。我何人哉?有何资格论是议非?

身为股票研究人,我只想提醒股友:慎防追逐仙股之风,昙花一现。股票交易所采取防范措施,也无非是希望避免股民遭殃!

本周建议研究股项

移动媒体(MMode,0059,创业板)

资料搜寻及应用
① 开电脑,进入www.BURSA MALAYSIA.com
② 点击LISTED COMPANIES
③ 点击Company Announcements-Historical
④ 点击By Company
⑤ 点击m,找出mo-MODE BHD(创业版ACE)
⑥ 找出该公司2007至2011年的每一个季度的每股净利(EPS),你会发现该公司由2007至2010年,盈利平稳上升,由2011年首季开始,盈利有突破性进展。首季每股净利1.97仙,次季2.34仙,第3季2.46仙,3季已赚6.78仙,是上一年全年1.99仙的3.4倍。(见 10/11/2011发表的第3季季报)。
⑦ 根据第3季季报资产负债表,该公司在今年9月30日时持有现金1814万6000令吉,负债320万4000令吉(其中284万1000令吉为长期负债)。资本为1588万4000令吉。
⑧ 正如其中文公司名称所显示的,该公司是移动电话电讯出版商,跟报纸是印刷出版商的业务性质相似,只不过是该公司以电讯电话为载体,而报纸是以纸上印刷为载体而已。
⑨ 该公司目前的股价为39仙,股友不妨假设该公司第4季的盈利与第3季不相上下,而推算该公司本财务年的全年每股净利有多少,然后算出其预期本益比(PER),再跟创业版其他类似公司(如A MEDIA)的预期本益比相比,以估算该公司股票的合理价格。

忠言

股票投资,需亲力亲为,不可假手于人。别人的推荐,可以作为参考,不可全盘照收,因为投资失败,与推荐者无关,推荐者无切肤之痛,故推荐之前往往没有作深入周密的思考。

特别声明

本栏旨在帮助投资者自己做功课,所提股票,只是作为实习的例子,并非推荐购买。笔者可能拥有,也可能没有拥有有关股票。